A crosstalk-free dual-mode sweat sensing system for naked-eye sweat loss quantification via changes in structural reflectance

Sweat loss monitoring is important for understanding the body’s thermoregulation and hydration status,as well as for comprehensive sweat analysis.Despite recent advances,developing a low-cost,scalable,and universal method for the fabrication of colorimetric microfluidics designed for sweat loss monitoring remains challenging.In this study,we propose a novel laserengraved surface roughening strategy for various flexible substrates.This process permits the construction of microchannels that show distinct structural reflectance changes before and after sweat filling.By leveraging these unique optical properties,we have developed a fully laser-engraved microfluidic device for the quantification of naked-eye sweat loss.This sweat loss sensor is capable of a volume resolution of 0.5µL and a total volume capacity of 11µL,and can be customized to meet different performance requirements.Moreover,we report the development of a crosstalk-free dual-mode sweat microfluidic system that integrates an Ag/AgCl chloride sensor and a matching wireless measurement flexible printed circuit board.This integrated system enables the real-time monitoring of colorimetric sweat loss signals and potential ion concentration signals without crosstalk.Finally,we demonstrate the potential practical use of this microfluidic sweat loss sensor and its integrated system for sports medicine via on-body studies.

Genetically modified pigs:Emerging animal models for hereditary hearing loss

Hereditary hearing loss(HHL),a genetic disorder that impairs auditory function,significantly affects quality of life and incurs substantial economic losses for society.To investigate the underlying causes of HHL and evaluate therapeutic outcomes,appropriate animal models are necessary.Pigs have been extensively used as valuable large animal models in biomedical research.In this review,we highlight the advantages of pig models in terms of ear anatomy,inner ear morphology,and electrophysiological characteristics,as well as recent advancements in the development of distinct genetically modified porcine models of hearing loss.Additionally,we discuss the prospects,challenges,and recommendations regarding the use pig models in HHL research.Overall,this review provides insights and perspectives for future studies on HHL using porcine models.

Automated Actuarial Data Analytics-Based Inflation Adjusted Frequency Severity Loss Reserving Model

In this paper, the Automated Actuarial Loss Reserving Model is developed and extended using machine learning. The traditional actuarial reserving techniques are no longer compatible with the increase in technological advancement currently at hand. As a result, the development of the alternative Artificial Intelligence Based Automated Actuarial Loss Reserving Methodology which captures diverse risk profiles for various policyholders through augmenting the Micro Finance services, Auto Insurance Services and Both Services lines of business on the same platform through the computation of the Comprehensive Automated Actuarial Loss Reserves (CAALR) has been implemented in this paper. The introduction of the four further types of actuarial loss reserves to those existing in the actuarial literature seems to significantly reduce lapse rates, reduce the reinsurance costs as well as expenses and outgo. As a matter of consequence, this helps to bring together a combination of new and existing policyholders in the insurance company. The frequency severity models have been extended in this paper using ten machine learning algorithms which ultimately leads to the derivation of the proposed machine learning-based actuarial loss reserving model which remarkably performed well when compared to the traditional chain ladder actuarial reserving method using simulated data.

Hemoglobin loss method calculates blood loss during pancreaticoduodenectomy and predicts bleeding-related risk factors

BACKGROUND The common clinical method to evaluate blood loss during pancreaticoduoden-ectomy(PD)is visual inspection,but most scholars believe that this method is extremely subjective and inaccurate.Currently,there is no accurate,objective me-thod to evaluate the amount of blood loss in PD patients.We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 341 patients who underwent PD in Shandong Provincial Hospital from March 2017 to February 2019.According to different surgical methods,they were divided into an open PD(OPD)group and a laparoscopic PD(LPD)group.The differences and correlations between the in-traoperative estimation of blood loss(IEBL)obtained by visual inspection and the intraoperative calculation of blood loss(ICBL)obtained using the Hb loss method were analyzed.ICBL,IEBL and perioperative calculation of blood loss(PCBL)were compared between the two groups,and single-factor regression analysis was performed.RESULTS There was no statistically significant difference in the preoperative general patient information between the two groups(P>0.05).PD had an ICBL of 743.2(393.0,1173.1)mL and an IEBL of 100.0(50.0,300.0)mL(P<0.001).There was also a certain correlation between the two(r=0.312,P<0.001).Single-factor analysis of ICBL showed that a history of diabetes[95%confidence interval(CI):53.82-549.62;P=0.017]was an independent risk factor for ICBL.In addition,the single-factor analysis of PCBL showed that body mass index(BMI)(95%CI:0.62-76.75;P=0.046)and preoperative total bilirubin>200μmol/L(95%CI:7.09-644.26;P=0.045)were independent risk factors for PCBL.The ICBLs of the LPD group and OPD group were 767.7(435.4,1249.0)mL and 663.8(347.7,1138.2)mL,respectively(P>0.05).The IEBL of the LPD group 200.0(50.0,200.0)mL was slightly greater than that of the OPD group 100.0(50.0,300.0)mL(P>0.05).PCBL was greater in the LPD group than the OPD group[1061.6(612.3,1632.3)mL vs 806.1(375.9,1347.6)mL](P<0.05).CONCLUSION The ICBL in patients who underwent PD was greater than the IEBL,but there is a certain correlation between the two.The Hb loss method can be used to evaluate intraoperative blood loss.A history of diabetes,preoperative bilirubin>200μmol/L and high BMI increase the patient's risk of bleeding.

Numerical study of alpha particle loss with toroidal field ripple based on CFETR steady-state scenario

Effects of plasma equilibrium parameters on the alpha particle loss with the toroidal field ripple based on the CFETR steady-state scenario have been numerically investigated by the orbit-following code GYCAVA. It is found that alpha particle losses decrease and loss regions become narrower with the plasma current increasing or with the magnetic field decreasing. It is because the ripple stochastic transport and the ripple well loss of alpha particle are reduced with the safety factor decreasing. Decrease of the plasma density and temperature can reduce alpha particle losses due to enhancement of the slowing-down effect. The direction of the toroidal magnetic field can significantly affect heat loads induced by lost alpha particle. The vertical asymmetry of heat loads induced by the clockwise and counter-clockwise toroidal magnetic fields are due to the fact that the ripple distribution is asymmetric about the mid-plane, which can be explained by the typical orbits of alpha particle. The maximal heat load of alpha particle for the clockwise toroidal magnetic field is much smaller than that for the counter-clockwise one.

Simulation of charge-exchange induced NBI losses on EAST

The neutral beam injection is widely adopted in tokamaks as a key heating tool,playing a crucial role in generating burning plasmas.However,the loss of beam ions can damage the first wall and reduce the heating efficiency,resulting in failure to maintain steady-state conditions.In this work,the effect of neutral particles in the edge on fast ions generated by NBI in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak(EAST)device is studied using the particle tracer code(PTC).The poloidal distribution of neutral particles is calculated by edge plasma simulation code SOLPS-ITER.In this simulation,four beam lines in EAST are considered:co-current tangential(co-tang),co-current perpendicular(co-perp),counter-current tangential(ctr-tang)and counter-current perpendicular(ctr-perp).It is shown that,in the absence of neutral particles,the loss fraction of ctr-injection is considerably higher than that of the co-injection.When considering the neutral particles,it is found that the ctr-perp injection demonstrates a significant variation in particles loss fraction(ranging from 18.56%to 25.42%)compared to the other three injection configurations.In terms of the loss fraction induced by neutral particles,ctr-injection exceeds co-injection,and perpendicular configuration exceeds tangential configuration.Furthermore,the difference of charge exchange ratios of three different energy(full energy,half energy,one third energy)of the four injections can be attributed to variations in the poloidal trajectories associated with each of these injections.Moreover,approximately half of fast ions which undergo neutralization directly lose to the first wall while the rest re-enter the bulk plasma and re-ionize.Except for the ctr-tang injection,the reionization ions from the other three injections exhibit effective confinement.

A micro-crosslinked amphoteric hydrophobic association copolymer as high temperature-and salt-resistance fluid loss reducer for water-based drilling fluids

During ultradeep oil and gas drilling,fluid loss reducers are highly important for water-based drilling fluids,while preparing high temperature-and salt-resistance fluid loss reducers with excellent rheology and filtration performance remains a challenge.Herein,a micro-crosslinked amphoteric hydrophobic association copolymer(i.e.,DADC)was synthesized using N,N-dimethyl acrylamide,diallyl dimethyl ammonium chloride,2-acrylamido-2-methylpropane sulfonic acid,hydrophobic monomer,and pentaerythritol triallyl ether crosslinker.Due to the synergistic effects of hydrogen bonds,electrostatic interaction,hydrophobic association,and micro-crosslinking,the DADC copolymer exhibited outstanding temperature-and salt-resistance.The rheological experiments have shown that the DADC copolymer had excellent shear dilution performance and a certain degree of salt-responsive viscosity-increasing performance.The DADC copolymer could effectively adsorb on the surface of bentonite particles through electrostatic interaction and hydrogen bonds,which bring more negative charge to the bentonite,thus improving the hydration and dispersion of bentonite particles as well as the colloidal stability of the drilling fluids.Moreover,the drilling fluids constructed based on the DADC copolymer exhibited satisfactory rheological and filtration properties(FLHTHP=12 m L)after aging at high temperatures(up to200℃)and high salinity(saturated salt)environments.Therefore,this work provided new insights into designing and fabricating high-performance drilling fluid treatment agents,demonstrating good potential applications in deep and ultradeep drilling engineering.

Insights into the mechanism of L-malic acid on drip loss of chicken meat under commercial conditions

Background A deterioration in the meat quality of broilers has attracted much more attention in recent years.L-malic acid(MA)is evidenced to decrease meat drip loss in broilers,but the underlying molecular mechanisms are still unclear.It’s also not sure whether the outputs obtained under experimental conditions can be obtained in a com-mercial condition.Here,we investigated the effects and mechanisms of dietary MA supplementation on chicken meat drip loss at large-scale rearing.Results Results showed that the growth performance and drip loss were improved by MA supplementation.Meat metabolome revealed that L-2-aminoadipic acid,β-aminoisobutyric acid,eicosapentaenoic acid,and nicotinamide,as well as amino acid metabolism pathways connected to the improvements of meat quality by MA addition.The transcriptome analysis further indicated that the effect of MA on drip loss was also related to the proper immune response,evidenced by the enhanced B cell receptor signaling pathway,NF-κB signaling pathway,TNF signaling pathway,and IL-17 signaling pathway.Conclusions We provided evidence that MA decreased chicken meat drip loss under commercial conditions.Metabolome and transcriptome revealed a comprehensive understanding of the underlying mechanisms.Together,MA could be used as a promising dietary supplement for enhancing the water-holding capacity of chicken meat.

Comparative Efficacy of Lifestyle Modifications versus Pharmacotherapy on Weight Loss and Metabolic Health Outcomes: A Comprehensive Review

Background: Obesity has become a serious global public health challenge, given that it leads to various adverse health outcomes that include cardiovascular illnesses, diabetes, and certain types of cancer. The World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated that, at the end of 2022, 1 out of every 8 individuals were obese, and that the global adult obesity rates have over doubled since 1990, even as the adolescent obesity rates have quadrupled. Thus, as of 2022, nearly 2.5 billion adults, aged 18 years and above, were overweight, with 890 million being obese. Obesity and overweight incidence rate has been gradually increasing over the years, presenting significant challenges to the healthcare systems throughout the globe. In this regard, the objective of this systematic review was to evaluate the effectiveness and safety of lifestyle modifications (diet and physical activity) and pharmacotherapy in promoting weight loss and improving metabolic health in overweight adults. Methodology: To attain the above stated study objective, a systematic evaluation of previous studies was carried out, particularly studies that assessed the effectiveness and safety of lifestyle modifications (diet and physical activity) and pharmacotherapy in promoting weight loss and improving metabolic health in overweight adults. The authors have used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) in the selection of eligible studies for inclusion in the study. Results: The findings indicate that lifestyle interventions resulted in 5% - 10% weight reduction and significant improvements in metabolic indicators, while pharmacotherapy (GLP-1 receptor agonists) achieved up to 15% weight reduction and considerable metabolic health benefits. Further, comparative studies show lifestyle modifications provide overall health benefits, while medication is necessary for non-responders. Conclusion: Individualized treatment strategies are crucial, and further research is needed on long-term consequences and combination therapies.

Ionically Imprinting-Based Copper(Ⅱ)Label-Free Detection for Preventing Hearing Loss

Copper is a microelement with important physiological functions in the body.However,the excess copper ion(Cu^(2+))may cause severe health problems,such as hair cell apoptosis and the resultant hearing loss.Therefore,the assay of Cu^(2+)is important.We integrate ionic imprinting technology(IIT)and structurally colored hydrogel beads to prepare chitosan-based ionically imprinted hydrogel beads(IIHBs)as a low-cost and high-specificity platform for Cu^(2+)detection.The IIHBs have a macroporous microstructure,uniform size,vivid structural color,and magnetic responsiveness.When incubated in solution,IIHBs recognize Cu^(2+)and exhibit a reflective peak change,thereby achieving label-free detection.In addition,benefiting from the IIT,the IIHBs display good specificity and selectivity and have an imprinting factor of 19.14 at 100μmol·L^(-1).These features indicated that the developed IIHBs are promising candidates for Cu^(2+)detection,particularly for the prevention of hearing loss.

Machine learning for carbonate formation drilling: Mud loss prediction using seismic attributes and mud loss records

Due to the complexity and variability of carbonate formation leakage zones, lost circulation prediction and control is one of the major challenges of carbonate drilling. It raises well-control risks and production expenses. This research utilizes the H oilfield as an example, employs seismic features to analyze mud loss prediction, and produces a complete set of pre-drilling mud loss prediction solutions. Firstly, 16seismic attributes are calculated based on the post-stack seismic data, and the mud loss rate per unit footage is specified. The sample set is constructed by extracting each attribute from the seismic trace surrounding 15 typical wells, with a ratio of 8:2 between the training set and the test set. With the calibration results for mud loss rate per unit footage, the nonlinear mapping relationship between seismic attributes and mud loss rate per unit size is established using the mixed density network model.Then, the influence of the number of sub-Gausses and the uncertainty coefficient on the model's prediction is evaluated. Finally, the model is used in conjunction with downhole drilling conditions to assess the risk of mud loss in various layers and along the wellbore trajectory. The study demonstrates that the mean relative errors of the model for training data and test data are 6.9% and 7.5%, respectively, and that R2is 90% and 88%, respectively, for training data and test data. The accuracy and efficacy of mud loss prediction may be greatly enhanced by combining 16 seismic attributes with the mud loss rate per unit footage and applying machine learning methods. The mud loss prediction model based on the MDN model can not only predict the mud loss rate but also objectively evaluate the prediction based on the quality of the data and the model.

Navigating Silence: A Comprehensive Review of Parental Roles in the Rehabilitation of Children with Hearing Loss

This narrative literature review delves into the multifaceted realm of parental involvement in the rehabilitation of children with permanent hearing loss. While existing research has made strides in elucidating parental roles in this context, critical gaps persist, necessitating a comprehensive exploration to inform future endeavors. Our review synthesizes a wide array of studies, identifying these gaps and emphasizing the significance of addressing them. Themes emerging from the literature include the varying degrees of parental engagement, the impact of cultural and socio-economic factors, and the challenges faced by families navigating rehabilitation processes. The synthesis of this literature not only highlights the current state of knowledge but also provides a roadmap for future research efforts. By addressing these gaps, we aim to contribute to a more nuanced understanding of parental involvement in the rehabilitation of children with permanent hearing loss, ultimately fostering improved support systems and holistic care for affected families.

An Improved Solov2 Based on Attention Mechanism and Weighted Loss Function for Electrical Equipment Instance Segmentation

The current existing problem of deep learning framework for the detection and segmentation of electrical equipment is dominantly related to low precision.Because of the reliable,safe and easy-to-operate technology provided by deep learning-based video surveillance for unmanned inspection of electrical equipment,this paper uses the bottleneck attention module(BAM)attention mechanism to improve the Solov2 model and proposes a new electrical equipment segmentation mode.Firstly,the BAM attention mechanism is integrated into the feature extraction network to adaptively learn the correlation between feature channels,thereby improving the expression ability of the feature map;secondly,the weighted sum of CrossEntropy Loss and Dice loss is designed as the mask loss to improve the segmentation accuracy and robustness of the model;finally,the non-maximal suppression(NMS)algorithm to better handle the overlap problem in instance segmentation.Experimental results show that the proposed method achieves an average segmentation accuracy of mAP of 80.4% on three types of electrical equipment datasets,including transformers,insulators and voltage transformers,which improve the detection accuracy by more than 5.7% compared with the original Solov2 model.The segmentation model proposed can provide a focusing technical means for the intelligent management of power systems.

Additional comments on foot reflexology treatment for sensorineural hearing loss in infant

Currently,treatment options for infant sensorineural hearing loss(SNHL)are limited.This article describes a novel case of SNHL in an infant successfully treated with foot reflexology,along with observed brain activity changes before and after treatment,as indicated by functional magnetic resonance imaging.Hence,this commentary discusses the case and our viewpoints regarding foot reflexology for treating SNHL.

A Loss-model-based Efficiency Optimization Control Method for Induction Traction System of High-speed Train under Emergency Self-propelled Mode

Increasing attention has been paid to the efficiency improvement of the induction traction system of high-speed trains due to the high demand for energy saving. In emergency self-propelled mode, however, the dc-link voltage and the traction power of the motor are significantly reduced, resulting in decreased traction efficiency due to the low load and low speed operations. Aiming to tackle this problem, a novel efficiency improved control method is introduced to the emergency mode of high-speed train traction system in this paper. In the proposed method, a total loss model of induction motor considering the behaviors of both iron and copper loss is established. An improved iterative algorithm with decreased computational burden is then introduced, resulting in a fast solving of the optimal flux reference for loss minimization at each control period. In addition, considering the parameter variation problem due to the low load and low speed operations, a parameter estimation method is integrated to improve the controller's robustness. The effectiveness of the proposed method on efficiency improvement at low voltage and low load conditions is demonstrated by simulated and experimental results.

Understanding the correlation between energy-state mismatching and open-circuit voltage loss in bulk heterojunction solar cells

Photoinduced intermolecular charge transfer(PICT)determines the voltage loss in bulk heterojunction(BHJ)organic photovoltaics(OPVs),and this voltage loss can be minimized by inducing efficient PICT,which requires energy-state matching between the donor and acceptor at the BHJ interfaces.Thus,both geometrically and energetically accessible delocalized state matching at the hot energy level is crucial for achieving efficient PICT.In this study,an effective method for quantifying the hot state matching of OPVs was developed.The degree of energy-state matching between the electron donor and acceptor at BHJ interfaces was quantified using a mismatching factor(MF)calculated from the modified optical density of the BHJ.Furthermore,the correlation between the open-circuit voltage(Voc)of the OPV device and energy-state matching at the BHJ interface was investigated using the calculated MF.The OPVs with small absolute MF values exhibited high Voc values.This result clearly indicates that the energy-state matching between the donor and acceptor is crucial for achieving a high Voc in OPVs.Because the MF indicates the degree of energy-state matching,which is a critical factor for suppressing energy loss,it can be used to estimate the Voc loss in OPVs.

Modified intratympanic steroid therapy for sudden sensorineural hearing loss via tympanic tube and gelfoam as a salvage treatment

Background: Sudden sensorineural hearing loss(SSNHL) is a prevalent emergency in ear, nose, and throat practice. Previous studies have demonstrated that intratympanic steroid therapy(IST) can serve as a salvage treatment for SSNHL after the failure of systemic steroid therapy(SST).Objective: This study aimed to analyze the efficacy of modified IST involving the insertion of a tympanic tube and gelfoam as a salvage treatment for patients with SSNHL, and to explore its associated factors.Methods: Totally, 74 patients who were aged 22–81 years with SSNHL were enrolled and allocated to either the control group(n = 25) or the treatment group(n = 49) based on their treatment modalities. All patients received SST lasting for at least 7 days. Subsequently, patients in the treatment group, after SST failure, underwent IST twice a week for 2–6 weeks, while the control group did not. Efficacy was assessed by the improvement in pure tone average at the affected frequency at the beginning and end of IST.Results: Hearing improvement in all patients after IST in the treatment group was 9.71 ± 14.84 dB, with significant improvement at affected frequencies(250-8000 Hz) compared with the control group(P < 0.05). The findings indicated the duration from the onset of SSNHL to the beginning of IST as an independent factor for pure tone average improvement after treatment(P = 0.002), whereas age, duration of SST, and time of IST were not(P > 0.05).Conclusion: The modified IST was demonstrated to be a safe and effective method as a salvage treatment for SSNHL. This study explored the efficacy of a modified IST approach, incorporating the utilization of tympanic tubes and gelfoam as key components. The findings underscore the advantages of gelfoam as a strategic drug carrier placed in the round window niche. By minimizing drug loss, extending action time, and increasing perilymph concentration, gelfoam enhances the therapeutic impact of IST, contributing to improved hearing outcomes in patients with SSNHL.

Loss of heterozygosity for chromosomes 16q in Wilms tumors predicts outcomes:A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND The research findings suggest that the prognosis of children with Wilms tumor(WT)is affected by various factors.Some scholars have indicated that loss of heterozygosity(LOH)on chromosome 16q is associated with a poor prognosis in patients with WT.AIM To further elucidate this relationship,we conducted a meta-analysis.METHODS This meta-analysis was registered in INPLASY(INPLASY2023100060).We systematically searched databases including Embase,PubMed,Web of Science,Cochrane,and Google Scholar up to May 31,2020,for randomized trials reporting any intrapartum fetal surveillance approach.The meta-analysis was performed within a frequentist framework,and the quality and network inconsistency of trials were assessed.Odds ratios and 95%CIs were calculated to report the relationship between event-free survival and 16q LOH in patients with WT.RESULTS Eleven cohort studies were included in this meta-analysis to estimate the relationship between event-free survival and 16q LOH in patients with WT(I^(2)=25%,P<0.001).As expected,16q LOH can serve as an effective predictor of eventfree survival in patients with WT(risk ratio=1.95,95%CI:1.52–2.49,P<0.001).CONCLUSION In pediatric patients with WT,there exists a partial correlation between 16q LOH and an unfavorable treatment prognosis.Clinical detection of 16q chromosome LOH warrants increased attention to the patient’s prognosis.

Weight regain after intragastric balloon for pre-surgical weight loss

BACKGROUND Over one-third of Americans carry the diagnosis of obesity,many also with obesity-related comorbidities.This can place patients at increased risk of operative and postoperative complications.The intragastric balloon has been shown to aid in minor weight loss,however its weight recidivism in patients requiring short interval weight loss has not been well studied.AIM To evaluate weight loss,ability to undergo successful elective surgery after intragastric balloon placement,and weight management after balloon removal.METHODS This study is a retrospective review of patients in a single academic institution undergoing intragastric balloon placement from 2019-2023 to aid in weight loss prior to undergoing elective surgery.Clinical outcomes including weight loss,duration of balloon placement,successful elective surgery,weight regain postballoon and post-procedure complications were assessed.Exclusion criteria included those with balloon in place at time of study.RESULTS Thirty-three patients completed intragastric balloon therapy from 2019-2023 as a bridge to elective surgery.All patients were required to participate in a 12-month weight management program to be eligible for balloon therapy.Elective surgeries included incisional hernia repair,umbilical hernia repair,inguinal hernia repair,and knee and hip replacements.The average age at placement was 53 years±11 years,majority(91%)were male.The average duration of intragastric balloon therapy was 186 days±41 days.The average weight loss was 14.0 kg±7.4 kg and with an average percent excess body weight loss of 30.0%(7.9%-73.6%).Over half of the patients(52.0%)achieved the goal of 30-50 lbs(14-22 kg)weight loss.Twenty-one patients(64%)underwent their intended elective surgery,2 patients(6%)deferred surgery due to symptom relief with weight loss alone.Twenty-one of the patients(64%)have documented weights in 3 months after balloon removal,in these patients the majority(76%)gained weight after balloon removed.In patients with weight regain at 3 months,they averaged 5.8 kg after balloon removal in the first 3 months,this averaged 58.4%weight regain of the initial weight lost.CONCLUSION Intragastric balloon placement is an option for short-term weight management,as a bridge to elective surgery in patients with body mass index(BMI)>35.Patients lost an average of 14 kg with the balloon,allowing two-thirds of patients to undergo elective surgery at a healthy BMI.However,most patients regained an average of 58%of the original weight lost after balloon removal.The intragastric balloon successfully serves as a tool for rapid weight loss,though patients must be educated on the risks including weight regain.

Estimating the Yield Loss of Winter Wheat from Drought in the United States Southern Plains Region as Influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) production is a major economic activity in most regional and rural areas in the Southern Plains, a semi-arid region of the United States. This region is vulnerable to drought and is projected to experience a drier climate in the future. Since the interannual variability in climate in this region is linked to an ocean-atmospheric phenomenon, called El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), droughts in this region may be associated with ENSO. Droughts that occur during the critical growth phases of wheat can be extremely costly. However, the losses due to an impending drought can be minimized through mitigation measures if it is predicted in advance. Predicting the yield loss from an imminent drought is crucial for stakeholders. One of the reliable ways for such prediction is using a plant physiology-based agricultural drought index, such as Agricultural Reference Index for Drought (ARID). This study developed ENSO phase-specific, ARID-based models for predicting the drought-induced yield loss for winter wheat in this region by accounting for its phenological phase-specific sensitivity to drought. The reasonable values of the drought sensitivity coefficients of the yield model for each ENSO phase (El Niño, La Niña, or Neutral) indicated that the yield models reflected reasonably well the phenomena of water stress decreasing the winter wheat yields in this region during different ENSO phases. The values of various goodness-of-fit measures used, including the Nash-Sutcliffe Index (0.54 to 0.67), the Willmott Index (0.82 to 0.89), and the percentage error (20 to 26), indicated that the yield models performed fairly well at predicting the ENSO phase-specific loss of wheat yields from drought. This yield model may be useful for predicting yield loss from drought and scheduling irrigation allocation based on the phenological phase-specific sensitivity to drought as impacted by ENSO.