An Improved CREAM Model Based on DS Evidence Theory and DEMATEL

Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method(CREAM)is widely used in human reliability analysis(HRA).It defines nine common performance conditions(CPCs),which represent the factors thatmay affect human reliability and are used to modify the cognitive failure probability(CFP).However,the levels of CPCs are usually determined by domain experts,whichmay be subjective and uncertain.What’smore,the classicCREAMassumes that the CPCs are independent,which is unrealistic.Ignoring the dependence among CPCs will result in repeated calculations of the influence of the CPCs on CFP and lead to unreasonable reliability evaluation.To address the issue of uncertain information modeling and processing,this paper introduces evidence theory to evaluate the CPC levels in specific scenarios.To address the issue of dependence modeling,the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory(DEMATEL)method is used to process the dependence among CPCs and calculate the relative weights of each CPC,thus modifying the multiplier of the CPCs.The detailed process of the proposed method is illustrated in this paper and the CFP estimated by the proposed method is more reasonable.

Application of seismic multi-attribute fusion method based on D-S evidence theory in prediction of CBM-enriched area

D-S evidence theory provides a good approach to fuse uncertain inlbrmation. In this article, we introduce seismic multi-attribute fusion based on D-S evidence theory to predict the coalbed methane （CBM） concentrated areas. First, we choose seismic attributes that are most sensitive to CBM content changes with the guidance of CBM content measured at well sites. Then the selected seismic attributes are fused using D-S evidence theory and the fusion results are used to predict CBM-enriched area. The application shows that the predicted CBM content and the measured values are basically consistent. The results indicate that using D-S evidence theory in seismic multi-attribute fusion to predict CBM-enriched areas is feasible.

Risk assessment of water security in Haihe River Basin during drought periods based on D-S evidence theory

The weights of the drought risk index （DRI）, which linearly combines the reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability, are difficult to obtain due to complexities in water security during drought periods. Therefore, drought entropy was used to determine the weights of the three critical indices. Conventional simulation results regarding the risk load of water security during drought periods were often regarded as precise. However, neither the simulation process nor the DRI gives any consideration to uncertainties in drought events. Therefore, the Dempster-Shafer （D-S） evidence theory and the evidential reasoning algorithm were introduced, and the DRI values were calculated with consideration of uncertainties of the three indices. The drought entropy and evidential reasoning algorithm were used in a case study of the Haihe River Basin to assess water security risks during drought periods. The results of the new DRI values in two scenarios were compared and analyzed. It is shown that the values of the DRI in the D-S evidence algorithm increase slightly from the original results of Zhang et al. （2005）, and the results of risk assessment of water security during drought periods are reasonable according to the situation in the study area. This study can serve as a reference for further practical application and planning in the Haihe River Basin, and other relevant or similar studies.

Improvement method for the combining rule of Dempster-Shaferevidence theory based on reliability

An improvement method for the combining rule of Dempster evidence theory is proposed. Different from Dempster theory, the reliability of evidences isn't identical; and varies with the event. By weight evidence according to their reliability, the effect of unreliable evidence is reduced, and then get the fusion result that is closer to the truth. An example to expand the advantage of this method is given. The example proves that this method is helpful to find a correct result.

Computational intelligence approach for uncertainty quantification using evidence theory

As an alternative or complementary approach to the classical probability theory,the ability of the evidence theory in uncertainty quantification（UQ） analyses is subject of intense research in recent years.Two state-of-the-art numerical methods,the vertex method and the sampling method,are commonly used to calculate the resulting uncertainty based on the evidence theory.The vertex method is very effective for the monotonous system,but not for the non-monotonous one due to its high computational errors.The sampling method is applicable for both systems.But it always requires a high computational cost in UQ analyses,which makes it inefficient in most complex engineering systems.In this work,a computational intelligence approach is developed to reduce the computational cost and improve the practical utility of the evidence theory in UQ analyses.The method is demonstrated on two challenging problems proposed by Sandia National Laboratory.Simulation results show that the computational efficiency of the proposed method outperforms both the vertex method and the sampling method without decreasing the degree of accuracy.Especially,when the numbers of uncertain parameters and focal elements are large,and the system model is non-monotonic,the computational cost is five times less than that of the sampling method.

Application of evidence theory in information fusion of multiple sources in bayesian analysis

How to obtain proper prior distribution is one of the most critical problems in Bayesian analysis. In many practical cases, the prior information often comes from different sources, and the prior distribution form could be easily known in some certain way while the parameters are hard to determine. In this paper, based on the evidence theory, a new method is presented to fuse the information of multiple sources and determine the parameters of the prior distribution when the form is known. By taking the prior distributions which result from the information of multiple sources and converting them into corresponding mass functions which can be combined by Dempster-Shafer (D-S) method, we get the combined mass function and the representative points of the prior distribution. These points are used to fit with the given distribution form to determine the parameters of the prior distribution. And then the fused prior distribution is obtained and Bayesian analysis can be performed. How to convert the prior distributions into mass functions properly and get the representative points of the fused prior distribution is the central question we address in this paper. The simulation example shows that the proposed method is effective.

New weighting factors assignment of evidence theorybased one vidence distance

Evidence theory has been widely used in the information fusion for its effectiveness of the uncertainty reasoning. However, the classical DS evidence theory involves counter-intuitive behaviors when the high conflict information exists. Based on the analysis of some modified methods, Assigning the weighting factors according to the intrinsic characteristics of the existing evidence sources is proposed, which is determined on the evidence distance theory. From the numerical examples, the proposed method provides a reasonable result with good convergence efficiency. In addition, the new rule retrieves to the Yager's formula when all the evidence sources contradict to each other completely.

AN INTRUSION DETECTION SYSTEM BASED ON EVIDENCE THEORY AND ROUGH SET THEORY

In this paper,we propose a novel Intrusion Detection System (IDS) architecture utilizing both the evidence theory and Rough Set Theory (RST). Evidence theory is an effective tool in dealing with uncertainty question. It relies on the expert knowledge to provide evidences,needing the evidences to be independent,and this make it difficult in application. To solve this problem,a hybrid system of rough sets and evidence theory is proposed. Firstly,simplification are made based on Variable Precision Rough Set (VPRS) conditional entropy. Thus,the Basic Belief Assignment (BBA) for all evidences can be calculated. Secondly,Dempster’s rule of combination is used,and a decision-making is given. In the proposed approach,the difficulties in acquiring the BBAs are solved,the correlativity among the evidences is reduced and the subjectivity of evidences is weakened. An illustrative example in an intrusion detection shows that the two theories combination is feasible and effective.

A new oil spill detection algorithm based on Dempster-Shafer evidence theory

Features of oil spills and look-alikes in polarimetric synthetic aperture radar(SAR)images always play an important role in oil spill detection.Many oil spill detection algorithms have been implemented based on these features.Although environmental factors such as wind speed are important to distinguish oil spills and look-alikes,some oil spill detection algorithms do not consider the environmental factors.To distinguish oil spills and look-alikes more accurately based on environmental factors and image features,a new oil spill detection algorithm based on Dempster-Shafer evidence theory was proposed.The process of oil spill detection taking account of environmental factors was modeled using the subjective Bayesian model.The Faster-region convolutional neural networks(RCNN)model was used for oil spill detection based on the convolution features.The detection results of the two models were fused at decision level using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory.The establishment and test of the proposed algorithm were completed based on our oil spill and look-alike sample database that contains 1798 image samples and environmental information records related to the image samples.The analysis and evaluation of the proposed algorithm shows a good ability to detect oil spills at a higher detection rate,with an identifi cation rate greater than 75%and a false alarm rate lower than 19%from experiments.A total of 12 oil spill SAR images were collected for the validation and evaluation of the proposed algorithm.The evaluation result shows that the proposed algorithm has a good performance on detecting oil spills with an overall detection rate greater than 70%.

Ubiquitous Computing Identity Authentication Mechanism Based on D-S Evidence Theory and Extended SPKI/SDSI

Ubiquitous computing systems typically have lots of security problems in the area of identity authentication by means of classical PKI methods. The limited computing resources, the disconnection network, the classification requirements of identity authentication, the requirement of trust transfer and cross identity authentication, the bi-directional identity authentication, the security delegation and the simple privacy protection etc are all these unsolved problems. In this paper, a new novel ubiquitous computing identity authentication mechanism, named UCIAMdess, is presented. It is based on D-S Evidence Theory and extended SPKI/SDSI. D-S Evidence Theory is used in UCIAMdess to compute the trust value from the ubiquitous computing environment to the principal or between the different ubiquitous computing environments. SPKI-based authorization is expanded by adding the trust certificate in UCIAMdess to solve above problems in the ubiquitous computing environments. The identity authentication mechanism and the algorithm of certificate reduction are given in the paper to solve the multi-levels trust-correlative identity authentication problems. The performance analyses show that UCIAMdess is a suitable security mechanism in solving the complex ubiquitous computing problems.

EARLY WARNING MODEL OF NETWORK INTRUSION BASED ON D-S EVIDENCE THEORY

Application of data fusion technique in intrusion detection is the trend of next- generation Intrusion Detection System (IDS). In network security, adopting security early warn- ing technique is feasible to effectively defend against attacks and attackers. To do this, correlative information provided by IDS must be gathered and the current intrusion characteristics and sit- uation must be analyzed and estimated. This paper applies D-S evidence theory to distributed intrusion detection system for fusing information from detection centers, making clear intrusion situation, and improving the early warning capability and detection efficiency of the IDS accord- ingly.

Fault diagnosis method of hydraulic system based on fusion of neural network and D-S evidence theory

According to fault type diversity and fault information uncertainty problem of the hydraulic driven rocket launcher servo system（HDRLSS） , the fault diagnosis method based on the evidence theory and neural network ensemble is proposed. In order to overcome the shortcomings of the single neural network, two improved neural network models are set up at the com-mon nodes to simplify the network structure. The initial fault diagnosis is based on the iron spectrum data and the pressure, flow and temperature（PFT） characteristic parameters as the input vectors of the two improved neural network models, and the diagnosis result is taken as the basic probability distribution of the evidence theory. Then the objectivity of assignment is real-ized. The initial diagnosis results of two improved neural networks are fused by D-S evidence theory. The experimental results show that this method can avoid the misdiagnosis of neural network recognition and improve the accuracy of the fault diagnosis of HDRLSS.

A Novel Ensemble Learning Algorithm Based on D-S Evidence Theory for IoT Security

In the last decade,IoT has been widely used in smart cities,autonomous driving and Industry 4.0,which lead to improve efficiency,reliability,security and economic benefits.However,with the rapid development of new technologies,such as cognitive communication,cloud computing,quantum computing and big data,the IoT security is being confronted with a series of new threats and challenges.IoT device identification via Radio Frequency Fingerprinting(RFF)extracting from radio signals is a physical-layer method for IoT security.In physical-layer,RFF is a unique characteristic of IoT device themselves,which can difficultly be tampered.Just as people’s unique fingerprinting,different IoT devices exhibit different RFF which can be used for identification and authentication.In this paper,the structure of IoT device identification is proposed,the key technologies such as signal detection,RFF extraction,and classification model is discussed.Especially,based on the random forest and Dempster-Shafer evidence algorithm,a novel ensemble learning algorithm is proposed.Through theoretical modeling and experimental verification,the reliability and differentiability of RFF are extracted and verified,the classification result is shown under the real IoT device environments.

Modification of evidence theory based on feature extraction

Although evidence theory has been widely used in information fusion due to its effectiveness of uncertainty reasoning, the classical DS evidence theory involves counter-intuitive behaviors when high conflict information exists. Many modification methods have been developed which can be classified into the following two kinds of ideas, either modifying the combination rules or modifying the evidence sources. In order to make the modification more reasonable and more effective, this paper gives a thorough analysis of some typical existing modification methods firstly, and then extracts the intrinsic feature of the evidence sources by using evidence distance theory. Based on the extracted features, two modified plans of evidence theory according to the corresponding modification ideas have been proposed. The results of numerical examples prove the good performance of the plans when combining evidence sources with high conflict information.

Structural Interval Reliability Algorithm Based on Bernstein Polynomials and Evidence Theory

Structural reliability is an important method to measure the safety performance of structures under the influence of uncertain factors.Traditional structural reliability analysis methods often convert the limit state function to the polynomial form to measure whether the structure is invalid.The uncertain parameters mainly exist in the form of intervals.This method requires a lot of calculation and is often difficult to achieve efficiently.In order to solve this problem,this paper proposes an interval variable multivariate polynomial algorithm based on Bernstein polynomials and evidence theory to solve the structural reliability problem with cognitive uncertainty.Based on the non-probabilistic reliability index method,the extreme value of the limit state function is obtained using the properties of Bernstein polynomials,thus avoiding the need for a lot of sampling to solve the reliability analysis problem.The method is applied to numerical examples and engineering applications such as experiments,and the results show that the method has higher computational efficiency and accuracy than the traditional linear approximation method,especially for some reliability problems with higher nonlinearity.Moreover,this method can effectively improve the reliability of results and reduce the cost of calculation in practical engineering problems.

A novel adaptive temporal-spatial information fusion model based on Dempster-Shafer evidence theory

In the field of target recognition based on the temporal-spatial information fusion,evidence the-ory has received extensive attention.To achieve accurate and efficient target recognition by the evi-dence theory,an adaptive temporal-spatial information fusion model is proposed.Firstly,an adaptive evaluation correction mechanism is constructed by the evidence distance and Deng entropy,which realizes the credibility discrimination and adaptive correction of the spatial evidence.Secondly,the credibility decay operator is introduced to obtain the dynamic credibility of temporal evidence.Finally,the sequential combination of temporal-spatial evidences is achieved by Shafer’s discount criterion and Dempster’s combination rule.The simulation results show that the proposed method not only considers the dynamic and sequential characteristics of the temporal-spatial evidences com-bination,but also has a strong conflict information processing capability,which provides a new refer-ence for the field of temporal-spatial information fusion.

Numerical Characterizations of Covering Rough Sets Based on Evidence Theory

Covering rough sets are improvements of traditional rough sets by considering cover of universe instead of partition.In this paper,we develop several measures based on evidence theory to characterize covering rough sets.First,we present belief and plausibility functions in covering information systems and study their properties.With these measures we characterize lower and upper approximation operators and attribute reductions in covering information systems and decision systems respectively.With these discussions we propose a basic framework of numerical characterizations of covering rough sets.

A Heterogeneous Information Fusion Method for Maritime Radar and AIS Based on D-S Evidence Theory

Maritime radar and automatic identification systems (AIS), which are essential auxiliary equipment for navigation safety in the shipping industry, have played significant roles in maritime safety supervision. However, in practical applications, the information obtained by a single device is limited, and it is necessary to integrate the information of maritime radar and AIS messages to achieve better recognition effects. In this study, the D-S evidence theory is used to fusion the two kinds of heterogeneous information: maritime radar images and AIS messages. Firstly, the radar image and AIS message are processed to get the targets of interest in the same coordinate system. Then, the coordinate position and heading of targets are chosen as the indicators for judging target similarity. Finally, a piece of D-S evidence theory based on the information fusion method is proposed to match the radar target and the AIS target of the same ship. Particularly, the effectiveness of the proposed method has been validated and evaluated through several experiments, which proves that such a method is practical in maritime safety supervision.

Belief exponential divergence for D-S evidence theory and its application in multi-source information fusion

Dempster-Shafer evidence theory is broadly employed in the research of multi-source information fusion.Nevertheless,when fusing highly conflicting evidence it may pro-duce counterintuitive outcomes.To address this issue,a fusion approach based on a newly defined belief exponential diver-gence and Deng entropy is proposed.First,a belief exponential divergence is proposed as the conflict measurement between evidences.Then,the credibility of each evidence is calculated.Afterwards,the Deng entropy is used to calculate information volume to determine the uncertainty of evidence.Then,the weight of evidence is calculated by integrating the credibility and uncertainty of each evidence.Ultimately,initial evidences are amended and fused using Dempster’s rule of combination.The effectiveness of this approach in addressing the fusion of three typical conflict paradoxes is demonstrated by arithmetic exam-ples.Additionally,the proposed approach is applied to aerial tar-get recognition and iris dataset-based classification to validate its efficacy.Results indicate that the proposed approach can enhance the accuracy of target recognition and effectively address the issue of fusing conflicting evidences.

Network Security Situation Evaluation Based on Modified D-S Evidence Theory

With the rapid development of global information and the increasing dependence on network for people, network security problems are becoming more and more serious. By analyzing the existing security assessment methods, we propose a network security situation evaluation system based on modified D-S evidence theory is proposed. Firstly, we give a modified D-S evidence theory to improve the reliability and rationality of the fusion result and apply the theory to correlation analysis. Secondly, the attack successful support is accurately calculated by matching internal factors with external threats. Multi-module evaluation is established to comprehensively evaluate the situation of network security. Finally we use an example of actual network datasets to validate the network security situation evaluation system. The simulation result shows that the system can not only reduce the rate of false positives and false alarms, but also effectively help analysts comprehensively to understand the situation of network security.