BACKGROUND Stem cells are undifferentiated cells that possess the potential for self-renewal with the capacity to differentiate into multiple lineages.In humans,their limited numbers pose a challenge in fulfilling the...BACKGROUND Stem cells are undifferentiated cells that possess the potential for self-renewal with the capacity to differentiate into multiple lineages.In humans,their limited numbers pose a challenge in fulfilling the necessary demands for the regeneration and repair of damaged tissues or organs.Studies suggested that mesenchymal stem cells(MSCs),necessary for repair and regeneration via transplantation,require doses ranging from 10 to 400 million cells.Furthermore,the limited expansion of MSCs restricts their therapeutic application.AIM To optimize a novel protocol to achieve qualitative and quantitative expansion of MSCs to reach the targeted number of cells for cellular transplantation and minimize the limitations in stem cell therapy protocols.METHODS Human umbilical cord(hUC)tissue derived MSCs were obtained and re-cultured.These cultured cells were subjected to the following evaluation pro-cedures:Immunophenotyping,immunocytochemical staining,trilineage differentiation,population doubling time and number,gene expression markers for proliferation,cell cycle progression,senescence-associatedβ-galactosidase assay,human telomerase reverse transcriptase(hTERT)expression,mycoplasma,cytomegalovirus and endotoxin detection.RESULTS Analysis of pluripotent gene markers Oct4,Sox2,and Nanog in recultured hUC-MSC revealed no significant differences.The immunophenotypic markers CD90,CD73,CD105,CD44,vimentin,CD29,Stro-1,and Lin28 were positively expressed by these recultured expanded MSCs,and were found negative for CD34,CD11b,CD19,CD45,and HLA-DR.The recultured hUC-MSC population continued to expand through passage 15.Proliferative gene expression of Pax6,BMP2,and TGFb1 showed no significant variation between recultured hUC-MSC groups.Nevertheless,a significant increase(P<0.001)in the mitotic phase of the cell cycle was observed in recultured hUC-MSCs.Cellular senescence markers(hTERT expression andβ-galactosidase activity)did not show any negative effect on recultured hUC-MSCs.Additionally,quality control assessments consistently confirmed the absence of mycoplasma,cytomegalovirus,and endotoxin contamination.CONCLUSION This study proposes the development of a novel protocol for efficiently expanding stem cell population.This would address the growing demand for larger stem cell doses needed for cellular transplantation and will significantly improve the feasibility of stem cell based therapies.展开更多
The expansion of a thick-walled hollow cylinder in soil is of non-self-similar nature that the stress/deformation paths are not the same for different soil material points.As a result,this problem cannot be solved by ...The expansion of a thick-walled hollow cylinder in soil is of non-self-similar nature that the stress/deformation paths are not the same for different soil material points.As a result,this problem cannot be solved by the common self-similar-based similarity techniques.This paper proposes a novel,exact solution for rigorous drained expansion analysis of a hollow cylinder of critical state soils.Considering stress-dependent elastic moduli of soils,new analytical stress and displacement solutions for the nonself-similar problem are developed taking the small strain assumption in the elastic zone.In the plastic zone,the cavity expansion response is formulated into a set of first-order partial differential equations(PDEs)with the combination use of Eulerian and Lagrangian descriptions,and a novel solution algorithm is developed to efficiently solve this complex boundary value problem.The solution is presented in a general form and thus can be useful for a wide range of soils.With the new solution,the non-self-similar nature induced by the finite outer boundary is clearly demonstrated and highlighted,which is found to be greatly different to the behaviour of cavity expansion in infinite soil mass.The present solution may serve as a benchmark for verifying the performance of advanced numerical techniques with critical state soil models and be used to capture the finite boundary effect for pressuremeter tests in small-sized calibration chambers.展开更多
In recent years, lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have become more responsive to climate change. In September 2011, Zonag Lake in Hoh Xil experienced sudden drainage, the water eventually flowed into Yanhu Lake, whi...In recent years, lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have become more responsive to climate change. In September 2011, Zonag Lake in Hoh Xil experienced sudden drainage, the water eventually flowed into Yanhu Lake, which caused Yanhu Lake to continue to expand. The potential collapse of Yanhu Lake could directly threaten the operational safety of the adjacent Qinghai-Tibet Highway, Qinghai-Tibet Railway. To explore the implications of expanding lakes on the surrounding permafrost, we selected Hoh Xil Yanhu Lake on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to study the effect of lake expansion on permafrost degradation. The permafrost degradation in the Yanhu Lake basin from October 2017 to December 2022 was inverted using Sentinel-1 satellite image data and small baseline subset interferometry synthetic aperture radar(SBAS-In SAR) technology. Additionally, permafrost degradation from February 2007 and February 2010 was analyzed using advanced land observing satellite phased array-type L-band synthetic aperture radar(ALOS PALSAR) satellite images and differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar(D-In SAR) technique. The results showed that the permafrost around Yanhu Lake experienced accelerated degradation. Prior to the expansion of Yanhu Lake, the average annual deformation rate along the line of sight(LOS) direction was 6.7 mm/yr. After the expansion, the rate increased to 20.9 mm/yr. The integration of spatial-temporal distribution maps of surface subsidence, Wudaoliang borehole geothermal data, meteorological data, Yanhu Lake surface area changes, and water level changes supports the assertion that the intensified permafrost degradation could be attributed to lake expansion rather than the rising air temperature. Furthermore, permafrost degradation around Yanhu Lake could impact vital infrastructure such as the adjacent Qinghai-Tibet Highway and Qinghai-Tibet Railway.展开更多
The Mutis-Timau Forest Complex,located on Timor Island,Indonesia,is a mountainous tropical forest area that gradually decreases due to deforestation and forest degradation.Previous modelling studies based on patterns ...The Mutis-Timau Forest Complex,located on Timor Island,Indonesia,is a mountainous tropical forest area that gradually decreases due to deforestation and forest degradation.Previous modelling studies based on patterns indicate that deforestation primarily occurs at lower elevations and near the boundaries of forests and settlements,often associated with shifting cultivation by local farmers.This study adopts a process-based modelling approach,specifically the agent-based model,to simulate land changes,particularly farmers'expansion of agricultural land around the Mutis mountain forest.The underlying concept of this agent-based approach is the interaction between the human and environmental systems.Farmers,representing the human system,interact with the land,which represents the environmental system,through land use decision-making mechanisms.The research was conducted in the Community Forest of the Timor Tengah Utara District,one of the sites within the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex with the highest deforestation rate.Land use change simulations were performed using agent-based modelling from 1999 to 2030,considering the socio-economic conditions of farmers,spatial preferences,land use decisions,and natural transitions.The results revealed that the agricultural area increased by 14%under the Business as Usual scenario and 5%under the Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation scenario,compared to the initial agricultural area of 245 hectares.The probability of farmers deciding to extend agricultural activities was positively associated with the number of livestock maintained by farmers and the size of the village area.Conversely,the likelihood of farmers opting for agricultural extensification decreased with an increase in the area of private land and the farmer's age.These findings are crucial for the managers of the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex and other relevant stakeholders,as they aid in arranging actions to combat deforestation,designing proper forest-related policies,and providing support for initiatives such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation programs or further incentive schemes.展开更多
Numerous engineering cases have demonstrated that the expansive soil channel slope remains susceptible to damage with the implementation of a rigid or closed protective structure. It is common for the protective struc...Numerous engineering cases have demonstrated that the expansive soil channel slope remains susceptible to damage with the implementation of a rigid or closed protective structure. It is common for the protective structure to experience bulging failure due to excessive swelling pressure. To investigate the swelling pressure properties of expansive soil, the constant volume test was employed to study the influence of water content and reserved expansion deformation on the characteristics of swelling pressure in strong expansive soils, and also to explore the evolution mechanism of the swelling pressure. The findings demonstrate that the swelling pressure-time curve can be classified into swelling pressure-time softening and swelling pressure-time stability type. The swelling pressuretime curve of the specimen with low water content is the swelling pressure-time softening type, and the softening level will be weakened with increasing reserved expansion deformation. Besides, the maximum swelling pressure Psmax decreases with increasing water content and reserved expansion deformation, especially for expansion ratio η from 24% to 37%. The reserved deformation has little effect on reducing Psmax when it is beyond 7% of the expansion rate. The specimen with low water content has a more homogeneous structure due to the significant expansion-filling effect, and the fracture and reorganization of the aggregates in the specimens with low water content cause the swelling pressure-time softening behavior. In addition, the proposed swelling pressure-time curve prediction model has a good prediction on the test results. If necessary, a deformation space of about 7% expansion rate is recommended to be reserved in the engineering to reduce the swelling pressure except for keeping a stable water content.展开更多
In the context of global mean square error concerning the number of random variables in the representation,the Karhunen–Loève(KL)expansion is the optimal series expansion method for random field discretization.T...In the context of global mean square error concerning the number of random variables in the representation,the Karhunen–Loève(KL)expansion is the optimal series expansion method for random field discretization.The computational efficiency and accuracy of the KL expansion are contingent upon the accurate resolution of the Fredholm integral eigenvalue problem(IEVP).The paper proposes an interpolation method based on different interpolation basis functions such as moving least squares(MLS),least squares(LS),and finite element method(FEM)to solve the IEVP.Compared with the Galerkin method based on finite element or Legendre polynomials,the main advantage of the interpolation method is that,in the calculation of eigenvalues and eigenfunctions in one-dimensional random fields,the integral matrix containing covariance function only requires a single integral,which is less than a two-folded integral by the Galerkin method.The effectiveness and computational efficiency of the proposed interpolation method are verified through various one-dimensional examples.Furthermore,based on theKL expansion and polynomial chaos expansion,the stochastic analysis of two-dimensional regular and irregular domains is conducted,and the basis function of the extended finite element method(XFEM)is introduced as the interpolation basis function in two-dimensional irregular domains to solve the IEVP.展开更多
China has made great achievements in industrial development and is transforming into a powerful manufacturing country.Meanwhile,the industrial land scale is also expanding.However,whether industrial structure upgradin...China has made great achievements in industrial development and is transforming into a powerful manufacturing country.Meanwhile,the industrial land scale is also expanding.However,whether industrial structure upgrading achieves the purpose of restraining industrial land expansion remains unanswered.By calculating the industrial land structure index(ILSI)and industrial land expansion scale(ILES),this study analyzed their temporal and spatial distribution characteristics at both regional and city levels from 2007to 2020 in China.Results show that industrial land expansion presents a different trend in the four regions,the ILES in the eastern region is the largest,and the speed of industrial land expansion has declined since 2013,but it has gradually increased since 2016.The ILSI of the eastern and central regions is higher than that of the western and northeastern regions.Furthermore,a spatial Durbin model(SDM)has been established to estimate the spatial effect of industrial structure upgrading on industrial land expansion from 2007 to2020.Notably,industrial structure upgrading has not slowed industrial land expansion.The eastern and western regions require a greater amount of industrial land while upgrading the industrial structure.The improvement of the infrastructure level and international trade level has promoted industrial land expansion.展开更多
The expansion chamber serves as the primary silencing structure within the exhaust pipeline.However,it can also act as a sound-emitting structure when subjected to airflow.This article presents a hybrid method for num...The expansion chamber serves as the primary silencing structure within the exhaust pipeline.However,it can also act as a sound-emitting structure when subjected to airflow.This article presents a hybrid method for numerically simulating and analyzing the unsteady flow and aerodynamic noise in an expansion chamber under the influence of airflow.A fluid simulation model is established,utilizing the Large Eddy Simulation(LES)method to calculate the unsteady flow within the expansion chamber.The simulation results effectively capture the development and changes of the unsteady flow and vorticity inside the cavity,exhibiting a high level of consistency with experimental observations.To calculate the aerodynamic noise sources within the cavity,the flow field results are integrated using the method of integral interpolation and inserted into the acoustic grid.The acoustic analogy method is then employed to determine the aerodynamic noise sources.An acoustic simulation model is established,and the flow noise source is imported into the sound field grid to calculate the sound pressure at the far-field response point.The calculated sound pressure levels and resonance frequencies show good agreement with the experimental results.To address the issue of airflow regeneration noise within the cavity,perforated tubes are selected as a means of noise suppression.An experimental platformfor airflow regeneration noise is constructed,and experimental samples are processed to analyze and verify the noise suppression effect of perforated tube expansion cavities under different airflow velocities.The research findings indicate that the perforated tube expansion cavity can effectively suppress low-frequency aerodynamic noise within the cavity by impeding the formation of strong shear layers.Moreover,the semi-perforated tube expansion cavity demonstrates the most effective suppression of aerodynamic noise.展开更多
With the increasing penetration of wind and solar energies,the accompanying uncertainty that propagates in the system places higher requirements on the expansion planning of power systems.A source-grid-load-storage co...With the increasing penetration of wind and solar energies,the accompanying uncertainty that propagates in the system places higher requirements on the expansion planning of power systems.A source-grid-load-storage coordinated expansion planning model based on stochastic programming was proposed to suppress the impact of wind and solar energy fluctuations.Multiple types of system components,including demand response service entities,converter stations,DC transmission systems,cascade hydropower stations,and other traditional components,have been extensively modeled.Moreover,energy storage systems are considered to improve the accommodation level of renewable energy and alleviate the influence of intermittence.Demand-response service entities from the load side are used to reduce and move the demand during peak load periods.The uncertainties in wind,solar energy,and loads were simulated using stochastic programming.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through numerical simulations.展开更多
A novel negative thermal expansion(NTE) material NdMnO_(3) was synthesized by solid-state method at 1 523 K. The crystal structure, phase transition, pores effect and negative expansion properties of NdMnO_(3) were in...A novel negative thermal expansion(NTE) material NdMnO_(3) was synthesized by solid-state method at 1 523 K. The crystal structure, phase transition, pores effect and negative expansion properties of NdMnO_(3) were investigated by variable temperature X-ray diffraction(XRD), scanning electron microscope(SEM) and variable temperature Raman spectra. The compound exhibits NTE properties in the orderly O' phase crystal structure. When the temperature is from 293 to 759 K, the ceramic NdMnO_(3) shows negative thermal expansion of-4.7×10^(-6)/K. As temperature increases, the ceramic NdMnO_(3) presents NTE property range from 759 to 1 007 K. The average linear expansion coefficient is-18.88×10^(-6)/K. The physical mechanism of NTE is discussed and clarified through experiments.展开更多
To address the seismic face stability challenges encountered in urban and subsea tunnel construction,an efficient probabilistic analysis framework for shield tunnel faces under seismic conditions is proposed.Based on ...To address the seismic face stability challenges encountered in urban and subsea tunnel construction,an efficient probabilistic analysis framework for shield tunnel faces under seismic conditions is proposed.Based on the upper-bound theory of limit analysis,an improved three-dimensional discrete deterministic mechanism,accounting for the heterogeneous nature of soil media,is formulated to evaluate seismic face stability.The metamodel of failure probabilistic assessments for seismic tunnel faces is constructed by integrating the sparse polynomial chaos expansion method(SPCE)with the modified pseudo-dynamic approach(MPD).The improved deterministic model is validated by comparing with published literature and numerical simulations results,and the SPCE-MPD metamodel is examined with the traditional MCS method.Based on the SPCE-MPD metamodels,the seismic effects on face failure probability and reliability index are presented and the global sensitivity analysis(GSA)is involved to reflect the influence order of seismic action parameters.Finally,the proposed approach is tested to be effective by a engineering case of the Chengdu outer ring tunnel.The results show that higher uncertainty of seismic response on face stability should be noticed in areas with intense earthquakes and variation of seismic wave velocity has the most profound influence on tunnel face stability.展开更多
Historically,streamer-to-leader transition studies mainly focused on the rod-plane gap and low altitude analysis,with limited attention paid to the sphere-plane gap at high altitude analysis.In this work,sphere-plane ...Historically,streamer-to-leader transition studies mainly focused on the rod-plane gap and low altitude analysis,with limited attention paid to the sphere-plane gap at high altitude analysis.In this work,sphere-plane gap discharge tests were carried out under the gap distance of 5 m at the Qinghai Ultra High Voltage(UHV)test base at an altitude of 2200 m.The experiments measured the physical parameters such as the discharge current,electric field intensity and instantaneous optical power.The duration of the dark period and the critical charge of streamer-toleader transition were obtained at high altitude.Based on radial thermal expansion of the streamer stem,we established a modified streamer-to-leader transition model of the sphere-plane gap discharge at high altitude,and calculated the stem temperature,stem radii and the duration of streamer-to-leader transition.Compared with the measured duration of sphere-plane electrode discharge at an altitude of 2200 m,the error rate of the modified model was 0.94%,while the classical model was 6.97%,demonstrating the effectiveness of the modified model.From the comparisons and analysis,several suggestions are proposed to improve the numerical model for further quantitative investigations of the leader inception.展开更多
Background:With the expansion of urban areas,the remnants of forested areas play a crucial role in preserving biodiversity in urban environments.This study aimed to explore the impact of spatiotemporal urban expansion...Background:With the expansion of urban areas,the remnants of forested areas play a crucial role in preserving biodiversity in urban environments.This study aimed to explore the impact of spatiotemporal urban expansion on the networks of leaf traits in woody plants within remnant forest patches,thereby enhancing our understanding of plant adaptive strategies and contributing to the conservation of urban biodiversity.Methods:Our study examined woody plants within 120 sample plots across 15 remnant forest patches in Guiyang,China.We constructed leaf trait networks (LTNs) based on 26 anatomical,structural,and compositional leaf traits and assessed the effects of the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban expansion on these LTNs.Results and conclusions:Our results indicate that shrubs within these patches have greater average path lengths and diameters than trees.With increasing urban expansion intensity,we observed a rise in the edge density of the LTN-shrubs.Additionally,modularity within the networks of shrubs decreased as road density and urban expansion intensity increased,and increases in the average path length and average clustering coefficient for shrubs were observed with a rise in the composite terrain complexity index.Notably,patches subjected to‘leapfrog’expansion exhibited greater average patch length and diameter than those experiencing edge growth.Stomatal traits were found to have high degree centrality within these networks,signifying their substantial contribution to multiple functions.In urban remnant forests,shrubs bolster their resilience to variable environmental pressures by augmenting the complexity of their leaf trait networks.展开更多
In this paper,Let M_(n)denote the maximum of logarithmic general error distribution with parameter v≥1.Higher-order expansions for distributions of powered extremes M_(n)^(p)are derived under an optimal choice of nor...In this paper,Let M_(n)denote the maximum of logarithmic general error distribution with parameter v≥1.Higher-order expansions for distributions of powered extremes M_(n)^(p)are derived under an optimal choice of normalizing constants.It is shown that M_(n)^(p),when v=1,converges to the Frechet extreme value distribution at the rate of 1/n,and if v>1 then M_(n)^(p)converges to the Gumbel extreme value distribution at the rate of(loglogn)^(2)=(log n)^(1-1/v).展开更多
This paper presents a new computational method for forward uncertainty quantification(UQ)analyses on large-scale structural systems in the presence of arbitrary and dependent random inputs.The method consists of a gen...This paper presents a new computational method for forward uncertainty quantification(UQ)analyses on large-scale structural systems in the presence of arbitrary and dependent random inputs.The method consists of a generalized polynomial chaos expansion(GPCE)for statistical moment and reliability analyses associated with the stochastic output and a static reanalysis method to generate the input-output data set.In the reanalysis,we employ substructuring for a structure to isolate its local regions that vary due to random inputs.This allows for avoiding repeated computations of invariant substructures while generating the input-output data set.Combining substructuring with static condensation further improves the computational efficiency of the reanalysis without losing accuracy.Consequently,the GPCE with the static reanalysis method can achieve significant computational saving,thus mitigating the curse of dimensionality to some degree for UQ under high-dimensional inputs.The numerical results obtained from a simple structure indicate that the proposed method for UQ produces accurate solutions more efficiently than the GPCE using full finite element analyses(FEAs).We also demonstrate the efficiency and scalability of the proposed method by executing UQ for a large-scale wing-box structure under ten-dimensional(all-dependent)random inputs.展开更多
The sampling process is very inefficient for sam-pling-based motion planning algorithms that excess random sam-ples are generated in the planning space.In this paper,we pro-pose an adaptive space expansion(ASE)approac...The sampling process is very inefficient for sam-pling-based motion planning algorithms that excess random sam-ples are generated in the planning space.In this paper,we pro-pose an adaptive space expansion(ASE)approach which belongs to the informed sampling category to improve the sampling effi-ciency for quickly finding a feasible path.The ASE method enlarges the search space gradually and restrains the sampling process in a sequence of small hyper-ellipsoid ring subsets to avoid exploring the unnecessary space.Specifically,for a con-structed small hyper-ellipsoid ring subset,if the algorithm cannot find a feasible path in it,then the subset is expanded.Thus,the ASE method successively does space exploring and space expan-sion until the final path has been found.Besides,we present a particular construction method of the hyper-ellipsoid ring that uniform random samples can be directly generated in it.At last,we present a feasible motion planner BiASE and an asymptoti-cally optimal motion planner BiASE*using the bidirectional exploring method and the ASE strategy.Simulations demon-strate that the computation speed is much faster than that of the state-of-the-art algorithms.The source codes are available at https://github.com/shshlei/ompl.展开更多
In this paper,an adaptive polynomial chaos expansion method(PCE)based on the method of moments(MoM)is proposed to construct surrogate models for electromagnetic scattering and further sensitivity analysis.The MoM is a...In this paper,an adaptive polynomial chaos expansion method(PCE)based on the method of moments(MoM)is proposed to construct surrogate models for electromagnetic scattering and further sensitivity analysis.The MoM is applied to accurately solve the electric field integral equation(EFIE)of electromagnetic scattering from homogeneous dielectric targets.Within the bistatic radar cross section(RCS)as the research object,the adaptive PCE algorithm is devoted to selecting the appropriate order to construct the multivariate surrogate model.The corresponding sensitivity results are given by the further derivative operation,which is compared with those of the finite difference method(FDM).Several examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm for sensitivity analysis of electromagnetic scattering from homogeneous dielectric targets.展开更多
The glass-ceramics were prepared with the spodumene mineral as the main raw material,and the effects of ZrO_(2)replacing TiO_(2)on the samples were systematically investigated.The results show that the substitution of...The glass-ceramics were prepared with the spodumene mineral as the main raw material,and the effects of ZrO_(2)replacing TiO_(2)on the samples were systematically investigated.The results show that the substitution of ZrO_(2)for TiO_(2)is not conductive to precipitate𝛽β-quartz solid solution phase,but can improve the transparency and flexural strength of glass-ceramics.And the glass-ceramic with the highest visible light transmittance(87%)and flexural strength(231.80 MPa)exhibits an ultra-low thermal expansion of-0.028×10^(-7)K^(-1)in the region of 30-700℃.展开更多
This paper investigates the impact of provincial innovation-driven efficiency on the expansion of regional Outward Foreign Direct Investment(OFDI)flows within the context of China’s economy during the period 2011 to ...This paper investigates the impact of provincial innovation-driven efficiency on the expansion of regional Outward Foreign Direct Investment(OFDI)flows within the context of China’s economy during the period 2011 to 2020 by measuring the innovation-driven efficiency and business environment index using the DEA-Malmquist index and the combined CRITIC weighting method from the new perspective of business environment improvement.The findings reveal that:(a)There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between provincial innovation-driven efficiency and regional OFDI flows.This increase in innovation-driven efficiency can promote OFDI expansion of the region by improving its business environment.(b)The improvement of the business environments plays a significant intermediary and synergistic role in OFDI expansion driven by improved innovation efficiency.(c)The study of regional heterogeneity suggests that the central region enjoys the longest window period in terms of innovation-driven OFDI expansion,followed by the eastern region while the western region has the shortest window period.The improvement of the business environment in the western region is more effective in driving regional OFDI expansion.This conclusion remained true after the robustness test.In conclusion,this paper offers a few policy recommendations that can help Chinese capital of various kinds go global more effectively.展开更多
With the increasing urgency of the carbon emission reduction task,the generation expansion planning process needs to add carbon emission risk constraints,in addition to considering the level of power adequacy.However,...With the increasing urgency of the carbon emission reduction task,the generation expansion planning process needs to add carbon emission risk constraints,in addition to considering the level of power adequacy.However,methods for quantifying and assessing carbon emissions and operational risks are lacking.It results in excessive carbon emissions and frequent load-shedding on some days,although meeting annual carbon emission reduction targets.First,in response to the above problems,carbon emission and power balance risk assessment indicators and assessment methods,were proposed to quantify electricity abundance and carbon emission risk level of power planning scenarios,considering power supply regulation and renewable energy fluctuation characteristics.Secondly,building on traditional two-tier models for low-carbon power planning,including investment decisions and operational simulations,considering carbon emissions and power balance risks in lower-tier operational simulations,a two-tier rolling model for thermal power retrofit and generation expansion planning was established.The model includes an investment tier and operation assessment tier and makes year-by-year decisions on the number of thermal power units to be retrofitted and the type and capacity of units to be commissioned.Finally,the rationality and validity of the model were verified through an example analysis,a small-scale power supply system in a certain region is taken as an example.The model can significantly reduce the number of days of carbon emissions risk and ensure that the power balance risk is within the safe limit.展开更多
基金Supported by Higher Education Commission,Islamabad,Pakistan grant,No.20-17590/NRPU/R&D/HEC/20212021.
文摘BACKGROUND Stem cells are undifferentiated cells that possess the potential for self-renewal with the capacity to differentiate into multiple lineages.In humans,their limited numbers pose a challenge in fulfilling the necessary demands for the regeneration and repair of damaged tissues or organs.Studies suggested that mesenchymal stem cells(MSCs),necessary for repair and regeneration via transplantation,require doses ranging from 10 to 400 million cells.Furthermore,the limited expansion of MSCs restricts their therapeutic application.AIM To optimize a novel protocol to achieve qualitative and quantitative expansion of MSCs to reach the targeted number of cells for cellular transplantation and minimize the limitations in stem cell therapy protocols.METHODS Human umbilical cord(hUC)tissue derived MSCs were obtained and re-cultured.These cultured cells were subjected to the following evaluation pro-cedures:Immunophenotyping,immunocytochemical staining,trilineage differentiation,population doubling time and number,gene expression markers for proliferation,cell cycle progression,senescence-associatedβ-galactosidase assay,human telomerase reverse transcriptase(hTERT)expression,mycoplasma,cytomegalovirus and endotoxin detection.RESULTS Analysis of pluripotent gene markers Oct4,Sox2,and Nanog in recultured hUC-MSC revealed no significant differences.The immunophenotypic markers CD90,CD73,CD105,CD44,vimentin,CD29,Stro-1,and Lin28 were positively expressed by these recultured expanded MSCs,and were found negative for CD34,CD11b,CD19,CD45,and HLA-DR.The recultured hUC-MSC population continued to expand through passage 15.Proliferative gene expression of Pax6,BMP2,and TGFb1 showed no significant variation between recultured hUC-MSC groups.Nevertheless,a significant increase(P<0.001)in the mitotic phase of the cell cycle was observed in recultured hUC-MSCs.Cellular senescence markers(hTERT expression andβ-galactosidase activity)did not show any negative effect on recultured hUC-MSCs.Additionally,quality control assessments consistently confirmed the absence of mycoplasma,cytomegalovirus,and endotoxin contamination.CONCLUSION This study proposes the development of a novel protocol for efficiently expanding stem cell population.This would address the growing demand for larger stem cell doses needed for cellular transplantation and will significantly improve the feasibility of stem cell based therapies.
基金funding support from the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2023YFB2604004)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52108374)the“Taishan”Scholar Program of Shandong Province,China(Grant No.tsqn201909016)。
文摘The expansion of a thick-walled hollow cylinder in soil is of non-self-similar nature that the stress/deformation paths are not the same for different soil material points.As a result,this problem cannot be solved by the common self-similar-based similarity techniques.This paper proposes a novel,exact solution for rigorous drained expansion analysis of a hollow cylinder of critical state soils.Considering stress-dependent elastic moduli of soils,new analytical stress and displacement solutions for the nonself-similar problem are developed taking the small strain assumption in the elastic zone.In the plastic zone,the cavity expansion response is formulated into a set of first-order partial differential equations(PDEs)with the combination use of Eulerian and Lagrangian descriptions,and a novel solution algorithm is developed to efficiently solve this complex boundary value problem.The solution is presented in a general form and thus can be useful for a wide range of soils.With the new solution,the non-self-similar nature induced by the finite outer boundary is clearly demonstrated and highlighted,which is found to be greatly different to the behaviour of cavity expansion in infinite soil mass.The present solution may serve as a benchmark for verifying the performance of advanced numerical techniques with critical state soil models and be used to capture the finite boundary effect for pressuremeter tests in small-sized calibration chambers.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Qinghai Province, China (No.2021-ZJ940Q)。
文摘In recent years, lakes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have become more responsive to climate change. In September 2011, Zonag Lake in Hoh Xil experienced sudden drainage, the water eventually flowed into Yanhu Lake, which caused Yanhu Lake to continue to expand. The potential collapse of Yanhu Lake could directly threaten the operational safety of the adjacent Qinghai-Tibet Highway, Qinghai-Tibet Railway. To explore the implications of expanding lakes on the surrounding permafrost, we selected Hoh Xil Yanhu Lake on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to study the effect of lake expansion on permafrost degradation. The permafrost degradation in the Yanhu Lake basin from October 2017 to December 2022 was inverted using Sentinel-1 satellite image data and small baseline subset interferometry synthetic aperture radar(SBAS-In SAR) technology. Additionally, permafrost degradation from February 2007 and February 2010 was analyzed using advanced land observing satellite phased array-type L-band synthetic aperture radar(ALOS PALSAR) satellite images and differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar(D-In SAR) technique. The results showed that the permafrost around Yanhu Lake experienced accelerated degradation. Prior to the expansion of Yanhu Lake, the average annual deformation rate along the line of sight(LOS) direction was 6.7 mm/yr. After the expansion, the rate increased to 20.9 mm/yr. The integration of spatial-temporal distribution maps of surface subsidence, Wudaoliang borehole geothermal data, meteorological data, Yanhu Lake surface area changes, and water level changes supports the assertion that the intensified permafrost degradation could be attributed to lake expansion rather than the rising air temperature. Furthermore, permafrost degradation around Yanhu Lake could impact vital infrastructure such as the adjacent Qinghai-Tibet Highway and Qinghai-Tibet Railway.
基金funded by the Ministry of Environment and Forestry of the Republic of Indonesia through the research funding assistance program。
文摘The Mutis-Timau Forest Complex,located on Timor Island,Indonesia,is a mountainous tropical forest area that gradually decreases due to deforestation and forest degradation.Previous modelling studies based on patterns indicate that deforestation primarily occurs at lower elevations and near the boundaries of forests and settlements,often associated with shifting cultivation by local farmers.This study adopts a process-based modelling approach,specifically the agent-based model,to simulate land changes,particularly farmers'expansion of agricultural land around the Mutis mountain forest.The underlying concept of this agent-based approach is the interaction between the human and environmental systems.Farmers,representing the human system,interact with the land,which represents the environmental system,through land use decision-making mechanisms.The research was conducted in the Community Forest of the Timor Tengah Utara District,one of the sites within the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex with the highest deforestation rate.Land use change simulations were performed using agent-based modelling from 1999 to 2030,considering the socio-economic conditions of farmers,spatial preferences,land use decisions,and natural transitions.The results revealed that the agricultural area increased by 14%under the Business as Usual scenario and 5%under the Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation scenario,compared to the initial agricultural area of 245 hectares.The probability of farmers deciding to extend agricultural activities was positively associated with the number of livestock maintained by farmers and the size of the village area.Conversely,the likelihood of farmers opting for agricultural extensification decreased with an increase in the area of private land and the farmer's age.These findings are crucial for the managers of the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex and other relevant stakeholders,as they aid in arranging actions to combat deforestation,designing proper forest-related policies,and providing support for initiatives such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation programs or further incentive schemes.
基金financially supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2019YFC1509901)。
文摘Numerous engineering cases have demonstrated that the expansive soil channel slope remains susceptible to damage with the implementation of a rigid or closed protective structure. It is common for the protective structure to experience bulging failure due to excessive swelling pressure. To investigate the swelling pressure properties of expansive soil, the constant volume test was employed to study the influence of water content and reserved expansion deformation on the characteristics of swelling pressure in strong expansive soils, and also to explore the evolution mechanism of the swelling pressure. The findings demonstrate that the swelling pressure-time curve can be classified into swelling pressure-time softening and swelling pressure-time stability type. The swelling pressuretime curve of the specimen with low water content is the swelling pressure-time softening type, and the softening level will be weakened with increasing reserved expansion deformation. Besides, the maximum swelling pressure Psmax decreases with increasing water content and reserved expansion deformation, especially for expansion ratio η from 24% to 37%. The reserved deformation has little effect on reducing Psmax when it is beyond 7% of the expansion rate. The specimen with low water content has a more homogeneous structure due to the significant expansion-filling effect, and the fracture and reorganization of the aggregates in the specimens with low water content cause the swelling pressure-time softening behavior. In addition, the proposed swelling pressure-time curve prediction model has a good prediction on the test results. If necessary, a deformation space of about 7% expansion rate is recommended to be reserved in the engineering to reduce the swelling pressure except for keeping a stable water content.
基金The authors gratefully acknowledge the support provided by the Postgraduate Research&Practice Program of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.KYCX18_0526)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.2018B682X14)Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(No.2021A1515110807).
文摘In the context of global mean square error concerning the number of random variables in the representation,the Karhunen–Loève(KL)expansion is the optimal series expansion method for random field discretization.The computational efficiency and accuracy of the KL expansion are contingent upon the accurate resolution of the Fredholm integral eigenvalue problem(IEVP).The paper proposes an interpolation method based on different interpolation basis functions such as moving least squares(MLS),least squares(LS),and finite element method(FEM)to solve the IEVP.Compared with the Galerkin method based on finite element or Legendre polynomials,the main advantage of the interpolation method is that,in the calculation of eigenvalues and eigenfunctions in one-dimensional random fields,the integral matrix containing covariance function only requires a single integral,which is less than a two-folded integral by the Galerkin method.The effectiveness and computational efficiency of the proposed interpolation method are verified through various one-dimensional examples.Furthermore,based on theKL expansion and polynomial chaos expansion,the stochastic analysis of two-dimensional regular and irregular domains is conducted,and the basis function of the extended finite element method(XFEM)is introduced as the interpolation basis function in two-dimensional irregular domains to solve the IEVP.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72074181)National Social Science Foundation of China(No.20CJY023)Innovation Capability Support Program of Shaanxi(No.2021KJXX-12)。
文摘China has made great achievements in industrial development and is transforming into a powerful manufacturing country.Meanwhile,the industrial land scale is also expanding.However,whether industrial structure upgrading achieves the purpose of restraining industrial land expansion remains unanswered.By calculating the industrial land structure index(ILSI)and industrial land expansion scale(ILES),this study analyzed their temporal and spatial distribution characteristics at both regional and city levels from 2007to 2020 in China.Results show that industrial land expansion presents a different trend in the four regions,the ILES in the eastern region is the largest,and the speed of industrial land expansion has declined since 2013,but it has gradually increased since 2016.The ILSI of the eastern and central regions is higher than that of the western and northeastern regions.Furthermore,a spatial Durbin model(SDM)has been established to estimate the spatial effect of industrial structure upgrading on industrial land expansion from 2007 to2020.Notably,industrial structure upgrading has not slowed industrial land expansion.The eastern and western regions require a greater amount of industrial land while upgrading the industrial structure.The improvement of the infrastructure level and international trade level has promoted industrial land expansion.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Grant Nos.12104153 and 51765017)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2021M701963)Training Plan for Academic and Technical Leaders of Major Disciplines in Jiangxi Province,China(Grant No.20204BCJL23034).
文摘The expansion chamber serves as the primary silencing structure within the exhaust pipeline.However,it can also act as a sound-emitting structure when subjected to airflow.This article presents a hybrid method for numerically simulating and analyzing the unsteady flow and aerodynamic noise in an expansion chamber under the influence of airflow.A fluid simulation model is established,utilizing the Large Eddy Simulation(LES)method to calculate the unsteady flow within the expansion chamber.The simulation results effectively capture the development and changes of the unsteady flow and vorticity inside the cavity,exhibiting a high level of consistency with experimental observations.To calculate the aerodynamic noise sources within the cavity,the flow field results are integrated using the method of integral interpolation and inserted into the acoustic grid.The acoustic analogy method is then employed to determine the aerodynamic noise sources.An acoustic simulation model is established,and the flow noise source is imported into the sound field grid to calculate the sound pressure at the far-field response point.The calculated sound pressure levels and resonance frequencies show good agreement with the experimental results.To address the issue of airflow regeneration noise within the cavity,perforated tubes are selected as a means of noise suppression.An experimental platformfor airflow regeneration noise is constructed,and experimental samples are processed to analyze and verify the noise suppression effect of perforated tube expansion cavities under different airflow velocities.The research findings indicate that the perforated tube expansion cavity can effectively suppress low-frequency aerodynamic noise within the cavity by impeding the formation of strong shear layers.Moreover,the semi-perforated tube expansion cavity demonstrates the most effective suppression of aerodynamic noise.
基金supported by Science and Technology Project of SGCC(SGSW0000FZGHBJS2200070)。
文摘With the increasing penetration of wind and solar energies,the accompanying uncertainty that propagates in the system places higher requirements on the expansion planning of power systems.A source-grid-load-storage coordinated expansion planning model based on stochastic programming was proposed to suppress the impact of wind and solar energy fluctuations.Multiple types of system components,including demand response service entities,converter stations,DC transmission systems,cascade hydropower stations,and other traditional components,have been extensively modeled.Moreover,energy storage systems are considered to improve the accommodation level of renewable energy and alleviate the influence of intermittence.Demand-response service entities from the load side are used to reduce and move the demand during peak load periods.The uncertainties in wind,solar energy,and loads were simulated using stochastic programming.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed model is verified through numerical simulations.
文摘A novel negative thermal expansion(NTE) material NdMnO_(3) was synthesized by solid-state method at 1 523 K. The crystal structure, phase transition, pores effect and negative expansion properties of NdMnO_(3) were investigated by variable temperature X-ray diffraction(XRD), scanning electron microscope(SEM) and variable temperature Raman spectra. The compound exhibits NTE properties in the orderly O' phase crystal structure. When the temperature is from 293 to 759 K, the ceramic NdMnO_(3) shows negative thermal expansion of-4.7×10^(-6)/K. As temperature increases, the ceramic NdMnO_(3) presents NTE property range from 759 to 1 007 K. The average linear expansion coefficient is-18.88×10^(-6)/K. The physical mechanism of NTE is discussed and clarified through experiments.
基金Project([2018]3010)supported by the Guizhou Provincial Science and Technology Major Project,China。
文摘To address the seismic face stability challenges encountered in urban and subsea tunnel construction,an efficient probabilistic analysis framework for shield tunnel faces under seismic conditions is proposed.Based on the upper-bound theory of limit analysis,an improved three-dimensional discrete deterministic mechanism,accounting for the heterogeneous nature of soil media,is formulated to evaluate seismic face stability.The metamodel of failure probabilistic assessments for seismic tunnel faces is constructed by integrating the sparse polynomial chaos expansion method(SPCE)with the modified pseudo-dynamic approach(MPD).The improved deterministic model is validated by comparing with published literature and numerical simulations results,and the SPCE-MPD metamodel is examined with the traditional MCS method.Based on the SPCE-MPD metamodels,the seismic effects on face failure probability and reliability index are presented and the global sensitivity analysis(GSA)is involved to reflect the influence order of seismic action parameters.Finally,the proposed approach is tested to be effective by a engineering case of the Chengdu outer ring tunnel.The results show that higher uncertainty of seismic response on face stability should be noticed in areas with intense earthquakes and variation of seismic wave velocity has the most profound influence on tunnel face stability.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Scientific Funds for Young Scientists)(No.52007064)。
文摘Historically,streamer-to-leader transition studies mainly focused on the rod-plane gap and low altitude analysis,with limited attention paid to the sphere-plane gap at high altitude analysis.In this work,sphere-plane gap discharge tests were carried out under the gap distance of 5 m at the Qinghai Ultra High Voltage(UHV)test base at an altitude of 2200 m.The experiments measured the physical parameters such as the discharge current,electric field intensity and instantaneous optical power.The duration of the dark period and the critical charge of streamer-toleader transition were obtained at high altitude.Based on radial thermal expansion of the streamer stem,we established a modified streamer-to-leader transition model of the sphere-plane gap discharge at high altitude,and calculated the stem temperature,stem radii and the duration of streamer-to-leader transition.Compared with the measured duration of sphere-plane electrode discharge at an altitude of 2200 m,the error rate of the modified model was 0.94%,while the classical model was 6.97%,demonstrating the effectiveness of the modified model.From the comparisons and analysis,several suggestions are proposed to improve the numerical model for further quantitative investigations of the leader inception.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.32360418)the Guizhou Provincial Basic Research Program (Natural Science)(No.QianKeHeJiChu-ZK[2024]YiBan022)。
文摘Background:With the expansion of urban areas,the remnants of forested areas play a crucial role in preserving biodiversity in urban environments.This study aimed to explore the impact of spatiotemporal urban expansion on the networks of leaf traits in woody plants within remnant forest patches,thereby enhancing our understanding of plant adaptive strategies and contributing to the conservation of urban biodiversity.Methods:Our study examined woody plants within 120 sample plots across 15 remnant forest patches in Guiyang,China.We constructed leaf trait networks (LTNs) based on 26 anatomical,structural,and compositional leaf traits and assessed the effects of the spatiotemporal dynamics of urban expansion on these LTNs.Results and conclusions:Our results indicate that shrubs within these patches have greater average path lengths and diameters than trees.With increasing urban expansion intensity,we observed a rise in the edge density of the LTN-shrubs.Additionally,modularity within the networks of shrubs decreased as road density and urban expansion intensity increased,and increases in the average path length and average clustering coefficient for shrubs were observed with a rise in the composite terrain complexity index.Notably,patches subjected to‘leapfrog’expansion exhibited greater average patch length and diameter than those experiencing edge growth.Stomatal traits were found to have high degree centrality within these networks,signifying their substantial contribution to multiple functions.In urban remnant forests,shrubs bolster their resilience to variable environmental pressures by augmenting the complexity of their leaf trait networks.
文摘In this paper,Let M_(n)denote the maximum of logarithmic general error distribution with parameter v≥1.Higher-order expansions for distributions of powered extremes M_(n)^(p)are derived under an optimal choice of normalizing constants.It is shown that M_(n)^(p),when v=1,converges to the Frechet extreme value distribution at the rate of 1/n,and if v>1 then M_(n)^(p)converges to the Gumbel extreme value distribution at the rate of(loglogn)^(2)=(log n)^(1-1/v).
基金Project supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea(Nos.NRF-2020R1C1C1011970 and NRF-2018R1A5A7023490)。
文摘This paper presents a new computational method for forward uncertainty quantification(UQ)analyses on large-scale structural systems in the presence of arbitrary and dependent random inputs.The method consists of a generalized polynomial chaos expansion(GPCE)for statistical moment and reliability analyses associated with the stochastic output and a static reanalysis method to generate the input-output data set.In the reanalysis,we employ substructuring for a structure to isolate its local regions that vary due to random inputs.This allows for avoiding repeated computations of invariant substructures while generating the input-output data set.Combining substructuring with static condensation further improves the computational efficiency of the reanalysis without losing accuracy.Consequently,the GPCE with the static reanalysis method can achieve significant computational saving,thus mitigating the curse of dimensionality to some degree for UQ under high-dimensional inputs.The numerical results obtained from a simple structure indicate that the proposed method for UQ produces accurate solutions more efficiently than the GPCE using full finite element analyses(FEAs).We also demonstrate the efficiency and scalability of the proposed method by executing UQ for a large-scale wing-box structure under ten-dimensional(all-dependent)random inputs.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foun-dation of China(51975236)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0703203)the Innovation Project of Optics Valley Laboratory(OVL2021BG007)。
文摘The sampling process is very inefficient for sam-pling-based motion planning algorithms that excess random sam-ples are generated in the planning space.In this paper,we pro-pose an adaptive space expansion(ASE)approach which belongs to the informed sampling category to improve the sampling effi-ciency for quickly finding a feasible path.The ASE method enlarges the search space gradually and restrains the sampling process in a sequence of small hyper-ellipsoid ring subsets to avoid exploring the unnecessary space.Specifically,for a con-structed small hyper-ellipsoid ring subset,if the algorithm cannot find a feasible path in it,then the subset is expanded.Thus,the ASE method successively does space exploring and space expan-sion until the final path has been found.Besides,we present a particular construction method of the hyper-ellipsoid ring that uniform random samples can be directly generated in it.At last,we present a feasible motion planner BiASE and an asymptoti-cally optimal motion planner BiASE*using the bidirectional exploring method and the ASE strategy.Simulations demon-strate that the computation speed is much faster than that of the state-of-the-art algorithms.The source codes are available at https://github.com/shshlei/ompl.
基金supported by the Young Scientists Fund of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.62102444)a Major Research Project in Higher Education Institutions in Henan Province(No.23A560015).
文摘In this paper,an adaptive polynomial chaos expansion method(PCE)based on the method of moments(MoM)is proposed to construct surrogate models for electromagnetic scattering and further sensitivity analysis.The MoM is applied to accurately solve the electric field integral equation(EFIE)of electromagnetic scattering from homogeneous dielectric targets.Within the bistatic radar cross section(RCS)as the research object,the adaptive PCE algorithm is devoted to selecting the appropriate order to construct the multivariate surrogate model.The corresponding sensitivity results are given by the further derivative operation,which is compared with those of the finite difference method(FDM).Several examples are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm for sensitivity analysis of electromagnetic scattering from homogeneous dielectric targets.
文摘The glass-ceramics were prepared with the spodumene mineral as the main raw material,and the effects of ZrO_(2)replacing TiO_(2)on the samples were systematically investigated.The results show that the substitution of ZrO_(2)for TiO_(2)is not conductive to precipitate𝛽β-quartz solid solution phase,but can improve the transparency and flexural strength of glass-ceramics.And the glass-ceramic with the highest visible light transmittance(87%)and flexural strength(231.80 MPa)exhibits an ultra-low thermal expansion of-0.028×10^(-7)K^(-1)in the region of 30-700℃.
基金funded by the National Social Science Foundation of China-funded project “Research on the Theoretical Basis of Building a Modern Economic System in the New Era and the Construction of the Index System”(18KXS009)Sichuan’s provincial soft science project “A Study on the Path for Transformation Towards High-Quality Development in the Context of New Economy in Sichuan from the Perspective of Dual Circulation”(22JDR0261)
文摘This paper investigates the impact of provincial innovation-driven efficiency on the expansion of regional Outward Foreign Direct Investment(OFDI)flows within the context of China’s economy during the period 2011 to 2020 by measuring the innovation-driven efficiency and business environment index using the DEA-Malmquist index and the combined CRITIC weighting method from the new perspective of business environment improvement.The findings reveal that:(a)There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between provincial innovation-driven efficiency and regional OFDI flows.This increase in innovation-driven efficiency can promote OFDI expansion of the region by improving its business environment.(b)The improvement of the business environments plays a significant intermediary and synergistic role in OFDI expansion driven by improved innovation efficiency.(c)The study of regional heterogeneity suggests that the central region enjoys the longest window period in terms of innovation-driven OFDI expansion,followed by the eastern region while the western region has the shortest window period.The improvement of the business environment in the western region is more effective in driving regional OFDI expansion.This conclusion remained true after the robustness test.In conclusion,this paper offers a few policy recommendations that can help Chinese capital of various kinds go global more effectively.
基金supported by Science and Technology Project of State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co.,Ltd. (No.B6120922000A).
文摘With the increasing urgency of the carbon emission reduction task,the generation expansion planning process needs to add carbon emission risk constraints,in addition to considering the level of power adequacy.However,methods for quantifying and assessing carbon emissions and operational risks are lacking.It results in excessive carbon emissions and frequent load-shedding on some days,although meeting annual carbon emission reduction targets.First,in response to the above problems,carbon emission and power balance risk assessment indicators and assessment methods,were proposed to quantify electricity abundance and carbon emission risk level of power planning scenarios,considering power supply regulation and renewable energy fluctuation characteristics.Secondly,building on traditional two-tier models for low-carbon power planning,including investment decisions and operational simulations,considering carbon emissions and power balance risks in lower-tier operational simulations,a two-tier rolling model for thermal power retrofit and generation expansion planning was established.The model includes an investment tier and operation assessment tier and makes year-by-year decisions on the number of thermal power units to be retrofitted and the type and capacity of units to be commissioned.Finally,the rationality and validity of the model were verified through an example analysis,a small-scale power supply system in a certain region is taken as an example.The model can significantly reduce the number of days of carbon emissions risk and ensure that the power balance risk is within the safe limit.