Choice of Adaptation Strategies to Climate Variability among Smallholder Farmers in the Maize Based Cropping System in Namutumba District, Uganda

Smallholder farmers in Namutumba district draw on a combination of adaptation strategies to respond to effects of climate variability. However, there is limited scholarly evidence and explanation that has been conducted on the factors that influence the choice of alternative sets of strategies that smallholder farmers use in response to climate variability specific stress and literature that disentangles climatic stressors specific adaptation options. A multi-stage sampling procedure was employed to select the study area and household respondents. The study used cross-sectional research design to collect both quantitative and qualitative data. Household data was collected from 160 respondents with a structured questionnaire supported by key informant interviews. Multinomial logit modeling (MNL) was used to determine the relative influence of selected household socio-demographic factors on the choice of adaptation strategies against the dry spell. Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was used to create weighted adaptation index for categorizing various similar adaptation strategies. In order to respond to the impact of climate variability stresses, smallholder farmers have adapted growing drought-resistant crops (12.2%), extension of the agricultural frontier into wetlands during the dry spells (37%), whereas use of crop rotation (9.8%) is the most dominant strategies used to manage pest and diseases, similarly soil and water conservation (15.3%) and climate-smart planning basin (11%) are the most dominant adaptation strategies use to manage flood. Empirical results from multinomial logit modeling showed that predictor variables gender, level of education, years of farming, house size, access to credit, and own radio have a significant influence on the choice of adaptation strategies with differences significant level during the dry spell. The study recommends that future policies should focus on strengthening the existing extension training package, strengthening the existing farmer’s groups and cooperatives, encouraging informal social networks in order to boost smallholder farmers’ adaptation to climate variability.

The Obstacles,Paths and Mechanisms of the Sustainable Development of Farmers' Cooperatives in Hebei Province

Based on the description of the major role played by famers' cooperatives in developing rural economy and in increasing the income of farmers,the obstacles of the sustainable development of famers' cooperatives in Hebei Province are introduced.Firstly,the cooperative mechanism is imperfect;secondly,the development is substandard;thirdly,the coverage of preferential policy is limited;fourthly,the capitals and financing problem are difficult;fifthly,the operation is single;sixthly,the construction of marketing channels is the weak;seventhly,the professional talents are scarce.The sustainable development paths of famers' cooperatives in Heibei Province are analyzed.Firstly,conducting value-added processing and taking the way of materialized development,industrialized operation and enterprise-style management;secondly,implementing agricultural quality and brand strategy and moving into the high level market;thirdly,constructing modern agricultural marketing and taking the road of supermarket agriculture;fourthly,enforcing the management of information and getting efficiency from information;fifthly,developing recycling agriculture and taking the way of improving resource efficiency.There are five ways for establishing the operational mechanism of sustainable development of farmers' cooperatives in Heibei Province.The government should innovate the cooperation mechanism;innovating training and education mechanism;innovating production mechanism;innovating financial mechanism;innovating marketing mechanism.

Consumer Ideology Determines Shopping Preferences at Farmers Markets in Two US Geographical Regions

The purpose of this study was to identify if there were differences that existed in the behaviors, attitudes, awareness, and motivating factors that influenced people to shop at farmers’ markets and purchase USDA certified organic food in two geographic regions: Corvallis, Oregon and Muncie, Indiana. A survey was administered to consumers who shopped at the Minnetrista Farmers’ Market (MFM) and the Corvallis-Albany Farmers’ Market (CAFM) in the summer of 2012 to measure the shoppers’ purchasing perceptions. Specific areas of interest in this study included consumer values towards supporting local farmers and consuming USDA certified organic food. A comparison of responses between regions was analyzed. Results of the study provide insights on consumers’ purchasing attitudes and behaviors regarding USDA certified organic products, and why they chose to shop at Farmers’ Markets. Ideology was the strongest predictor for consumer purchasing behaviors. Understanding how regional differences affect food choice has implications for wellness programs and industry marketing materials.

Behavior Insights for an Incentive-Based Active Demand Management Platform

Most current Travel Demand Management(TDM)programs such as vanpooling,ridesharing,or transit focus on managing travel demand of specific groups of commuters but are limited in effectively managing demand for automobile drivers,who are unable or unwilling to participate in such programs.This paper highlights results from a pilot field study conducted in a large west coast city experiencing major traffic congestion,and documents results of the use of an incentive-based active demand management(ADM)system focusing on automobile commuters.The system,called“Metropia,”predicts future traffic conditions,applies a proprietary routing algorithm to find time-dependent shortest paths for different departure times,and,based on user request,provides automobile travelers with multiple departure times and route choices.Each of these travel choices are assigned points values,with higher points(and thus more valuable rewards)available for travelling during off-peak times and less congested routes,and lower points available for peak traffic travel times.The goal of this ADM system is to improve traffic flow and commuter travel times citywide,alleviating heavily congested areas without the use of new roadway construction by incentivizing travelers to change their travel behavior and avoid traffic congestion.The level of rewards points available to users(commuters)by the system depends on the travelers’behavioral change degree and their contributions to traffic congestion alleviation.This system was implemented in Los Angeles,Calif.,USA,as a small scale pilot field study carried out beginning April 2013 and lasting for 10 weeks.Results from this field study show the system is able to accurately predict travel time with Relative Mean Absolute Error(RMAE)as low as 15.20%.Significant travel behavior changes were observed which validate the concept of using incentives to influence people’s travel behavior.Furthermore,field study results show 20%travel time can be saved for people who changed their travel behavior.

Modelling of Active and Latent Attributes Based on Traveler Perspectives: Case of Port City of Douala

A growing stream of study stresses the relevance of subjective elements in understanding the hierarchy of preferences that underpin individual travel behavior. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of various factors on mode choice. To achieve this, a multinomial logit model (MNL) was used to analyze the relationships between mode choice and three classes of attributes;Combined Active and Latent, Active only and Latent only attributes. The data used are derived from surveys in the port city of Douala, Cameroon as a case study. Results stipulated that, the combined attributes model performed better than both active only attributes and latent only attributes models. Likewise, latent only attributes model performed better than active only attributes model. The advantage of modelling all three groups is for better selection of the most relevant attributes, and this is very relevant in understanding travel behavior of individuals and mode choice decisions.

Coherent Neuron Activity in Frontal Cortex, n. Accumbens and dorsomedial Striatum during Impulsive and Self-control Behavior in Cats

Cats placed in the situation of a choosing between a high-value time-delayed and a low-value immediate food rewards elected to wait for the preferred reward or to obtain the worse reward quickly. On the basis of the selected behavior strategy the cats were classified into three groups - self-control ones, choosing predominantly a delayed high-value food reward, impulsive, choosing predominantly an immediate low-value food reward, and ambivalent - with mixed types of reactions. The correlated firing between simultaneously recorded neurons in prefrontal cortex (PFC), n. accumbens (NAcb) and dorsomedial striatum (DMStr) during choice behavior task was studied. It was revealed that a total number of NAcb functional neuron interactions at cats showing self-control reactions exceeded that of observed at ambivalent and impulsive cats. The number of PFC and DMStr functional correlated firing at impulsive and ambivalent cats was more significant than at cats capable to self-control. Observed correlated firing between PFC and NAcb neurons (fronto-accumbal interactions) progressively increased with the shift of behavior to impulsiveness and decreased with self-control behavior. Our results demonstrate that performance of impulsive and self-control behavior alters the correlation structure of neural firing in PFC, NAcb, DMStr and suggest the key role of local PFC, NAcb, DMStr networks in realization of choice behavior.

数字技术应用对农民创业活跃度的影响机制研究

数字技术的应用为农民创业活动带来了新机遇,对于助力乡村振兴、实现农业农村现代化具有重要意义。运用2011—2022年我国31个省份的面板数据,实证分析数字技术应用对农民创业活跃度的影响及其作用机制,并进一步考察数字技术对不同地理区位的农民创业活跃度的异质性影响。研究发现:第一,整体上看,数字技术应用通过不同形式能显著促进农民创业活跃度的提升。第二,数字技术应用对农民创业活跃度作用机制检验发现,在全国整体水平层面,人力资本水平对数字技术应用与农民创业活跃度具有正向调节作用。第三,数字技术应用对农民创业活跃度的影响存在区域异质性,数字技术应用对东部地区农民创业活跃度的影响较中西部地区更显著。

现代化产业体系构建与农民农村共同富裕:影响机理与实证检验

基于2008—2021年中国31个省、市、自治区(不包含港澳台)面板数据,运用主成分分析法与优序图分析相结合的方法测算现代化产业体系构建水平,并研判现代化产业体系构建对农民农村共同富裕的影响。实证分析结果显示:现代化产业体系构建可有效赋能农民农村共同富裕。传导机制分析显示,现代化产业体系构建能够通过扩大财税规模、增加创业活动、缩小城乡数字鸿沟,赋能农民农村共同富裕。异质性检验证实,现代化产业体系构建对农民农村共同富裕的赋能作用在东部地区更为显著。空间效应分析显示,现代化产业体系构建对农民农村共同富裕具有正向空间溢出效应。针对于此,未来应构建现代乡村产业体系、激发农村创业创新活力、推动区域产业协调发展,加速推进农民农村共同富裕。

农民组织化再造的内生机制及路径优化——基于鄂南P村的调研经验

乡村振兴的前提是将农民组织起来,而农民组织化程度影响着基层治理的水平。目前农民组织化建设多依赖外部资源和制度规则的输入,但收效甚微。经过实地调研发现,农民内生型的组织化建设机制展现了更为强大的动力,在返乡能人带头下,通过仪式性活动激发了农民的共同体意识,甚至形成了内生性的规则体系。但目前内生型组织化再造仍然面临组织建设的后备人才不足、资源供给的可持续性存疑以及内生规则的有效性有待确认等问题。为优化农民组织化建设机制,进一步提高农民参与自治的积极性,在充分激活内生性动力的同时,可强化外源性资源的赋能作用,以保障农民组织化再造的长效机制。

小农户与新型农业经营主体有机衔接意愿研究--以河南省林州市为例

充分发挥新型农业经营主体对小农户引领、示范和带动作用,是破解“小农困境”、促进小农户对接现代农业有效举措。基于河南省林州市444名农户微观调查数据,运用Logistic回归模型对小农户衔接对象选择意愿和持续衔接意愿的影响因素开展实证研究。研究结果表明:农户年龄、农户受教育年限、外出务工经历、农业收入占比、农产品类型、农业技术服务、农产品品牌化程度、政策宣传等变量是影响小农户衔接对象选择意愿主要因素;外出务工经历、农业技术服务、衔接内容约定方式、机械化投入、收益满意程度等变量对小农户持续衔接意愿均具有显著正向影响。为促进小农户与新型农业经营主体更加高效衔接,应尊重小农户衔接意愿,鼓励其因地制宜、因时制宜地选择衔接对象和方式;引导小农户与新型农业经营主体在衔接过程中发挥各自优势,共同发展生产,面对市场;培育新型职业农民,创造条件鼓励小农户实现自主转型发展。

基于选择实验法的国家公园周边社区农户生态补偿偏好分析——以大熊猫国家公园为例

【目的】社区农户是国家公园建立中重要的利益相关者之一,从农户偏好视角出发研究生态补偿政策问题对于缓解国家公园建立带来的保护与社区发展利益冲突具有重要意义。【方法】基于大熊猫国家公园周边601户农户微观调查数据,运用选择实验法对农户的生态补偿偏好和受偿意愿进行分析。【结果】结果表明,农户对于生态补偿的受偿意愿较高,而对生态补偿方案选择的总体积极性不高。在生态补偿属性的最优组合方面,农户对于补偿实施年限的偏好并不高,但普遍希望可以达到更高的补偿土地比例和农药减少比例。农户最优生态补偿方案为方案实施年限1年、补偿土地比例100%和农药使用减少比例40%。【结论】农户因承担了较高的保护成本,对生态补偿政策整体态度较消极,且保护带来的损失在国家公园建设初期较明显,因此农户对补偿期限偏好不高。由于生态产品价值实现不充分,农户绿色生产转型动力不足。因此,国家公园建立必须考虑周边社区农户利益,应通过科学测度利益损失、建立补偿标准动态调整机制、打好政策“组合拳”、加快推进生态产品价值实现等措施,健全国家公园生态补偿机制。

农地确权与农户收入多样化:微观机理与实证检验

农地确权对农户收入多样化的理论与实证结果表明:农地确权总体上有利于提高农户收入多样化程度,且农地确权会提高低收入家庭收入多样化程度,而降低高收入家庭的收入多样化程度。进一步分析农地确权对农户生计选择的影响结果发现:农地确权总体上会促使农户从事非农生产活动,而降低其从事农业和畜牧业的可能性,但会随农户收入水平的不同而呈现差异化特征,即农地确权会促使低收入家庭更愿意选择农业和畜牧业生产活动,降低其从事非农就业的概率,与之相反,农地确权会提高高收入农户家庭从事非农就业的概率,而降低其从事农业和畜牧业生产的可能性。

农民认知社会资本与抑郁倾向关系的追踪研究

目的:本研究致力于分析农民认知社会资本与抑郁倾向的关系。方法:通过对黑龙江省2138位农民进行追踪调查,用凯斯勒心理疾患量表中文六项版衡量抑郁程度,将初次调查时“无抑郁倾向组”的“认知社会资本程度”和他们在追踪调查时的“抑郁倾向程度”作为解释变量和被解释变量,将性别、年龄、经济状况、追踪期间是否发生消极事件等作为调节变量,进行多元Logistic回归分析。结果:初次调查中“低社会资本组”在追踪调查时产生抑郁倾向的概率明显高于“高社会资本组”(比值比为1.94,95%置信区间为1.30~2.90);控制性别、年龄后仍得到同样结果(比值比为1.70,95%置信区间为1.12~2.59);控制性别、年龄、经济状况、追踪期间发生的消极事件后也得到同样结果(比值比为1.66,95%置信区间:1.08~2.56)。结论:农民的认知社会资本越高,产生抑郁倾向的风险性越小。

基于选择实验法的农户测土配方施肥政策偏好研究——以浙江省为例

基于浙江省1044个农户调研数据,对农户测土配方施肥政策偏好进行研究。结果表明:随着农户兼业程度增加,其实施测土配方施肥的意愿将下降。现金奖励、技术培训和贷款优惠等政策能显著提高农户实施测土配方施肥的比例。文化程度、是否参加合作社、重要性认知、产量认知等变量对农户测土配方施肥行为有显著影响。不同兼业程度的农户对测土配方施肥政策偏好优先序存在较大差异。其中,非农产业收入占家庭总收入的比例小于10%的纯农户最偏好农机补贴政策,比例介于10%~50%的Ⅰ型兼业农户最偏好现金奖励政策,比例超过50%的Ⅱ型兼业农户最偏好贷款优惠政策。

超大城市基于活动的交通需求模型建设——上海的探索与实践

基于活动的交通需求模型从人的活动需求本源出发,能很好地刻画活动与出行之间的关系,进而建立城市规划或交通规划方案与居民生活之间的关联。回顾国际上从四阶段交通需求模型到基于活动的模型发展,总结北美基于活动的模型软件的模型特点、开发程序和实践经验。根据超大城市的模型应用需求、数据条件、运算速度和开发效率情况,设计了适用于上海市的基于活动的模型框架结构。基于活动的模型包括重构人口个体数据的人口仿真(合成)模型、强制性活动的中长期模型,以及包含出行链和中间停留点的短期模型等模块。重点介绍了模型参数标定的总体情况,并利用居民出行调查、百度位置服务、手机信令等多源数据对模型结果进行多维度校核验证,结果表明模型准确度高、运行速度快。最后指出,基于活动的模型优势显著,但其他城市应用时需权衡开发成本和应用的实际效果,建议以四阶段模型为基础开展基于活动的模型开发。

计及多方利益的“车-路-网”三层充电优化方法

随着电动汽车(EVs)保有量逐年增加,充电需求日益增大,短时间内大规模EVs集中充电不仅会给电网稳定运行带来风险和负担,还会造成路网交通拥堵。为了缓解上述问题,提出一种兼顾配电网、路网和车主三方利益的“车-路-网”三层充电优化方法。通过三层优化模型的相互传递与配合,对配电网的等效负荷方差和有功网损、路网的通畅情况、车主的充电总成本进行协调优化。以杭州市某区域路网为例,结合IEEE-33节点配电网系统进行仿真。通过三层充电优化,系统等效负荷方差降低72.82%,有功网损降低83.41%,车主充电总成本减少8.89%。仿真结果表明,所提优化方法能够合理安排EVs充电,可以在平抑负荷波动和降低有功网损的同时,缓解路网拥堵和降低车主充电总成本。

考虑个体异质性的大型活动参与意向选择行为

为研究个体异质性对于大型活动参与意向选择的影响,构建了基于潜在类别选择模型的大型活动参与意向选择模型。使用D-optimal设计法生成了大型活动参与意向调查中的选择情景,并假设以天津市奥体中心为大型活动举办地,对天津市居民开展了大型活动参与意向调查。根据调查获取的数据,使用EM算法对模型进行了参数估计。模型结果表明:天气、活动时间、票价、活动类型、政策复杂度等是影响大型活动参与意向选择的主要因素。模型将潜在的大型活动参与者划分为天气敏感型群体、活动时间敏感型群体、票价敏感型群体3类,分别占样本总体的30%、15%、55%,区分度为0.81,其中类别1对天气类型最为敏感,对活动举办时间和票价不敏感;类别2对活动举办时间最为敏感,对天气的敏感程度较低;类别3对票价最为敏感,对活动时间和政策复杂度不敏感。

乡村振兴助力共同富裕的内在逻辑与路径选择

实现共同富裕离不开乡村振兴,全面推进乡村振兴是实现共同富裕的重要措施。乡村振兴作为新时代农业强国战略的战略部署,是共同富裕的实现进路,是新时代“三农”工作的总抓手,是促进和达成社会公平正义的必经之路。在现实中,囿于认知偏差和路径依赖,全面推进乡村振兴面临乡村振兴主体性缺失,城乡二元结构、乡村高质量发展基础不稳固的困难。全面推进乡村振兴需要巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果,创新推动城乡融合发展,持续建设农民主体性。

上海市大型居住社区居民非工作出行链选择行为研究

以上海市居民出行调查数据为基础,选取大型居住社区居民为对象,构建了居民非工作出行链选择行为模型。通过多项logistics模型研究了个人属性、家庭属性、非工作出行特性以及社区特征对4种典型非工作出行链选择行为的影响。研究表明,以简单维持链为参照,未就业者、年龄30岁以下、采用小汽车出行方式及社区公共设施呈网络型布置的居民较多选择简单休闲链;采用慢行出行方式、社区公共设施呈分散型布置的居民较多选择复杂非通勤链;就业者、年龄30岁以下、采用小汽车出行方式、居住在中心区及社区公共设施呈网络型布置的居民较多选择复杂通勤链。研究能够指导相关交通政策制定,引导居民的非工作出行活动模式,助力大型居住社区规划与公共设施布局设计,并为“15分钟”生活圈与人民城市建设提供技术支撑。