Role of land-atmosphere coupling in persistent extreme climate events in eastern China in summer 2022

2022年暖季,中国东部地区遭受持续性高温,少雨和土壤干旱的复合极端事件.特征分析指出,在研究时段内,中国东部地区的气温,降水和土壤湿度呈现明显的季节内变化和南北差异。由1940-2022年的气候态可知,长江流域和东南地区的土壤含水充足,蒸散主要受限于陆面有效能量.然而,潜在机制研究指出,2022年土壤湿度对蒸散的限制作用在上述区域异常偏强,土壤湿度与气候要素之间的强反馈可能在2022年复合极端事件的演变和持续中发挥了关键作用。

Projected Changes in Extreme Event Indices for Alaska

As climate has warmed in recent decades, Alaska has experienced a variety of high-impact extreme events that include heat waves, wildfires, coastal storms and freezing rain. Because the warming is projected to continue, it is essential to consider future changes when planning adaptation actions and building resilience. In this study, we synthesize information on future changes in extreme events in Alaska from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations performed as part of Arctic-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment). A set of 13 extreme event indices, based on those developed by the World Climate Research Programme’s Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), are evaluated from the Arctic-CORDEX output for Alaska. Of the 13 indices, six pertain to temperature, five to total precipitation, one to wind and one to snow. The results for locations in seven different climate zones of Alaska include large increases (5˚C - 10˚C) in the temperature thresholds for the five hottest and coldest days of the year, and large increases in warm spell duration and decreases in cold spell duration. Changes in the cold day temperature threshold are generally larger than the changes in the hot day temperature threshold, consistent with the projections of a stronger warming in winter than in summer in Alaska yearly maximum 1-day and 5-day precipitation amounts as well as the yearly number of consecutive wet days are projected to increase at all locations. The indices for heavy snow days and high-wind days show mixed changes, although the results indicate increases in heavy snow days at the more northern locations and increases in windy days at coastal locations. The changes in the extreme event indices continue through 2100 under the higher-emission (RCP 8.5) emission scenario, while the changes generally stabilize under the lower-emission (RCP 4.5) scenario. .

Understanding and Attribution of Extreme Heat and Drought Events in 2022: Current Situation and Future Challenges

Extreme weather events and their consequential impacts have been a key feature of the climate in recent years in many parts of the world,with many partly attributed to ongoing global-scale warming.The past year,2022,has been no exception,with further records being broken.The year was marked by unprecedented heatwaves and droughts with highly unusual spatial extent,duration and intensity,with one measure indicating an aggregated and overall intensity of extreme heat events worldwide not seen since at least 1950.The extreme drought measured by surface soil moisture covered 47.3%of global land areas in 2022,which was the second most widespread year since 1980.Here,we examine notable events of the year in five major regions of the world:China’s Yangtze River region,western Europe,the western U.S.,the Horn of Africa and central South America.For each event,we review the potential roles of circulation,oceanic forcing(especially the“triple-dip”La Niña)and anthropogenic climate change,with an aim of understanding the extreme events in 2022 from a global perspective.This will serve as a reference for mechanism understanding,prediction and attribution of extreme events.

A Statistical Linkage between Extreme Cold Wave Events in Southern China and Sea Ice Extent in the Barents-Kara Seas from 1289 to 2017

Arctic sea ice loss and the associated enhanced warming has been related to midlatitude weather and climate changes through modulate meridional temperature gradients linked to circulation. However, contrasting lines of evidence result in low confidence in the influence of Arctic warming on midlatitude climate. This study examines the additional perspectives that palaeoclimate evidence provides on the decadal relationship between autumn sea ice extent (SIE) in the Barents-Kara (B-K) Seas and extreme cold wave events (ECWEs) in southern China. Reconstruction of the winter Cold Index and SIE in the B-K Seas from 1289 to 2017 shows that a significant anti-phase relationship occurred during most periods of decreasing SIE, indicating that cold winters are more likely in low SIE years due to the “bridge” role of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Siberian High. It is confirmed that the recent increase in ECWEs in southern China is closely related to the sea ice decline in the B-K Seas. However, our results show that the linkage is unstable, especially in high SIE periods, and it is probably modulated by atmospheric internal variability.

Compound extreme events in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin from 1977 to 2018

Extreme climate events threaten human health,economic development,and ecosystems.Many studies have been conducted on extreme precipitation and temperature changes in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin(YZRB).However,little attention has been paid to compound climate extremes.In this study,the variations of wet/warm compound extreme events in summer and dry/cold compound extreme events in winter over the past 42 years in the YZRB were investigated using eight extreme climate indices that were estimated using monthly temperature and precipitation observations.The results showed that the numbers of frost days and ice days tended to decrease on the spatiotemporal scale,while the maximum values of daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature exhibited increasing trends.The frequency of wet/warm compound extreme events was significantly higher from 1998 to 2018 than from 1977 to 1997.Dry/cold compound extreme events became less frequent from 1998 to 2018 than from 1977 to 1997.The rate of increase of wet/warm compound extreme events was about ten times the absolute rate of decrease of dry/cold compound extreme events.With regard to the spatial pattern,the frequency of wet/warm compound extreme events increased significantly in almost all parts of the YZRB,while that of dry/cold compound extreme events decreased across the basin.This study helps to improve our understanding of the changes in compound precipitation and temperature extremes in the YZRB from a multivariable perspective.

Multiscale Combined Action and Disturbance Characteristics of Pre-summer Extreme Precipitation Events over South China

The dominant frequency modes of pre-summer extreme precipitation events(EPEs)over South China(SC)between1998 and 2018 were investigated.The 67 identified EPEs were all characterized by the 3-8-d(synoptic)frequency band.However,multiscale combined modes of the synoptic and three low-frequency bands[10-20-d(quasi-biweekly,QBW);15-40-d(quasi-monthly,QM);and 20-60-d(intraseasonal)]accounted for the majority(63%)of the EPEs,and the precipitation intensity on the peak wet day was larger than that of the single synoptic mode.It was found that EPEs form within strong southwesterly anomalous flows characterized by either lower-level cyclonic circulation over SC or a deep trough over eastern China.Bandpass-filtered disturbances revealed the direct precipitating systems and their life cycles.Synoptic-scale disturbances are dominated by mid-high latitude troughs,and the cyclonic anomalies originate from downstream of the Tibetan Plateau(TP).Given the warm and moist climate state,synoptic-scale northeasterly flows can even induce EPEs.At the QBW and QM scales,the disturbances originate from the tropical Pacific,downstream of the TP,or mid-high latitudes(QBW only).Each is characterized by cyclonic-anticyclonic wave trains and intense southwesterly flows between them within a region of large horizontal pressure gradient.The intraseasonal disturbances are confined to tropical regions and influence SC by marginal southwesterly flows.It is concluded that low-frequency disturbances provide favorable background conditions for EPEs over SC and synoptic-scale disturbances ultimately induce EPEs on the peak wet days.Both should be simultaneously considered for EPE predictions over SC.

Moisture Transport and Associated Background Circulation for the Regional Extreme Precipitation Events over South China in Recent 40 Years

Based on the hourly precipitation data at 176 observational stations over south China and the hourly ERA5reanalysis data during the 40-yr period of 1981-2020, we analyzed the universal characteristics of moisture transport and their associated background circulations for four types of regional extreme precipitation events(REPEs) over south China. Main findings are shown as follow.(i) The wind that transported moisture for the REPEs over south China featured a notable diurnal variation, which was consistent with the variations of the precipitation.(ii) Four types of REPEs could be determined, among which the southwest type(SWT) and the southeast type(SET) accounted for ~92%and ~5.7%, respectively, ranking the first and second, respectively.(iii) Trajectory analyses showed that the air particles of the SWT-REPEs had the largest specific humidity and experienced the most intense ascending motion, and therefore their precipitation was the strongest among the four types.(iv) South China was dominated by notable moisture flux convergence for the four types of REPEs, but their moisture transport was controlled by different flow paths.(v)Composite analyses indicated that the background circulation of the four types of REPEs showed different features,particularly for the intensity, location and coverage of a western Pacific subtropical high. For the SWT-REPEs, their moisture transport was mainly driven by a lower-tropospheric strong southwesterly wind band in the low-latitude regions. Air particles for this type of REPEs mainly passed over the Indochina Peninsula and South China Sea. For the SET-REPEs, their moisture transport was mainly steered by a strong low-tropospheric southeasterly wind northeast of a transversal trough. Air particles mainly passed over the South China Sea for this type of REPEs.

Water Resources and Water Services Infrastructure and Its Vulnerability to Extreme Events—The Case of Jordan

This study discussed the water sector as a critical infrastructural element in Jordan where the sector is exposed to the extreme events. The exposure of the country to extreme events has initiated this study. Such events are Pollution accidents, flooding, draughts, overexploitation, failure in electricity supply, climate changes, earthquakes, landslides, failure of dams, failure of wastewater treatment plants, failure of desalination plants, sabotage, fire, water theft, migration and demographic changes (immigration and urban migration), relations to neighboring countries, epidemics, and others. These extreme events are discussed in this article and the results show that failures in the water infrastructure and water supply, in Jordan, with its water sector situation have rigorous percussions on the country’s health, food supply, economy, societal stability, the built environment, and on other water-related issues. The study concludes that developing national programs to protect the water infrastructure in the water-fragile country has become very crucial to reach a robust and resilient water sector which not only means providing the inhabitants with quantitatively sufficient and qualitatively healthy water but also aims to incorporate guaranteeing social, economic and political stability.

Extreme value theory applied to the auroral electrojet indices

The study of extreme weather and space events has gained paramount importance in modern society owing to rapid advances in high technology.Understanding and describing exceptional occurrences plays a crucial role in making decisive assessments of their potential impact on technical,economic,and social aspects in various fields.This research focuses on analyzing the hourly values of the auroral electrojet(AE)geomagnetic index from 1957 to 2019 by using the peak over threshold method in extreme value theory.By fitting the generalized Pareto distribution to extreme AE values,shape parameter indices were derived,revealing negative values that establish an upper bound for this time series.Consequently,it became evident that the AE values had reached a plateau,suggesting that extreme events exceeding the established upper limit are rare.As a result,although the need for diligent precautions to mitigate the consequences of such extreme events persists,surpassing the upper limit of AE values becomes increasingly challenging.It is also possible to observe an aurora in the middle-and low-latitude regions during the maximum period of the AE index.

Visibility graph approach to extreme event series

An extreme event may lead to serious disaster to a complex system.In an extreme event series there exist generally non-trivial patterns covering different time scales.Investigations on extreme events are currently based upon statistics,where the patterns are merged into averages.In this paper from extreme event series we constructed extreme value series and extreme interval series.And the visibility graph is then adopted to display the patterns formed by the increases/decreases of extreme value or interval faster/slower than the linear ones.For the fractional Brownian motions,the properties for the constructed networks are the persistence,threshold,and event-type-independent,e.g.,the degree distributions decay exponentially with almost identical speeds,the nodes cluster into modular structures with large and similar modularity degrees,and each specific network has a perfect hierarchical structure.For the volatilities of four stock markets(NSDQ,SZI,FTSE100,and HSI),the properties for the former three's networks are threshold-and market-independent.Comparing with the factional Brownian motions,their degree distributions decay exponentially but with slower speeds,their modularity behaviors are significant but with smaller modularity degrees.The fourth market behaves similar qualitatively but different quantitatively with the three markets.Interestingly,all the transition frequency networks share an identical backbone composed of nine edges and the linked graphlets.The universal behaviors give us a framework to describe extreme events from the viewpoint of network.

Influence of the Arctic on the Predictability of Eurasian Winter Extreme Weather Events

The linkage between the Arctic and midlatitudes has received much attention recently due to the rapidly changing climate.Many investigations have been conducted to reveal the relationship between the Arctic and Eurasian extreme events from the perspective of climatological statistics.As a prediction source for extreme events in Eurasia,Arctic conditions are crucial for extreme event predictions.Therefore,it is urgent to explore the Arctic influence on the predictability of Eurasian extreme events due to the large uncertainties in Arctic conditions.Considering the sensitivity and nonlinearity of the atmospheric circulations in midlatitude to Arctic conditions,it is necessary to investigate the Arctic influences on Eurasian extreme weather events in case studies at weather time scales.Previous studies indicate that only perturbations in specific patterns have fast growth.Thus,the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation approach is recommended for exploring the uncertainties in Arctic initial and boundary conditions and their synergistic effect on Eurasian extreme events.Moreover,the mechanism for extreme event formation may differ in different cases.Therefore,more extreme cases should be investigated to reach robust conclusions.

What determines irrigation efficiency when farmers face extreme weather events? A field survey of the major wheat producing regions in China

Water availability is a major constraint on grain production in China, therefore, improving irrigation efficiency is particularly important when agriculture faces extreme weather events. This paper first calculates irrigation efficiency with a translog stochastic frontier production function and then investigates what happens when extreme weather events occur via a Tobit model. The estimated results reveal several important features of irrigation practices: i) irrigation efficiency is lower when extreme weather events occur; ii) large variations in irrigation efficiency occur across irrigation facilities; iii) the farm plots exhibit an extreme distribution across efficiency levels; and iv) water-saving techniques, technology adoption, and the maintenance of farmers' economic resilience are major determinants of irrigation efficiency. Based on these results we propose the following recommendations: i) farmers should balance crop yield and water use; undertake relevant training programs and adopt water-saving techniques; ii) local governments and researchers should help farmers to find the optimal level of irrigation water use based on their own circumstances and provide better water-saving techniques and training programs rather than simply encouraging farmers to invest in irrigation facilities in the most extreme weather years; and iii) the income level of farm households should be increased so as to improve their resilience to natural disasters.

Moisture sources of extreme summer precipitation events in North Xinjiang and their relationship with atmospheric circul

In this study, the daily observational precipitation data and NCEP reanalysis data during 1951e2014, Euler and Lagrangian method were used to investigate the moisture sources of summer extreme precipitation events in North Xinjiang. The results show that water vapor at low and upper levels of most summer heavy rain (more than 50 mm d
1 and less than 100 mm d
1) in North Xinjiang are mainly transported by westerly circulation from the North Atlantic Ocean and the Eurasian continent. However, rainstorms of more than 100 mm d
1, which are rarely observed, are dominated by vertically integrated moisture from the North Atlantic, Arctic Oceans, and the Eurasian continent, in addition to lowlevel moisture from the Indian Ocean. Among these sources, the anomalous low-level moisture from the Indian Ocean, which is closely associated with stronger meridional circulation, is considered to be more important with respect to rainstorms. On the days prior to rainstorm days, stronger meridional circulation leads to an anomalous pressure gradient force, which can transport low-level moisture from the Indian Ocean along the eastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau to North Xinjiang. Furthermore, moisture from the North Atlantic, Arctic Oceans, the Eurasian continent, and the Indian Ocean converge together to influence rainstorm development in this region.

Changes in extreme temperature events over the Hindu Kush Himalaya during 1961e2015

This study uses the CMA (China Meteorological Administration) global land-surface daily air temperature dataset V1.0 (GLSATD V1.0) to analyze long-term changes in extreme temperature events over the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) during 1961e2015. Results show there was a significant decrease in the number of extreme cold events (cold nights, cold days, and frost days) but a significant increase in the number of extreme warm events (warm nights, warm days, and summer days) over the entire HKH during 1961e2015. For percentile-based indices, trends of extreme events related to minimum temperature (Tmin) were greater in magnitude than those related to maximum temperature (Tmax). For absolute-value based indices, maximum Tmax, minimum Tmin, and summer days all show increasing trends, while frost days and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) show significant decreasing trends. In addition, there was a decrease in extreme cold events in most parts of east HKH, particularly in Southwest China and the Tibetan Plateau, while there was a general increase in extreme warm events over the entire HKH. Finally, the change in extreme cold events in the HKH appears to be more sensitive to elevation (with cold nights and cold days decreasing with elevation), whereas the change in warm extremes (warm nights, warm days, and maximum Tmax) shows no detectable relationship with elevation. Frost days and minimum Tmin also have a good relationship with elevation, and the trend in frost days decreases with an increase in elevation while the trend in minimum Tmin increases with an increase in elevation.

Changes of Extreme Events in Regional Climate Simulations over East Asia

使用ResCM2区域气候模式,嵌套澳大利亚CSIRO R21L9全球海气耦合模式,进行了温室效应（二氧化碳加倍）对东亚（主要是中国区域）极端气候事件影响的数值试验。控制试验的结果表明,区域模式能够较好地模拟中国区域的极端气候事件。对温室效应引起的它们的变化进行了信度检验,分析结果表明,温室效应将引起日最高和最低气温增加,日较差减小;使得高温天气增多,低温日数减少。降水日数和大雨日数在一些地区将增加。同时还会引起影响中国的台风活动的变化。

Extreme Cold Events from East Asia to North America in Winter 2020/21:Comparisons,Causes,and Future Implications

Three striking and impactful extreme cold weather events successively occurred across East Asia and North America during the mid-winter of 2020/21.These events open a new window to detect possible underlying physical processes.The analysis here indicates that the occurrences of the three events resulted from integrated effects of a concurrence of anomalous thermal conditions in three oceans and interactive Arctic-lower latitude atmospheric circulation processes,which were linked and influenced by one major sudden stratospheric warming(SSW).The North Atlantic warm blob initiated an increased poleward transient eddy heat flux,reducing the Barents-Kara seas sea ice over a warmed ocean and disrupting the stratospheric polar vortex(SPV)to induce the major SSW.The Rossby wave trains excited by the North Atlantic warm blob and the tropical Pacific La Nina interacted with the Arctic tropospheric circulation anomalies or the tropospheric polar vortex to provide dynamic settings,steering cold polar air outbreaks.The long memory of the retreated sea ice with the underlying warm ocean and the amplified tropospheric blocking highs from the midlatitudes to the Arctic intermittently fueled the increased transient eddy heat flux to sustain the SSW over a long time period.The displaced or split SPV centers associated with the SSW played crucial roles in substantially intensifying the tropospheric circulation anomalies and moving the jet stream to the far south to cause cold air outbreaks to a rarely observed extreme state.The results have significant implications for increasing prediction skill and improving policy decision making to enhance resilience in“One Health,One Future”.

Trend of extreme precipitation events over China in last 40 years

Using the daily precipitation data of 740 stations in China from 1960 to 2000,the analysis on the variations and distributions of the frequency and the percentage of extreme precipitation to the annual rainfall have been performed in this paper.Results indicate that the percentage of heavy rains(above 25mm/day) in the annual rainfall has increased,while on average the day number of heavy rains has slightly reduced during the past 40 years.In the end of 1970s and the beginning of 1980s,both the number of days with extreme precipitation and the percentage of extreme precipitation abruptly changed over China,especially in the northern China.By moving t test,the abrupt change year of extreme precipitation for each station and its spatial distribution over the whole country are also obtained.The abrupt change years concentrated in 1978-1982 for most regions of northern China while occurred at various stations in southern China in greatly different/diverse years.Besides the abrupt change years of extreme precipitation at part stations of Northwest China happened about 5 years later in comparison with that of the country's average.

Changes in extreme precipitation events over the Hindu Kush Himalayan region during 1961e2012

Based on a new multi-source dataset (GLDP-V1.0) recently developed in China Meteorological Administration, we employed precipitation indices including percentile-based indices of light (below the 50th percentile), moderate (between the 50th and 90th percentile), and intense (above the 90th percentile) precipitation, maximum 1-day, 3-day, and 5-day precipitation amounts (RX1DAY, RX3DAY, and RX5DAY, respectively), and consecutive wet and dry days (CWDs and CDDs) to analyze variations in extreme precipitation events in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) during 1961e2012. The main results are presented as follows. Firstly, there was a significant increase in the amount of light and moderate precipitation and number of associated days over various parts of India and northern Tibetan Plateau during 1961e2012; but the intensity of light precipitation decreased significantly in the Hindu Kush and central India, and the regional average intensity also decreased. Secondly, the amount and frequency of intense precipitation mostly increased significantly on the Tibetan Plateau, but there was a heterogeneous change over the remainder of the HKH, and regional average annual intense precipitation amount and frequency significantly increased over the HKH during 1961e2012. Thirdly, regional average RX1DAY, RX3DAY, and RX5DAYall showed significant upward trends during 1961e2012, and there was a significant increased tendency of consecutive wet-days in most parts of the study region; however, trends of consecutive dry-days were mostly opposite to those of consecutive wet-days, with regional averaged consecutive dry-days showing no noticeable trend.

The Nature and Predictability of the East Asian Extreme Cold Events of 2020/21

Three extreme cold events invaded China during the early winter period between December 2020 to mid-January 2021 and caused drastic temperature drops,setting new low-temperature records at many stations during 6−8 January 2021.These cold events occurred under background conditions of low Arctic sea ice extent and a La Niña event.This is somewhat expected since the coupled effect of large Arctic sea ice loss in autumn and sea surface temperature cooling in the tropical Pacific usually favors cold event occurrences in Eurasia.Further diagnosis reveals that the first cold event is related to the southward movement of the polar vortex and the second one is related to a continent-wide ridge,while both the southward polar vortex and the Asian blocking are crucial for the third event.Here,we evaluate the forecast skill for these three events utilizing the operational forecasts from the ECMWF model.We find that the third event had the highest predictability since it achieves the best skill in forecasting the East Asian cooling among the three events.Therefore,the predictability of these cold events,as well as their relationships with the atmospheric initial conditions,Arctic sea ice,and La Niña deserve further investigation.

Amplitude modulation and extreme events in turbulent channel flow

Amplitude modulation of near-wall turbulence by large-scale structures in the outer layer is investigated by direct numerical simulation of turbulent channel flows at Reynolds number Re_τ = 540, 1000, 2000. The effect of modulation is obvious in the two-point cross-section correlation map, and the correlation coefficients increase significantly with the Reynolds number. The influence of modulation is reflected in the tail of the probability density function of the near-wall flow signals, which expands as the Reynolds number increases. The flatness factor provides a quantitative description of the high fluctuation events due to modulation. Vortical structures associated with modulation are revealed by conditionally averaging the flow field of the near-wall extreme events, providing a depiction of how the influence of the large-scale structures penetrate towards the near-wall region.