EI NIO PHENOMENON AND EXTENDED ASSOCIATE PATTERN ANALYSIS

To study the causes of El Nino Phenomenon the Extended Associate PatternAnalysis (EAPA) is set up with monthly sea surface wind stress and precipitation besides Sea LevelPressure (SLP) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in or over the Pacific and related seas since 1979in present paper. The results show that El Nino Phenomenon means a SST redistribution, coveringalmost the whole Pacific that needs a huge amount of energy provided by air-sea interaction in themost Pacific regions; It is the wester burst and wind convergence, coming from meddle latitudesdirectly, instead of Kelvin waves that produce the strong SST warm signal in Nino regions; Twonegative SLP anomalies in middle of the North and South Pacific, most likely produced by the averageair pressure decreasing effect of explosive cyclones through precipitation, and the positive SLPanomaly o-ver the Asia-Australia land bridge, coming mainly from the south hemisphere with a littleinfluence from the Asian continent, are the three major causes for El Nino onset, they work togetherto produce anomalous wind convergence in Nino regions and wester burst in middle of the North andSouth Pacific that result in a warm tongue and cold pincers gearing together; Basically, during itsearly stage the ocean is forced by the atmosphere, while during its late stage the atmosphere isforced by the ocean.

Statistical analysis of surface hydrography and circulation variations in northern South China Sea

To study the variations in surface hydrography and circulation in northern South China Sea (NSCS), rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) and extended associate pattern analysis (EAPA) are used with daily sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) datasets cover- ing 1 126 days from American Navy Experimental Real-Time East Asian Seas Ocean Nowcast System in this paper. Results show that in summer, the SCS Diluted Water Expansion (SDWE) is the most dominant factor con- trolling SSS variations in the NSCS. The remarkable SDWE usually begins in early July, reaches its maximum in middle August and weakens in late September. In summer flourishing period, its low saline core is just limited between 21°N and 22°N because of strong surface anomalous anticyclonic circulation in the NSCS. In early or late stage, the anomalous anticyclonic circulation becomes weak or turns into cyclonic one, thus the weak SCS diluted water can disperse. And its influence on the SSS variations has obviously decreased. The Kuroshio intrusion is the second controlling factor, and it has the almost opposite seasonal or intraseasonal oscillations and spatial charac- teristics to the SDWE. Winter Kuroshio Intrusion (WKI) begins in early November and lasts about three months. Intraseasonal Kuroshio Intrusion (IKI) takes place at any seasons. The westward Ekman transport produced by the north anomaly of East Asia Monsoon (EAM) pushes warmer and more saline seawater into the NSCS through the Bashi Strait and seems to decide the intensity of seasonal and intraseasonal Kuroshio intrusions.

厄尔尼诺事件的成因与预报

为研究ElNi no事件的形成机理、建立其统计学预报模式,该文提出"拓展伴随模态分析"的新方法并将其应用于实测月平均SLP(或1000毫巴位势高度)和SST距平资料。分析结果表明:中高纬度高压移动所形成的异常热带亚澳大陆桥高压、北太平洋涛动的中纬度低压和构成南方涛动的异常海洋低压三者之间的相互作用是ElNi no事件演变过程中的决定因素;其形成和前发展阶段主要是大气驱动海洋,异常东亚或中亚高压与后二者的结合诱发东部型Ni no事件而异常西亚、南印度洋或南澳大陆高压与后二者的结合诱发中部型ElNi no事件;其后发展和消亡阶段主要是海洋驱动大气,在异常南、北太平洋中纬度海洋低压和亚澳大陆桥高压共同作用下形成的、以热带西太平洋为中心的钳型异常低温水舌牵引着上方的钳型异常海面高压向东北延伸使得阿留申低压回归原处,向东南延伸使得南方涛动的海洋低压减弱变性并造成了ElNi no事件的衰亡。其预报结果为:2003年将是一个正常偏冷年份。

简易海洋同化数据中的厄尔尼诺现象

为研究在厄尔尼诺现象演变过程中海气相互作用的性态特征,该文再次应用拓展伴随模态分析于简易海洋同化数据(SODA data).结果表明:通过相互作用形成厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜现象的海洋与大气具有明显不同的性态,气候系统中并不存在一个相对独立的热带太平洋大气变异,但是的确存在一个相对独立的热带太平洋海洋变异;原因在于大气是底部界面受热而海洋是顶部界面受热,从而导致前者具有较后者强烈得多的斜压不稳定性和能够覆盖大部分热带太平洋的赤道辐合带; 再次证实了正是直接来自中纬度海域的西风爆发和海面风辐聚导致赤道太平洋上层海水的东向移动和经向辐聚造就了厄尔尼诺所特有的增温信号.

Seasonality and causes of the Yellow Sea Warm Current

To study the seasonality and causes of the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) in detail, rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) and extended associate pattern analysis are adopted with daily sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) datasets covering 1126 days from American Navy Experimental Real-Time East Asian Seas Ocean Nowcast System in the present paper. Results show that in the Yellow and East China Seas, the YSWC is a mean barotropic flow as compensation of winter-monsoon-driven surface currents, which has been directly observed. When East Asia winter monsoon weakens, so do the meridional pressure gradient of the surface seawater and the YSWC, while the transversal pressure gradient changes rather slowly that results in the YSWC left turning. In addition, there is southward mean flow compensation of summer-monsoon-driven surface currents, which actually was also directly observed.

E1 Nio phenomenon in simple ocean data assimilation data

To study how the air and sea interact with each other during El Nifio/La Nifia onsets, extended associate pattern analysis （EAPA） is adopted with the simple ocean data assimilation （SODA） data. The results show that as El Niйo/La Niйa＇s parents their behaviors are quite different, there does not exist a relatively independent tropical atmosphere but does exist a relatively independent tropical Pacific Ocean because the air is heated from the bottom surface instead of the top surface and of much stronger baroclinic instability than the sea and has a very large inter-tropical convergence zone covering the most tropical Pacific Ocean. The idea that it is the wester burst and wind convergence, coming from middle latitudes directly that produce the seawater eastward movement and meridional convergence in the upper levels and result in the typical E1 Nifio sea surface temperature warm signal is confirmed again.