A New model to forecast fishing ground of Scomber japonicus in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

The pelagic species is closely related to the marine environmental factors, and establishment of forecasting model of fishing ground with high accuracy is an important content for pelagic fishery. The chub mackerel（Scomber japonicus） in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea is an important fishing target for Chinese lighting purse seine fishery. Based on the fishery data from China＇s mainland large-type lighting purse seine fishery for chub mackerel during the period of 2003 to 2010 and the environmental data including sea surface temperature（SST）, gradient of the sea surface temperature（GSST）, sea surface height（SSH） and geostrophic velocity（GV）, we attempt to establish one new forecasting model of fishing ground based on boosted regression trees. In this study, the fishing areas with fishing effort is considered as one fishing ground, and the areas with no fishing ground are randomly selected from a background field, in which the fishing areas have no records in the logbooks. The performance of the forecasting model of fishing ground is evaluated with the testing data from the actual fishing data in 2011. The results show that the forecasting model of fishing ground has a high prediction performance, and the area under receiver operating curve（AUC） attains 0.897. The predicted fishing grounds are coincided with the actual fishing locations in 2011, and the movement route is also the same as the shift of fishing vessels, which indicates that this forecasting model based on the boosted regression trees can be used to effectively forecast the fishing ground of chub mackerel in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea.

Estimation model of winter wheat disease based on meteorological factors and spectral information

Wheat scab(WS,Fusarium head blight),one of the most severe diseases of winter wheat in Yangtze-Huaihe river region,whose monitoring and timely forecasting at large scale would help to optimize pesticide spraying and achieve the purpose of reducing yield loss.In the present study,remote sensing monitoring on WS was conducted in 4 counties in Yangtze-Huaihe river region.Sensitive factors of WS were selected to establish the remote sensing estimation model of winter wheat scab index(WSI)based on interactions between spectral information and meteorological factors.The results showed that:1)Correlations between the daily average temperature(DAT)and daily average relative humidity(DAH)at different time scales and WSI were significant.2)There were positive linear correlations between winter wheat biomass,leaf area index(LAI),leaf chlorophyll content(LCC)and WSI.3)NDVI(normalized difference vegetation index),RVI(ratio vegetation index)and DVI(difference vegetation index)which had a good correlation with LAI,biomass and LCC,respectively,and could be used to replace them in modeling.4)The estimated values of the model were consistent with the measured values(RMSE=5.3%,estimation accuracy=90.46%).Estimation results showed that the model could efficiently estimate WS in Yangtze-Huaihe river region.