The effects of mean sea level rise and strengthened winds on extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea

Mean sea level rise and climatological wind speed changes occur as part of the ongoing climate change and future projections of both variables are still highly uncertain. Here the Baltic Sea’s response in extreme sea levels to perturbations in mean sea level and wind speeds is investigated in a series of simulations with a newly developed storm surge model based on the nucleus for European modeling of the ocean(NEMO)-Nordic. A simple linear model with only two tunable parameters is found to capture the changes in the return levels extremely well. The response to mean sea level rise is linear and nearly spatially uniform, meaning that a mean sea level rise of 1 m increases the return levels by a equal amount everywhere. The response to wind speed perturbations is more complicated and return levels are found to increase more where they are already high. This behaviour is alarming as it suggests that already flooding prone regions like the Gulf of Finland will be disproportionally adversely affected in a future windier climate.

Assessment of Storm Surge and Flood Inundation in Chittagong City of Bangladesh Based on ADCIRC and GIS

Coastal flooding caused by tropical cyclones has long been a major threat to life,property,and infrastructure in coastal zones.This study assessed the risk of flooding in Chittagong,southeastern Bangladesh,under extreme sea level scenarios caused by high astronomical tides and storm surges.The Jelesnianski typhoon model and the ADvanced CIRCulation hydrodynamic model were used to simulate 91 typhoons that occurred in the Bay of Bengal between 1981 and 2017,and observational data were used for model validation.The inundation model was based on a digital elevation model and a seed spread algorithm,and a geographical information system was used to visualize the flood risk.Under four scenarios,the changes in flood levels caused by sea level rise had no signifi-cant influence on the extent of flooding in Chittagong.At flood levels of 8.82m(50-year storm surge without sea level rise)and 8.89 m(50-year storm surge with sea level rise),the maximum estimated area of inundation was 11.35 km^(2).The western coastal and southeastern river coastal plain areas of Chittagong have the highest risk of inundation due to their low-lying terrain.At flood levels of 9.83m(100-year storm surge without sea level rise)and 9.97m(100-year storm surge with sea level rise),the maximum simulated flood extent was 36.44km^(2).Simulated floodwaters propagated in a south–north direction,and most of the northern areas of the city are at risk of inundation under these scenarios.

Prediction of the future flood severity in plain river network region based on numerical model: A case study

Suzhou is one of China＇s most developed regions, located in the eastern part of the Yangtze Delta. Due to its location and river features, it may at a high risk of flood under the climate change background in the future. In order to investigate the flood response to the extreme scenario in this region, 1-D hydrodynamic model with real-time operations of sluices and pumps is established. The rain-runoff processes of the urban and rural areas are simulated by two lumped hydrologic models, respectively. Indicators for a quantitative assessment of the flood severity in this region are proposed. The results indicate that the existing flood control system could prevent the Suzhou Downtown from inundation in the future. The difficulty of draining the Taihu Lake floods should be given attention to avoid the flood hazard. The modelling approach based on the in-bank model and the evaluation parameters could be effective for the flood severity estimation in the plain river network catchment. The insights from this study of the possible future extreme flood events may assist the policy making and the flood control planning.