Studies on susceptibility to debris flows at regional scale （ioo-looo km2） are important for the protection and management of mountain areas. To reach this objective, routing models, mainly based on land topography,...Studies on susceptibility to debris flows at regional scale （ioo-looo km2） are important for the protection and management of mountain areas. To reach this objective, routing models, mainly based on land topography, can be used to predict susceptible areas rapidly while necessitating few input data. In this research, Flow-R model is implemented to create the susceptibility map for the debris flow of the Vizze Valley （BZ, North-Eastern Italy; 134 km^2）. The analysis considers the model application at local scale for three sub-catchments and then it explores the model upsealing at the regional scale by verifying two methods to generate the source areas of debris-flow initiation. Using data of an extreme event occurred in the Vizze Valley （4 August 2012） and historical information, the modeling verification highlights that the propagation parameters are relatively simple to set in order to obtain correct runout distances. A double DTM filtering - using a threshold for the upslope contributing area （0.1 km^2） and a threshold for the terrain-slope angle （15°） provides a satisfactory prediction of source areas and susceptibility map within the geological conditions of the Vizze Valley.展开更多
Debris flow forecast is an important means of disaster mitigation. However, the accuracy of the statistics-based debris flow forecast is unsatisfied while the mechanism-based forecast is unavailable at the watershed s...Debris flow forecast is an important means of disaster mitigation. However, the accuracy of the statistics-based debris flow forecast is unsatisfied while the mechanism-based forecast is unavailable at the watershed scale because most of existing researches on the initiation mechanism of debris flow took a single slope as the main object. In order to solve this problem, this paper developed a model of debris flow forecast based on the water-soil coupling mechanism at the watershed scale. In this model, the runoff and the instable soil caused by the rainfall in a watershed is estimated by the distrib- uted hydrological model （GBHM） and an instable identification model of the unsaturated soil. Because the debris flow is a special fluid composed of soil and water and has a bigger density, the density esti- mated by the runoff and instable soil mass in a watershed under the action of a rainfall is employed as a key factor to identify the formation probability of debris flow in the forecast model. The Jiangjia Gulley, a typical debris flow valley with a several debris flow events each year, is selected as a case study watershed to test this forecast model of debris flow. According the observation data of Dongchuan Debris Flow Observation and Research Station, CAS located in Jiangjia Gulley, there were 4 debris flow events in 2006. The test results show that the accuracy of the model is satisfied.展开更多
基金granted by the Junior Research Grant Universitàdegli Studi di Padova,year 2013,prot.CPDR138494(“Criticitàidrauliche nel reticolo montano nei riguardi del movimento di detrito legnoso e di colate detritiche”Prof.Vincenzo D’Agostino)
文摘Studies on susceptibility to debris flows at regional scale （ioo-looo km2） are important for the protection and management of mountain areas. To reach this objective, routing models, mainly based on land topography, can be used to predict susceptible areas rapidly while necessitating few input data. In this research, Flow-R model is implemented to create the susceptibility map for the debris flow of the Vizze Valley （BZ, North-Eastern Italy; 134 km^2）. The analysis considers the model application at local scale for three sub-catchments and then it explores the model upsealing at the regional scale by verifying two methods to generate the source areas of debris-flow initiation. Using data of an extreme event occurred in the Vizze Valley （4 August 2012） and historical information, the modeling verification highlights that the propagation parameters are relatively simple to set in order to obtain correct runout distances. A double DTM filtering - using a threshold for the upslope contributing area （0.1 km^2） and a threshold for the terrain-slope angle （15°） provides a satisfactory prediction of source areas and susceptibility map within the geological conditions of the Vizze Valley.
基金supported by the foundation of the Research Fund for Commonweal Trades (Meteorology) (No. GYHY201006039)
文摘Debris flow forecast is an important means of disaster mitigation. However, the accuracy of the statistics-based debris flow forecast is unsatisfied while the mechanism-based forecast is unavailable at the watershed scale because most of existing researches on the initiation mechanism of debris flow took a single slope as the main object. In order to solve this problem, this paper developed a model of debris flow forecast based on the water-soil coupling mechanism at the watershed scale. In this model, the runoff and the instable soil caused by the rainfall in a watershed is estimated by the distrib- uted hydrological model （GBHM） and an instable identification model of the unsaturated soil. Because the debris flow is a special fluid composed of soil and water and has a bigger density, the density esti- mated by the runoff and instable soil mass in a watershed under the action of a rainfall is employed as a key factor to identify the formation probability of debris flow in the forecast model. The Jiangjia Gulley, a typical debris flow valley with a several debris flow events each year, is selected as a case study watershed to test this forecast model of debris flow. According the observation data of Dongchuan Debris Flow Observation and Research Station, CAS located in Jiangjia Gulley, there were 4 debris flow events in 2006. The test results show that the accuracy of the model is satisfied.
