Impacts of Future Changes in Heavy Precipitation and Extreme Drought on the Economy over South China and Indochina

Heavy precipitation and extreme drought have caused severe economic losses over South China and Indochina(INCSC)in recent decades.Given the areas with large gross domestic product(GDP)in the INCSC region are distributed along the coastline and greatly affected by global warming,understanding the possible economic impacts induced by future changes in the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation(RX5day)and the maximum consecutive dry days(CDD)is critical for adaptation planning in this region.Based on the latest data released by phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),future projections of precipitation extremes with bias correction and their impacts on GDP over the INCSC region under the fossil-fueled development Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP5-8.5)are investigated.Results indicate that RX5day will intensify robustly throughout the INCSC region,while CDD will lengthen in most regions under global warming.The changes in climate consistently dominate the effect on GDP over the INCSC region,rather than the change of GDP.If only considering the effect of climate change on GDP,the changes in precipitation extremes bring a larger impact on the economy in the future to the provinces of Hunan,Jiangxi,Fujian,Guangdong,and Hainan in South China,as well as the Malay Peninsula and southern Cambodia in Indochina.Thus,timely regional adaptation strategies are urgent for these regions.Moreover,from the sub-regional average viewpoint,over two thirds of CMIP6 models agree that maintaining a lower global warming level will reduce the economic impacts from heavy precipitation over the INCSC region.

Impacts of Extreme Droughts on Ecosystem Water Use Efficiency Diverge between Forest and Grassland

Ecosystem-scale water use efficiency (WUE),as a quantification of the coupling between carbon and water cycle,determines whether vegetation could survive under severe drought stress.Nevertheless,how extreme droughts affect ecosystem-scale WUE and its difference among regions and biomes are still poorly understood.In this study,using data-oriented gridded products of gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET),we assessed the ecosystem WUE change during extreme drought years over China,and further compared drought impacts on WUE between forest and grassland ecosystems.We found a spatial heterogeneity of WUE change in response to extreme droughts across regions.Particularly,grassland WUE was substantially reduced concurrent with suppressed photosynthesis,while most of forest exhibited slightly decreased or even increased WUE under extreme droughts.In addition,we demonstrated that drought characteristics and environmental conditions modulated drought impacts on WUE.Temperature anomalies during droughts and leaf area were found to be the predominant factors driving WUE change for both forest and grassland.With increasing occurrence of compound dry and hot extremes,our results,therefore,would be an insightful supplement to the current understanding of the influence of extreme events on terrestrial ecosystems.

The Record-Breaking Extreme Drought in Yunnan Province, Southwest China during Spring-Early Summer of 2019 and Possible Causes

In spring and early summer of 2019, Yunnan Province experienced the most severe seasonal drought on record,with days of extreme drought area exceeding 10^5 km^2 far more than normal. Consistently, the precipitation in each month from February to June is over 30% less than normal, and about 50% less in the most severe drought period(April–June). The rainy season in Southwest China(SWC) started on the third pentad in June 2019, which is the second latest in history. The rainy season in Yunnan started on 24 June, which is the latest(29 days later than normal). On the contrary, the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) is abnormally early. The lag time between the start of the rainy season in SWC and the onset of the SCSSM in 2019 is 7 pentads, which is the largest since 1961, much longer than the climate mean(less than 1 pentad). The present study analyzes the possible reasons why the rainy season came extremely late and the drought disaster persisted and intensified after a much early SCSSM, at both seasonal and subseasonal timescales. The abnormally late onset of the rainy season and the second greatest potential evapotranspiration(PET) since 1981 are the direct reasons for the persistent drought. Statistical results show that the water vapor from southwest of Yunnan in April–June contributes more than that from the east at the seasonal scale. In April–June 2019, however, the southern branch trough(SBT) was abnormally weak, the large and strong anticyclonic wind anomaly prevailed over the Bay of the Bengal(BOB), and the meridional water vapor transport to Yunnan was weak. At the subseasonal scale, the weaker SBT lasted the longest, and the strong convection over the BOB came up late despite of an early onset of the SCSSM, which resulted in reduced low-level moisture convergence in Yunnan and development of drought prior to the SCSSM onset. From the onset of SCSSM to the start of rainy season in SWC, the SBT and meridional water vapor transport from the BOB were still weak, and the water vapor was mainly transported into the coastal area of South and Southeast China rather than Yunnan. After the start of the rainy season in SWC, the SBT was still weak. This led to less moisture transport in the westerlies to the west of Yunnan and the persistent extreme drought. Both the statistical results and case analysis indicate that the stronger Australian high in spring and early summer of 2019 was associated with the abnormally strong anticyclone over the BOB and the always weak SBT. In sum, the anomalous weakness of SBT played a critical role in the extreme drought occurrence and persistence in Yunnan of Southwest China in 2019.

Differences and similarities in radial growth of Betula species to climate change

Betula platyphylla and Betula costata are important species in mixed broadleaved-Korean pine(Pinus koraiensis)forests.However,the specific ways in which their growth is affected by warm temperatures and drought remain unclear.To address this issue,60 and 62 tree-ring cores of B.platyphylla and B.costata were collected in Yichun,China.Using dendrochronological methods,the response and adaptation of these species to climate change were examined.A“hysteresis effect”was found in the rings of both species,linked to May–September moisture conditions of the previous year.Radial growth of B.costata was positively correlated with the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index(SPEI),the precipitation from September to October of the previous year,and the relative humidity in October of the previous year.Growth of B.costata is primarily restricted by moisture conditions from September to October.In contrast,B.platyphylla growth is mainly limited by minimum temperatures in May–June of both the previous and current years.After droughts,B.platyphylla had a faster recovery rate compared to B.costata.In the context of rising temperatures since 1980,the correlation between B.platyphylla growth and monthly SPEI became positive and strengthened over time,while the growth of B.costata showed no conspicuous change.Our findings suggest that the growth of B.platyphylla is already affected by warming temperatures,whereas B.costata may become limited if warming continues or intensifies.Climate change could disrupt the succession of these species,possibly accelerating the succession of pioneer species.The results of this research are of great significance for understanding how the growth changes of birch species under warming and drying conditions,and contribute to understanding the structural adaptation of mixed broadleaved-Korean pine(Pinus koraiensis)forests under climate change.

Baseflow Separation and Its Response to Meteorological Drought in a Temperate Water-limited Basin,North China

Baseflow,a component of the total streamflow,plays a key role in maintaining aquatic habitats,particularly during extreme drought events.This study investigated baseflow response to a prolonged and extreme meteorological drought event in the Baiyangdian Basin(BYD basin),a temperate water-limited basin in North China.Applying a precipitation series,piecewise regression was used to determine this extreme meteorological drought event,while the Automatic Baseflow Identification Technique(ABIT)was used to estimate a recession parameter(α),which was used to isolate baseflow from total streamflow.Results showed that:1)annual precipitation exhibited significant decreasing trends(P<0.05)with an average change of–1.81 mm/yr^(2).The precipitation deficit revealed that the start and end date of the extreme meteorological drought event was from August 1996 to May 2011,respectively,persisting for a total of 178 months(roughly 15 yr);2)hydrological drought(including streamflow and baseflow)lagged behind meteorological drought while predictably persisting longer than extreme meteorological drought(i.e.,precipitation);and 3)baseflow decreased dramatically under meteorological drought at both seasonal and annual scales,resulting in significantly decreasing trends during drought periods.Findings from this study confirmed that hydrological events caused by extreme meteorological drought can alter the magnitude and duration of baseflow and total streamflow,which will have an inevitable influence on aquatic ecosystems.

Causes and Predictability of the 2021 Spring Southwestern China Severe Drought

In the spring of 2021,southwestern China(SWC)experienced extreme drought,accompanied by the highest seasonal-mean temperature record since 1961.This drought event occurred in the decaying phase of a La Niña event with negative geopotential height anomalies over the Philippine Sea,which is distinct from the historical perspective.Historically,spring drought over SWC is often linked to El Niño and strong western North Pacific subtropical high.Here,we show that the extreme drought in the spring of 2021 may be mainly driven by the atmospheric internal variability and amplified by the warming trend.Specifically,the evaporation increase due to the high temperature accounts for about 30%of drought severity,with the contributions of its linear trend portion being nearly 20%and the interannual variability portion being about 10%.Since the sea surface temperature forcing from the tropical central and eastern Pacific played a minor role in the occurrence of drought,it is a challenge for a climate model to capture the 2021 SWC drought beyond one-month lead times.

Extreme characteristics and causes of the drought event in the whole Yangtze River Basin in the midsummer of 2022

Due to their huge socio-economic impacts and complex formation causes,extreme and continuous drought events have become the focus and nodus of research in recent years.In the midsummer(July-August)of 2022,a severe drought event occurred in the whole Yangtze River Basin(YRB),China.During that period,the precipitation in the upper,middle and lower reaches of the YRB dropped over 40%less than the 1961-2021 climatic mean,which had never happened previously.Furthermore,the temperature was the highest during 1961-2022.The record-breaking magnitude of less rainfall and high temperature directly led to the continuous development of this extreme drought event.An atmospheric moisture budget analysis revealed that the YRB midsummer rainfall anomaly was dominated by the anomalous powerful vertical moisture advection,which was derived from the strongest descending motion over the whole YRB in the 2022 midsummer during 1981-2022.The western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)during the midsummer remained stronger,more westward and lasted longer than the climatic mean.As a result,the whole YRB was controlled by a positive geopotential height centre.Further evidence revealed that the anomalous subtropical zonal flow played a crucial role in inducing the extreme descent over the YRB.Moreover,the anomalous upper-tropospheric easterly flow over the YRB in 2022 is the strongest during 1981-2022,modulating the generation of the unprecedented descent anomaly over the YRB.The likelihood that an integrated connection of severe drought in East Asia and flood in West Asia and northwestern South Asia would increase when the extremely strong easterly anomalies in the upper troposphere emerged and induced descending adiabatic flow on the eastern sides of the Tibetan Plateau.The results of this study can provide scientific insights into the predictability of extreme drought events and provide ways to improve predictions.