Sensitivities of Numerical Model Forecasts of Extreme Cyclone Events

A global forecast model is used to examine various sensitivities of numerical predictions of three extreme winter storms that occurred near the eastern continental margin of North America: the Ohio Valley blizzard of January 1978, the New England blizzard of February 1978, and the Mid-Atlantic cyclone of February 1979. While medium-resolution simulations capture much of the intensification, the forecasts of the precise timing and intensity levels suffer from various degrees of error. The coastal cyclones show a 5-10 hPa dependence on the western North Atlantic sea surface temperature, which is varied within a range (± 2.5℃) compatible with interannual fluctuations. The associated vertical velocities and precipitation rates show proportionately stronger dependences on the ocean temperature perturbations. The Ohio Valley blizzard, which intensified along a track 700-800 km from the coast, shows little sensitivity to ocean temperature. The effect of a shift of - 10?latitude in the position of the snow boundary is negligible in each case. The forecasts depend strongly on the model resolution, and the coarse-resolution forecasts are consistently inferior to the medium-resolution forecasts. Studies of the corresponding sensitivities of extreme cyclonic events over eastern Asia are encouraged in order to identify characteristics that are common to numerical forecasts for the two regions.

An Extreme Value Analysis of Wind Speed over the European and Siberian Parts of Arctic Region

Multiyear observed time series of wind speed for selected points of the Arctic region (data of station network from the Kola Peninsula to the Chukotka Peninsula) are used to highlight the important peculiarities of wind speed extreme statistics. How largest extremes could be simulated by climate model (the INM-CM4 model data from the Historical experiment of the CMIP5) is also discussed. Extreme value analysis yielded that a volume of observed samples of wind speeds are strictly divided into two sets of variables. Statistical properties of one population are sharply different from another. Because the common statistical conditions are the sign of identity of extreme events we therefore hypothesize that two groups of extreme wind events adhere to different circulation processes. A very important message is that the procedure of selection can be realized easily based on analysis of the cumulative distribution function. The authors estimate the properties of the modelled extremes and conclude that they consist of only the samples, adhering to one group. This evidence provides a clue that atmospheric model with a coarse spatial resolution does not simulate special mechanism responsible for appearance of largest wind speed extremes. Therefore, the tasks where extreme wind is needed cannot be explicitly solved using the output of climate model. The finding that global models are unable to capture the wind extremes is already well known, but information that they are members of group with the specific statistical conditions provides new knowledge. Generally, the implemented analytical approach allows us to detect that the extreme wind speed events adhere to different statistical models. Events located above the threshold value are much more pronounced than representatives of another group (located below the threshold value) predicted by the extrapolation of law distributions in their tail. The same situation is found in different areas of science where the data referring to the same nomenclature are adhering to different statistical models. This result motivates our interest on our ability to detect, analyze, and understand such different extremes.

Sensitivity of Statistical Models for Extremes Rainfall Adjustment Regarding Data Size: Case of Ivory Coast

The objective of this study is to analyze the sensitivity of the statistical models regarding the size of samples. The study carried out in Ivory Coast is based on annual maximum daily rainfall data collected from 26 stations. The methodological approach is based on the statistical modeling of maximum daily rainfall. Adjustments were made on several sample sizes and several return periods (2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years). The main results have shown that the 30 years series (1931-1960;1961-1990;1991-2020) are better adjusted by the Gumbel (26.92% - 53.85%) and Inverse Gamma (26.92% - 46.15%). Concerning the 60-years series (1931-1990;1961-2020), they are better adjusted by the Inverse Gamma (30.77%), Gamma (15.38% - 46.15%) and Gumbel (15.38% - 42.31%). The full chronicle 1931-2020 (90 years) presents a notable supremacy of 50% of Gumbel model over the Gamma (34.62%) and Gamma Inverse (15.38%) model. It is noted that the Gumbel is the most dominant model overall and more particularly in wet periods. The data for periods with normal and dry trends were better fitted by Gamma and Inverse Gamma.

Scientific Research Complex ＂BeOn-1＂ Performance Indicator of the Operators in Extreme Conditions

Complexity of the systems in everyday life of modern man continuously increases, as the monitoring and the management are concentrated on and depended on the reactions of one operator or a group of operators. Sometimes because of human errors in extreme situations, it increases the potential risk for life of large groups of people and of the operators. This requires continuous improvement of the systems for psycho-physiological assessment by developing the new efficient methods involving known and new indicators of psycho-physiological state of the individual. The complex BeOn-1 is a new computer-based experimental and applied system for examination of situational vigilance and behavior of aviation specialists-pilots, navigators, operators of unmanned aerial vehicles in a complex operating environment with extreme impact factors. In the up-to-date systems for evaluating the operators, the test results are compared and analyzed together with a number of physiological parameters that are used as indicators of psycho-physiological status of the investigated subjects. In the ＂BeOn-1＂ they are indicators about the efficiency of individual stress coping strategy. BeOn-I allows us to study the individual skills of perception and the ability to act under extreme conditions of the operational environment and is a comfortable working methodology for daily needs in the selection, periodic monitoring of the operational staff and support to flight safety.

Seed Selection for Data Offloading Based on Social and Interest Graphs

The explosive growth of mobile data demand is becoming an increasing burden on current cellular network.To address this issue,we propose a solution of opportunistic data offloading for alleviating overloaded cellular traffic.The principle behind it is to select a few important users as seeds for data sharing.The three critical steps are detailed as follows.We first explore individual interests of users by the construction of user profiles,on which an interest graph is built by Gaussian graphical modeling.We then apply the extreme value theory to threshold the encounter duration of user pairs.So,a contact graph is generated to indicate the social relationships of users.Moreover,a contact-interest graph is developed on the basis of the social ties and individual interests of users.Corresponding on different graphs,three strategies are finally proposed for seed selection in an aim to maximize overloaded cellular data.We evaluate the performance of our algorithms by the trace data of real-word mobility.It demonstrates the effectiveness of the strategy of taking social relationships and individual interests into account.

Study on evaluation standard of uncertainty of design wave height calculation model

The accurate calculation of marine environmental design parameters depends on the probability distribution model,and the calculation results of different distribution models are often different.It is very important to determine which distribution model is more stable and reasonable when extrapolating the recurrence level of the studied sea area.In this paper,we constructed an evaluation method of the overall uncertainty of the calculation results and a measurement of the uncertainty of the design parameters derivation model,by incorporating the influence of sample information on the model information entropy,such as sample size,degree of dispersion,and sampling error.Results show that the sample data size and the degree of dispersion are directly proportional to the information entropy.Within the same group of data,the maximum entropy distribution model has the lowest overall uncertainty,while the Gumbel distribution model has the largest overall uncertainty.In other words,the maximum entropy distribution model has good applicability in the accurate calculation of marine environmental design parameters.

Analysis of risk factors and the establishment of a risk model for peripherally inserted central catheter thrombosis

Objective： To investigate the main risk factors of peripherally inserted central catheter （PICC） related upper extremity deep venous thrombosis and establish the risk predictive model of PICC-related upper extremity deep venous thrombosis. Methods： Patients with PICC who were hospitalized between January 2014 and July 2015 were studied retrospectively; they were divided into a thrombosis group （n = 52）, with patients who had a venous thrombosis complication after PICC, and a no-thrombosis group （n = 144）, with patients without venous thrombosis. To compare between the two groups, significantly different variables were selected to perform multivariate logistic regression to establish the risk-predictive model. Results： The PICC catheter history, catheter tip position, and diameter of blood vessel were the key factors for thrombosis. The logistic regression predictive model was as follows： Y - 3.338 ＋ 2.040 x PICC catheter history ~1.964~ catheter tip position -1.572~ diameter of vessel. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model was 0.872, 95~CI （0.817-0.927）. The cut-off point was 0.801, the sensitivity of the model was 0.832, and the specificity was 0.745. Conclusions： The PICC catheterization history, catheter tip position, the diameter of blood vessel were the key factors for thrombosis. The logistic regression risk model based on these factors is reliable for predicting PlCC-related upper extremity deep venous thrombosis.

Modelling the dead fuel moisture content in a grassland of Ergun City,China

The dead fuel moisture content(DFMC)is the key driver leading to fire occurrence.Accurately estimating the DFMC could help identify locations facing fire risks,prioritise areas for fire monitoring,and facilitate timely deployment of fire-suppression resources.In this study,the DFMC and environmental variables,including air temperature,relative humidity,wind speed,solar radiation,rainfall,atmospheric pressure,soil temperature,and soil humidity,were simultaneously measured in a grassland of Ergun City,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region of China in 2021.We chose three regression models,i.e.,random forest(RF)model,extreme gradient boosting(XGB)model,and boosted regression tree(BRT)model,to model the seasonal DFMC according to the data collected.To ensure accuracy,we added time-lag variables of 3 d to the models.The results showed that the RF model had the best fitting effect with an R2value of 0.847 and a prediction accuracy with a mean absolute error score of 4.764%among the three models.The accuracies of the models in spring and autumn were higher than those in the other two seasons.In addition,different seasons had different key influencing factors,and the degree of influence of these factors on the DFMC changed with time lags.Moreover,time-lag variables within 44 h clearly improved the fitting effect and prediction accuracy,indicating that environmental conditions within approximately 48 h greatly influence the DFMC.This study highlights the importance of considering 48 h time-lagged variables when predicting the DFMC of grassland fuels and mapping grassland fire risks based on the DFMC to help locate high-priority areas for grassland fire monitoring and prevention.

Prediction of the future flood severity in plain river network region based on numerical model: A case study

Suzhou is one of China＇s most developed regions, located in the eastern part of the Yangtze Delta. Due to its location and river features, it may at a high risk of flood under the climate change background in the future. In order to investigate the flood response to the extreme scenario in this region, 1-D hydrodynamic model with real-time operations of sluices and pumps is established. The rain-runoff processes of the urban and rural areas are simulated by two lumped hydrologic models, respectively. Indicators for a quantitative assessment of the flood severity in this region are proposed. The results indicate that the existing flood control system could prevent the Suzhou Downtown from inundation in the future. The difficulty of draining the Taihu Lake floods should be given attention to avoid the flood hazard. The modelling approach based on the in-bank model and the evaluation parameters could be effective for the flood severity estimation in the plain river network catchment. The insights from this study of the possible future extreme flood events may assist the policy making and the flood control planning.