A new car-following model considering velocity anticipation

The full velocity difference model proposed by Jiang et al. [2001 Phys. Rev. E 64 017101] has been improved by introducing velocity anticipation. Velocity anticipation means the follower estimates the future velocity of the leader. The stability condition of the new model is obtained by using the linear stability theory. Theoretical results show that the stability region increases when we increase the anticipation time interval. The mKdV equation is derived to describe the kink-antikink soliton wave and obtain the coexisting stability line. The delay time of car motion and kinematic wave speed at jam density are obtained in this modeh Numerical simulations exhibit that when we increase the anticipation time interval enough, the new model could avoid accidents under urgent braking cases. Also, the traffic jam could be suppressed by considering the anticipation velocity. All results demonstrate that this model is an improvement on the full velocity difference model.

Anticipation,anti-glaucoma drug treatment response and phenotype of a Chinese family with glaucoma caused by the Pro370Leu myocilin mutation

AIM: To describe the anticipation and anti-glaucoma drugs response of a Chinese family with juvenile-onset open angle glaucoma(JOAG) caused by the Pro370Leu myocilin(MYOC) mutation. ·METHODS: Fifteen members of a three-generation Chinese family with JOAG were recruited to this study. They all underwent ophthalmic common examinations. Patients suspected to have JOAG got an assessment of visual field and optical coherence tomography. Intraocular pressures(IOPs) of four patients were measured at 8,10,12,14,17 o’clock respectively after using anti-glaucoma drugs. Mutation screening of all MYOC gene coding exons of the participants was performed by using direct sequencing of PCR products. ·RESULTS: Clinical examinations and pedigree analysis revealed eight family members were suffered from JOAG. Apparent genetics anticipation phenomenon was observed in this family. Their clinical features included elevated IOP of 35-55mmHg,loss of visual field,thinning of retinal nerve fiber layer,and glaucomatous optic disc damage. Noticeably,their intraocular pressure levels could be controlled within normal range at 8 and 10 o’clock by anti-glaucoma drugs,but their IOPs would elevate 】21mmHg after 12 o’clock. Seven patients received trabeculectomy produced thin-walled,pale,and saccate filtering blebs maintaining lower intraocular pressure efficiently. Mutation screening indentified aheterozygous C→T missense mutation in the MYOC gene at position 1 109 in exon 3,corresponding to a substitution of a highly conserved proline to leucine at codon 370 in the olfactomedin domain of MYOC. ·CONCLUSION: The clinical characteristics of JOAG in this family were 1) genetics anticipation; 2) high IOP; 3) temporay response to anti-glaucoma drugs; 4) filtering surgery produced thin-walled and saccate filtering blebs,helping maintain lower IOP.

Density waves in a lattice hydrodynamic traffic flow model with the anticipation effect

By introducing the traffic anticipation effect in the real world into the original lattice hydrodynamic model, we present a new anticipation effect lattice hydrodynamic （AELH） model, and obtain the linear stability condition of the model by applying the linear stability theory. Through nonlinear analysis, we derive the Burgers equation and Korteweg-de Vries （KdV） equation, to describe the propagating behaviour of traffic density waves in the stable and the metastable regions, respectively. The good agreement between simulation results and analytical results shows that the stability of traffic flow can be enhanced when the anticipation effect is considered.

Anticipation phenomenon in familial adenomatous polyposis:an analysis of its origin

AIM To analyze the origin of the anticipationphenomenon,which means earlier death insuccessive generation in familial adenomatouspolyposis.METHODS The study subjects were 2161patients with familial adenomatous polyposisand their 7465 first-degree relatives who weremembers of 750 families registered at ourPolyposis Registry.The ages at death andcumulative mortality rates in the parent,theproband,and the child generations werecompared for both all subjects and the patientsalone.RESULTS In the patients over 5 years of age,the mean age at death was 50.9 years for theparent,42.3 years for the proband,and 33.3years for the child generations,respectively(P【0.001).The deceased rates in the threegenerations were 90.7%,51.3% and 23.1% ofthe patients,respectively,and this differencewas the main cause of the anticipation measuredby parent-child paring method.The cumulativemortality rates for all subjects failed to showanticipation,however the cumulative mortalityrates for the patients showed the anticipation.The anticipation phenomenon was shown by anyparent-child pairing methods for the deceasedpatients.Other important causes of theanticipation were different proportion of causesof death between generations(P【0.001),and alow proportion of detected or deceased patients (P【0.001)in the child generation.CONCLUSION Anticipation in familialadenomatous polyposis may be caused byparent-child paring methods as well as severalintergenerational biases.

Velocity anticipation in the optimal velocity model

In this paper, the velocity anticipation in the optimal velocity model （OVM） is investigated. The driver adjusts the velocity of his vehicle by the desired headway, which depends on both instantaneous headway and relative velocity. The effect of relative velocity is measured by a sensitivity function. A specific form of the sensitivity function is supposed and the involved parameters are determined by the both numerical simulation and empirical data. It is shown that inclusion of velocity anticipation enhances the stability of traffic flow. Numerical simulations show a good agreement with empirical data. This model provides a better description of real traffic, including the acceleration process from standing states and the deceleration process approaching a stopped car.

New scheme of anticipating synchronization for arbitrary anticipation time and its application to long-term prediction of chaotic states

How to predict the dynamics of nonlinear chaotic systems is still a challenging subject with important real-life applications. The present paper deals with this important yet difficult problem via a new scheme of anticipating synchronization. A global, robust, analytical and delay-independent sufficient condition is obtained to guarantee the existence of anticipating synchronization manifold theoretically in the framework of the Krasovskii-Lyapunov theory. Different from ＇traditional techniques （or regimes）＇ proposed in the previous literature, the present scheme guarantees that the receiver system can synchronize with the future state of a transmitter system for an arbitrarily long anticipation time, which allows one to predict the dynamics of chaotic transmitter at any point of time if necessary. Also it is simple to implement in practice. A classical chaotic system is employed to demonstrate the application of the proposed scheme to the long-term prediction of chaotic states.

The Bionic Anticipation of Natural Disasters

After major natural disasters, such as the recent earthquake-tsunami event in South Asia, reports appear about the mysterious ability of animals to anticipate and to escape the impending danger. This is an opportunity to recall the long history of this phenomenon in the traditions of different civilizations, to evaluate Chinese efforts, 30-40 years ago, to use this phenomenon for earthquake prediction, and to judge its state of acceptance in modem science. An effort is made to introduce this phenomenon as a research field of modem bionics. The timing is favorable since, increasingly, infrared thermal anomalies, monitored from satellite, suggesting litho-atmospheric processes, are found to precede earthquakes. They were unexpected by seismologists and are here suggested to essentially reflect the energy conversion patterns responsible for the signals monitored by animals. The aim is to learn from animals in the long term how natural disasters can better be anticipated, and how simple technical warning systems can be developed. Some challenges are analyzed. One is interpretation of the nature of energy release prior to the main earthquake disaster resulting in ＂macro-anomaly＂ precursors, another is better to understand the effect on animal senses. The role of non-linear cooperative phenomena including tsunamitype waves is emphasized.

Stochastic Optimization of Dual Constraints with Anticipation

A stochastic control model is studied.The objective of the investor is to maximize expected utility from terminalconsumption.However,the investor possesses informa-tion about the terminal values of the components of the Brownian motion which drives securities’prices.With the method of stochastic control being applied,investor’s optimal decision is obtained.Especially,the logarith-

Generalized Anticipation Effect Models for Traffic Flow

Taking into account the startup behaviour of following vehicles in the waiting area of urban traffic signal, we propose an extended Nagel-Schreckenberg model for single-lane traffic flow, in which the dynamic behavior of each vehicle depends on not only its own headway but also the headway of the immediately preceding one. The numerical simulation of the present model reproduces some complicated nonlinear phenomena observed in real traffic such as free flow, ghostly blockage, synchronized flow and so on. For specific parameter combinations the flow-density relation of this model shows two meta-stable branches near the transition density from free flow to wide moving traffic jam. Finally, the analytical results of the model under some specific parameters are given by using the mean field theory.

Role of telomere shortening in anticipation of inflammatory bowel disease

BACKGROUND The existence of genetic anticipation has been long disputed in inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)in the absence of the explanatory mechanism.AIM To determine whether it was predictive of genetic anticipation,we evaluated telomere length in IBD.We hypothesized that multiplex IBD families exhibit a genetic defect impacting telomere maintenance mechanisms.METHODS We studied three IBD families with multiple affected members in three successive generations.We determined telomere length(TL)in lymphocytes and granulocytes from peripheral blood of the affected members using flow cytometry and fluorescence in-situ hybridization(flow FISH).We also performed whole exome sequencing in the blood of all available family members and used PhenoDB to identify potential candidate gene variants with recessive or dominant modes of inheritance.RESULTS Out of twenty-four patients of European descent selected to participate in the study,eleven patients,eight parent-child pairs affected by IBD,were included in the genetic anticipation analysis.Median difference in age at diagnosis between two successive generations was 16.5 years,with earlier age at onset in the younger generations.In most of the affected members,the disease harbored similar gastrointestinal and extraintestinal involvement but was more aggressive among the younger generations.TL was not associated with earlier age at onset or more severe disease in members of successive generations affected by IBD.NOD2 gene mutations were present in the Crohn’s disease patients of one family.However,no gene variants were identified as potential candidates for inheritance.CONCLUSION Telomere shortening appears unlikely to be involved in mechanisms of possible genetic anticipation in IBD.Further studies using a larger sample size are required to confirm or refute our findings.

Relation Between Both Sides of the Taiwan StraitsIn Anticipation of the Trends of Its Development

In the issue of January, 2002, the magazine "Relation Between Both Sides of the Taiwan Straits" published by the Association of the Relation Between the Both Sides of the Taiwan Straits, a signed essay was carried out, stating that the development of the relation between the both sides last year, anticipates the trends of such relation in the future.

Paradoxical roles of inhibitory autapse and excitatory synapse in formation of counterintuitive anticipated synchronization

Different from the common delayed synchronization(DS)in which response appears after stimulation,anticipated synchronization(AS)in unidirectionally coupled neurons denotes a counterintuitive phenomenon in which response of the receiver neuron appears before stimulation of the sender neuron,showing an interesting function of brain to anticipate the future.The dynamical mechanism for the AS remains unclear due to complex dynamics of inhibitory and excitatory modulations.In this article,the paradoxical roles of excitatory synapse and inhibitory autapse in the formation of AS are acquired.Firstly,in addition to the common roles such that inhibitory modulation delays and excitatory modulation advances spike,paradoxical roles of excitatory stimulation to delay spike via type-II phase response and of inhibitory autapse to advance spike are obtained in suitable parameter regions,extending the dynamics and functions of the excitatory and inhibitory modulations.Secondly,AS is related to the paradoxical roles of the excitatory and inhibitory modulations,presenting deep understandings to the AS.Inhibitory autapse induces spike of the receiver neuron advanced to appear before that of the sender neuron at first,and then excitatory synapse plays a delay role to prevent the spike further advanced,resulting in the AS as the advance and delay effects realize a dynamic balance.Lastly,inhibitory autapse with strong advance,middle advance,and weak advance and delay effects induce phase drift(spike of the receiver neuron advances continuously),AS,and DS,respectively,presenting comprehensive relationships between AS and other behaviors.The results present potential measures to modulate AS related to brain function.

ANTICIPATED BACKWARD STOCHASTIC VOLTERRA INTEGRAL EQUATIONS WITH JUMPS AND APPLICATIONS TO DYNAMIC RISK MEASURES

In this paper, we focus on anticipated backward stochastic Volterra integral equations(ABSVIEs) with jumps. We solve the problem of the well-posedness of so-called M-solutions to this class of equation, and analytically derive a comparison theorem for them and for the continuous equilibrium consumption process. These continuous equilibrium consumption processes can be described by the solutions to this class of ABSVIE with jumps.Motivated by this, a class of dynamic risk measures induced by ABSVIEs with jumps are discussed.

基于动作条件交互的高效行人过街意图预测

城市化的进程不断加速,人车冲突问题已成为现代社会亟待解决的重大难题。复杂交通场景下,行人横穿马路行为导致交通事故频发,准确、实时地预测行人过街意图对避免人车冲突、提高驾驶安全系数和保障行人安全至关重要。本文提出基于动作条件交互的高效行人过街意图预测框架(efficient action-conditioned interaction pedestrian crossing intention anticipation framework,EAIPF)来预测行人过街意图。EAIPF引入行人动作编码模块增强多模态动作模式下的表征能力,挖掘深层骨架上下文信息。同时,引入场景对象交互模块挖掘与对象交互信息,理解交通场景中高级语义线索。最后,意图预测模块融合行人动作特征和对象交互特征,实现行人过街意图的鲁棒预测。所提出的方法在两个公共数据集JAAD和PIE上验证算法性能,准确率分别达到了89%和90%,表明本文方法可以在复杂交通场景下准确预测行人穿越意图。

是谁在努力——医疗募捐情境下力量情绪诉求类型对个体捐赠意愿的影响研究

力量情绪诉求是一种被广泛应用于医疗募捐情境下的诉求策略,但学术领域对其的研究仍处于起步阶段。本文通过3项实验探究了不同类型的力量情绪诉求对于个体捐赠意愿的影响及机制。研究发现,两种类型的力量诉求均会对个体捐赠意愿产生积极的影响,但自我力量诉求主要通过预期内疚来提高个人捐赠意愿,而他人力量诉求主要通过感知自助来提高个人捐赠意愿。低权力感个体更加偏好自我力量诉求,而高权力感个体更加偏好他人力量诉求。本文不仅丰富了慈善领域关于情绪诉求的理论研究成果,还为医疗募捐网站的募捐实践提供了管理启示。

考虑初始风速与机端故障稳态电压跌落程度的直驱风机故障响应特性分类及其判别方法研究

对电力系统进行安全分析时,往往需要对各种预想场景进行仿真。随着风电的大量接入,对风电场提出适用于预想故障分析的等值建模方法变得十分重要,而根据风机故障后的动态特性对其进行分群则是等值建模的基础。各风机在故障后的动态响应特性不仅受其控制方式的影响,还受到运行风速和故障严重程度的影响,而一般情况下风机控制的响应速度较快,可以认为在故障持续期间风机能够运行至故障稳态。基于此,提出考虑初始风速及机端故障稳态电压跌落程度的风电机组故障响应特性分类及判别方法,以此作为风机分群的依据。首先针对永磁直驱风机(direct-driven permanent magnet synchronous generator,PMSG)故障过程中无功优先控制、故障恢复期间有功斜坡恢复的控制策略,分析其在不同风速条件下故障后所有可能的响应特性,将初始风速与故障稳态电压作为分类指标,从机理上找到直驱风机进入各类响应特性的边界条件;然后,提出利用预想故障信息的风机机端故障稳态电压计算方法,在此基础上提出适用于预想故障的直驱风机分群方法;最后,通过对风电场进行详细建模仿真,验证所提分群方法的正确性。

慢性病患者预期病耻感量表的汉化及信度效度检验

目的:对慢性病患者预期病耻感量表(the Chronic Illness Anticipated Stigma Scale,CIASS)进行汉化,并在永久性肠造口患者中进行信度和效度检验,以期为我国永久性肠造口患者预期病耻感的评估提供测量工具。方法:采用Brislin翻译模式,对英文版CIASS量表进行翻译、文化调试,并进行预调查。于2023年3月—12月,采用中文版CIASS量表对湖南省3家三级甲等医院的541例永久性肠造口患者进行调查,以验证量表的信度和效度。结果:中文版CIASS量表的I-CVI为0.853~1.000,S-CVI/UA为0.865,S-CVI/Ave为0.973。KMO值为0.893,Bartlett’s球形检验χ~2值为1 128.531(P<0.01)。共提取出3个公因子,累计方差贡献率为68.725%。验证性因子分析结果显示,模型适配度良好,χ~2/df为2.027,RMSEA为0.073,GFI为0.915,CFI为0.918,IFI为0.936,TLI为0.922。中文版CIASS量表总分与社会影响量表总分呈正相关(r=0.655,P<0.01)。量表总Cronbach’s α系数为0.925,“朋友和家人”“工作同事”及“医护人员”3个维度的Cronbach’s α系数分别为0.907、0.893和0.916,重测信度为0.872。结论:中文版CIASS量表共包含3个维度、12个条目,在永久性肠造口患者中的信度和效度较好,可用于评估永久性肠造口患者的预期病耻感水平。