Uncertainties of landslide susceptibility prediction considering different landslide types

Most literature related to landslide susceptibility prediction only considers a single type of landslide,such as colluvial landslide,rock fall or debris flow,rather than different landslide types,which greatly affects susceptibility prediction performance.To construct efficient susceptibility prediction considering different landslide types,Huichang County in China is taken as example.Firstly,105 rock falls,350 colluvial landslides and 11 related environmental factors are identified.Then four machine learning models,namely logistic regression,multi-layer perception,support vector machine and C5.0 decision tree are applied for susceptibility modeling of rock fall and colluvial landslide.Thirdly,three different landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP)models considering landslide types based on C5.0 decision tree with excellent performance are constructed to generate final landslide susceptibility:(i)united method,which combines all landslide types directly;(ii)probability statistical method,which couples analyses of susceptibility indices under different landslide types based on probability formula;and(iii)maximum comparison method,which selects the maximum susceptibility index through comparing the predicted susceptibility indices under different types of landslides.Finally,uncertainties of landslide susceptibility are assessed by prediction accuracy,mean value and standard deviation.It is concluded that LSP results of the three coupled models considering landslide types basically conform to the spatial occurrence patterns of landslides in Huichang County.The united method has the best susceptibility prediction performance,followed by the probability method and maximum susceptibility method.More cases are needed to verify this result in-depth.LSP considering different landslide types is superior to that taking only a single type of landslide into account.

The Volume Calculation Method of Rock Collapses and Loess Landslides Triggered by the 1556 AD Huaxian M81/2 Earthquake in Shaanxi Province, China

Accurate volume calculation of each individual landslide triggered by strong historical earthquakes can help understand the characteristics of the typical earthquake-induced landslides,thus providing significant information for the modification of the focal parameters of historical earthquakes.In this study,we select one rock fall and three loess landslides triggered by the 1556 AD Huaxian M8⅟􀄟earthquake,compute their volumes using the low-altitude high-precision Unmanned Aerial Vehicle(UAV)photogrammetry and landslide profile restoration methods.The results show that:①the whole influencing area of the Huangjiagou Rock Fall is approximately 3.03×105 m2 and the area of the collapsed rock accumulated at the slope foot is 3.33×104 m2,accounting for approximately 10%of the entire influencing range.However,the estimated volume of the collapsed rock is only 0.699×106 m3,indicating a rock fall with large influencing range but limited collapsed rock;②the geological form of thethree loess landslides are preserved intactly,with volumes of 0.283×108 m3,0.074×108 m3,and 0.377×108 m3.These important geological hazard relics reflect the strong vibrations and severe casualties in the meizoseismal area;③loess landslides are the key reason of the serious death toll in the hilly-gully loess area.Our new method can be used to estimate the influencing area and the actual volume of each individual landslide,and rationally evaluate the role of earthquake landslides in the disaster.In addition,quantitative research on secondary disasters triggered by strong historical earthquakes is beneficial for understanding the surface process and focal parameters of the earthquakes.

Paleoearthquake Investigation along the Chenghai Fault Zone since~500 ka,Southeast Margin of the Tibetan Plateau

The Chenghai fault zone is located in the Sichuan–Yunnan rhombus block,which is surrounded by the Honghe River,Xianshuihe–Xiaojiang,and Jinsha River fault zones.As a mid-continental active fault,it is one of the most important seismogenic fractures in the southeast margin of the Tibetan Plateau.Geological seismic study is an important supplement to the historical seismic record;therefore,identification of paleoearthquake events in this region is of great significance to reveal the pattern and mechanism of earthquake development.In this study,detailed investigation has been carried out on the earthquake traces that formed in the Quaternary sediments in the Jinsha River section of the Chenghai fault zone,and samples for dating chronology testing were also collected.Many paleoearthquake traces were discovered in the field,including earthquake fissions,dammed lake sediments and landslides,earthquake-generated rock falls,seismic faults,and sand liquefaction veins.The collected samples were tested using optically stimulated luminescence,electron-spin resonance,and U-series methods.A total of 68 chronological samples were dated,combined with the results of field investigations,and 10 large paleoearthquake events were discovered in this region since 500 ka,which are at approximately 450,400,345,300,250,190,155,105,75,and 25 ka.Ten tectonic activity periods that produced multiple paleoearthquake events were identified since 500 ka.This study identifies paleoearthquake events in longer scales,larger spaces,and more extensive sediments,which provides new perspectives and new ideas for paleoearthquake research.

Experimental Field Study of Movement Charateristics of Rock Blocks Falling down a Slope

The downslope movement of detached rock blocks along steep slopes is an important process endangering the safety of infrastructure along the foot of a slope and on the valley bottom,but only limited knowledge is available on the influence of various factors on the velocity and distance of movement of such blocks.We discuss the influence of the mass and shape of the rock blocks,the steepness of the slope,and the thickness of the overburden on the slope,on the distance of movement of rock blocks which was observed in 256 field experiments with differently shaped blocks from 3 different positions on the slope with a height of 176 m.The statistical evaluation of the results of the field tests shows that the slope condition of gradient and overburden is the main factor,the form of rock masses is the second factor,and the mass is the third of the influencing factors.It is the maximum average acceleration for movement of rock masses when the mass of rock masses is 15≤m27 kg,the form of rock masses is flake,the condition of gradient is on average 59.6° and the overburden is basic exposed bedrock and a small quantity of gravel-soil in the experiment condition.It is the minimum average acceleration for movement of rock masses when the mass of rock masses is 9.5≤m15 kg,the form of rock masses is rectangular,the condition of gradient is on average 39° and the overburden is gravel-soil and cinder.Then,the foundation for impact energy is provided and the new feasible methods to prevent potential unstable rock masses are put forward.