Crop Diversification in Coping with Extreme Weather Events in China

Apart from the long-term effects of climate change, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events have been increasing. Given the risks posed by climate change, particularly the changes in extreme weather events, the question of how to adapt to these changes and mitigate their negative impacts has received great attention from policy makers. The overall goals of this study are to examine whether farmers adapt to extreme weather events through crop diversification and which factors influence farmers＇ decisions on crop diversification against extreme weather events in China. To limit the scope of this study, we focus on drought and flood events only. Based on a unique large-scale household survey in nine provinces, this study finds that farmers respond to extreme weather events by increasing crop diversification. Their decision to diversify crops is significantly influenced by their experiences of extreme weather events in the previous year. Such results are understandable because farmers＇ behaviors are normally based on their expectations. Moreover, household characteristics also affect farmers＇ decisions on crop diversification strategy, and their effects differ by farmers＇ age and gender. This paper concludes with several policy implications.

Influence of the Arctic on the Predictability of Eurasian Winter Extreme Weather Events

The linkage between the Arctic and midlatitudes has received much attention recently due to the rapidly changing climate.Many investigations have been conducted to reveal the relationship between the Arctic and Eurasian extreme events from the perspective of climatological statistics.As a prediction source for extreme events in Eurasia,Arctic conditions are crucial for extreme event predictions.Therefore,it is urgent to explore the Arctic influence on the predictability of Eurasian extreme events due to the large uncertainties in Arctic conditions.Considering the sensitivity and nonlinearity of the atmospheric circulations in midlatitude to Arctic conditions,it is necessary to investigate the Arctic influences on Eurasian extreme weather events in case studies at weather time scales.Previous studies indicate that only perturbations in specific patterns have fast growth.Thus,the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach is recommended for exploring the uncertainties in Arctic initial and boundary conditions and their synergistic effect on Eurasian extreme events.Moreover,the mechanism for extreme event formation may differ in different cases.Therefore,more extreme cases should be investigated to reach robust conclusions.

What determines irrigation efficiency when farmers face extreme weather events? A field survey of the major wheat producing regions in China

Water availability is a major constraint on grain production in China, therefore, improving irrigation efficiency is particularly important when agriculture faces extreme weather events. This paper first calculates irrigation efficiency with a translog stochastic frontier production function and then investigates what happens when extreme weather events occur via a Tobit model. The estimated results reveal several important features of irrigation practices: i) irrigation efficiency is lower when extreme weather events occur; ii) large variations in irrigation efficiency occur across irrigation facilities; iii) the farm plots exhibit an extreme distribution across efficiency levels; and iv) water-saving techniques, technology adoption, and the maintenance of farmers’ economic resilience are major determinants of irrigation efficiency. Based on these results we propose the following recommendations: i) farmers should balance crop yield and water use; undertake relevant training programs and adopt water-saving techniques; ii) local governments and researchers should help farmers to find the optimal level of irrigation water use based on their own circumstances and provide better water-saving techniques and training programs rather than simply encouraging farmers to invest in irrigation facilities in the most extreme weather years; and iii) the income level of farm households should be increased so as to improve their resilience to natural disasters.

Numerical Simulation and Analysis of Storm Surges Under Different Extreme Weather Event and Typhoon Experiments in the South Yellow Sea

In this study,a coupled tide-surge-wave model was developed and applied to the South Yellow Sea.The coupled model simulated the evolution of storm surges and waves caused by extreme weather events,such as tropical cyclones,cold waves,extratropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave,and tropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave.The modeled surge level and significant wave height matched the measured data well.Simulation results of the typhoon with different intensities revealed that the radius to the maximum wind speed of a typhoon with 1.5 times wind speed decreased,and its influence range was farther away from the Jiangsu coastal region;moreover,the impact on surge levels was weakened.Thereafter,eight hypothetical typhoons based on Typhoon Chan-hom were designed to investigate the effects of varying typhoon tracks on the extreme value and spatial distribution of storm surges in the offshore area of Jiangsu Province.The typhoon along path 2 mainly affected the Rudong coast,and the topography of the Rudong coast was conducive to the increase in surge level.Therefore,the typhoon along path 2 induced the largest surge level,which reached up to 2.91 m in the radial sand ridge area.The maximum surge levels in the Haizhou Bay area and the middle straight coastline area reached up to 2.37 and 2.08 m,respectively.In terms of typhoons active in offshore areas,the radial sand ridge area was most likely to be threatened by typhoon-induced storm surges.

Coordinating Preventive Strategies and Restoration under Extreme Weather Conditions

It has been well identified that the extreme events significantly impact the system operation. In this work, a comprehensive operating strategy, which coordinates the preventive strategies and system restoration, was proposed. A re-dispatch model that limits the potential loss under extreme events, as well as provides adequate resources for system restoration after the extreme events, was proposed. An optimal power flow based method was established to solve the proposed model. The availabilities of components and the remaining system due to the extreme events were restored by extending the EPRI’s System Restoration Navigator (SRN) with a little modification. Case studies demonstrate the proposed model and methods.

Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Their Impacts on Island Countries in the Western Pacific: Cyclones, Floods and Droughts

Increases in the frequency of extreme weather and climate events and the severity of their impacts on the natural environment and society have been observed across the globe in recent decades. In addition to natural climate variability and greenhouse-induced climate change, extreme weather and climate events produce the most pronounced impacts. In this paper, the climate of three island countries in the Western Pacific: Fiji, Samoa and Tuvalu, has been analysed. Warming trends in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures since the 1950s have been identified, in line with the global warming trend. We present recent examples of extreme weather and climate events and their impacts on the island countries in the Western Pacific: the 2011 drought in Tuvalu, the 2012 floods in Fiji and a tropical cyclone, Evan, which devastated Samoa and Fiji in December 2012. We also relate occurrences of the extreme weather and climate events to phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The impacts of such natural disasters on the countries are severe and the costs of damage are astronomical. In some cases, climate extremes affect countries to such an extent that governments declare a national state of emergency, as occurred in Tuvalu in 2011 due to the severe drought’s impact on water resources. The projected increase in the frequency of weather and climate extremes is one of the expected consequences of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration and will likely have even stronger negative impacts on the natural environment and society in the future. This should be taken into consideration by authorities of Pacific Island Countries and aid donors when developing strategies to adapt to the increasing risk of climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that the modern science of seasonal climate prediction is well developed, with current dynamical climate models being able to provide skilful predictions of regional rainfall two-three months in advance. The dynamic climate model-based forecast products are now disseminated to the National Meteorological Services of 15 island countries in the Western Pacific through a range of web-based information tools. We conclude with confidence that seasonal climate prediction is an effective solution at the regional level to provide governments and local communities of island nations in the Western Pacific with valuable assistance for informed decision making for adaptation to climate variability and change.

Extreme Cold Events from East Asia to North America in Winter 2020/21:Comparisons,Causes,and Future Implications

Three striking and impactful extreme cold weather events successively occurred across East Asia and North America during the mid-winter of 2020/21.These events open a new window to detect possible underlying physical processes.The analysis here indicates that the occurrences of the three events resulted from integrated effects of a concurrence of anomalous thermal conditions in three oceans and interactive Arctic-lower latitude atmospheric circulation processes,which were linked and influenced by one major sudden stratospheric warming(SSW).The North Atlantic warm blob initiated an increased poleward transient eddy heat flux,reducing the Barents-Kara seas sea ice over a warmed ocean and disrupting the stratospheric polar vortex(SPV)to induce the major SSW.The Rossby wave trains excited by the North Atlantic warm blob and the tropical Pacific La Nina interacted with the Arctic tropospheric circulation anomalies or the tropospheric polar vortex to provide dynamic settings,steering cold polar air outbreaks.The long memory of the retreated sea ice with the underlying warm ocean and the amplified tropospheric blocking highs from the midlatitudes to the Arctic intermittently fueled the increased transient eddy heat flux to sustain the SSW over a long time period.The displaced or split SPV centers associated with the SSW played crucial roles in substantially intensifying the tropospheric circulation anomalies and moving the jet stream to the far south to cause cold air outbreaks to a rarely observed extreme state.The results have significant implications for increasing prediction skill and improving policy decision making to enhance resilience in“One Health,One Future”.

Increases in Anthropogenic Heat Release from Energy Consumption Lead to More Frequent Extreme Heat Events in Urban Cities

With economic development and rapid urbanization,increases in Gross Domestic Product and population in fastgrowing cities since the turn of the 21st Century have led to increases in energy consumption.Anthropogenic heat flux released to the near-surface atmosphere has led to changes in urban thermal environments and severe extreme temperature events.To investigate the effects of energy consumption on urban extreme temperature events,including extreme heat and cold events,a dynamic representation scheme of anthropogenic heat release(AHR)was implemented in the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model,and AHR data were developed based on energy consumption and population density in a case study of Beijing,China.Two simulations during 1999−2017 were then conducted using the developed WRF model with 3-km resolution with and without the AHR scheme.It was shown that the mean temperature increased with the increase in AHR,and more frequent extreme heat events were produced,with an annual increase of 0.02−0.19 days,as well as less frequent extreme cold events,with an annual decrease of 0.26−0.56 days,based on seven extreme temperature indices in the city center.AHR increased the sensible heat flux and led to surface energy budget changes,strengthening the dynamic processes in the atmospheric boundary layer that reduce AHR heating efficiency more in summer than in winter.In addition,it was concluded that suitable energy management might help to mitigate the impact of extreme temperature events in different seasons.

A research progress review on regional extreme events

An extreme （weather and climate） event does not only mean that an extreme occurs at a location, but more generally it can impact a certainarea and last a certain period of time, which is defined as a regional extreme event （REE） with a certain impacted area and duration. The conceptof REE has been defined to allow mainly objective assessment of the events without a pre-determined boundary and duration. This paper reviewsthe studies on REEs published during the past 20 years, especially recent years. Mainly in view of methodology, these studies can be divided intothree types studies focusing on spatial simultaneity, studies focusing on temporal persistence, and studies identifying REEs. The methodsidentifying REEs include two kinds, e.g., type-I methods stressing REE＇s temporal persistence within a relatively certain area and type-IImethods focusing on catching a complete REE. Identification methods proposed in this paper could provide valuable information for variouspurposes, such as real-time monitoring, estimating long-term changes, mechanism diagnosis, forecasting study and even attribution analysis.Research on REEs is important for objectively defining extreme weather and climate events, which depends on the spatial and temporal scales ofinterest. Such an objective definition will support ongoing climate monitoring and improve the assessment of how regional extreme events havechanged over time.

Comparative Analysis of Extreme High Temperature Weather in the Summers of 2013 and 2003

The characteristics of regional high temperature(HT) weather in 2013 and 2003 and their causes were studied using daily maximum temperature data, National Center for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) reanalysis data, and outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) data. For these two years of HT weather, there were many similar characteristics, such as their long duration, wide range, high intensity, and severe influence. However, there were also three obvious differences: firstly, in 2013, the major area where HT weather occurred was farther north than in 2003; secondly, the HT weather in South China and the southeast area of Jiangnan in 2013 lasted fewer days than in 2003, but in other areas it lasted for more days than in 2003; thirdly, the intensity of the HT weather in 2013 was also stronger in the north and weaker in the south, similar to that of the duration. A strong and stable western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH), a continental warm high, and the distribution of the warm center in the lower troposphere played important roles in the HT weather formation. Several probable causes for the differences are that the cold air was weaker, the WPSH was farther north, and the tropical convective systems were stronger in 2013 than in 2003. Finally, a preliminary cause analysis of the WPSH anomaly was presented.

The 2020 Summer Floods and 2020/21 Winter Extreme Cold Surges in China and the 2020 Typhoon Season in the Western North Pacific

China experienced significant flooding in the summer of 2020 and multiple extreme cold surges during the winter of 2020/21.Additionally,the 2020 typhoon season had below average activity with especially quiet activity during the first half of the season in the western North Pacific(WNP).Sea surface temperature changes in the Pacific,Indian,and Atlantic Oceans all contributed to the heavy rainfall in China,but the Atlantic and Indian Oceans seem to have played dominant roles.Enhancement and movement of the Siberian High caused a wavier pattern in the jet stream that allowed cold polar air to reach southward,inducing cold surges in China.Large vertical wind shear and low humidity in the WNP were responsible for fewer typhoons in the first half of the typhoon season.Although it is known that global warming can increase the frequency of extreme weather and climate events,its influences on individual events still need to be quantified.Additionally,the extreme cold surge during 16–18 February 2021 in the United States shares similar mechanisms with the winter 2020/21 extreme cold surges in China.

Extremes of Severe Storm Environments under a Changing Climate

One of the more critical issues in a changing climate is the behavior of extreme weather events, such as severe tornadic storms as seen recently in Moore and El Reno, Oklahoma. It is generally thought that such events would increase under a changing climate. How to evaluate this extreme behavior is a topic currently under much debate and investigation. One approach is to look at the behavior of large scale indicators of severe weather. The use of the generalized extreme value distribution for annual maxima is explored for a combination product of convective available potential energy and wind shear. Results from this initial study show successful modeling and high quantile prediction using extreme value methods. Predicted large scale values are consistent across different extreme value modeling frameworks, and a general increase over time in predicted values is indicated. A case study utilizing this methodology considers the large scale atmospheric indicators for the region of Moore, Oklahoma for Class EF5 tornadoes on May 3, 1999 and more recently on May 20, 2013, and for the class EF5 storm in El Reno, Oklahoma on May 31, 2013.

Resilience Building and Collaborative Governance for Climate Change Adaptation in Response to a New State of More Frequent and Intense Extreme Weather Events

The weather conditions of the summer of 2022 were very unusual,particularly in Eastern Asia,Europe,and North America.The devasting impact of climate change has come to our attention,with much hotter and drier conditions,and with more frequent and intense flooding events.Some extreme events have reached a dangerous level,increasingly threatening human lives.The interconnected risks caused by these extreme disaster events are triggering a chain effect,forcing us to respond to these crises through changes in our living environment,which affect the atmosphere,the biosphere,the economy including the availability of energy,our cities,and our global society.Moreover,we have to confront the abnormal consequences of untypical,rapid changes of extreme events and fast switches between extreme states,such as from severe drought to devastating flooding.Recognizing this new situation,it is crucial to improve the adaptation capacity of our societies in order to reduce the risks associated with climate change,and to develop smarter strategies for climate governance.High-quality development must be science-based,balanced,safe,sustainable,and climate-resilient,supported by the collaborative governance of climate mitigation and adaptation.This article provides some recommendations and suggestions for resilience building and collaborative governance with respect to climate adaptation in response to a new planetary state that is characterized by more frequent and severe extreme weather events.

Community-Based Coral Reef Rehabilitation in a Changing Climate:Lessons Learned from Hurricanes,Extreme Rainfall,and Changing Land Use Impacts

Coral reefs have largely declined across multiple spatial scales due to a combination of local-scale anthropogenic impacts, and due to regional-global climate change. This has resulted in a significant loss of entire coral functional groups, including western Atlantic Staghorn coral (Acropora cervicornis) biotopes, and in a net decline of coral reef ecosystem resilience, ecological functions, services and benefits. Low-tech coral farming has become one of the most important tools to help restore depleted coral reefs across the Wider Caribbean Region. We tested a community-based, low-tech coral farming approach in Culebra Island, Puerto Rico, aimed at adapting to climate change-related impacts through a two-year project to propagate A. cervicornis under two contrasting fishing management conditions, in coastal areas experimenting significant land use changes. Extreme rainfall events and recurrent tropical storms and hurricanes had major site-and method-specific impacts on project outcome, particularly in areas adjacent to deforested lands and subjected to recurrent impacts from land-based source pollution (LBSP) and runoff. Overall, coral survival rate in “A frame” units improved from 73% during 2011-2012 to 81% during 2012-2013. Coral survival rate improved to 97% in horizontal line nurseries (HLN) incorporated during 2012-2013. Percent tissue cover ranged from 86% to 91% in “A frames”, but reached 98% in HLN. Mean coral skeletal extension was 27 cm/y in “A frames” and 40 cm/y in HLN. These growth rates were up to 545% to 857% faster than previous reports from coral farms from other parts of the Caribbean, and up to 438% faster than wild colonies. Branch production and branchiness index (no. harvestable branches > 6 cm) increased by several orders of magnitude in comparison to the original colonies at the beginning of the project. Coral mortality was associated to hurricane physical impacts and sediment-laden runoff impacts associated to extreme rainfall and deforestation of adjacent lands. This raises a challenging question regarding the impact of chronic high sea surface temperature (SST), in combination with recurrent high nutrient pulses, in fostering increased coral growth at the expense of coral physiological conditions which may compromise corals resistance to disturbance. Achieving successful local management of reefs and adjacent lands is vital to maintain the sustained net production in coral farms and of reef structure, and the provision of the important ecosystem services that they provide. These measures are vital for buying time for reefs while global action on climate change is implemented. Adaptive community-based strategies are critical to strengthen institutional management efforts. But government agencies need to transparently build local trust, empower local stakeholders, and foster co-management to be fully successful. Failing to achieve that could make community-based coral reef rehabilitation more challenging, and could potentially drive rapidly declining, transient coral reefs into the slippery slope to slime.

位涡源汇和位涡环流及其天气气候意义

在扼要回顾地表位涡研究进展的基础上,本文介绍了复杂地形下的位涡及位涡制造的计算及近年来关于位涡源汇和位涡环流(PVC)的研究进展,侧重介绍青藏高原表层位涡的特殊性及其对天气气候的重要影响。阐明对于绝热和无摩擦大气运动,由于位涡本身的结构重组(位涡重构)可以引起垂直涡度的发展,在夏季可以激发高原涡形成,冬季使青藏高原东部成为重要的表面涡源。基于导得的包括非绝热加热作用的、与等熵面的位移相联系的垂直运动(ωID)方程,进一步阐明青藏高原制造的正位涡沿西风气流东传会引起下游地区低空气旋性涡度、偏南风、和上升运动发展,导致位涡平流随高度增加,激发极端天气气候事件发生发展。指出青藏高原地表加热和云底的潜热释放的日变化显著地影响着地表层位涡的日变化,导致青藏高原的低涡降水系统多在午后至夜间发生发展。证明与传统的青藏高原感热加热指数相比,青藏高原地表层位涡指数能够更好地刻画关于降水的季节变化,与亚洲夏季风降水相关更密切。本文还简单介绍了PVC的概念。指出由于区域边界面的PVC的辐散辐合的变化直接与区域位涡的变化相关联,为保持北半球位涡总量的相对稳定,跨赤道面上的PVC变化与地表PVC的变化必须相互补充,因此跨赤道面上的位涡环流的变化可以成为监测近地表气候变化的窗口。近赤道的海气相互作用能够直接造成沿赤道垂直面上的纬向风垂直切变的变化,激发跨赤道位涡环流异常,从而通过大气内部PVC的变化和青藏高原的调控影响北半球近地表的气候变化。结果表明位涡环流分析为建立热带和热带外大气环流变化的联系开辟了新的蹊径,有着广阔的应用前景。

2023年中国气候异常特征及主要天气气候事件

2023年,我国气候主要表现为暖干的特征,全国平均气温10.71℃,较1991—2020年气候平均偏高0.82℃,为1951年以来最暖;全国平均降水量615.0 mm,较常年偏少3.9%,为2012年以来第二少。四季气温均较常年同期偏高,其中夏、秋季分别为历史同期次高和最高;除秋季降水偏多外,其余三季降水均偏少。汛期(5—9月),全国平均降水量较常年同期偏少4.3%,为2012年以来第二少,我国中东部降水总体呈“中间多南北少”的分布。2023年,我国区域性气象干旱多发,西南地区遭遇冬春连旱;春季北方沙尘天气过程偏多;夏季前期,华北和黄淮遭受1961年以来最强高温过程;7月底至8月初,受台风杜苏芮影响,京津冀地区发生历史罕见极端强降水过程,华北地区出现“旱涝急转”;华西秋雨开始早、结束晚、雨量多;1月中旬发生年内最强寒潮过程;秋末冬初冷空气频繁入侵,12月华北和黄淮等地降雪日数偏多、积雪偏深。

中国极端天气气候研究——“地球系统与全球变化”重点专项项目简介及最新进展

全球变暖背景下,极端天气气候事件频发,并表现出群发性、持续性、复合性等特点,不可预测性增加;持续性强降水、极端低温、复合型极端高温干旱、群发性热浪和台风等极端天气气候事件对我国经济社会和可持续发展影响巨大。然而,上述极端天气气候事件的新特征、关键过程和机理尚不完全清楚,重大极端事件的预报预测水平亟待提升。文章首先简要介绍“地球系统与全球变化”重点专项项目“中国极端天气气候事件的形成机理及其预测和归因”的基本情况。项目拟在分析全球变化背景下对我国造成重大影响的极端天气气候事件新特征的基础上,深入研究多尺度海-陆-气耦合过程影响极端天气气候事件的机理,挖掘极端天气气候事件次季节-季节预测的前兆信号;发展动力与物理统计相结合的极端事件预测新方法,研制针对中国极端事件的新一代高分辨率数值预报与检测归因系统。文章重点总结了自2022年12月项目立项至今取得的最新研究成果和进展。

1986-2015年极端降水指标变化及其对中国草地植被物候的影响

研究我国草地植被生长季始期及末期对极端降水事件变化的响应是理解区域陆地生态系统生产力历史和未来变化机制的关键。本文利用草地、物候和极端降水数据,辅以Sen趋势分析和Pearson相关分析法研究了1986-2015年我国不同极端降水指标变化趋势及其对草地物候影响。结果表明,(1)我国极端降水事件的水量和强度都有显著增加的趋势,从空间分布来看,西部特别是西北地区有较明显增长。(2)草地植被生长季始期与长时序低温事件、持续干旱事件和极端强降水事件之间有显著相关性。(3)草地植被生长季末期与极端强降水,长时序极端干旱、湿润之间具有显著相关性。此研究对科学分析极端降水变化及其对植被物候的影响,促进植被生态恢复,制定行之有效的防灾减灾措施、构建稳定的生态屏障具有指导意义。

西北干旱区荒漠戈壁两次极端沙尘事件的对比研究

为深入理解极端沙尘暴事件的演变过程和驱动因子,结合多源卫星遥感及再分析数据,挑选2007年3月31日(“3·31”事件)和2021年3月14日(“3·14”事件)爆发于西北干旱区荒漠戈壁的两次沙尘暴事件,对比分析了其时空演变、高低空环流配置、近地面气象要素的变化。结果表明:(1)两次极端事件分别爆发于塔克拉玛干沙漠及戈壁荒漠,均受高低层天气系统影响。其中,“3·31”事件受地面冷锋和高空脊控制,脊前西北冷空气与地面冷锋引起的垂直运动配合,将沙尘往下游输送;而“3·14”事件则受蒙古气旋和高空槽影响,气旋后的偏北风和气旋引发的垂直运动将沙尘卷起至高层大气,并通过槽后西北风将其往下游输送;(2)两次极端沙尘事件均有持续时间长的特点,区别在于“3·31”事件主要受高压脊、均压场和周边地形影响,大气层结稳定,沙尘不易沉降和输送,而“3·14”事件则因中国北部持续性高压导致的偏南风和偏东风阻止了沙尘向下游扩散;(3)两次极端沙尘事件爆发前,塔克拉玛干和戈壁荒漠均出现了高温、降水减少及土壤水分枯竭现象,即强风和干燥土壤。为极端沙尘事件的爆发创造了有利的动力条件和物质基础。

北极—中纬度联系与北极海冰变化的关系研究新进展

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