How China's Grain-for-Green Project Contributes to Farmers' Income Growth

Initially intended to prevent water and soil erosion, China＇s Grain-for-Green Project （GGP） also has had economic impacts on farmers＇incorne and employment. Based on the poverty monitoring survey data between 2006-2010 from National Bureau of Statistics （NBS）, this paper evaluates the GGP＇s policy effects with respect to farmers＇ income, non-agricultural employment and poverty alleviation. Our findings suggest that contributing to the GGP, farmers＇ income including GGP subsidies increased significantly compared with the pre-GGP level,＂ however, if GGP subsidies are not taken into account, the increase in farmers＇non-agricultural income after the GGP could only compensate.for the income losses from farmland reduction, showing an insignificant effect. Second, there exist significant differences on employment tendency among GGP households. High-income households tend to engage in operation business in forestry, livestock and fishery activities, while medium-income families are more inclined to seek employment outside, and the differences attribute to the inter-group intrinsic characteristics. Lastly, the GGP＇s poverty alleviation effect varies with the difference in poverty standard. Overall the GGP＇s poverty alleviation effect is significant.

The Influence of Urbanization Development on Farmers' Income Growth in Wuhan City

Over the past three decades,with the development of urbanization in Wuhan,farmers' income has been substantially increased in Wuhan City,and urbanization has played an important role in farmers' income growth. By the empirical analysis of the data related to the level of urbanization development and farmers' income in Wuhan City during 1993- 2013,this paper finds that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between urbanization development and farmers' income growth in Wuhan City,and urbanization development has become an important driving force for farmers' income growth. Finally,this paper puts forth some policy recommendations for promoting farmers' income by urbanization development in Wuhan City on the basis of empirical analysis.

Income Growth,Income Gaps,and Rural Poverty Reduction in China

This paper analyzes the evolving trends in China’s rural poverty from 1988 to 2018 and how income growth and income gaps contributed to poverty reduction using rural household data from the China Household Income Project(CHIP).We find that after China’s reform and opening up policy introduced in 1978,China’s rural poverty has been reduced substantially due primarily to income growth,although this poverty-reducing effect was partially offset by widening income gaps.During the progress of this poverty reduction,however,income distribution replaced income growth as the key driver.For the extremely poor in particular,their poverty status hinged upon income distribution.As revealed by our empirical analysis of income sources,wage income became the chief source of income for rural households,contributing a rising share to poverty reduction in the countryside.The contribution of net income from government transfer to poverty reduction has increased in recent years,and this contribution has been increased with the deepening level of poverty.Calculation of the pro-poor growth index suggests that the poor population primarily benefited from the trickle-down effect of economic growth,and the economic growth pattern has yet to lean towards pro-poor growth.

The Evolutive Law concerning Relationship between Economic Growth and Farmers' Income Increase in Xinjiang since the Reform and Opening-up:An Empirical Analysis of the VEC Model

We select the per capita gross domestic product and rural residents' per capita net income in Xinjiang as the indicator variables to measure economic growth and farmers' income increase in Xinjiang, respectively. We establish the cointegration equation, the vector error correction (VEC) model, and use the impulse response function to conduct empirical analysis of the evolutive law concerning relationship between economic growth and farmers' income increase in Xinjiang during the period 1978-2010. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between economic growth in Xinjiang and farmers' income increase; the former plays an important role in promoting the latter, following the evolutive law "first intensify, then abate, intensify again, and finally become stable". We put the following policy recommendations: providing preferential policies for farmers, scientifically and rationally guiding the transfer of rural labor; improving the function of agriculture, increasing the proportion of non-farm income; gradually bridging the widening income gap between urban and rural areas, coordinating urban and rural development.

How to Increase the Farmers' Income in Rongchang County?

The farmers' income growth in Rongchang County is mainly from the family business and wage income,accounting for 55. 4% and37. 9%,respectively; the growth rate of rural per capita net income increased from 12. 4% in 2005 to 17. 6% in 2010,close to or higher than Chongqing's average but lower than the level of adjacent districts and counties such as Yongchuan; the absolute value of net income in Rongchang increased from 3426 yuan to 6755 yuan,less than in other districts and counties similar to Yongchuan in Chongqing,far less than in the other three municipalities( up to 6991 yuan). The slow farmers' income growth is affected by multiple factors such as overall low quality of the rural labor force,county industrial structure and difficulties in transferring a large number of rural surplus labor forces. It is necessary to improve the quality of farmers,strive to adjust the agricultural structure,and develop rural cooperative economic organizations,in order to increase farmers' income.

Empirical Research on the Relations between Farmers' Income Increase and Economic Development in Henan Province

According to data of per capita net income of rural households and the per capita regional gross output from 1978 to 2008 provided by the Henan Statistical Yearbook, we know that both of the time series obey the unit root process, so they belong to non-stationary time series. The results of the Engle-Granger two-stage estimation method show that the two terms have long-term stable integration equilibrium relations. The results of Granger Causality Test show that there is only the one way Granger Causality relation from farmers' income increase to economic growth. Connecting with the reality of Henan Province, the possible reasons are analyzed. The population of rural residents is huge and the income level of the rural residents are low, and the marginal consumption tendency is bigger than urban and township residents, so the increase of farmers' income will promote economic growth. Notably, the income increase of farmers is even more helpful to expand domestic demand. Since 1978, the consumption level and structure of farmers in Henan Province is increasing gradually and the role played by of farmers' income increase in stimulating economic growth is increasing. Besides, the urban-rural double system which serves for economic development strategy is the historic root for the expanding gap of urban and rural income. In addition, the economic policy which gives priority to cities is the system root for the expanding gap of rural and urban income.

The ＂Middle Income Trap＂ in Economic Growth in Different Economies

Nowadays, more than 50% of the world population live in middle-income economies. Economies in the middle-income development stage are confronted with a number of challenges, such as economic restructuring, industrial upgrade and income growth. Therefore, academia around the worm have paid much attention to theoretical and empirical researches of the ＂middle income trap＂ and long-term trends of global economic growth. Based on analyses about the long-term growth path of the world economy and the characteristics of different stages of economic development, this paper defines the＂middle income trap＂ and its characteristics and examines, through a large number of cases from different economies, the reasons why ＂growth slowdown＂ arises during the middle-income development stage. These theoretic and empirical researches have reference value and heuristic meaning for China to actively respond to the challenges of the ＂middle income trap＂.

喀斯特地区土地流转如何促进农户增收?——基于8省3678户的经验证据

充分发挥喀斯特地区土地流转的农户增收效应是推进山地农业高质量发展的有效渠道。基于中国喀斯特地区8个省区市3 678户农户微观调研数据,采用有序Logit模型、倾向得分匹配法、KHB方法等,考察土地流转对农户收入的影响和作用机制。结果表明:(1)土地流转显著提升了喀斯特地区农户家庭总收入水平,土地流转户收入水平较未参与流转户约高出12.86%;(2)相比于土地转入户,土地转出对农户收入增长的影响更为显著;(3)外出务工和家庭创业在土地转出影响农户收入关系中起中介作用,解释比例分别为17.18%和4.63%;农业机械化在耕地较为平整的转入户对收入的影响中起中介作用,解释比例为16.93%;(4)土地流转对种植经济作物、耕地较为平整、灌溉条件较好的农户家庭总收入影响显著为正。为此,建议进一步健全喀斯特地区土地流转机制,促进非农产业发展,加强丘陵山区农业机械化和农田水利设施建设,发展喀斯特地区特色高效农业,鼓励更多农户积极参与土地流转。

环境质量视角下收入差距对经济增长的影响研究——基于环境质量中介与门槛效应的实证分析

缩小收入差距,提升环境质量,实现经济可持续增长是推动我国新时期高质量发展的本质要求。基于2009—2020年中国30个省份的面板数据,运用动态面板模型、中介效应模型、动态门限面板模型实证研究了收入差距对经济增长的影响,以及环境质量在二者关系中所发挥的中介效应与门槛效应。研究结果表明:收入差距的扩大对经济增长有明显的抑制作用;环境质量在收入差距影响经济增长的过程中起到了部分中介作用与单重门槛效应,随着环境质量改善收入差距对经济增长呈现先促进后抑制的特征。政府应当积极通过缩小收入差距,优化环境质量与收入差距的匹配模式来促进经济增长,实现中国经济的可持续发展。

我国宏观收入分配结构测算及对经济增长的影响研究——基于新中国成立以来长序列数据的实证

本文利用资金流量表、住户收支调查、财政收支等数据,采用拟合法对1952年以来我国宏观收入分配结构进行系统测算,深入分析新中国成立至今我国宏观收入分配结构的发展变化,并以住户部门收入份额和劳动者报酬占比为主要指标,对比分析我国宏观收入分配结构与发达经济体的差异。基于数据测算和分析,进一步使用1953—2022年的时间序列数据构建多元线性回归模型和滚动回归模型,实证检验收入分配相关指标对消费及经济增长的影响。研究结果显示,第一,新中国成立以来我国住户部门收入份额总体呈现波动下降态势,2008年国际金融危机之后逐步有所回升,住户部门收入份额平均高于劳动者报酬占国内生产总值(GDP)的比重20个百分点左右。第二,与美国、欧洲、日本等经济体进行同期对比显示,我国住户部门收入份额低约20个百分点,从相似发展阶段对比看也低10个百分点左右;住户部门收入份额差距大于我国劳动者报酬占比与发达经济体的差距,表明我国住户部门收入份额偏低与再分配的调节作用不足有关。第三,实证研究显示,投资、消费和出口都是我国经济增长的重要动力;提高住户部门收入份额对消费的促进作用大于对资本形成的抑制作用,有助于带动经济增长,但从其作用效果的发展变化看,提高住户部门收入份额对消费的提振作用有边际递减趋势。

乡村产业振兴的农民农村共同富裕效应

实现农民农村共同富裕面临着农民增收渠道少和持续性差等现实问题,以及城乡收入差距、区域收入差距和农村内部收入差距三大挑战,乡村产业振兴为解决这些问题提供了新思路。使用2011—2020年中国30个省份的面板数据,采用FGLS和PCSE回归方法实证检验了乡村产业振兴对农民农村共同富裕的影响。研究结果表明,加快乡村产业振兴有助于实现农民可支配收入增长和农民三大收入差距缩小兼得的共同富裕效应,这一结论在经过内生性和稳健性检验后依然成立。进一步研究发现,乡村产业振兴对农民工资性收入和经营净收入的促进作用明显大于对转移性收入和财产性收入的促进作用,对缩小城乡收入差距的作用大于对缩小区域收入差距和农村内部收入差距的作用。异质性分析发现,在乡村产业振兴高水平地区,乡村产业振兴可以促进农民可支配收入增长和缩小三大收入差距,即可实现富裕效应和共同效应;在乡村产业振兴低水平地区,乡村产业振兴仅对农民可支配收入增长和城乡收入差距产生显著影响。

收入增长与相对贫困治理——一种新的相对贫困变动测度模型及应用

本文构建一种新的相对贫困变动测度指数(Measurement Index of Relative Poverty Change,简称RPC指数)来测度一段时期内相对贫困的变动。为分析收入增长对相对贫困的减贫效果,本文进一步构建RPC指数的分解模型,既可测度相对贫困群体及社会总体分项收入增长对相对贫困变动的影响和贡献,也可测度样本分组内部相对贫困变动及其对总体相对贫困变动的贡献。基于RPC指数及其分解模型,本文采用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014年至2020年4期家庭人均收入面板数据,分析我国城乡居民收入增长对相对贫困变动的影响。研究发现,社会整体收入增长不具有自动消减相对贫困的作用;相较于中位数收入,以平均收入为基数制定相对贫困线能更敏锐地反映居民收入增长分布的合理性;城乡居民分项收入的增长对相对贫困变动的影响不尽相同,在治理相对贫困时需予以不同的考量。

我国中等收入群体的成长机制及其区域差异

二十大报告指出:“中国式现代化是全体人民共同富裕的现代化。”扩大中等收入群体是实现全体人民共同富裕的重要途径。本文首先在理论上从需求侧和供给侧两端建构了推动中等收入群体成长的机制框架,接着使用CGSS2010—2021年调查数据,对不同地区中等收入群体的成长过程与成长机制进行了系统分析。研究发现,在不同地区,中等收入群体的整体成长以及中等收入群体内部结构变化都不一样;经济发展未必一定推动中等收入群体的成长,收入再分配政策与经济结构升级也发挥着重要作用。本文强调,要想有效扩大中等收入群体,必须加强有关具体政策效果的实证分析。

社会养老保险对农村包容性增长的影响——基于收入流动性的视角

使用CFPS 2010—2018年5期数据,考察农户参与新农保后收入增长的差异及其作用机制。研究发现:农户在期初参与新农保会显著提高其收入增长率,这主要是由于缴纳保险费用后农户预期养老风险的降低,会提高家庭的农业生产投入,促进经营性收入增长。并且,对不同收入水平农户的异质性分析表明,新农保对较低收入家庭收入增长促进效果更大,有利于农村包容性增长。因此,应当不断提高农村家庭应对养老风险的能力,将健全社会养老保险体系作为巩固和拓展脱贫攻坚成果、促进包容性增长、实现共同富裕的重要抓手。

合约安排与小农户增收——对“小农户+合作社”体系中三种典型利益联结模式的考察

既有研究独立探讨了小农户与合作社之间多种利益联结模式的各自增收效果,但对于什么样的利益联结模式能够更好地促进小农户增收尚无定论。为此,本文构建了一个集消费与生产于一体的农户模型以分析合约安排与小农户增收的因果关系,并基于CLES(2020—2022年)数据对三种典型利益联结模式的增收效果展开实证检验和比较研究。研究表明:第一,合约安排与小农户增收存在正向因果关系,增收效果从低到高依次为“租地+雇工”模式、合同农业模式和股份合作模式。这一结论在考虑遗漏变量估计偏误、内生性检验、替换样本等一系列稳健性检验之后依然成立。第二,小农户依托合约安排通过土地转出和劳动时间再配置(“租地+雇工”模式)、产品溢价(合同农业模式),以及提升产业价值份额(股份合作模式)等路径实现有效增收。本文研究有效识别了小农户与合作社合约安排的三种典型利益联结模式的增收差异及其作用机制,为实现小农户和现代农业发展有机衔接提供了倾向性增收模式与实现路径的理论支撑。

教育不平等对居民主观幸福感的影响——基于中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS)的实证研究

在促进教育公平和改善民生福祉的双重背景下,探讨在经济高质量发展阶段,如何通过促进教育公平来进一步提高国民幸福感具有重大的理论和现实意义。使用教育基尼系数测算了各地区的教育不平等指数,并将其与中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS)匹配,考察了教育不平等与居民主观幸福感的关系。研究发现,教育不平等与居民幸福感显著负相关且具有异质性,即教育不平等对受教育水平较低群体、农村地区以及中西部地区的居民主观幸福感负向影响更大。机制分析验证了教育不平等的收入分配效应和经济增长效应,尽管教育不平等会通过扩大收入差距进而降低居民幸福感,但适当的教育不平等也可以促进经济增长,从而提高居民幸福感。

基于宏观视角的灵活就业助推居民收入增长研究

收入是扩大消费的基础,在当前我国面临有效需求不足压力的情况下,有效增加居民收入是激发有潜能消费的关键。从宏观视角全面分析灵活就业对居民收入的影响,以弥补已有文献从微观视角分析的理论局限性。灵活就业是与数字经济发展相适应的新就业形态,因而数字经济的信息获取便利性和赋能机制为增加居民收入提供了新的可能,主要表现为就业的创造效应和收入提升效应。基于2006-2020年省级面板数据,实证检验了灵活就业对居民收入的影响及其内在机制。进一步的政策调节效应和区域异质性分析表明,地方政府出台有关促进灵活就业发展的相关政策能够有效增强灵活就业对居民收入的提升作用,而且东部地区灵活就业对居民收入的提升作用较为显著。针对灵活就业发展中存在的主要问题,提出要在规范中大力发展灵活就业等新就业形态,起到助推我国数字经济发展和居民收入增长“一石两鸟”作用。

跨境资本流动与东道国收入分配——来自跨国面板数据的经验证据

本文基于57个经济体1990-2019年的跨国面板数据,实证检验了各种类型的跨境资本流动对东道国收入分配的影响。研究结果显示:第一,整体而言,FDI改善了东道国的收入分配,证券投资与其他投资对收入分配的影响并不显著;第二,FDI对收入分配的改善作用在发达程度较高、金融市场更完善的经济体以及2008年金融危机发生后更为显著;最后,资本账户开放程度的提高有利于促进FDI对东道国收入分配的改善。根据上述结论,本文为如何更好地利用跨境资本流动来改善中国的收入分配提出了政策建议。

促进农村低收入人口稳定增收机制优化:逻辑建构与实证分析

全面建设社会主义现代化国家,实现全体人民共同富裕,最艰巨最繁重的任务仍然在农村,最大的短板仍然是低收入人口。历史分析农村居民收入变化及低收入人口阶段性特征,基于村域视角,依据内源发展理论和可行能力理论,建构促进农村低收入人口稳定增收的“村域空间融合、经济要素整合和政策支持聚合”逻辑分析框架,选取江西农村980户低收入人口调查数据,实证分析促进农村低收入人口稳定增收的具体驱动因素、作用机制及异质性特征,并从注重区际联合和资源整合、推动经济要素高效配置和强化支持政策有效供给等方面给出优化策略。

返乡创业质量与农民共同富裕

本文在高质量发展和共同富裕目标背景下,基于2019年和2022年返乡创业企业调查数据,实证检验了返乡创业质量对农民收入的影响及作用机制,进而回答返乡创业高质量发展对实现农民共同富裕的影响。研究发现,返乡创业质量显著提高了农民收入,返乡创业质量每提高1个标准差,农民收入增加1.111%。调节效应表明,营商环境强化了返乡创业质量对农民增收的影响,且这一效应在第三产业和中部、西部地区更强。进一步研究发现,返乡创业质量显著促进了低收入群体增收,并提高其进入中高收入群体的概率,缩小了农民内部收入差距和城乡收入差距。本文结论为全面认识返乡创业行为的影响效应提供新证据,对促进企业高质量发展和实现农民共同富裕具有政策启示。