Air pollution and the domestic value-added for Chinese exporters

This paper evaluates the causal effect of air pollution on the share of domestic value-added in exports for Chinese exporters.Precipitation is employed as an instrument for air pollution to alleviate the endogeneity.Our baseline instrument variable estimation identifies a significant and negative effect of air pollution on the share of domestic value added in exports.Specifically,each 1 mg/m^(3) increase in yearly PM_(2.5) exposure is associated with 3.1447 units decrease of the domestic value-added rate of firms’exports.This result holds when wind speed,air flow index and thermal inversions are used as alternative instruments.Further,it is shown that air pollution is detrimental to the health of employees,and also has negative effect on firms’productivity as well as firms’innovation capacity.All of these may have a negative effect on domestic production and therefore reduce the share of value added done domestically.Lastly,greater effect is found for the central region,the east of Hu Huanyong line,cities of low altitude and high pressure,and also for foreign-invested firms.This paper provides empirical evidence that air pollution may affect the organization of global production,i.e.,the share of domestic value added in Chinese exports,and it certainly contributes to more comprehensive understanding of the effect of air pollution.

Export Value-Added of China’s Manufacturing Sector:Estimation and Mechanism Analysis

Estimation of domestic and overseas value-added of manufacturing sector is an important and difficult subject for the science-based evaluation of a country＇s trade interests under global value chain. Traditional HIY approach overestimates the domestic value- added of export. Although Koopman＇s method made certain improvements, it cannot utilize traditional I/O matrix and direct input coefficient matrix under the condition of incomplete information. By creating GAMS model, this paper addresses the above-mentioned problems and employs an improved model for the estimation of variations in domestic and overseas value-added of Chinese exports between 2002 and 2012. Our results indicate that by neglecting the export of processing trade, HIY approach overestimates the domestic value- added ratio of Chinese exports. As more imported intermediate inputs have been used in the export of processing trade, the estimation result of this paper have corrected deviations in the forecast of overseas value-added ratio and its tendencies based on HIY method Further analysis of specific factors of domestic value-added of export led to the discovery that the domestic value-added of export of processing trade and mixed trade is highly vulnerable to the impact of international capital inflow. It can be seen that the improved method for the estimation of value-added has indeed corrected the deviations in the estimation of China＇s value-added. In conclusion, China should accelerate the development of export of non- processing trade and trade in high-end services, and balance the relationship of export between local firms and foreign-funded firms, with a view to improving trade dependence and increasing the trade status of Chinese manufaeturing firms in global value chain.

Research on the obstacles and strategies of turning export to domestic sales for export processing zone enterprises

At present, the international economy continues growing slowly, and the foreign trade situation is not optimistic. In addition, domestic demand are strongly encouraged and expanded in China. Compared with a prosperous domestic market, enterprises in the export processing zone have few advantages. Domestic sales have become an inevitable trend. It is also beneficial for the transformation and upgrading of export processing zone. However, it is quite difficult to open up the domestic market for export-oriented enterprises in the area. They will encounter many obstacles. The government and enterprises should take appropriate measures to facilitate the enterprise to turn export to domestic sales.

Domestic Demand-Based Economic Globalization： Strategic Choice for China to Profit from the Second Wave of Globalization

China＇s first wave of economic globalization is characterized by its full utilization of foreign advanced, especially innovative, production factors in the domestic market to develop its innovation economy. China＇s participation in global economy can be described as fully utilizing domestic low-end production factors through foreign markets. This type of participation has been overdone. As China aims to engage in a second wave of economic globalization, the focus is to implement an in-depth globalization strategy under the condition of expanding domestic demands, namely and to develop the global economy based on domestic demands, The purpose is to achieve an economic rebalance with the world and help China out of its overcapacity predicament in weaker global economic climates. Moreover, it will bring China a chance to introduce foreign advanced factors to accelerate growth and develop innovation economy by turning economic crisis in the West into opportunities.

Relationship between the Environment and Economic Growth in China via Exports: A Perspective of Ecological Impact (2000-2014)

China’s swift and substantial economic growth over the past 20 years has made the country one of the top industrial powers in the world, second only the United States. From the perspective of ecology and the impact on the environment produced by economic and industrial growth, the exports that have driven rapid growth have also resulted in an alarming level of environmental pollution in major Chinese cities. Research has shown that the Chinese government’s investment in bringing down pollution levels has been insufficient and ineffective. The monetary amount allocated for pollution reduction has barely reached 0.15% of the country’s GDP and has failed to meaningfully reverse the effects of industrialization, including increased exports and economic growth rates affecting China’s ecology. The present study investigated China’s ecological situation in terms of the industrial production that has generated its level of exports, with special focus on problems related to water, air, and solid waste. An econometric analysis was conducted to determine the relationship between the main variables. The exports and GDP (dependent variable), air pollution, water pollution, and industrial solid waste (independent variables) were provided by the Institute of Statistics and the Environment Institute of China for this study. The data was managed in Econometric Eviews 7.0 software and yielded an adjusted R2 of 96.09% (high correlation) with an interesting correlation between the exports and three independent variables;after subsequent variable analysis, we found that investments in water and industrial solid waste were not significant (i.e., that said investments have failed to solve the pollution problem). It is necessary to review the Chinese investment policy with special attention to these variables to appropriately respond to China’s ecological crisis.

Technological Sophistication of China's Industrial Finished Goods for Export——A New Approach to Estimation

Based on the perspective of international vertical specialization,this paper creates a set of new approach to estimating the domestic technological sophistication(DTS)of export goods.Deducting the values of imported intermediate inputs contained in export goods,this paper conducts an estimation and analysis of the DTS of China's industrial finished goods for export between 2002 and 2007 at the national,industrial and regional levels.Results of our study indicate that:(1) the DTS of China's export goods demonstrates an overall tendency of steady increase and its evolving pattern demonstrates distinctive differences across sectors;(2) the DTS is on the increase for natural resources sectors,low-technology sectors,medium-technology sectors and certain high-technology sectors including transportation equipment manufacturing,general and dedicated equipment manufacturing,and electrical machinery and apparatus manufacturing while the DTS is on the significant decrease for electronic and communication equipment manufacturing and instruments,meters and other metering devices manufacturing;and(3) provinces with relatively high average values of DTS of export goods are primarily located in China's eastern region while provinces with significant DTS growth rates are mainly located in China's central and western regions and the gaps of DTS of export goods among China's eastern,central and western regions have a tendency of convergence.

The Dual Effects of Global Value Chain Embeddedness on Chinese Exports’ Technological Sophistication

This paper develops a framework for the assessment of global value chain embeddedness based on the dual structure of product embeddedness and functional embeddedness and provides a theoretical demonstration of the dual effects of the level, structure and the value sources of global value chain embeddedness on export technology sophistication. From there, the paper carries out an estimation of non-competitive input- output table using quadratic optimized algorithm with differentiation between processing trade and general trade to arrive at various indicators of foreign value-added ratio that reflect the level of global value chain embeddedness. On this basis, the panel econometric model for 27 manufacturing sectors of China between 2001 and 2010 is employed to test the effect of foreign value-added ratio on the technology sophistication of manufacturing export. Our research indicates that by taking part in division of labor in the global value chain and acquiring foreign intermediate inputs, China＇s manufacturing sector has increased its export technology sophistication. It also indicates that, compared with such inputs as raw materials and parts and components, service input has great contributions to technology improvement. With the direct contributions of foreign value-added under control, the foreign value-added from developed countries has a restrictive effect on the R＆D activities of export manufacturing, which gives rise to the one-way technology reliance on dominant enterprises of the value chain and the ＂low-end lock-up＂ effect; meanwhile, the method of embeddedness that takes advantage of the foreign value-added of other countries is more dependent on the indigenous R＆D capacity of export enterprises and thus more favorable to the improvement of export technology sophistication.

数字经济赋能企业出口韧性

利用中国工业企业数据库和中国海关数据库识别数字经济发展对企业出口韧性的因果效应。结果表明:数字经济发展可以显著提升企业出口韧性,这一结论在使用工具变量、改变关键变量衡量指标、改变回归样本、排除其他竞争性解释等稳健性检验后依然成立。机制检验显示,成本节约效应和国内价值链延伸效应是数字经济提升企业出口韧性的重要机制。异质性分析发现,数字经济发展对东部地区企业、一般贸易企业、民营企业和外资企业出口韧性的提升作用更加显著,数字经济对企业出口韧性的提升带来的是“数字红利”而非“数字鸿沟”。

区域贸易协定中竞争政策规则对出口国内增加值的影响研究

以64个国家1995—2017年141个区域贸易协定为样本,在测度竞争政策规则深度的基础上,实证考察其对出口国内增加值的影响。研究结果表明:竞争政策规则的强化有助于提升缔约方出口国内增加值。该结果经过稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析结果表明,缔约方制度质量加强了竞争政策规则对出口国内增加值的促进作用,但区域贸易协定灵活度会阻碍该促进作用。区分条款发现,横向原则与国有企业条款可以促进出口国内增加值;区分国别发现,竞争政策规则对不同经济发展水平国家出口国内增加值存在异质性影响。进一步分析发现,竞争政策规则的强化对第三方国家存在溢出效应。因此,中国应有意识地强化竞争政策的基础性地位,合理设计竞争政策条款并逐步提升执行度,打造更为开放透明、公平竞争的市场环境。

中国各地区内外贸模式及其融入新发展格局研究

中国各省(区、市)如何融入新发展格局,需要深刻认识各省(区、市)对内对外贸易特征。综合定性分析和定量分析结果,中国各省(区、市)的内外贸模式可以划分为双循环经济、外向型经济、自洽型经济、均衡型经济、内贸型经济、沿边型经济、输入型经济等七种类型。随着中国各地区经济发展形势的不断分化,外向型经济地区的外贸依存度大幅下降,多数地区基础设施投资能力降低,中国经济发展格局面临重塑。各地区要融入新发展格局,一是要提升国际大循环的质量和水平,二是要增强国内大循环的动力,三是要增强经济双循环的安全性和可靠性。

企业出口国内附加值率提升与企业杠杆率

去杠杆是防范和化解重大债务风险的关键举措,而利用实体经济的力量以市场化、法治化方式积极稳妥地降低企业杠杆率是新时期稳步推进结构性去杠杆的重要方向。基于2000—2013年中国工业企业数据库和中国海关进出口数据库的匹配数据,从全球价值链视角探讨企业出口国内附加值率提升影响企业去杠杆的方向和内在机理。结果表明:企业出口国内附加值率提升会显著降低企业的杠杆率。异质性分析结果显示,企业出口国内附加值率提升对不同所有制、不同贸易方式、不同行业企业去杠杆都有积极的影响。进一步的机制检验结果显示,由企业出口国内附加值率提升带来的盈利能力提高、外资弱化效应以及商业信用增加效应是主要影响渠道。因此,政府和企业可从市场角度特别是企业自身竞争力提高方面探索降低和化解金融风险的路径。

内需规模、内需结构与企业出口产品质量

在厘清内需规模和内需结构影响企业出口产品质量的内在机理的基础上,运用2011—2015年中国工业企业和海关出口数据,实证检验内需规模和内需结构对企业出口产品质量的提升效应。主要结论是:(1)国内庞大的内需规模和日益升级的内需结构均有利于促进企业提升出口产品质量,这种提升效应在民营企业、外资企业、一般贸易企业、既出口也内销的企业以及出口至高收入国家或地区的企业样本中更为突出;(2)内需结构升级能够强化内需规模对企业出口产品质量的提升效应;(3)内需规模通过驱动技术创新、促进高级要素集聚促进企业提升出口产品质量,内需结构则主要通过技术创新效应促进企业出口产品质量升级;(4)较高的国内市场化水平有利于释放内需规模和内需结构的市场竞争效应,较高的国内市场一体化程度则有利于发挥内需结构的高级要素集聚效应,进而促进企业提升出口产品质量。

环境规制对我国出口国内附加值率的影响研究

在“双碳”目标和经济高质量发展的要求下,我国出口面临着更大的环境压力,如何利用合理的环境规制政策来实现贸易高质量发展值得关注。本文从理论和实证两个层面阐述并检验了环境规制对我国出口国内附加值率的影响及其机制。结果显示,环境规制和我国出口国内附加值率呈现非线性的“U”型关系,即:环境规制政策实施初期,在成本效应的影响下,环境规制对出口国内附加值率具有明显的负外部性,而随着政策效应的延续,环境规制政策可以倒逼企业开展创新活动、改善能源结构和资源配置,对出口国内附加值率又会呈现明显的正外部性。为此,国家层面,政府应把握好环境规制强度,加强环境规制政策的顶层设计;行业层面,政府应依据行业特点制定差异化政策,积极发挥行业协会在环境规制中的作用;企业层面,企业应积极利用环境规制政策的正外部性,融入全球绿色技术创新网络。

外贸内卷化、出口退税与企业出口国内附加值率

长期以来,我国出口企业面临来自国内外同类企业的双重竞争,容易出现为抢夺代工订单和抢占市场份额而竞相压价、生产低端同质产品的“外贸内卷化”现象,这是推动我国经贸高质量发展亟需探讨的问题。以微观企业为研究对象,研究外贸内卷化对企业出口国内附加值率的影响,进而分析出口退税政策在这一过程中是否能够起到调节作用。结果表明:外贸内卷化对企业出口国内附加值率有负面影响,而出口退税政策有助于缓解这种负面影响。机制分析发现,出口退税通过企业利润提升效应和一般贸易占比提升效应帮助企业缓解外贸内卷化的负面影响。因此,应进一步完善出口退税政策,实行不完全且有差别的增值税退税政策,以更好地发挥其引导企业出口行为选择的作用,走出外贸内卷化困境。

中国情境下商品流通对异质性企业贸易理论的扩展

异质性企业贸易理论具备诠释作用的先决条件是商品流通渠道的顺畅无阻,而某些外部事件所造成的冲击会阻碍人员与商品的正常流通,这会削弱维持经济运行的市场交易动能。当把研究视角放在跨越领土边界的国际贸易时,其所受到的冲击要比国内贸易更加严重,甚至会出现完全阻断国际商品流通渠道的情形。对比异质性企业贸易理论的基本观点,中国在特定时期内应对外部冲击所采取的出口产品转内销实践与原理论难以相容。尽管不能因为特殊情况就否定经济理论的贡献,但依托外在冲击所造成的贸易阻断状况以及帮扶性公共政策的实际影响去进一步思考理论的成立条件,会有新的发现并有望扩展原有的理论。通过构建生产者尽力追求盈利、理性消费者想要获得最大满足与政策制定者为民谋利益的三维决策框架,研究发现能和三方最优选择相容的出口产品转内销的具体举措,主要体现在如何让国内商品流通渠道变得更为畅通,从而在实践层面指明了利用商品流通顺畅程度拓展异质性企业贸易理论的具体方向。在加快构建新发展格局以及建设全国统一大市场的背景下,维持本土市场主体需求的安全与稳定具有必要性,这亦是异质性企业贸易理论与商品流通顺畅程度相结合的理论内涵之一。

“营改增”对中国全球价值链升级的影响——来自城市层面的经验证据

全球价值链升级是我国双循环新发展格局下提升国际循环质量和水平的重要内容,“营改增”是减税降费、促进经济转型升级的重大举措。文章基于中国海关数据库的微观数据和OECD的跨国投入产出表,测算城市层面全球价值链升级状况,实证分析“营改增”对城市沿全球价值链升级的影响及作用机制。研究结果表明,“营改增”显著促进全球价值链升级,表现为“营改增”提高了城市的出口国内增加值率、上游度和全球价值链位置指数。进一步研究发现:“营改增”通过促进城市专业化分工,提升城市创新水平,提高城市生产率,进而推动城市沿全球价值链升级;在中西部、税负较高、金融市场化程度较低和小规模纳税人较少的城市,其影响更为显著。

中国服装企业外销转内销的发展现状与建议

为探究在国际市场动荡以及多边贸易冲突加剧的大环境下,中国服装企业由外销向内销转型发展的可行性,通过总结中国服装企业外销转内销的发展现状与困境,分析其在外销转内销的战略下需要面临的风险和挑战,提出多维度的策略和建议。研究表明,大环境外需缩减、东南亚国家竞争企业的强势崛起,以及服装生产成本的大幅度提升等因素均造成中国服装企业在国际市场上的竞争优势逐渐削弱,而中国国内服装消费市场的蓬勃发展、中国政府对企业回流转型的大力政策支持也进一步催化服装企业由外销向内销转型;同时结合中国服装企业外销转内销战略中有关经营思维、竞争要素、品牌影响、终端市场等方面的挑战提出发展建议,以期为中国服装企业在进行相同转型时提供理论支持与战略启示。

Does the Domestic Value Added Induced by China's Exports Really Belong to China?

Since 2001, the exports of foreign-invested enterprises （FIEs） have accounted for more than 50percent of China＇s total exports. As foreign capital occupies a high proportion of the total capital of FIEs, most FIEs ＇ capital gains are foreign factor income. Although these gains are calculated as apart of China＇s GDP, they do not belong to China＇s national income. To determine the real contribution of exports to China ＂s welfare, the present paper analyses the impact of exports on China ＂s national income using a non-competitive input output model capturing processing trade. The results show that every US$1000 of China＇s exports generates US$506.8 of national income. The real contribution of exports to China ＂s welfare is much smaller than what we expected. This suggests that China should endeavor to improve the gains from international markets orfind another engine to maintain its economic growth.

国内国际双循环联动与高技术产业出口韧性

选取2008—2022年中国238个地级及以上城市面板数据,实证检验国内国际双循环联动对高技术产业出口韧性的影响及其内在机制。研究发现,国内国际双循环联动能够显著提升高技术产业出口韧性。机制检验表明,国内国际双循环联动可通过提升技术创新水平的途径,间接增强高技术产业出口韧性。异质性分析显示,国内国际双循环联动对Ⅰ型及以上大城市的高技术产业出口韧性促进效应更显著。鉴于此,应增强国内国际两种资源联动效应、着力提升高技术企业关键技术创新能力,以期提升高技术产业出口韧性、加速贸易强国建设进程。

稳健外交关系如何影响企业出口国内增加值率

本文利用2000~2013年中国工业企业数据库与海关贸易数据库的合并数据测度了企业出口国内增加值率,在此基础上研究双边外交关系发展对中国企业出口国内增加值率的影响。研究发现,双边外交关系发展会提高企业出口国内增加值率,该结果经过变量替换、更换回归方法等稳健性检验后依旧成立。机制检验表明,双边外交关系发展对企业出口国内增加值率的影响主要通过降低国内外中间品相对价格和提高企业加成率两条途径实现。异质性分析发现,双边外交关系发展会显著提高低技术企业出口国内增加值率,但对高技术企业出口国内增加值率却表现为抑制作用;与“一带一路”沿线国家相比,双边外交关系发展对企业出口国内增加值率的提升作用在非“一带一路”沿线国家更大。进一步分析表明,金融危机、加征关税和经济政策不确定性会削弱双边外交关系发展对企业出口国内增加值率的提升作用。