The Impacts of International Sport Events:Case Studies of Two Hungarian Cities,Gyor and Székesfehérvár

After the period between 1998 and 2002, sport has again and continuously been considered as a priority strategicsector in Hungary since the year 2010. Hungary has demonstrated remarkable performance in organisinginternational sport events. The FINA World Championships and the European Youth Olympic Festival, both heldin 2017, as well as the annual GyulaiIstván Memorial Athletics Hungarian Grand Prix have profound worldwidesignificance. The objective of the study is to give an insight into how the two host cities （Gyor and Székesfehérvár）and their residents perceive these international sport events and their impacts in Hungary.

The impact analysis of policy events on China's carbon market

This paper interrogates the impact of policy events on the efficiency of carbon market in China.The analysis covers five piloting emission trading schemes(Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong,Shenzhen and Hubei), particularly focusing on Guangdong pilot for its weak form efficiency and the richness of policy events. Twenty-five policy events between 2014 and 2016 are categorized into seven groups. The efficiency test indicates that only Guangdong ETS has reached weak form efficiency. After exploring the policy events occurred in Guangdong ETS, it finds that although a clear long-term climate policy has been set up over the country, China's carbon market still has a conservative risk appetite and its governing institutions still needs further development. The policy makers need to be aware of and avoid the negative impacts of policy events to the market evolvement, by introducing effective consultancy process with the stakeholders and nurturing market expectations in the long run. We also find that events like allowance auctions have considerably less impacts than previously expected and argue that auction approach should be considered a preferable option over a free allocation system in the future policy design.

GEOLOGICAL MARKS OF A POSSIBLE EXTRATERRESTRIAL IMPACT EVENT ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SINIAN/CAMBRIAN IN TIANMENSHAN IN WESTERN HUNAN

Geologic marks related to extraterrestrial impact events, such as impact split gravels, impact brecciate layers, impact dikes, microirghizites, microtektites, especially meteoritic residues, were discovered on the boundary between Sinian/Cambrian at Tianmenshan of Western Hunan, which may possibly demonstrate that an extraterrestrial impact event has ever occurred there on the S/C boundary.

Regional Tourism Resilience under Crisis Impacts:The Cases of Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta

Since the beginning of the 21st century,various crisis events have occurred frequently,inflicting substantial impacts on the tourism sector,which has garnered considerable scholarly and policy attention.Nevertheless,limited research has systematically explored tourism resilience at the urban scale,and there is a paucity of studies comparing regional differences in tourism resilience under distinct crisis scenarios and their underlying causes.Thus,this study focuses on the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta,employing Martin’s regional economic resilience measurement method.It assesses the tourism resilience of the two regions under the impact of the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic,subsequently visualizing the data results using ArcGIS software.The study also endeavors to unveil potential causes for disparities in urban tourism resilience.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly,regions with higher economic development exhibit relatively weaker tourism resilience during economic crises,yet demonstrate comparatively stronger resilience during public crises.Secondly,distinct differentiations exist both between and within the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta,primarily stemming from variations such as geographical positioning,tourism resource endowments,and industrial and economic structures,both regionally and within individual cities.Thirdly,the determination of regional tourism resilience is intricate and cannot be restricted to a single dimension;multidimensional indicators better encapsulate the essence of regional tourism resilience.

Effects on Sedimentary Processes via Upper Triassic Climate Forcing Caused by Multiple Impacting and Large Igneous Provinces (LIP)-Rifting/Degassing: Jordanian Platform/Arabian Plate and Germanic Basin/Central Europe

Upper Triassic sedimentary systems of both the Arabian Plate and the Germanic Basin reveal climate- and plate tectonic-forced effects through certain time-intervals experienced by architectural elements, lithofacies types, unconformities, flash flood deposits, maximum flooding surfaces/sequence boundary (MFS/SB), mineralogy, and isotope anomalies. Further, Moon recession and changes of Earth’s rotation velocity (core/mantle boundary) are associated with multiple impacting and large igneous provinces/Mid Oceanic Ridge Basalt, LIP/MORB-rifting/degassing. While acidification (by degassing, sturz-rain) does influence tectosilicates and carbonates, montmorillonite represents a key mineral as transformation of volcanic/impact glass (Tephra) to be found as co-components in and in certain pelite units as “boundary clay-suspicions” (mixture of eolian paleoloess, pelite, paleosol, and tephra → tuffite). Obviously, unconformities and sequence boundaries of both study areas separate and dislocate interrupted ∂13C and 87Sr/86Sr-data groups along the isotope curves. Both Proto-Arctic Ocean rifting/degassing comprising kimberlitic pyroclastic eruptions and Neotethys rifting/degassing as well as multiple impacting played the most important role during the Norian, followed by the incipient Central Atlantic Magmatic Provinces rifting since the Rhaetian. The following associations are encountered and dealt with in this study: Sequence boundaries-∂13C, maximum flooding surfaces-(FUCs)-∂13C, unconformities-plate motion, tephra-pelite-tuffite-montmorillonite. Norian: maximum flooding surfaces (MFSs)-“paleosol”/boundary clay?-rifting-volcanism, Moon/Earth data change. So the Norian (~221 - 206 Ma) hosts anomalous “amalgamated maximum flooding surfaces (MFSs)”, amalgamated paleosol (Jordanian Platform), multiple impacting (~219 - 214 Ma), the maximum opening of the Proto-Arctic Ocean (PAO) (~230 - 200 Ma), Neo-Tethys (NT)-subvolcanic (sills, dikes) in the NE Dead Sea area prior the Rhaetian, and a significant change of Earth/Moon relation data. The study concludes that rare and extreme events are very strongly shaping the geologic constellations in the Earth System.

气候变化事件对头足类繁殖、年龄生长与早期生活史影响的研究进展

头足类是重要的渔业资源之一,其渔业生物学特性极易受到海洋环境变化的影响。气候系统中的能量主要储存载体是海洋。近年来频发的气候变化事件引发海洋环境因子变动,直接或间接地改变了头足类的渔业生物学特性,对头足类的渔业生产造成影响。为此,本文归纳和总结了气候变化对头足类繁殖、年龄生长与早期生活史等3个方面的影响,并提出了展望。结果表明,气候变化事件的发生极易影响头足类动物的渔业生物学特性,海洋环境因子中的温度和初级生产力变动为主要影响因素。目前,相关研究对象多为柔鱼科和枪乌贼科等经济种类,选用的海洋环境因子也多为海洋环境温度,今后应结合其他海洋环境数据研究气候变化事件对其他种类的影响。本文旨为研究气候变化事件对头足类渔业生物学特性的影响提供理论依据,为近年来气候变化事件频发下头足类渔业的可持续发展提供科学指导。

考虑交通事件影响的高速公路短时行程时间预测

本研究目的是基于历史行程数据并考虑交通事件,构建可提高高速公路短时行程时间预测精度的方法。基于深层机器学习理论,设计加权均方根相似(Weighted-RMSS)模型,利用经纬度将行程分段,考虑高速公路车辆时空流动性的时间传递,计算当前行程时间和历史案例行程时间的相似性,提高了行程时间预测精确度。在此基础上,结合交通事件数据建立交通事件影响矩阵,建立LGBM模型(Light Gradient Boosting Machine)用于短时行程时间预测,并利用广州高速公路平沙至机场南路段实测数据进行验证。研究结果表明,开发2个模型效果均优于传统KNN模型,且考虑了交通事件影响的LGBM模型的预测精度高于Weighted-RMSS模型,达到95.68%,比较不同未来预测时间得出预测5 min效果最佳,精度可达96.18%。本研究在短时行程时间预测上有显著的优越性,有助于为驾驶人提供准确的出行时间,有利于高速公路的交通管理。

高校大面积停电事件情景构建及应急处置

高校作为一个独特的社区,对大面积停电事件的敏感性较高。此类事件不仅影响教学和生活,还可能威胁到高校的安全稳定。为全面探究大面积停电事件对高校安全稳定的影响及应急处置策略,首先通过分析近年来国内外高校大面积停电事件,归纳出人为、技术和设备、系统设计、自然环境等影响因素,从电网、基础设施、服务保障、社会影响4个层面建立影响模型,分析了高校电力系统的整体性及脆弱性;然后结合霍尔三维结构理论,从风险演化、事件分类、应急响应3个维度构建了高校大面积停电事件情景构建分析模型,对高校大面积停电重点关注事件、情景处置和应急任务进行分类、分层阐释;最后基于西安某高校停电事件,对情景构建分析模型和应急任务的可行性进行了验证。结果表明:列出的不同时段重点关注事件有助于识别高校大面积停电事件突发应对关键脆弱点,建立的情景构建分析模型和应急任务是可行的。研究结果能为高校有效应对大面积停电事件、保障校园安全稳定提供参考。

高校体育赛事对学生体育参与度的影响分析

该研究旨在研究高校体育赛事对学生体育参与度的影响,并就此提出合理的解决方案。正面影响方面,体育赛事能够促进学生身体健康、培养运动习惯、加强团队协作和领导能力,同时提高社交能力。然而,负面影响涉及学业压力、时间管理、竞争压力和心理健康问题。解决方案包括合理安排赛事时间、提供学业与体育平衡培训、强调心理健康支持,并持续评估与改进整合系统,以促进学生的全面发展。

综合交通运输服务指数构建与应用研究

交通运输作为国民经济和社会发展的“先行官”,是经济社会发展的重要标志。而综合交通运输体系发展是当代交通运输发展的新趋势、新方向。为健全和完善综合交通运输体系,提出构建综合交通运输服务指数方法,并以陕西省为例,选取铁路、公路、水运、航空、邮政五大运输领域运量数据,通过对缺失值补充、季节调整、无量纲化、熵权法确定权重,进而使用Fisher-ideal方法构建陕西省综合交通运输服务指数,并结合HP滤波处理的周期性分析、重大事件影响分析验证其合理性。结果表明:构建的综合交通运输服务指数能在一定程度上发挥宏观经济的先行指标功能,可展现不同阶段重大事件对交通运输业的影响,具有适用性。

气候变化对园艺作物生产的影响

近年来随着极端天气事件频率和强度的增加,对园艺作物的生长、产量和品质都造成了不同程度的影响。该文通过综述和分析文献资料,基于气候变化中气温升高、降水变化、极端天气事件增加等情况,探讨相关因素对园艺作物的生长发育和产量稳定性的影响,以及气候变化对园艺作物生长环境中土壤水分、温度、光照等因素的变化对不同作物的适应性和产量的影响及当前研究的不足,总结应对气候变化的关键策略并提出未来研究的方向,如优化种植结构、调整栽培措施、采用抗逆性强的品种、改善耕作管理等措施,以提高园艺作物对气候变化的适应能力和生产稳定性,并不断开发更加适应性强的新品种、建立全面有效的气候调控技术体系等,通过综合利用技术手段和管理措施,可以有效减轻极端天气对园艺作物生产的影响,保障农业生产的稳定性和可持续发展。

The Last 15,000 Years: Climate-Controlled and “Rare-Event”-Triggered/Rise and Fall of Holocene Cultures in the Near/Middle East and in Central Europe—Evidence and Background

Pushed by the results of a preceding publication on the possibly Quaternary Jebel Waqf as Suwwan Meteorite Crater, Jordan [5], where an amazing coincidence of Rapid Climate Changes (RCCs) with Rise and Fall of Neolithic and Bronze Age Cultures became evident for the Near/Middle East, this paper deals with the same subject, however, relating to the complete Holocene period in the same area and, additionally, in Central Europe as well. By application of modern climatic data [6] comprising isotope analysis (δ18O, 14C, 10Be), acid and aerosol events, and greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4) Greenland ice cores as well as other astro-/geophysical and geological parameters, an overwhelming coincidence/relation/interdependence of both natural and cultural evidences becomes obvious throughout the last 15,000 years across the Northern Hemisphere. Apart from solar output and other astrophysical processes, most important climate- and Earth-related parameters are Mega-Volcanism (i.e.Santorini Greece: ~3640 yr cal. B. P.), Impact Events (i.e. during Mesolithic: ~9600 yr cal. B. P), rapid oceanic current change (DO-Events), and Plate Tectonics (possibly Atlantis-Event: ~11,500 yr cal. B.P. = Pleistocene/Holocene boundary). The most essential parameter is a significant temperature change related to more or less restricted latitude realms of the Northern Hemisphere. Thus, glacier advance/retreat controls the mobility of peoples (i.e. Nations' Migration, Teutonic Empires) and the access to ore deposits (Au, Ag, Cu, Sn, Zn, Pb, Fe) located in Alpine Mountain Ranges (i.e. End-Neolithic, Early Bronze Age). Myths like the Gilgamesh Epos and John Apocalypse convincingly reveal realistic contents relating to natural hazards like tsunamis, impact and flooding events. They unmisunderstandably make obvious that Myths may provide valuable contributions, especially to Geosciences. Some of the controlling parameters interrelate with others or present a kind of hierarchy: Mega-Volcanism/impact events à ejecta à wildfires, heat storms à cosmic winter, sint winter à stop of photosynthesis à mass extinction environmental pollution à greenhouse effects. Significant events (21 cases in total) occurred on i.e.

Palaeoclimatic Cycles, Global Environmental Changes and New Glacial Periods Induced by the Impact of Extraterrestrial Bodies

In terms of Earth\|Sun geometry, the Milankovitch theory has successfully explained most of the cyclic palaeoclimatic variations during the history of the Earth, especially in the Quaternary. In this paper, the authors suggest that the impact of extraterrestrial bodies on the Earth may be another mechanism to cause palaeoclimatic cycles, global environmental changes and new glacial periods. Based on geological and geochemical records in the boundary layers produced by six huge Cenozoic bolide\|impact events (65, 34, 15, 2.4, 1.1, 0.73 Ma B.P.), including those at 34, 15, 1.1 and 0.73 Ma B.P. which are represented by four famous tektite\|strewn fields, the process and mechanics of palaeoclimatic cycles and global environmental catastrophes induced by extraterrestrial impact are discussed in detail. Impact\|generated dust, soot and aerosol floating in the stratosphere could result in short\|term (<1 year), rapid drop in temperature immediately after impact. Through self\|regulation of the Earth’s climate system, the temperature at the surface slowly went up within 100a and maintained stable for a long time at 250K. If there were no other factors leading to the break\|down of the newly\|established equilibrium, a new glacial period would be initiated. Estimating from the thickness of \{δ\{\}\+\{13\}C\} and \{δ\{\}\+\{18\}O\} anomalies in sediments across the impact boundary layer and deposition rate, the duration of two stages of the palaeoclimate cycle in the form of cold weather—greenhouse effect—normal weather was 10\+4-10\+5a, respectively. The conclusion deduced from the above model is supported by palaeotemperature change recorded by oxygen isotope in sediments across the impact boundary layer.

林德勒加速度对修正史瓦西黑洞引力势及光的轨迹的影响

主要研究林德勒加速度对修正史瓦西黑洞周围引力势变化及光的轨迹的影响。引入拉格朗日方程,得到修正史瓦西黑洞周围引力势变化和光在赤道平面内的偏折规律。在黑洞附近,由于势垒的存在,一部分光在到达黑洞时发生反射;而光子球附近的光将围绕黑洞旋转很多次,然后逃逸到无穷远处,使得黑洞周围产生更大的亮度,这也是黑洞周围“光环”形成的原因;当碰撞参数增大时,势垒逐渐变小,直至消失,这部分光由于没有遇到势垒,进入黑洞内部,形成黑洞内部“阴影”。此外,还讨论了不同林德勒加速度对修正史瓦西黑洞事件视界半径、光子球半径及碰撞参数的影响,林德勒加速度越大,对应的事件视界半径、光子球半径和碰撞参数越小。

Risk Assessment of Extreme Events along a River Flow

The present work considers the Struma River water flow on Bulgarian territory as a starting point for evalua-tion of maximum and minimum water flow using an original integral method. The risk assessment is deter-mined by specific indices like the index Mmax,i for the deviation of the maximum water flow from the calcu-lated norm of the maximum flow Qmax,0 and the index Mmin,i for the deviation of the minimum water flow from calculated norm of the minimum flow Qmin,0. The new integral approach introducing specific indicators for risk assessment like the indices Mmin,i and Mmax,i has been checked at three sampling locations of the Na-tional monitoring net along the Struma River: Pernik (in the beginning), Krupnik (in the middle) and Marino pole (at the border in Greece) for the period 1948-2006. A significant trend towards decreasing of Mmax,i in-dex is outlined for the three points. On contrary, a significant trend towards increasing of Mmin,i index is found at Krupnik and Marno pole sampling points.

证券虚假陈述民事责任中的价格影响理论:理论反思与实践争议

为了保护中小投资者利益,《虚假陈述若干规定》依据欺诈市场理论推定信赖要件(交易因果关系)的成立。在美国Halliburton II案中,美国联邦最高法院允许被告举证证明股价没有受到虚假陈述影响而推翻信赖推定,这被称为价格影响理论(price impact theory)。从美国下级法院的司法实践看,被告只有通过聘请专家证人提供优势证据才能完成推翻信赖推定的举证要求。《虚假陈述若干规定》采纳了同样的理论,明确规定被告可以抗辩虚假陈述缺乏价格敏感性而推翻信赖推定。在过往的司法实践中,少数法院事实上已经采用了价格影响理论。然而,存在的问题是:缺乏理论的论证、课以被告较轻的举证义务且采用的方法不够精确。基于保护中小投资者和精确计算原则,被告应当提供优势证据证明股价没有受到虚假陈述影响。专家证人可以采用事件分析法来较为精确地计算虚假陈述对股价的影响。

不良事件上报管理对微生物检验标本质量的影响研究

比较扬州市江都人民医院不良事件上报管理前、后微生物检验标本质量,评价不良事件上报管理对检验标本质量的影响,根据分析结果改进质量控制措施。结果显示,不良事件上报管理前,2021年1—10月微生物标本共20397份,不合格标本308份,占比为1.51%;不良事件上报管理后,2022年1—10月微生物标本共21671份,不合格标本196份,占比下降为0.90%。研究发现,导致微生物检验标本不合格的原因较多,针对性培训、宣教后,改进效果不明显,实施不良事件上报管理后,微生物送检标本的合格率明显提升,微生物检验质量得到了一定保证。

伴自伤自杀行为的青少年抑郁症患者负性生活事件发生情况与抑郁水平的关系

目的探讨伴自伤自杀行为的青少年抑郁症患者负性生活事件发生情况与抑郁水平的关系。方法纳入63例伴自伤自杀行为的青少年抑郁症患者作为研究对象,采用贝克抑郁自评问卷(BDI)评估患者抑郁症的严重程度,采用青少年生活事件(ASLEC)量表评估患者负性生活事件的发生频率和影响程度。分析伴自伤自杀行为的青少年抑郁症患者ASLEC总分与BDI总分的相关性。采用多重线性回归模型分析伴自伤自杀行为的青少年抑郁症患者抑郁水平的影响因素。结果伴自伤自杀行为的青少年抑郁症患者BDI总分为(21.14±7.51)分;ASLEC量表总分及受惩罚、人际压力、学习压力和适应维度得分均高于常模(均P<0.05);ASLEC量表总分及受惩罚、人际压力、学习压力及适应维度得分与BDI总分均呈正相关(均P<0.01)。人际压力维度得分是伴自伤自杀行为的青少年抑郁症患者抑郁水平的影响因素。结论与同龄人相比,伴自伤自杀行为的青少年抑郁症患者负性生活事件的发生频率更高,影响程度更大。负性生活事件可加重此类患者的抑郁水平,须关注负性生活事件对其心理健康的影响,必要时应采取积极的心理干预措施以减少其自伤自杀行为的发生。

气象因素对成都市举办体育赛事的影响研究

本文利用2022年成都市的气象观测资料,采用统计分析方法对成都市气候特征进行了分析,针对温度,风向,风速,雾霾等会对体育赛事产生影响的气象因素进行详细讨论,并给出气象因素对体育赛事的影响分析和建议,以及成都创建赛事之都的建议与策略。结果表明:成都秋季风速最小适合开展射箭、帆船、标枪、皮划艇等受风速影响较大的比赛,全年总体风速较小且静风频率高,利于田径比赛的举行。春季,秋季气温适宜,为马术比赛举行的较好时期,夏季温度高湿度大,进行马拉松,长跑等室外活动应选择在清晨或傍晚,春季秋季温度适中,适合篮球、拳击、柔道等同场对抗项目。冬季平均PM2.5浓度为55.01μg·m^(-3),浓度最高。容易出现雾霾天气,影响能见度和空气质量,对飞碟,射击,帆船,棒球等项目会产生影响。

突发性动物疫情事件对生猪价格的冲击效应分析——以非洲猪瘟事件为例

在我国,生猪价格的走向引发着社会各界的持续关注。一方面猪肉是我国居民生活消费的必需品,另一方面猪肉价格的波动对中国居民消费价格指数和物价水平有着尤为显著的影响。近年来,我国突发性动物疫情事件频发,尤其是非洲猪瘟疫情的产生,使得生猪价格异化更为严重,波动更加频繁。文章以2015年1月-2018年7月我国生猪月平均价格为建模基础,借助ARIMA时间序列模型深入剖析突发性动物疫情事件对生猪市场价格的冲击作用,并为其提供科学的量化结果。研究显示:突发性动物疫情事件一般是通过降低生产者饲养能力与打击消费者购买信心等渠道影响供需,进而对生猪价格产生强烈冲击,并且这种冲击效应存在时滞性与阶段性特征。