Contribution of Global Warming and Atmospheric Circulation to the Hottest Spring in Eastern China in 2018

The spring of 2018 was the hottest on record since 1951 over eastern China based on station observations,being 2.5°C higher than the 1961−90 mean and with more than 900 stations reaching the record spring mean temperature.This event exerted serious impacts in the region on agriculture,plant phenology,electricity transmission systems,and human health.In this paper,the contributions of human-induced climate change and anomalous anticyclonic circulation to this event are investigated using the newly homogenized observations and updated Met Office Hadley Centre system for attribution of extreme events,as well as CanESM2(Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model)simulations.Results indicate that both anthropogenic influences and anomalous anticyclonic circulation played significant roles in increasing the probability of the 2018 hottest spring.Quantitative estimates of the probability ratio show that anthropogenic forcing may have increased the chance of this event by ten-fold,while the anomalous circulation increased it by approximately two-fold.The persistent anomalous anticyclonic circulation located on the north side of China blocked the air with lower temperature from high latitudes into eastern China.Without anthropogenic forcing or without the anomalous circulation in northern China,the occurrence probability of the extreme warm spring is significantly reduced.

Analysis of climatic features and major meteorological disasters over the Three Gorges Region of the Yangtze River Basin in 2021

Based on daily observation data in the Three Gorges Region(TGR)of the Yangtze River Basin and global reanalysis data,the authors analyzed the climate characteristics and associated temporal variations in the main meteorological factors in 2021,as well as the year’s climatic events and meteorological disasters.The 2021 average temperature was 0.2℃above the 1991-2020 average and the 13 th-warmest year since 1961.Seasonally,winter and autumn were both warmer than usual.The annual mean precipitation was 12.8%above normal,and most regions experienced abundant rainfall throughout the year.The seasonal variation in precipitation was significant and the TGR had a wetter-than-normal spring and summer.The number of rainstorm days was higher than normal;the wind speed was above normal;and the relative humidity was higher than normal.In terms of rain acidity,2021 was tied with 2020 as the lowest since 1999.From mid-September to early October 2021,the TGR experienced exceptional high-temperature weather,which was driven by abnormal activity of mid-and high-latitude atmospheric circulation over the Eurasian continent and the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).In addition,a strong blocking high over the Ural Mountains accompanied by intense mid-latitude westerly winds prevented cyclonic disturbances from extending to the subtropical region.As a result,under the combined effect of the weaker-than-normal cold-air activities and the anomalous WPSH,the TGR experienced extreme high-temperature weather during early autumn 2021.

Impact of Arctic amplification on East Asian winter climate

1.IntroductionThe Arctic region warms about twice as much as the global average,and this so-called Arctic amplification（AA）might increase the moisture flux towards Siberia（Cohen et al.2014）.Furthermore,because of strong radiative cooling over Siberia in winter,AA might enhance the snowfall in that region and reinforce cold spells in East Asia（Wu,Su,and Zhang 2011）.

Responses of Climatic Change on the Lagging Time about Ground Temperature Reaching the Extremum at Shallow Layers Soil in Wuli

The air temperature of Wuli,which is located in seasonal frozen ground zone,is rising by 13 ℃ yearly.This paper discusses the days that each ground layers' temperature lags behind the surface temperature in reaching extremum.The results were shown:The time of each ground layers' lagging days was increasing;the lagging day in warm season was longer than that in cold season;the growth rate of lagging days in warm season was 0.5 d/y,while the growth rate of lagging days in cold season was 0.7 d/y.

Impact of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming on aircraft takeoff performance in China

Associated with global warming, climate extremes such as extreme temperature will significantly increase. Understanding how climate change will impact the airflights is important to the planning of future flight operations. In this study, the impacts of 1.5 and 2 degree's global warming on the aircraft takeoff performance in China are investigated using a unique climate projection data from an international collaboration project named HAPPI. It is found that the mean summer daily maximum temperature, which is a major factor that affects the flight through changing the aircraft's takeoff weight, will increase significantly with magnitude less than 1.5℃ over most parts of China except for the Tibetan Plateau. The half a degree additional global warming will lead to higher extreme temperature in the arid and semi-arid western China, the Tibetan Plateau and the northeastern China, while the change in eastern China is weak. Five airports including Beijing, Shanghai, Kunming, Lasa and Urumqi will see ～1.0°-2.0℃(1.4°-3.0℃) higher daily maximum temperature under 1.5℃(2.0℃) scenario. The half-degree additional warming will lead to a shift toward higher extreme temperature in these five sites. For both1.5° and 2.0℃ scenarios, the number of weight-restriction days will increase significantly at 3 airports including Beijing, Shanghai, and Lasa. Urumqi will witness an increase of weight-restriction days only in 2.0℃ future.

Variations of widespread extreme cold and warm days in winter over China and their possible causes

The two leading modes of winter surface air temperature(SAT) over China during 1961–2017 are a spatially consistent pattern and a north-south dipole pattern. Based on the two leading modes, the characteristics of the extreme cold and warm days in the two patterns, defined by the standard deviation larger than 1.28 or smaller than-1.28 in the time series of the two leading modes, are analyzed. With the increase of winter SAT during 1961–2017, the number of spatially consistent extreme cold days decreased and their occurrence was restricted to late December to early January, whereas the number of spatially consistent extreme warm days increased significantly in January and February. Global warming is associated with an increase in the spatially consistent extreme warm days and a decrease in spatially consistent extreme cold days, but has little relation to the sum of extreme cold and warm days of either the spatially consistent or north-south dipole pattern. The Siberian High(SH) is the main factor controlling the sum of spatially consistent extreme warm and cold days. The strong(weak) SH before(after) the1990 s corresponds to an increase(decrease) in the sum of the spatially consistent extreme warm and cold days. The occurrences of extreme south-cold-north-warm and extreme south-warm-north-cold days are related to the north-south difference of the SH.When the center of the SH is in mid-high latitudes, the extreme south-warm-north-cold(south-cold-north-warm) days occur more(less) often. During the winters of 1961–2017, the total number of extreme cold and warm days of the north-south dipole pattern changes negligibly. The North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation(AMOC) may be the main factor affecting the sum of the extreme cold and warm days of the two types of SAT pattern in China.

Nonlinear changes in cold spell and heat wave arising from Arctic sea-ice loss

Whether Arctic sea-ice loss has significant impacts on climate extremes in mid-and high-latitudes remains uncertain.Here we show the full response of cold and warm extremes under two Arctic sea-ice loss scenarios utilizing a coupled global climate model that permits the air-sea coupling.Our results show that the amount of Arctic sea-ice loss determines the spatial extent and magnitude of the weakening of atmospheric circulation in mid-and high-latitudes of the northern hemisphere,leading to nonlinear changes in cold and warm extremes.A relatively localized and moderate weakening of atmospheric circulation induced by the projected sea-ice loss in the next two decades would contribute to less winter cold extremes over the Northern Hemispheric continents.The risks of winter cold spells would be dramatically reduced as the amount of sea-ice loss is increased to the ice-free state.In contrast,as sea-ice loss increases,the continental regions would have increased risk of heat waves over all mid-and high-latitudes.