Development potential of the Northeast Passage based on a multinomial-logit-based stochastic user equilibrium model

We developed a multinomial-logit-based stochastic user equilibrium(MNL SUE)model incorporating time value of cargo to investigate future proportions of cargo flow through the Northeast Passage(NEP)and the Suez Canal Route between representative ports.We studied navigation during the ice-free and ice-covered seasons using sea ice projections for 2070 based on 1991–2021 NEP ice data.Sailing distance and time between selected ports are lower via the NEP than the Suez Canal Route.Under the scenario of year-round operation of the NEP,the proportion of cargo flow through the NEP is estimated to be 68.5%,which represents considerable commercial potential.Proportions are higher for the ice-free season and for ports at high latitudes.We also assessed flow under different scenarios.Under the scenario of fuel price increase,proportion of flow through the NEP in the ice-covered season is expected to increase.If time value is ignored,flow through the NEP is expected to increase all year round.If shippers become more cost-conscious,flow through the NEP is also expected to increase.

Fair Value Disclosure, External Appraisers, and the Reliability of Fair Value Measurements

By developing an analytical model, this paper examines the role of the ＂external appraiser＂ as a tool to face the informational asymmetry issue related to fair value measurements. A comparison between such a signaling mechanism and a ＂full fair value disclosure＂ is firstly carried out, highlighting variables affecting the efficiency and the effectiveness of both information strategies. Then, recovering the traditional distinction between ＂protective disclosure＂ （hard information） and ＂informative disclosure＂ （soft information）, this paper demonstrates how the former could significantly increase the positive effects associated to an employment of an independent valuer, reaching some conclusions useful to the standard setting process.

Synthesization of high-capacity auto-associative memories using complex-valued neural networks

In this paper, a novel design procedure is proposed for synthesizing high-capacity auto-associative memories based on complex-valued neural networks with real-imaginary-type activation functions and constant delays. Stability criteria dependent on external inputs of neural networks are derived. The designed networks can retrieve the stored patterns by external inputs rather than initial conditions. The derivation can memorize the desired patterns with lower-dimensional neural networks than real-valued neural networks, and eliminate spurious equilibria of complex-valued neural networks. One numerical example is provided to show the effectiveness and superiority of the presented results.

Green Value Chain： A Case Study in Turkey about the Relationships among Antecedents, Initiatives and Results of Green Value Chain Implementations

The present study was conducted to determine the green value chain implementations of large and medium size businesses and to investigate the relationships among antecedents, initiatives and results of green value chain implementations. The antecedents of green value chain implementations were considered from four dimensions namely regulations, public concerns, expected competitive advantage and top management commitment; green value chain initiatives were considered from three dimensions namely green primary activities, green internal support activities and green external support activities; the results of green value chain implementations were considered from two dimensions namely economic performance and socio-ecologic performance. A model was created according to the objectives of the study and hypotheses were formed. Multiple regression analyses were performed to investigate the relationships between the antecedents and initiatives of green value chain implementations. A relationship was not observed between green primary activities and economic and socio-ecologic performance. While a positive relationship was observed between green external support activities and economic performance, a positive relationship was observed between green internal support activities and both economic and socio-ecologic performance.

Flash角色动画控制系统的设计与测试分析

本文探究了Flash角色动画控制系统的设计要点,并对其功能、性能和人机交互进行了测试。该系统基于Actionscript3.0开发,通过显示器、键盘、鼠标等I/O设备实现用户与系统的交互,利用API接口将用户编辑的指令发送给图形管理器、输入管理器等设备,完成角色创建与移动、音乐的播放与停止等操作;操作信息和运行信息被保存在数据库中。在Windows10环境下进行了黑盒测试,从测试情况看,该系统用户界面美观友好、简洁清晰,角色创建与拖动,关键帧动画播放以及运动模拟等功能均可正常实现,并且系统实时反馈效果较好,较好地满足了设计要求。

User Association and Power Allocation for UAV-Assisted Networks: A Distributed Reinforcement Learning Approach

Unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)can be employed as aerial base stations(BSs)due to their high mobility and flexible deployment.This paper focuses on a UAV-assisted wireless network,where users can be scheduled to get access to either an aerial BS or a terrestrial BS for uplink transmission.In contrast to state-of-the-art designs focusing on the instantaneous cost of the network,this paper aims at minimizing the long-term average transmit power consumed by the users by dynamically optimizing user association and power allocation in each time slot.Such a joint user association scheduling and power allocation problem can be formulated as a Markov decision process(MDP).Unfortunately,solving such an MDP problem with the conventional relative value iteration(RVI)can suffer from the curses of dimensionality,in the presence of a large number of users.As a countermeasure,we propose a distributed RVI algorithm to reduce the dimension of the MDP problem,such that the original problem can be decoupled into multiple solvable small-scale MDP problems.Simulation results reveal that the proposed algorithm can yield lower longterm average transmit power consumption than both the conventional RVI algorithm and a baseline algorithm with myopic policies.

Value and Development Countermeasures for Modern Agriculture in Suzhou

With advance of urbanization and industrialization, modern agricultural development in Chinas economic developed areas (CEDAs) is greatly restricted by traditional concept. To speed up the development of modern agriculture in CEDAs, this paper takes Suzhou City as an example from theories supporting modern agricultural development. It demonstrates agriculture in CEDAs plays an important role in adjusting supply of agricultural and sideline products, reserving rural labor employment, protecting ecological environment, increasing farmers income, and passing on agricultural culture. It contends that CEDAs should take reserving basic farmland as prerequisite; take adequate supply of primary agricultural products, protection of living environment, maintenance of agricultural landscape, and inheritance of farming culture as objectives; establish perfect modern agricultural system through firmly setting up modern agricultural value concept; increase local public finance input; increase agricultural functional value from technical and management levels, to realize increase of farmers income, promote sustainable development of agriculture, promote integrated urban and rural development, as well as harmonious development of human and nature.

Investigating the Effect of External Alliances on Innovation Behavior in the European Union Industrial Sector

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of collaboration with suppliers and lead users in new product development (NPD) on innovation behavior. Such collaborations are regarded as advanced forms of external alliances. Survey data from two hundred and fifty-two manufacturing companies were collected from the European Union. The results of multiple regression analysis showed that both suppliers’ and lead users’ collaboration in NPD significantly affected innovation behavior. Lead users’ collaboration showed higher impact on innovation behavior compared with suppliers’ collaboration.

如何以多价值链协同实现制造企业生产预测优化?——以电力制造企业为例

制造业是一个国家能源和经济发展的基础化产业。为了能够有效保障企业利益,提高企业竞争力,需要对制造企业生产进行准确预测。本文从多价值链协同的角度分析生产、营销、供应及服务等过程,利用随机森林(RF)—天牛须优化(BAS)—卷积神经网络(CNN)方法构建三阶段生产预测模型,并以北京某电力制造企业为例进行实证分析,验证预测优化效果。研究结果表明,利用该模型进行生产预测优化,相比于其他预测方法来说,能够有效提高预测精度。同时多价值链协同能够更好地体现内外部价值链之间的相互关系,协同下的生产预测优化对制造企业来说具有更加重要的意义。

电商直播中主播互动性、感知价值与用户参与行为——基于SOR理论的视角

随着社交媒体平台的快速发展,直播销售已成为电子商务的重要部分。然而,电商直播的特性在于实时互动,如何通过有效的互动获得更好的直播效果,特别是主播互动类型如何影响用户参与行为的机制尚不清晰。针对这一问题,本研究基于SOR模型,运用Python爬虫技术获取真实的直播动态数据,探究了任务型和关系型互动对不同用户参与行为(在线观看、点赞与评论)的影响,并研究了感知价值(包括感知信息价值与感知娱乐价值)的中介作用。研究结果显示,任务型互动对于用户评论有显著影响,但对用户在线观看和点赞影响不显著;相比之下,关系型互动对所有因变量均有显著影响。此外,作为中介变量的感知信息价值和感知娱乐价值,在主播互动和用户参与行为之间发挥了部分的中介作用。本研究扩大了SOR理论使用范围,丰富了电商直播中用户参与行为的研究,深化了对电商直播中感知价值的理解,研究结论对提升主播互动策略及优化直播效果具有一定的指导意义。

专精特新企业与ESG表现的经济关系研究

在“十四五”规划以及国家双碳目标下,ESG和绿色发展成为国家重要议题,引导经济向高质量发展转型。本文将ESG理念融入投资决策和经营战略,能够提高企业竞争力,实现可持续发展。文章选取2019—2022年A股上市公司中的部分专精特新企业为样本,实证考察ESG体系对专精特新企业的影响。研究表明:总体上专精特新企业的企业价值与ESG表现呈现正向关系,但非国有企业与ESG表现呈反向关系,年龄较小、规模较小的企业同样呈反向关系,国有企业以及年龄较大、规模较大的企业与ESG表现之间并未呈现类似关系。最后,文章基于研究结论针对各类专精特新企业、金融机构及政府部门提出战略和政策建议,以供参考。

高三学生线上外语学习中的无聊情绪环境因素分析

研究以控制—价值理论为依据,以提升高三学生学习体验及效果、更好地了解和支持其心理健康需求为目的,考查了高三学生在线上外语学习中的无聊情绪水平,并探讨了外部环境各因素对学生外语学习无聊情绪的影响路径和作用机制。通过对461名高三学生的问卷调查和部分学生的访谈,发现在线上教学中,学习者的无聊情绪处于中等水平(M=2.93)。结构方程模型分析结果显示,学生硬件设备、教学活动设计、师生关系等各环境因素以不同路径与强度对学习者线上外语学习无聊感知产生影响。分析归纳各因素揭示出影响高三学生线上外语学习无聊情绪的外部因素关系式为:设备因素>授课因素>人际因素。建议学校及家长采取相应措施对学生线上学习无聊情绪进行积极干预。

企业信息披露的绿色创新效应研究——基于环境、社会和治理的视角

由健康、环境、社会发展等议题引致的社会责任要求正在重塑企业的经营理念。为探析企业践行环境、社会和治理(ESG)理念能否促进经济与环境的相容发展,以2011—2020年沪深两市A股企业数据为样本,实证分析了ESG信息披露对企业绿色创新的影响。研究发现:ESG信息披露有利于促进企业绿色创新,具体表现为提高企业绿色创新数量、提升企业绿色创新质量以及改善企业绿色创新结构。异质性分析发现,ESG信息披露的绿色创新效应在成长期企业、低碳试点城市企业、弱环境敏感型企业以及中国南方企业中更明显。机制检验表明,ESG信息披露主要通过缓解企业融资约束以及强化企业外部监督的途径来促进企业绿色创新。进一步研究还发现,ESG信息披露对企业绿色创新的影响具有信息披露的门槛效应,分维度的ESG信息披露对企业绿色创新的影响有所差异,ESG信息披露的绿色创新效应可以实现生态环保和经济绩效的双重价值。研究结论不仅有助于深化ESG在我国企业发展中的竞争优势,而且为促进企业绿色创新提供经验证据,也为加速实现“双碳”目标以及形成广泛的绿色生产生活方式提供理论支持和决策参考。

中国新世纪水稻生产负外部性评估及时空演变研究

水稻生产间接价值研究集中在生态系统服务功能上,外部性尤其负外部性研究不多,对其评估有利于生态防控和农业永续发展。基于2000—2021年全国各省水稻的面板数据,运用市场价值法和空间自相关等方法,从温室气体排放、化肥污染、农药污染、地膜污染、水资源消耗和农机能源污染方面分析水稻的负外部性价值及其时空演变特征。结果表明:(1)全国水稻生产年均负外部性价值达2080.27×10^(8)元,其中温室气体排放、化肥、农药、地膜污染、水资源消耗和农机能源污染占比分别为35.93%、20.71%、10.27%、9.04%、17.44%和6.61%。(2)以2012年新时代为分界点,负外部性价值总量呈先增后减趋势,体现了新时代生态防控的成效。(3)空间分布异质性强,负外部性价值主要分布在胡焕庸线以东,其中华中、华南、西南、东北和华北稻作区年均负外部性价值分别为1025.45×10^(8)元、426.96×10^(8)元、329.36×10^(8)元、221.52×10^(8)元和61.99×10^(8)元;负外部性价值与地理空间存在全局正相关关系;局部自相关自东南向西北由“高-高”聚集向“低-低”聚集和不显著演变,“高-高”集聚区主要分布在华中和华南稻作区,“低-低”集聚区主要分布在华北稻作区。创新性地从研究对象和动态全局视阈评估了水稻生产负外部性,并从政府引领、市场引导和农户主导方面提出了因应策略。

青海高寒地区6种多年生禾本科牧草产量及营养价值比较分析

【目的】试验旨在对青海高寒地区人工栽培禾本科多年生牧草进行营养价值评价,以期为高原畜牧业的发展和家畜饲草需求提供参考。【方法】以高寒地区常见的冰草、黑麦草、小黑麦、麦宾草、冷地早熟禾和草地早熟禾为研究对象,选用3头成年公牦牛作为瘤胃液供体动物,通过体外产气法结合牧草产草量评定牧草的营养价值。【结果】①小黑麦的鲜草产量和干草产量均显著高于其他牧草(P<0.05)。小黑麦和麦宾草的干鲜比较低,显著低于其他牧草(P<0.05)。②小黑麦的干物质(DM)和粗蛋白质(CP)含量均显著高于冷地早熟禾和草地早熟禾(P<0.05)。草地早熟禾的粗灰分(Ash)、中性洗涤纤维(NDF)和酸性洗涤纤维(ADF)含量均最高。冰草的粗脂肪(EE)含量显著高于其他牧草(P<0.05)。小黑麦的钙(Ca)含量显著高于其他牧草(P<0.05),而磷(P)含量与冰草相同。③小黑麦在24、48和72 h的体外产气量(GP)均显著高于其他牧草(P<0.05),且随时间的推移,各牧草间的产气量呈现上升趋势。④6种栽培牧草体外发酵液的pH范围为6.76~6.98。小黑麦和麦宾草的总挥发性脂肪酸(VFA)、乙酸和丙酸含量与其他牧草间差异显著(P<0.05),小黑麦的丁酸和戊酸含量最高,草地早熟禾的乙丙比显著高于其他牧草(P<0.05)。6种栽培牧草氨态氮(NH 3-N)浓度范围为84.70~112.60 mg/L。冷地早熟禾的体外干物质消化率(IVDMD)显著高于其他牧草(P<0.05)。⑤小黑麦各单位面积营养成分产量最高,均显著高于其他牧草(P<0.05)。【结论】小黑麦的综合生产性能最优,营养价值较高,可以作为青海高寒地区适宜栽培牧草。

改进Petri网下异构跨域用户身份验证方法

在异构跨域用户身份验证时,由于用户身份存在属性特征难以捕捉、状态描述误差大等问题,导致验证精准度较低,为有效解决这一问题,文中提出一种基于改进Petri网的用户身份验证算法。利用改进Petri网反映不同局域网中事物间依赖关系,将异构跨域用户活动模型与Petri网模型转换,采用同步用户的状态变化提取实时状态特征值。通过建立云间身份认证中心,计算用户不同身份代表性词语在一定周期内出现的次数和频率值。提取频率最高的词语,并计算该词语在待验证用户全部代表词语库中的权重值,对比权重值与验证熵值,将得到的验证参数输入到认证中心,输出验证结果。实验结果表明,所提方法在先验节点比例为8%时,验证准确率达到0.9,且召回率和综合指标均在0.6以上,具备一定的抗攻击性,整体实用性能强、利用价值高。

基于决策树的社交网络隐式用户行为数据挖掘方法

为了解决社交网络隐式用户行为数据挖掘过程中关联相似性计算较为困难的问题,提出了基于决策树的社交网络隐式用户行为数据挖掘方法。将社交网络视为包含不同维度的向量空间,计算特定维度上用户的兴趣空间和兴趣点。确定样本属性集后,根据已知行为数据建立测试分支,计算该分支下子集的属性权重,不断迭代直至挖掘到同等属性的数据点为止。测试结果表明:该方法可对不同种类隐式用户行为精准挖掘,目标行为数据查找效果较好,实用性较强。

服务设计视角下地摊经济系统设计研究

将服务设计应用于地摊经济问题当中,通过分析核心群体的用户需求,协调利益相关者集团,构建可持续发展的地摊经济服务系统,并优化系统中的用户体验。通过对现有地摊进行桌面研究和实践调研,分析核心用户的行为与特征,并建立用户模型得出核心用户群体的用户需求,综合考虑系统中的人-机-环境要素,发现地摊系统中存在的问题。利用服务设计的思维与方法优化地摊系统运行的工作及服务流程,并为新的流程提供可视化工具,构建新的地摊经济的服务系统,满足了核心群体需求,并平衡各利益相关者集团。服务设计的思维与方法对于提升地摊经济系统整体价值和用户体验以及协调系统中的利益相关者集团具有重要意义,为解决地摊经济发展问题提供了新的设计思路。

物联网环境下场景驱动用户创新方式与路径研究

伴随物联网技术的应用,场景营销成为一种动态激发用户需求从而反向刺激企业创新的新兴商业模式。为探究用户如何在场景驱动下产生新需求并与企业共创价值,根据场景理论与用户创新相关理论,以场景品牌卡萨帝为案例,采用扎根理论对场景驱动用户创新的方式及路径进行理论化工作。结果表明,消费场景由物理、技术、人文和关系要素构成;用户根据环境、体验、情感、行为、目标等不同导向的场景类型,通过预期差距弥合、消费惯性突破、用户情感追求、体验数据创造及用户知识整合进行创新;场景驱动用户创新路径是以场景要素组合为基础,以用户体验为核心,由企业主导的场景驱动创新和用户主导的用户参与创新交替作用的迭代循环价值共创系统。