It is an objective fact that the weather is unpredictable.Even the famous meteorologist,Academician Chu Ko Chen,has only a partial understanding of the changing laws of wind and rain.Even though ancient people summari...It is an objective fact that the weather is unpredictable.Even the famous meteorologist,Academician Chu Ko Chen,has only a partial understanding of the changing laws of wind and rain.Even though ancient people summarized the 24 solar terms by observing the annual activities of the sun for a long time,because they ignored the impact of the activities of the moon on the Earth’s climate change on a small scale,the 24 solar terms they summarized often could not accurately predict the change of the Earth’s climate.Therefore,the author studied the influence of lunar activities on the Earth’s climate change,finds out the law of the influence of lunar activities on the Earth’s climate change on a small scale,and summarizes the eternal climate change pattern determined by the activities of the sun and the moon.In addition,the author also reveals the causes and countermeasures of global warming and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather as well as environmental change.展开更多
The weather conditions of the summer of 2022 were very unusual,particularly in Eastern Asia,Europe,and North America.The devasting impact of climate change has come to our attention,with much hotter and drier conditio...The weather conditions of the summer of 2022 were very unusual,particularly in Eastern Asia,Europe,and North America.The devasting impact of climate change has come to our attention,with much hotter and drier conditions,and with more frequent and intense flooding events.Some extreme events have reached a dangerous level,increasingly threatening human lives.The interconnected risks caused by these extreme disaster events are triggering a chain effect,forcing us to respond to these crises through changes in our living environment,which affect the atmosphere,the biosphere,the economy including the availability of energy,our cities,and our global society.Moreover,we have to confront the abnormal consequences of untypical,rapid changes of extreme events and fast switches between extreme states,such as from severe drought to devastating flooding.Recognizing this new situation,it is crucial to improve the adaptation capacity of our societies in order to reduce the risks associated with climate change,and to develop smarter strategies for climate governance.High-quality development must be science-based,balanced,safe,sustainable,and climate-resilient,supported by the collaborative governance of climate mitigation and adaptation.This article provides some recommendations and suggestions for resilience building and collaborative governance with respect to climate adaptation in response to a new planetary state that is characterized by more frequent and severe extreme weather events.展开更多
The study area is located between the cities of Comitan (16°10'43"N and 92°04'20''W) a city with 150,000 inhabitants and La Esperanza (16°9'15''N and 91°...The study area is located between the cities of Comitan (16°10'43"N and 92°04'20''W) a city with 150,000 inhabitants and La Esperanza (16°9'15''N and 91°52'5''W) a town with 3000 inhabitants. Both weather stations are 30 km from each other in the Chiapas State, México. 54 years of daily records of the series of maximum (<em>t</em><sub>max</sub>) and minimum temperatures (<em>t</em><sub>min</sub>) of the weather station 07205 Comitan that is on top of a house and 30 years of daily records of the weather station 07374 La Esperanza were analyzed. The objective is to analyze the evidence of climate change in the Comitan valley. 2.07% and 19.04% of missing data were filled, respectively, with the WS method. In order to verify homogeneity three methods were used: Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), the Von Neumann method and the Buishand method. The heterogeneous series were homogenized using climatol. The trends of <em>t</em><sub>max</sub> and <em>t</em><sub>min</sub> for both weather stations were analyzed by simple linear regression, Sperman’s rho and Mann-Kendall tests. The Mann-Kendal test method confirmed the warming trend at the Comitan station for both variables with <em>Z<sub>MK</sub></em> statistic values equal to 1.57 (statistically not significant) and 4.64 (statistically significant). However, for the Esperanza station, it determined a cooling trend for tmin and a slight non-significant warming for <em>t</em><sub>max</sub> with a <em>Z</em><sub><em>MK</em></sub> statistic of -2.27 (statistically significant) and 1.16 (statistically not significant), for a significance level <em>α</em> = 0.05.展开更多
Public engagement is essential for China to address climate change;however,few studies have explored how to encourage climate awareness among Chinese residents.The objective of this study is to explore the role of loc...Public engagement is essential for China to address climate change;however,few studies have explored how to encourage climate awareness among Chinese residents.The objective of this study is to explore the role of local extreme weather in advancing Chinese people's climate change awareness.Whether local extreme weather functions as an opportunity to trigger the public's interest in climate change across China and whether the local online information environment resonances with extreme weather by providing climate change news feeds have been examined by a combination of city-level meteorological warnings and search engine data.The results have verified that residents from 50 of the 360 cities show increasing concern for climate change when an extreme weather event occurs locally;however,only the online information environment of two cities echoes local extreme weather by providing more information about climate change or global warming.Correlations between extreme weather events such as heavy rain,an extreme weather event that has occurred in China,and climate change are underestimated.The effect of extreme cold events and snowfall on climate change awareness should also be noted more in China.This study suggests there is still a lot of room for improvement regarding both increasing and satisfying the public's pre-existing climate change-related concerns.A promising approach would be adopting climate change prevention and adaptation as a news report framework for extreme weather events.展开更多
Crop and livestock production is critical to food security in The Gambia. Over the years, the country has experienced a reduced yield due to perceived climate change events with limited studies on how climate change a...Crop and livestock production is critical to food security in The Gambia. Over the years, the country has experienced a reduced yield due to perceived climate change events with limited studies on how climate change and pollution affect crop production. This study assesses farmers’ knowledge and perceptions of the effects of climate variability and pollution on crop production and their varying adaptation strategies in The Gambia. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used in this study. The sample size for quantitative data collection was calculated as 432 while the qualitative data involves both the focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The focus group discussions comprised two districts in each of the six agricultural regions and two farming communities engaged in crop production were chosen from each district. Furthermore, eight key informant interviews from relevant institutions were conducted. The study shows that The Gambia is highly vulnerable to extreme climatic events. Although most farmers opined that agricultural land contamination emanates from farm runoff and indiscriminate waste dumping, they had little knowledge of heavy metal pollution and bioremediation. The results showed that farmers experienced constraints such as inadequate access to credit, water, and irrigation facilities, insufficient access to efficient inputs, salt intrusion, etc. which threatened food security. The study concludes that crop farmers acknowledged the existence and impacts of climate change, and therefore recommend the availability and affordability of climate change resilient crops and promote variability awareness campaigns to address climate change impacts in The Gambia.展开更多
Apart from the long-term effects of climate change, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events have been increasing. Given the risks posed by climate change, particularly the changes in extreme weather event...Apart from the long-term effects of climate change, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events have been increasing. Given the risks posed by climate change, particularly the changes in extreme weather events, the question of how to adapt to these changes and mitigate their negative impacts has received great attention from policy makers. The overall goals of this study are to examine whether farmers adapt to extreme weather events through crop diversification and which factors influence farmers' decisions on crop diversification against extreme weather events in China. To limit the scope of this study, we focus on drought and flood events only. Based on a unique large-scale household survey in nine provinces, this study finds that farmers respond to extreme weather events by increasing crop diversification. Their decision to diversify crops is significantly influenced by their experiences of extreme weather events in the previous year. Such results are understandable because farmers' behaviors are normally based on their expectations. Moreover, household characteristics also affect farmers' decisions on crop diversification strategy, and their effects differ by farmers' age and gender. This paper concludes with several policy implications.展开更多
Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4...Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4 ℃, and further compares the differences between 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ targets. Results show that relative to the pre-industrial era, the mean temperature over Asia increases by 2.3 ℃, 3.0 ℃, 4.6 ℃, and 6.0 ℃ at warming targets of 1.5 ℃, 2 ℃, 3 ℃, and 4 ℃, respectively, with stronger warming in high latitudes than in low latitudes. The corresponding enhancement in mean precipitation over the entire Asian region is 4.4%, 5.8%, 10.2%, and 13.0%, with significant regional differences. In addition, an increase in warm extremes, a decrease in cold extremes, and a strengthening in the variability of amounts of extreme precipitation are projected. Under the 1.5 ℃ target, compared with the climate under the 2 ℃ target, the mean temperature will be lower by 0.5-1 ℃ over Asia; the mean precipitation will be less by 5%-20% over most of Asia, but will be greater by about 10%-15% over West Asia and western South Asia; extreme high temperatures will be uniformly cooler throughout the Asian region, and the warming in extreme low temperatures will decrease significantly in high latitudes of Asia; extreme precipitation will be weaker over most of Asia but will be stronger over West Asia and western South Asia. Under the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming targets, the probability of very hot weather (anomalies greater than 1σ, σ is standard deviation), extremely hot weather (anomalies greater than 3or), and extremely heavy precipitation (anomalies greater than 3σ) occurring will increase by at least once, 10%, and 10%, respectively, compared to the reference period (1861-1900).展开更多
Projection of hazard changes in climate extremes is critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Using simulations of providing regional climates for impacts studies, fiv...Projection of hazard changes in climate extremes is critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Using simulations of providing regional climates for impacts studies, five indicators (rainstorm days, maximum 3-day precipitation, elevation, gradient and distance from river or lake) were selected to project the spatial patterns of flood hazard over Yangtze River Basin for the baseline period (1961– 1990) and future (2011–2100) under SRES B2 scenario. The results showed the mean annual rainstorm days over the basin by the near-term, mid-term and long-term would increase from 3.9 days to 4.7, 4.9 and 5.1 days, and the mean annual maximum 3-day precipitation from 122 mm to 143, 146 and 149 mm, respectively. The flood hazard of the basin would become more severe, especially in the middle and lower reaches. Flood hazard grade 5 by the nearterm, mid-term and long-term would extend from 10.99% to 25.46, 28.14 and 29.75%, respectively.展开更多
Coral reefs have largely declined across multiple spatial scales due to a combination of local-scale anthropogenic impacts, and due to regional-global climate change. This has resulted in a significant loss of entire ...Coral reefs have largely declined across multiple spatial scales due to a combination of local-scale anthropogenic impacts, and due to regional-global climate change. This has resulted in a significant loss of entire coral functional groups, including western Atlantic Staghorn coral (Acropora cervicornis) biotopes, and in a net decline of coral reef ecosystem resilience, ecological functions, services and benefits. Low-tech coral farming has become one of the most important tools to help restore depleted coral reefs across the Wider Caribbean Region. We tested a community-based, low-tech coral farming approach in Culebra Island, Puerto Rico, aimed at adapting to climate change-related impacts through a two-year project to propagate A. cervicornis under two contrasting fishing management conditions, in coastal areas experimenting significant land use changes. Extreme rainfall events and recurrent tropical storms and hurricanes had major site-and method-specific impacts on project outcome, particularly in areas adjacent to deforested lands and subjected to recurrent impacts from land-based source pollution (LBSP) and runoff. Overall, coral survival rate in “A frame” units improved from 73% during 2011-2012 to 81% during 2012-2013. Coral survival rate improved to 97% in horizontal line nurseries (HLN) incorporated during 2012-2013. Percent tissue cover ranged from 86% to 91% in “A frames”, but reached 98% in HLN. Mean coral skeletal extension was 27 cm/y in “A frames” and 40 cm/y in HLN. These growth rates were up to 545% to 857% faster than previous reports from coral farms from other parts of the Caribbean, and up to 438% faster than wild colonies. Branch production and branchiness index (no. harvestable branches > 6 cm) increased by several orders of magnitude in comparison to the original colonies at the beginning of the project. Coral mortality was associated to hurricane physical impacts and sediment-laden runoff impacts associated to extreme rainfall and deforestation of adjacent lands. This raises a challenging question regarding the impact of chronic high sea surface temperature (SST), in combination with recurrent high nutrient pulses, in fostering increased coral growth at the expense of coral physiological conditions which may compromise corals resistance to disturbance. Achieving successful local management of reefs and adjacent lands is vital to maintain the sustained net production in coral farms and of reef structure, and the provision of the important ecosystem services that they provide. These measures are vital for buying time for reefs while global action on climate change is implemented. Adaptive community-based strategies are critical to strengthen institutional management efforts. But government agencies need to transparently build local trust, empower local stakeholders, and foster co-management to be fully successful. Failing to achieve that could make community-based coral reef rehabilitation more challenging, and could potentially drive rapidly declining, transient coral reefs into the slippery slope to slime.展开更多
With the rapid development of social economy,the strategic position of civil aviation in the national economy is highlighted,and its development potential is enormous.Extreme weather events under the background of cli...With the rapid development of social economy,the strategic position of civil aviation in the national economy is highlighted,and its development potential is enormous.Extreme weather events under the background of climate change have brought great challenges to aviation safety.Starting with the rapid development of civil aviation in China,based on the trend of increasing the risk of aviation security and the risk of economic loss under the warming background,the effect of climate change on aviation safety development was analyzed from seven aspects: extreme weather and climate events affecting aviation safety,the number of takeoff limit days,fog and haze (low visibility) affecting aviation safety,flight time increasing,takeoff condition of high plateau airport changing,aircraft corrosion and clear-air turbulence,and the possible impact of the development of aviation industry on climate change was analyzed.Finally,based on the mutual influence of climate change and aviation industry,five policy suggestions were proposed,including the scientific planning of the new airport layout,the construction of the aviation meteorological data sharing platform,the comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate change on the aviation,the development of the aeronautical weather index insurance and new risk response training for aviation staff under the background of climate change.This study has a reference value for a comprehensive understanding of the interaction between climate change and the development of aviation safety in China.展开更多
Grape production is likewise inherently interconnected to climate and weather, and, although grapes may grow worldwide, premium wine-grape production occurs in Mediterranean-like climate ranges. Changes in climate and...Grape production is likewise inherently interconnected to climate and weather, and, although grapes may grow worldwide, premium wine-grape production occurs in Mediterranean-like climate ranges. Changes in climate and weather patterns are threatening premium wine-grapes, directly affecting the European wine industry. This is because grapevines are extremely sensitive to their surrounding environment, with seasonal variations in yield much higher than other common crops, such as cereals. With a view to making South European wine industry resilient to climate change, VISCA (Vineyards Integrated Smart Climate Application) project has deployed a Climate Service (CS) Decision Support System (DSS) tool that provides to wine producers with well-founded information to be able to apply correctly adaptation strategies on specific grape varieties and locations, and to achieve optimum production results (e.g., yield and quantity). In this paper we show the meteorological, seasonal and climatic models and data sets used to answer the viticulturist needs;from short-term and mid-term forecast to seasonal forecast and climate projections.展开更多
Extreme precipitation-induced landslide events are projected to increase under climate change,which poses a serious threat to human lives and property.In this study,a global-scale landslide risk assessment model was e...Extreme precipitation-induced landslide events are projected to increase under climate change,which poses a serious threat to human lives and property.In this study,a global-scale landslide risk assessment model was established using global landslide data,by considering landslide hazard,exposure,and vulnerability.The global climate model data were then employed to drive the established global landslide risk model to explore the spatial and temporal variations in future landslide risk across the globe as a result of extreme precipitation changes.The results show that compared to the 30-year period from 1971 to 2000,the average annual frequency of landslides triggered by extreme precipitation is projected to increase by 7%and 10%,respectively,in the future 30-year periods of 2031–2060 and 2066–2095.The global average annual casualty risk of landslides is projected to increase from about 3240 to 7670 and 8380,respectively(with growth rates of 140%and 160%),during the 2031–2060 and 2066–2095 periods under the SSP2-4.5 scenario.The top 10 countries with the highest casualty risk of landslides are China,Afghanistan,India,the Philippines,Indonesia,Rwanda,Turkey,Nepal,Guatemala,and Brazil,60%of which are located in Asia.The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation will increase under climate change,which will lead to an increase in casualties from landslides in mountainous areas globally,and this risk should be taken seriously.The present study was an attempt to investigate and quantify the impact of global landslide casualty risk under climate change,which still has uncertainty in terms of outcomes,and there remains a need for further understanding in the future of the propagation of uncertainty between the factors that affect the risk.展开更多
Seagrass meadows provide important ecological functions,particularly by serving as carbon sinks and breeding grounds for marine species.Climate change has threatened seagrass communities,causing their replacement,loss...Seagrass meadows provide important ecological functions,particularly by serving as carbon sinks and breeding grounds for marine species.Climate change has threatened seagrass communities,causing their replacement,loss and increased vulnerability.This review examined scholarly articles published between 2010-2021 to comprehensively present the impacts of climate change on seagrass meadows.It shows that ocean warming negatively affects seagrass communities by favouring communities of lower structuring capacities,thus reducing the effectiveness of their ecological functions.Ocean warming also promotes the propagation and spread of invasive species,and changes the trophic structures leading to further loss of seagrasses of value.Higher seawater temperature is associated with shoot mortality and retarded growth of certain seagrasses.Sea level rise causes more wave energy to be received by coastal seagrass communities,thus,creating more damage to the communities.Deepening sea limits light penetration and alters distribution of seagrass meadows.Carbon dioxide enrichment of seawater increases photosynthetic rate of seagrasses but ocean warming and acidification counteract this beneficial effect.Carbon dioxide enrichment affects different seagrass species and different parts of a seagrass species differently,and,where beneficial to seagrass communities,could enhance their ecological services.Temperature extremes could kill seagrasses while marine heatwaves and flooding could act synergistically to increase carbon demand of certain seagrasses and unfavourably change their biomass.These impacts are often aggravated by anthropogenic activities.This review calls for more studies and conservation efforts to understand the impacts of climate change on seagrass communities and future-proof them against the changing climate.展开更多
Extreme weather conditions occur at an increasing rate as evidenced by higher frequency of hurricanes and more extreme precipitation and temperature anomalies. Such extreme environmental conditions will have important...Extreme weather conditions occur at an increasing rate as evidenced by higher frequency of hurricanes and more extreme precipitation and temperature anomalies. Such extreme environmental conditions will have important implications for all living organisms through greater frequency of reproductive failure and reduced adult survival. We review examples of reproductive failure and reduced survival related to extreme weather conditions. Phenotypic plasticity may not be sufficient to allow adaptation to extreme weather for many animals. Theory predicts reduced reproductive effort as a response to increased stochasticity. We predict that patterns of natural selection will change towards truncation selection as environmental conditions become more extreme. Such changes in patterns of selection may facilitate adaptation to extreme events. However, effects of selection on reproductive effort are difficult to detect. We present a number of predictions for the effects of extreme weather conditions in need of empirical tests. Finally, we suggest a number of empirical reviews that could improve our ability to judge the effects of extreme environmental conditions on life history [Current Zoology 57 (3): 375-389, 2011].展开更多
Although sea levels are predicted to rise 1 to 2 meters by 2100, the more immediate effects of global warming are weather extremes. The number of natural disasters since 1996 costing $1 billion or more doubled compare...Although sea levels are predicted to rise 1 to 2 meters by 2100, the more immediate effects of global warming are weather extremes. The number of natural disasters since 1996 costing $1 billion or more doubled compared with the previous 15-year period. Extreme summer heat anomalies now cover about 10% of land area, up from 0.2% in 1950-1980. The human influence on global warming is evident from climate data and physical modeling. Since the beginning of the industrial era, carbon dioxide (CO2) increases correlate with those of temperature. Carbon dating shows that the CO2 increase is from burning ancient fossil fuels. Increasing CO2 and other greenhouse gases blanket and warm the earth’s surface, allowing less heat to reach the stratosphere, which is cooling. This is consistent with satellite measurements showing that solar irradiance is not changing. The present CO2 rate increase of 2 ppm/year is 300 times higher than the rate at which the earth recovered from the ice age 18,000 years ago. Without the radiative forcing of noncondensing persistent CO2, the terrestrial greenhouse would collapse, plunging the global climate into an icebound earth state. Will new technologies lower our carbon emissions in time to prevent more weather extremes? Electric cars now get the equivalent of 100 miles per gallon. The cost of electricity from solar photovoltaic cells has reached grid parity.展开更多
Unusually severe weather is occurring more frequently due to global climate change. Heat waves, rainstorms, snowstorms, and droughts are becoming increasingly common all over the world, threatening human lives and pro...Unusually severe weather is occurring more frequently due to global climate change. Heat waves, rainstorms, snowstorms, and droughts are becoming increasingly common all over the world, threatening human lives and property. Both temperature and precipitation are representative variables usually used to directly reflect and forecast the influences of climate change. In this study, daily data (from 1953 to 1995) and monthly data (from 1950 to 2010) of temperature and precipitation in five regions of the Amur River were examined. The significance of changes in temperature and precipitation was tested using the Mann-Kendall test method. The amplitudes were computed using the linear least-squares regression model, and the extreme temperature and precipitation were analyzed using hydrological statistical methods. The results show the following: the mean annual temperature increased significantly from 1950 to 2010 in the five regions, mainly due to the warming in spring and winter; the annual precipitation changed significantly from 1950 to 2010 only in the lower mainstream of the Amur River; the frequency of extremely low temperature events decreased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River; the frequency of high temperature events increased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River; and the frequency of extreme precipitation events did not change significantly from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River. This study provides a valuable theoretical basis for settling disputes between China and Russia on sustainable development and utilization of water resources of the Amur River.展开更多
Wet grasslands are threatened by future climate change,yet these are vital ecosystems for both conservation and agriculture,providing livelihoods for millions of people.These biologically diverse,transitional wetlands...Wet grasslands are threatened by future climate change,yet these are vital ecosystems for both conservation and agriculture,providing livelihoods for millions of people.These biologically diverse,transitional wetlands are defined by an abundance of grasses and periodic flooding,and maintained by regular disturbances such as grazing or cutting.This study summarizes relevant climate change scenarios projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and identifies implications for wet grasslands globally and regionally.Climate change is predicted to alter wet grassland hydrology,especially through warming,seasonal precipitation variability,and the severity of extreme events such as droughts and floods.Changes in the diversity,composition,and productivity of vegetation will affect functional and competitive relations between species.Extreme storm or flood events will favor ruderal plant species able to respond rapidly to environmental change.In some regions,wet grasslands may dry out during heatwaves and drought.C4 grasses and invasive species could benefit from warming scenarios,the latter facilitated by disturbances such as droughts,floods,and possibly wildfires.Agriculture will be affected as forage available for livestock will likely become less reliable,necessitating adaptations to cutting and grazing regimes by farmers and conservation managers,and possibly leading to land abandonment.It is recommended that agri-environment schemes,and other policies and practices,are adapted to mitigate climate change,with greater emphasis on water maintenance,flexible management,monitoring,and restoration of resilient wet grasslands.展开更多
Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters,often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide.It is therefore important to use current global climate...Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters,often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide.It is therefore important to use current global climate models to project future changes in precipitation extremes.The present study aims to assess the future changes in precipitation extremes over South Asia from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)Global Climate Models(GCMs).The results were derived using the modified Mann-Kendall test,Sen's slope estimator,student's t-test,and probability density function approach.Eight extreme precipitation indices were assessed,including wet days(RR1mm),heavy precipitation days(RR10mm),very heavy precipitation days(RR20mm),severe precipitation days(RR50mm),consecutive wet days(CWD),consecutive dry days(CDD),maximum 5-day precipitation amount(RX5day),and simple daily intensity index(SDII).The future changes were estimated in two time periods for the 21^(st) century(i.e.,near future(NF;2021-2060)and far future(FF;2061-2100))under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).The results suggest increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation indices under the SSP5-8.5 scenario towards the end of the 21^(st) century(2061-2100).Moreover,from the results of multimodel ensemble means(MMEMs),extreme precipitation indices of RR1mm,RR10mm,RR20mm,CWD,and SDII demonstrate remarkable increases in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices shows intensification over the eastern part of South Asia compared to the western part.The probability density function of extreme precipitation indices suggests a frequent(intense)occurrence of precipitation extremes in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,with values up to 35.00 d for RR1mm and 25.00-35.00 d for CWD.The potential impacts of heavy precipitation can pose serious challenges to the study area regarding flooding,soil erosion,water resource management,food security,and agriculture development.展开更多
History has shown that occurrences of extreme weather are becoming more frequent and with greater impact,regardless of one's geographical location.In a risk analysis setting,what will happen,how likely it is to ha...History has shown that occurrences of extreme weather are becoming more frequent and with greater impact,regardless of one's geographical location.In a risk analysis setting,what will happen,how likely it is to happen,and what are the consequences,are motivating questions searching for answers.To help address these considerations,this study introduced and applied a hybrid simulation model developed for the purpose of improving understanding of the costs of extreme weather events in the form of loss and damage,based on empirical data in the contiguous United States.Model results are encouraging,showing on average a mean cost estimate within 5%of the historical cost.This creates opportunities to improve the accuracy in estimating the expected costs of such events for a specific event type and geographic location.In turn,by having a more credible price point in determining the cost-effectiveness of various infrastructure adaptation strategies,it can help in making the business case for resilience investment.展开更多
Climate extreme events have threatened food security and the second Sustainable development goals (SDGs) “zero hunger” both directly via agricultural food loss and indirectly through rising food prices. We systemati...Climate extreme events have threatened food security and the second Sustainable development goals (SDGs) “zero hunger” both directly via agricultural food loss and indirectly through rising food prices. We systematically searched and used a combination of results from various models, which play a crucial role in predicting the potential impact of climate change on agricultural production and food price. Therefore, we searched online databases including EMBASE, Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar, and grey literature. Then observational studies were included from January 1990 to August 2021, which reported food price proportion under climate disturbances. Results showed that 22 out of 26 studies from 615 articles, identified in the meta-analysis predicted the food price ratio would be fluctuated up to 28% before 2020, while the ratio will be marked up at 31% from 2020 to 2049 and then will scale down during 2050-2100. The compiled ratio was estimated at 26% in the long period between 2000 until 2100 under climatic weather events. Drought was a significant weather disturbance with a 32% increase in food prices. Consequently, the Food price increase will significantly affect food accessibility in lower-income countries, primarily until 2050. Policymakers should prioritize and act through redesigning food security policies according to climatic extremes in their settings.展开更多
文摘It is an objective fact that the weather is unpredictable.Even the famous meteorologist,Academician Chu Ko Chen,has only a partial understanding of the changing laws of wind and rain.Even though ancient people summarized the 24 solar terms by observing the annual activities of the sun for a long time,because they ignored the impact of the activities of the moon on the Earth’s climate change on a small scale,the 24 solar terms they summarized often could not accurately predict the change of the Earth’s climate.Therefore,the author studied the influence of lunar activities on the Earth’s climate change,finds out the law of the influence of lunar activities on the Earth’s climate change on a small scale,and summarizes the eternal climate change pattern determined by the activities of the sun and the moon.In addition,the author also reveals the causes and countermeasures of global warming and the frequent occurrence of extreme weather as well as environmental change.
基金the support from the Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction of Air Quality (MAP-AQ) projectthe Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) program+1 种基金funded by the Shanghai International Science and Technology Partnership Project (Grant Number 21230780200)the Shanghai B&R Joint Laboratory Project (Grant Number 22230750300)
文摘The weather conditions of the summer of 2022 were very unusual,particularly in Eastern Asia,Europe,and North America.The devasting impact of climate change has come to our attention,with much hotter and drier conditions,and with more frequent and intense flooding events.Some extreme events have reached a dangerous level,increasingly threatening human lives.The interconnected risks caused by these extreme disaster events are triggering a chain effect,forcing us to respond to these crises through changes in our living environment,which affect the atmosphere,the biosphere,the economy including the availability of energy,our cities,and our global society.Moreover,we have to confront the abnormal consequences of untypical,rapid changes of extreme events and fast switches between extreme states,such as from severe drought to devastating flooding.Recognizing this new situation,it is crucial to improve the adaptation capacity of our societies in order to reduce the risks associated with climate change,and to develop smarter strategies for climate governance.High-quality development must be science-based,balanced,safe,sustainable,and climate-resilient,supported by the collaborative governance of climate mitigation and adaptation.This article provides some recommendations and suggestions for resilience building and collaborative governance with respect to climate adaptation in response to a new planetary state that is characterized by more frequent and severe extreme weather events.
文摘The study area is located between the cities of Comitan (16°10'43"N and 92°04'20''W) a city with 150,000 inhabitants and La Esperanza (16°9'15''N and 91°52'5''W) a town with 3000 inhabitants. Both weather stations are 30 km from each other in the Chiapas State, México. 54 years of daily records of the series of maximum (<em>t</em><sub>max</sub>) and minimum temperatures (<em>t</em><sub>min</sub>) of the weather station 07205 Comitan that is on top of a house and 30 years of daily records of the weather station 07374 La Esperanza were analyzed. The objective is to analyze the evidence of climate change in the Comitan valley. 2.07% and 19.04% of missing data were filled, respectively, with the WS method. In order to verify homogeneity three methods were used: Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), the Von Neumann method and the Buishand method. The heterogeneous series were homogenized using climatol. The trends of <em>t</em><sub>max</sub> and <em>t</em><sub>min</sub> for both weather stations were analyzed by simple linear regression, Sperman’s rho and Mann-Kendall tests. The Mann-Kendal test method confirmed the warming trend at the Comitan station for both variables with <em>Z<sub>MK</sub></em> statistic values equal to 1.57 (statistically not significant) and 4.64 (statistically significant). However, for the Esperanza station, it determined a cooling trend for tmin and a slight non-significant warming for <em>t</em><sub>max</sub> with a <em>Z</em><sub><em>MK</em></sub> statistic of -2.27 (statistically significant) and 1.16 (statistically not significant), for a significance level <em>α</em> = 0.05.
基金supported by the Research on the Dissemination and Governance of False Information on Social Media Platforms Under the‘Healthy China 2030’Strategy(22BXW069),National Social Science Fund General Project of China.
文摘Public engagement is essential for China to address climate change;however,few studies have explored how to encourage climate awareness among Chinese residents.The objective of this study is to explore the role of local extreme weather in advancing Chinese people's climate change awareness.Whether local extreme weather functions as an opportunity to trigger the public's interest in climate change across China and whether the local online information environment resonances with extreme weather by providing climate change news feeds have been examined by a combination of city-level meteorological warnings and search engine data.The results have verified that residents from 50 of the 360 cities show increasing concern for climate change when an extreme weather event occurs locally;however,only the online information environment of two cities echoes local extreme weather by providing more information about climate change or global warming.Correlations between extreme weather events such as heavy rain,an extreme weather event that has occurred in China,and climate change are underestimated.The effect of extreme cold events and snowfall on climate change awareness should also be noted more in China.This study suggests there is still a lot of room for improvement regarding both increasing and satisfying the public's pre-existing climate change-related concerns.A promising approach would be adopting climate change prevention and adaptation as a news report framework for extreme weather events.
文摘Crop and livestock production is critical to food security in The Gambia. Over the years, the country has experienced a reduced yield due to perceived climate change events with limited studies on how climate change and pollution affect crop production. This study assesses farmers’ knowledge and perceptions of the effects of climate variability and pollution on crop production and their varying adaptation strategies in The Gambia. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used in this study. The sample size for quantitative data collection was calculated as 432 while the qualitative data involves both the focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The focus group discussions comprised two districts in each of the six agricultural regions and two farming communities engaged in crop production were chosen from each district. Furthermore, eight key informant interviews from relevant institutions were conducted. The study shows that The Gambia is highly vulnerable to extreme climatic events. Although most farmers opined that agricultural land contamination emanates from farm runoff and indiscriminate waste dumping, they had little knowledge of heavy metal pollution and bioremediation. The results showed that farmers experienced constraints such as inadequate access to credit, water, and irrigation facilities, insufficient access to efficient inputs, salt intrusion, etc. which threatened food security. The study concludes that crop farmers acknowledged the existence and impacts of climate change, and therefore recommend the availability and affordability of climate change resilient crops and promote variability awareness campaigns to address climate change impacts in The Gambia.
基金the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program,2012CB955700)the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China(70925001,71161140351)+1 种基金the International Development Research Center(107093-001)the Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research(ADP/2010/070)
文摘Apart from the long-term effects of climate change, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events have been increasing. Given the risks posed by climate change, particularly the changes in extreme weather events, the question of how to adapt to these changes and mitigate their negative impacts has received great attention from policy makers. The overall goals of this study are to examine whether farmers adapt to extreme weather events through crop diversification and which factors influence farmers' decisions on crop diversification against extreme weather events in China. To limit the scope of this study, we focus on drought and flood events only. Based on a unique large-scale household survey in nine provinces, this study finds that farmers respond to extreme weather events by increasing crop diversification. Their decision to diversify crops is significantly influenced by their experiences of extreme weather events in the previous year. Such results are understandable because farmers' behaviors are normally based on their expectations. Moreover, household characteristics also affect farmers' decisions on crop diversification strategy, and their effects differ by farmers' age and gender. This paper concludes with several policy implications.
基金Acknowledgments This research was jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0600701), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41675069), and the Climate Change Specific Fund of China (CCSF201731).
文摘Based on simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates changes in mean temperature and precipitation and their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4 ℃, and further compares the differences between 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ targets. Results show that relative to the pre-industrial era, the mean temperature over Asia increases by 2.3 ℃, 3.0 ℃, 4.6 ℃, and 6.0 ℃ at warming targets of 1.5 ℃, 2 ℃, 3 ℃, and 4 ℃, respectively, with stronger warming in high latitudes than in low latitudes. The corresponding enhancement in mean precipitation over the entire Asian region is 4.4%, 5.8%, 10.2%, and 13.0%, with significant regional differences. In addition, an increase in warm extremes, a decrease in cold extremes, and a strengthening in the variability of amounts of extreme precipitation are projected. Under the 1.5 ℃ target, compared with the climate under the 2 ℃ target, the mean temperature will be lower by 0.5-1 ℃ over Asia; the mean precipitation will be less by 5%-20% over most of Asia, but will be greater by about 10%-15% over West Asia and western South Asia; extreme high temperatures will be uniformly cooler throughout the Asian region, and the warming in extreme low temperatures will decrease significantly in high latitudes of Asia; extreme precipitation will be weaker over most of Asia but will be stronger over West Asia and western South Asia. Under the 1.5 ℃ and 2 ℃ warming targets, the probability of very hot weather (anomalies greater than 1σ, σ is standard deviation), extremely hot weather (anomalies greater than 3or), and extremely heavy precipitation (anomalies greater than 3σ) occurring will increase by at least once, 10%, and 10%, respectively, compared to the reference period (1861-1900).
基金supported by the National Technology R&D Program (Grant nos. 2006BAD20B05 and 2008BAK50B06)
文摘Projection of hazard changes in climate extremes is critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Using simulations of providing regional climates for impacts studies, five indicators (rainstorm days, maximum 3-day precipitation, elevation, gradient and distance from river or lake) were selected to project the spatial patterns of flood hazard over Yangtze River Basin for the baseline period (1961– 1990) and future (2011–2100) under SRES B2 scenario. The results showed the mean annual rainstorm days over the basin by the near-term, mid-term and long-term would increase from 3.9 days to 4.7, 4.9 and 5.1 days, and the mean annual maximum 3-day precipitation from 122 mm to 143, 146 and 149 mm, respectively. The flood hazard of the basin would become more severe, especially in the middle and lower reaches. Flood hazard grade 5 by the nearterm, mid-term and long-term would extend from 10.99% to 25.46, 28.14 and 29.75%, respectively.
基金funding provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA)Restoration Center and The Nature Conservancy to Sociedad Ambiente Marino(MAR-SAM-110110)the National Science Foundation(HRD#0734826)through the Center for Applied Tropical Ecology and Conservation(CATEC),and the University of Puerto Rico’s Central Administration to E.A.Hernández-Delgado.
文摘Coral reefs have largely declined across multiple spatial scales due to a combination of local-scale anthropogenic impacts, and due to regional-global climate change. This has resulted in a significant loss of entire coral functional groups, including western Atlantic Staghorn coral (Acropora cervicornis) biotopes, and in a net decline of coral reef ecosystem resilience, ecological functions, services and benefits. Low-tech coral farming has become one of the most important tools to help restore depleted coral reefs across the Wider Caribbean Region. We tested a community-based, low-tech coral farming approach in Culebra Island, Puerto Rico, aimed at adapting to climate change-related impacts through a two-year project to propagate A. cervicornis under two contrasting fishing management conditions, in coastal areas experimenting significant land use changes. Extreme rainfall events and recurrent tropical storms and hurricanes had major site-and method-specific impacts on project outcome, particularly in areas adjacent to deforested lands and subjected to recurrent impacts from land-based source pollution (LBSP) and runoff. Overall, coral survival rate in “A frame” units improved from 73% during 2011-2012 to 81% during 2012-2013. Coral survival rate improved to 97% in horizontal line nurseries (HLN) incorporated during 2012-2013. Percent tissue cover ranged from 86% to 91% in “A frames”, but reached 98% in HLN. Mean coral skeletal extension was 27 cm/y in “A frames” and 40 cm/y in HLN. These growth rates were up to 545% to 857% faster than previous reports from coral farms from other parts of the Caribbean, and up to 438% faster than wild colonies. Branch production and branchiness index (no. harvestable branches > 6 cm) increased by several orders of magnitude in comparison to the original colonies at the beginning of the project. Coral mortality was associated to hurricane physical impacts and sediment-laden runoff impacts associated to extreme rainfall and deforestation of adjacent lands. This raises a challenging question regarding the impact of chronic high sea surface temperature (SST), in combination with recurrent high nutrient pulses, in fostering increased coral growth at the expense of coral physiological conditions which may compromise corals resistance to disturbance. Achieving successful local management of reefs and adjacent lands is vital to maintain the sustained net production in coral farms and of reef structure, and the provision of the important ecosystem services that they provide. These measures are vital for buying time for reefs while global action on climate change is implemented. Adaptive community-based strategies are critical to strengthen institutional management efforts. But government agencies need to transparently build local trust, empower local stakeholders, and foster co-management to be fully successful. Failing to achieve that could make community-based coral reef rehabilitation more challenging, and could potentially drive rapidly declining, transient coral reefs into the slippery slope to slime.
基金Supported by the China Post-doctoral Science Foundation(2019T120114,2019M650756)National Natural Science Fund(71790611,41801064)the Central Asian Atmospheric Science Research Fund(CAAS201804)
文摘With the rapid development of social economy,the strategic position of civil aviation in the national economy is highlighted,and its development potential is enormous.Extreme weather events under the background of climate change have brought great challenges to aviation safety.Starting with the rapid development of civil aviation in China,based on the trend of increasing the risk of aviation security and the risk of economic loss under the warming background,the effect of climate change on aviation safety development was analyzed from seven aspects: extreme weather and climate events affecting aviation safety,the number of takeoff limit days,fog and haze (low visibility) affecting aviation safety,flight time increasing,takeoff condition of high plateau airport changing,aircraft corrosion and clear-air turbulence,and the possible impact of the development of aviation industry on climate change was analyzed.Finally,based on the mutual influence of climate change and aviation industry,five policy suggestions were proposed,including the scientific planning of the new airport layout,the construction of the aviation meteorological data sharing platform,the comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate change on the aviation,the development of the aeronautical weather index insurance and new risk response training for aviation staff under the background of climate change.This study has a reference value for a comprehensive understanding of the interaction between climate change and the development of aviation safety in China.
文摘Grape production is likewise inherently interconnected to climate and weather, and, although grapes may grow worldwide, premium wine-grape production occurs in Mediterranean-like climate ranges. Changes in climate and weather patterns are threatening premium wine-grapes, directly affecting the European wine industry. This is because grapevines are extremely sensitive to their surrounding environment, with seasonal variations in yield much higher than other common crops, such as cereals. With a view to making South European wine industry resilient to climate change, VISCA (Vineyards Integrated Smart Climate Application) project has deployed a Climate Service (CS) Decision Support System (DSS) tool that provides to wine producers with well-founded information to be able to apply correctly adaptation strategies on specific grape varieties and locations, and to achieve optimum production results (e.g., yield and quantity). In this paper we show the meteorological, seasonal and climatic models and data sets used to answer the viticulturist needs;from short-term and mid-term forecast to seasonal forecast and climate projections.
基金The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(STEP,Grant No.2019QZKK0906)National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2023YFC3007204)supported this work。
文摘Extreme precipitation-induced landslide events are projected to increase under climate change,which poses a serious threat to human lives and property.In this study,a global-scale landslide risk assessment model was established using global landslide data,by considering landslide hazard,exposure,and vulnerability.The global climate model data were then employed to drive the established global landslide risk model to explore the spatial and temporal variations in future landslide risk across the globe as a result of extreme precipitation changes.The results show that compared to the 30-year period from 1971 to 2000,the average annual frequency of landslides triggered by extreme precipitation is projected to increase by 7%and 10%,respectively,in the future 30-year periods of 2031–2060 and 2066–2095.The global average annual casualty risk of landslides is projected to increase from about 3240 to 7670 and 8380,respectively(with growth rates of 140%and 160%),during the 2031–2060 and 2066–2095 periods under the SSP2-4.5 scenario.The top 10 countries with the highest casualty risk of landslides are China,Afghanistan,India,the Philippines,Indonesia,Rwanda,Turkey,Nepal,Guatemala,and Brazil,60%of which are located in Asia.The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation will increase under climate change,which will lead to an increase in casualties from landslides in mountainous areas globally,and this risk should be taken seriously.The present study was an attempt to investigate and quantify the impact of global landslide casualty risk under climate change,which still has uncertainty in terms of outcomes,and there remains a need for further understanding in the future of the propagation of uncertainty between the factors that affect the risk.
文摘Seagrass meadows provide important ecological functions,particularly by serving as carbon sinks and breeding grounds for marine species.Climate change has threatened seagrass communities,causing their replacement,loss and increased vulnerability.This review examined scholarly articles published between 2010-2021 to comprehensively present the impacts of climate change on seagrass meadows.It shows that ocean warming negatively affects seagrass communities by favouring communities of lower structuring capacities,thus reducing the effectiveness of their ecological functions.Ocean warming also promotes the propagation and spread of invasive species,and changes the trophic structures leading to further loss of seagrasses of value.Higher seawater temperature is associated with shoot mortality and retarded growth of certain seagrasses.Sea level rise causes more wave energy to be received by coastal seagrass communities,thus,creating more damage to the communities.Deepening sea limits light penetration and alters distribution of seagrass meadows.Carbon dioxide enrichment of seawater increases photosynthetic rate of seagrasses but ocean warming and acidification counteract this beneficial effect.Carbon dioxide enrichment affects different seagrass species and different parts of a seagrass species differently,and,where beneficial to seagrass communities,could enhance their ecological services.Temperature extremes could kill seagrasses while marine heatwaves and flooding could act synergistically to increase carbon demand of certain seagrasses and unfavourably change their biomass.These impacts are often aggravated by anthropogenic activities.This review calls for more studies and conservation efforts to understand the impacts of climate change on seagrass communities and future-proof them against the changing climate.
文摘Extreme weather conditions occur at an increasing rate as evidenced by higher frequency of hurricanes and more extreme precipitation and temperature anomalies. Such extreme environmental conditions will have important implications for all living organisms through greater frequency of reproductive failure and reduced adult survival. We review examples of reproductive failure and reduced survival related to extreme weather conditions. Phenotypic plasticity may not be sufficient to allow adaptation to extreme weather for many animals. Theory predicts reduced reproductive effort as a response to increased stochasticity. We predict that patterns of natural selection will change towards truncation selection as environmental conditions become more extreme. Such changes in patterns of selection may facilitate adaptation to extreme events. However, effects of selection on reproductive effort are difficult to detect. We present a number of predictions for the effects of extreme weather conditions in need of empirical tests. Finally, we suggest a number of empirical reviews that could improve our ability to judge the effects of extreme environmental conditions on life history [Current Zoology 57 (3): 375-389, 2011].
文摘Although sea levels are predicted to rise 1 to 2 meters by 2100, the more immediate effects of global warming are weather extremes. The number of natural disasters since 1996 costing $1 billion or more doubled compared with the previous 15-year period. Extreme summer heat anomalies now cover about 10% of land area, up from 0.2% in 1950-1980. The human influence on global warming is evident from climate data and physical modeling. Since the beginning of the industrial era, carbon dioxide (CO2) increases correlate with those of temperature. Carbon dating shows that the CO2 increase is from burning ancient fossil fuels. Increasing CO2 and other greenhouse gases blanket and warm the earth’s surface, allowing less heat to reach the stratosphere, which is cooling. This is consistent with satellite measurements showing that solar irradiance is not changing. The present CO2 rate increase of 2 ppm/year is 300 times higher than the rate at which the earth recovered from the ice age 18,000 years ago. Without the radiative forcing of noncondensing persistent CO2, the terrestrial greenhouse would collapse, plunging the global climate into an icebound earth state. Will new technologies lower our carbon emissions in time to prevent more weather extremes? Electric cars now get the equivalent of 100 miles per gallon. The cost of electricity from solar photovoltaic cells has reached grid parity.
基金supported by the Innovative Project of Scientific Research for Postgraduates in Ordinary Universities in Jiangsu Province (Grant No. CX09B_161Z)the Cultivation Project for Excellent Doctoral Dissertations in Hohai University+1 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No.2010B18714)Special Funds for Scientific Research on Public Causes of the Ministry of Water Resources of China (Grant No. 201001052)
文摘Unusually severe weather is occurring more frequently due to global climate change. Heat waves, rainstorms, snowstorms, and droughts are becoming increasingly common all over the world, threatening human lives and property. Both temperature and precipitation are representative variables usually used to directly reflect and forecast the influences of climate change. In this study, daily data (from 1953 to 1995) and monthly data (from 1950 to 2010) of temperature and precipitation in five regions of the Amur River were examined. The significance of changes in temperature and precipitation was tested using the Mann-Kendall test method. The amplitudes were computed using the linear least-squares regression model, and the extreme temperature and precipitation were analyzed using hydrological statistical methods. The results show the following: the mean annual temperature increased significantly from 1950 to 2010 in the five regions, mainly due to the warming in spring and winter; the annual precipitation changed significantly from 1950 to 2010 only in the lower mainstream of the Amur River; the frequency of extremely low temperature events decreased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River; the frequency of high temperature events increased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River; and the frequency of extreme precipitation events did not change significantly from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River. This study provides a valuable theoretical basis for settling disputes between China and Russia on sustainable development and utilization of water resources of the Amur River.
文摘Wet grasslands are threatened by future climate change,yet these are vital ecosystems for both conservation and agriculture,providing livelihoods for millions of people.These biologically diverse,transitional wetlands are defined by an abundance of grasses and periodic flooding,and maintained by regular disturbances such as grazing or cutting.This study summarizes relevant climate change scenarios projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and identifies implications for wet grasslands globally and regionally.Climate change is predicted to alter wet grassland hydrology,especially through warming,seasonal precipitation variability,and the severity of extreme events such as droughts and floods.Changes in the diversity,composition,and productivity of vegetation will affect functional and competitive relations between species.Extreme storm or flood events will favor ruderal plant species able to respond rapidly to environmental change.In some regions,wet grasslands may dry out during heatwaves and drought.C4 grasses and invasive species could benefit from warming scenarios,the latter facilitated by disturbances such as droughts,floods,and possibly wildfires.Agriculture will be affected as forage available for livestock will likely become less reliable,necessitating adaptations to cutting and grazing regimes by farmers and conservation managers,and possibly leading to land abandonment.It is recommended that agri-environment schemes,and other policies and practices,are adapted to mitigate climate change,with greater emphasis on water maintenance,flexible management,monitoring,and restoration of resilient wet grasslands.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42130405)the Innovative and Entrepreneurial Talent Program of Jiangsu Province(R2020SC04)+1 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA2006030201)the Research Fund for International Young Scientists of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42150410381).
文摘Extreme precipitation events are one of the most dangerous hydrometeorological disasters,often resulting in significant human and socio-economic losses worldwide.It is therefore important to use current global climate models to project future changes in precipitation extremes.The present study aims to assess the future changes in precipitation extremes over South Asia from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)Global Climate Models(GCMs).The results were derived using the modified Mann-Kendall test,Sen's slope estimator,student's t-test,and probability density function approach.Eight extreme precipitation indices were assessed,including wet days(RR1mm),heavy precipitation days(RR10mm),very heavy precipitation days(RR20mm),severe precipitation days(RR50mm),consecutive wet days(CWD),consecutive dry days(CDD),maximum 5-day precipitation amount(RX5day),and simple daily intensity index(SDII).The future changes were estimated in two time periods for the 21^(st) century(i.e.,near future(NF;2021-2060)and far future(FF;2061-2100))under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).The results suggest increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation indices under the SSP5-8.5 scenario towards the end of the 21^(st) century(2061-2100).Moreover,from the results of multimodel ensemble means(MMEMs),extreme precipitation indices of RR1mm,RR10mm,RR20mm,CWD,and SDII demonstrate remarkable increases in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation indices shows intensification over the eastern part of South Asia compared to the western part.The probability density function of extreme precipitation indices suggests a frequent(intense)occurrence of precipitation extremes in the FF period under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,with values up to 35.00 d for RR1mm and 25.00-35.00 d for CWD.The potential impacts of heavy precipitation can pose serious challenges to the study area regarding flooding,soil erosion,water resource management,food security,and agriculture development.
文摘History has shown that occurrences of extreme weather are becoming more frequent and with greater impact,regardless of one's geographical location.In a risk analysis setting,what will happen,how likely it is to happen,and what are the consequences,are motivating questions searching for answers.To help address these considerations,this study introduced and applied a hybrid simulation model developed for the purpose of improving understanding of the costs of extreme weather events in the form of loss and damage,based on empirical data in the contiguous United States.Model results are encouraging,showing on average a mean cost estimate within 5%of the historical cost.This creates opportunities to improve the accuracy in estimating the expected costs of such events for a specific event type and geographic location.In turn,by having a more credible price point in determining the cost-effectiveness of various infrastructure adaptation strategies,it can help in making the business case for resilience investment.
文摘Climate extreme events have threatened food security and the second Sustainable development goals (SDGs) “zero hunger” both directly via agricultural food loss and indirectly through rising food prices. We systematically searched and used a combination of results from various models, which play a crucial role in predicting the potential impact of climate change on agricultural production and food price. Therefore, we searched online databases including EMBASE, Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar, and grey literature. Then observational studies were included from January 1990 to August 2021, which reported food price proportion under climate disturbances. Results showed that 22 out of 26 studies from 615 articles, identified in the meta-analysis predicted the food price ratio would be fluctuated up to 28% before 2020, while the ratio will be marked up at 31% from 2020 to 2049 and then will scale down during 2050-2100. The compiled ratio was estimated at 26% in the long period between 2000 until 2100 under climatic weather events. Drought was a significant weather disturbance with a 32% increase in food prices. Consequently, the Food price increase will significantly affect food accessibility in lower-income countries, primarily until 2050. Policymakers should prioritize and act through redesigning food security policies according to climatic extremes in their settings.