The 10kV distribution network is an essential component of the power system,and its stable operation is crucial for ensuring reliable power supply.However,various factors can lead to faults in the distribution network...The 10kV distribution network is an essential component of the power system,and its stable operation is crucial for ensuring reliable power supply.However,various factors can lead to faults in the distribution network.In order to enhance the safety and reliability of power distribution,this paper focuses on the analysis of faults in the 10kV distribution network caused by natural factors,operational factors,human factors,and equipment factors.It elucidates the various hazards resulting from distribution network faults and proposes corresponding preventive measures for different types of faults in the 10kV distribution network.The aim is to mitigate or reduce the impact of distribution network faults,ensuring the safe and stable operation of the distribution system.展开更多
The Weihe Graben is not only an important Cenozoic fault basin in China but also a significant active seismic zone. The Huashan piedmont fault is an important active fault on the southeast side of the Weihe Graben and...The Weihe Graben is not only an important Cenozoic fault basin in China but also a significant active seismic zone. The Huashan piedmont fault is an important active fault on the southeast side of the Weihe Graben and has been highly active since the Cenozoic. The well–known Great Huaxian County Earthquake of 1556 occurred on the Huashan piedmont fault. This earthquake, which claimed the lives of approximately 830000 people, is one of the few large earthquakes known to have occurred on a high–angle normal fault. The Huashan piedmont fault is a typical active normal fault that can be used to study tectonic activity and the associated hazards. In this study, the types and characteristics of late Quaternary deformation along this fault are discussed from geological investigations, historical research and comprehensive analysis. On the basis of its characteristics and activity, the fault can be divided into three sections, namely eastern, central and western. The eastern and western sections display normal slip. Intense deformation has occurred along the two sections during the Quaternary; however, no deformation has occurred during the Holocene. The central section has experienced significant high–angle normal fault activity during the Quaternary, including the Holocene. Holocene alluvial fans and loess cut by the fault have been identified at the mouths of many stream valleys of the Huashan Mountains along the central section of the Huashan piedmont fault zone. Of the three sections of the Huashan piedmont fault, the central section is the most active and was very active during the late Quaternary. The rate of normal dip–slip was 1.67–2.71±0.11 mm/a in the Holocene and 0.61±0.15 mm/a during the Mid–Late Pleistocene. As is typical of normal faults, the late Quaternary activity of the Huashan piedmont fault has produced a set of disasters, which include frequent earthquakes, collapses, landslides, mudslides and ground fissures. Ground fissures mainly occur on the hanging–wall of the Huashan piedmont fault, with landslides, collapses and mudslides occurring on the footwall.展开更多
There are two co-seismic faults which developed when the Wenchuan earthquake happened. One occurred along the active fault zone in the central Longmen Mts. and the other in the front of Longmen Mts. The length of whic...There are two co-seismic faults which developed when the Wenchuan earthquake happened. One occurred along the active fault zone in the central Longmen Mts. and the other in the front of Longmen Mts. The length of which is more than 270 kin and about 80 km respectively. The co-seismic fault shows a reverse flexure belt with strike of N45°-60°E in the ground, which caused uplift at its northwest side and subsidence at the southeast. The fault face dips to the northwest with a dip angle ranging from 50° to 60°. The vertical offset of the co-seismic fault ranges 2.5-3.0 m along the Yingxiu- Beichuan co-seismic fault, and 1.5-1.1 m along the Doujiangyan-Hanwang fault. Movement of the coseismic fault presents obvious segmented features along the active fault zone in central Longmen Mts. For instance, in the section from Yingxiu to Leigu town, thrust without evident slip occurred; while from Beichuan to Qingchuan, thrust and dextral strike-slip take place. Main movement along the front Longmen Mts. shows thrust without slip and segmented features. The area of earthquake intensity more than IX degree and the distribution of secondary geological hazards occurred along the hanging wall of co-seismic faults, and were consistent with the area of aftershock, and its width is less than 40km from co-seismic faults in the hanging wall. The secondary geological hazards, collapses, landslides, debris flows et al., concentrated in the hanging wall of co-seismic fault within 0-20 km from co-seismic fault.展开更多
On the basis of field observation and measuring data, the authors discuss the types,distributing regularity and gemesos of geological disasters on the Northern Huashan predmont and its foreland plain. We think that ...On the basis of field observation and measuring data, the authors discuss the types,distributing regularity and gemesos of geological disasters on the Northern Huashan predmont and its foreland plain. We think that the activity of Northern Huashan piedmont fault zone since Quaternary period makes the mountain highly uplift,which provide a favorable terrain condition for gravitatiotal geological hazard;the recent activity of the buried fault on the foreland plain is the main reason of ground cracking and sinking .Finally ,we make a synthetical analysis of geological hazard risk on the study area.展开更多
The work is devoted to a problem of seismic activity of northern part of Sakhalin Island.The active faults were trenched and studied in detail.Its expressiveness in a relief and character of displacement of strata is ...The work is devoted to a problem of seismic activity of northern part of Sakhalin Island.The active faults were trenched and studied in detail.Its expressiveness in a relief and character of displacement of strata is discussed.We provide cogent evidences that young tectonic faults on Schmidt peninsula were formed as a result of sharp periodic motions with amplitudes up to several meters and are connected with strong earthquakes.The urgency of work is that there are works on search of hydrocarbons展开更多
Many destructive earthquakes happened in Tehran, Iran in the last centuries. The existence of active faults like the North Tehran is the main cause of seismicity in this city. According to past investigations, it is e...Many destructive earthquakes happened in Tehran, Iran in the last centuries. The existence of active faults like the North Tehran is the main cause of seismicity in this city. According to past investigations, it is estimated that in the scenario of activation of the North Tehran fault, many structures in Tehran will collapse. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near field rupture directivity effects of this fault into the seismic hazard assessment of important sites in Tehran. In this study, using calculations coded in MATLAB, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is conducted for an important site in Tehran. Following that, deaggregation technique is performed on PSHA and the contribution of seis- mic scenarios to hazard is obtained in the range of distance and magnitude. After identifying the North Tehran fault as the most hazardous source affecting the site in 10000-year return period, rupture directivity effects of this fault is incorporated into the seismic hazard assessment using Somerville et al. (1997) model with broadband approach and Shahi and Baker (2011) model with narrowband approach. The results show that the narrowband approach caused a 27% increase in the peak of response spectrum in 10000-year return period compared with the conventional PSHA. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near fault rupture directivity effects into the higher levels of seismic hazard assessment attributed to important sites.展开更多
The </span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">software reliability model is the stochastic model to measure the software <span>reliability quantitatively....The </span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">software reliability model is the stochastic model to measure the software <span>reliability quantitatively. A Hazard-Rate Model is </span></span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">the </span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">well</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">-</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">known one as the</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""> typical software reliability model. We propose Hazard-Rate Models Consider<span>ing Fault Severity Levels (CFSL) for Open Source Software (OSS). The purpose of </span><span>this research is to </span></span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">make </span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">the Hazard-Rate Model considering CFSL adapt to</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""> </span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">baseline hazard function and 2 kinds of faults data in Bug Tracking System <span>(BTS)</span></span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">,</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""> <i>i.e.</i>, we use the covariate vectors in Cox proportional Hazard-Rate</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""> Model. Also, <span>we show the numerical examples by evaluating the performance of our pro</span><span>posed model. As the result, we compare the performance of our model with the</span> Hazard-Rate Model CFSL.展开更多
This paper presents the first release of an Informational System(IS)devoted to the systematic collection of all available data relating to Pliocene-Quaternary faults in southern East Siberia,their critical analysis ...This paper presents the first release of an Informational System(IS)devoted to the systematic collection of all available data relating to Pliocene-Quaternary faults in southern East Siberia,their critical analysis and their seismotectonic parameterization.The final goal of this project is to form a new base for improving the assessment of seismic hazard and other natural processes associated with crustal deformation.The presented IS has been exploited to create a relational database of active and conditionally active faults in southern East Siberia(between 100°-114° E and 50°-57° N)whose central sector is characterized by the highly seismic Baikal rift zone.The information within the database for each fault segment is organized as distinct but intercorrelated sections(tables,texts and pictures,etc.)and can be easily visualized as HTML pages in offline browsing.The preliminary version of the database distributed free on disk already highlights the general fault pattern showing that the Holocene and historical activity is quite uniform and dominated by NE-SW and nearly E-W trending faults;the former with a prevailing dip-slip normal kinematics,while the latter structures are left-lateral strike-slip and oblique-slip(with different proportion of left-lateral and normal fault slip components).These faults are mainly concentrated along the borders of the rift basins and are the main sources of moderate-to-strong(M≥5.5)earthquakes on the southern sectors of East Siberia in recent times.As a whole,based on analyzing the diverse fault kinematics and their variable spatial distribution with respect to the overall pattern of the tectonic structures formed and/or activated during the late Pliocene-Quaternary,we conclude they were generated under a regional stress field mainly characterized by a relatively uniform NW-SE tension,but strongly influenced by the irregular hard boundary of the old Siberian craton.The obtained inferences are in an agreement with the existing models of the development of the Baikal region.展开更多
Fault parameters are important in earthquake hazard analysis.In this paper,theoretical relationships between moment magnitude and fault parameters including subsurface rupture length,downdip rupture width,rupture area...Fault parameters are important in earthquake hazard analysis.In this paper,theoretical relationships between moment magnitude and fault parameters including subsurface rupture length,downdip rupture width,rupture area,and average slip over the fault surface are deduced based on seismological theory.These theoretical relationships are further simplified by applying similarity conditions and an unique form is established.Then,combining the simplified theoretical relationships between moment magnitude and fault parameters with seismic source data selected in this study,a practical semi-empirical relationship is established.The seismic source data selected is also to used to derive empirical relationships between moment magnitude and fault parameters by the ordinary least square regression method.Comparisons between semi-empirical relationships and empirical relationships show that the former depict distribution trends of data better than the latter.It is also observed that downdip rupture widths of strike slip faults are saturated when moment magnitude is more than 7.0,but downdip rupture widths of dip slip faults are not saturated in the molnent magnitude rangcs of this study.展开更多
The study area (Bandar Abbas area) is located in the Zagros fold-thrust belt as part of the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt as seismically active belt. This area is located between the Makran accretionary prism and Oma...The study area (Bandar Abbas area) is located in the Zagros fold-thrust belt as part of the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt as seismically active belt. This area is located between the Makran accretionary prism and Oman Mountains from east and the Zagros collision belt from west as transition zone. The Zagros fold-thrust belt from the viewpoint of seismicity, is very active and Iran’s major earthquake-prone area. The study area has main active faults and some high magnitude earthquakes occurred in current century. Because the Bandar Abbas area has high seismic activity, the main goal of this research is prepared to earthquake hazard zonation and identify hazardous seismic zones, based on Decision Support System method for define active seismotectonic in this area. The seismotectonic study has been done in 30 - 100 km radius, for Bandar Abbas area. In this research, we used Decision Support System method by in corporate and combine essential data such as seismic data from 1900-2015, Digital Elevation Model of the study area (DEM), surface geology, seismicity parameters, soil classification and location main faults. In this research the Decision Support System (DSS) base on GIS database is used for calculate seismicity parameters. Based on the relative risk of earthquake zonation map, the Bandar Abbas area is located from the north to the East and from the South to the East, in area with high seismic risk (with Orange color). Some small regions with very high relative seismic risk have been limited to these areas with high risk. Also from north to west and from south to west “the study area” is located mainly in the area with earthquake relative risk of in areas with moderate and low relative risk of earthquakes. In the far southwestern region of the study, the small area is located in an area with high and very high seismic relative risk and this case may be due to the activity of the Mountain Front Fault (MFF) and Zagros Fore deep Fault (ZFF). Finally, the study area has been affected by active faults and it causes high vulnerability of the study area in the face of a possible occurrence of earthquakes. Based on of Seismotectonic investigations, there are existed minor faults of the Zagros fault from East to West and in the middle part. This case has been caused some parts in the study area with low and moderate seismic risk to be considered in the face of possible earthquakes and seismic damages, as an area with high seismic risk.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to adopt the uniform confidence method in both water pipeline design and oil-gas pipeline design.Based on the importance of pipeline and consequence of its failure,oil and gas pipeline can...The purpose of this paper is to adopt the uniform confidence method in both water pipeline design and oil-gas pipeline design.Based on the importance of pipeline and consequence of its failure,oil and gas pipeline can be classified into three pipe classes,with exceeding probabilities over 50 years of 2%,5% and 10%,respectively.Performance-based design requires more information about ground motion,which should be obtained by evaluating seismic safety for pipeline engineering site.Different from a city's water pipeline network,the long-distance oil and gas pipeline system is a spatially linearly distributed system.For the uniform confidence of seismic safety,a long-distance oil and pipeline formed with pump stations and different-class pipe segments should be considered as a whole system when analyzing seismic risk.Considering the uncertainty of earthquake magnitude,the design-basis fault displacements corresponding to the different pipeline classes are proposed to improve deterministic seismic hazard analysis(DSHA).A new empirical relationship between the maximum fault displacement and the surface-wave magnitude is obtained with the supplemented earthquake data in East Asia.The estimation of fault displacement for a refined oil pipeline in Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake is introduced as an example in this paper.展开更多
The so-called Pelusium Megashear System (PMS), consists of echelon left-lateral megashears crossing Africa from the Nile-Delta since the Precambrian times. Although this system is questioned by some scientists, its ex...The so-called Pelusium Megashear System (PMS), consists of echelon left-lateral megashears crossing Africa from the Nile-Delta since the Precambrian times. Although this system is questioned by some scientists, its existence is sup- ported by others. This research work provides evidences for the existence of the PMS near Egypt’s capital (Cairo city). Evidence is interpreted from gravity, magnetic, and seismological data, which proves that it has been in existence since 2800 BC [1]. To support the existence of this fault zone system, all available tectonic data are reviewed;new magnetic tilt derivative TDR map and recent fault plane solution map are introduced. Moreover available earthquake catalogue for historical and recent occurrences in and around the Pelusium zone is compiled. The collected recent and historical seismicity data is supporting the existence of PMS system. The faults excluded from magnetic maps were found to be in a good agreement with tectonic and gravity data introduced by some authors. Available fault plane solutions for old and recent earthquakes gave rise to the hypothesis that the PMS is right lateral shear system. Additionally, the Pelusium zone is evaluated for the rate of seismic activity. The hazards of these zones are studied by calculating the earthquake recurrence rates using Richter-Gutenberg formula (LogN = a – bM). A statistical method is applied to exclude the effect of lack of data due to little seismograph station in the early records, or lack of population density. The Pelusium Megashear fault system proved to be active at least in Egypt, however, it plays a role only over big time window, may be thousands of years to dissipate stresses accumulated within the west of Sinai Peninsula in the African Eurasian-Arabian plates. Finally integrated tectonic model including the effect of PMS is introduced to solve the complexity of intraplate tectonics in Northern Egypt.展开更多
The present-day stress state of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault after the Wenchuan earthquake was re-estimated using measured in-situ stress data obtained after the Wenchuan earthquake. The results reveal that the gradient...The present-day stress state of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault after the Wenchuan earthquake was re-estimated using measured in-situ stress data obtained after the Wenchuan earthquake. The results reveal that the gradient coefficients of principal stresses versus depth decrease from south to north along the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault, revealing that the stress level decreases from south to north. The consistency between the present-day stress levels and surface ruptures generated during the earthquake indicates that the accumulated tectonic stress beneath the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault before the Wenchuan earthquake was relieved in form of surface ruptures. This resulted in the stress remaining high in the southern section of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault but relatively low in the northern section. Abnormal high pore pressure conditions and an extremely low frictional coefficient play important role in the interpretation of the stress field adjustment and seismic events observed after the Wenchuan earthquake along this fault, according to the estimation results using the Coulomb frictional-failure theory incorporating frictional coefficients ranging from 0.4 to 1.0. To accurately estimate the seismological hazard of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault by analyzing fault instability using the Coulomb frictional-failure theory, much attention should be focused on the pore pressure conditions and the evolution state of the frictional coefficient under the present-day stress state.展开更多
When seismic thrust faults emerge on the ground surface, they are particularly damaging to buildings, bridges and lifelines that lie on the rupture path. To protect a structure founded on a rigid raft, a thick diaphra...When seismic thrust faults emerge on the ground surface, they are particularly damaging to buildings, bridges and lifelines that lie on the rupture path. To protect a structure founded on a rigid raft, a thick diaphragm-type soil bentonite wall (SBW) is installed in front of and near the foundation, at sufficient depth to intercept the propagating fault rupture. Extensive numerical analyses, verified against reduced-scale (1 g) split box physical model tests, reveal that such a wall, thanks to its high deformability and low shear resistance, "absorbs" the compressive thrust of the fault and forces the rupture to deviate upwards along its length. As a consequence, the foundation is left essentially intact. The effectiveness of SBW is demonstrated to depend on the exact location of the emerging fault and the magnitude of the fault offset. When the latter is large, the unprotected foundation experiences intolerable rigid-body rotation even if the foundation structural distress is not substantial.展开更多
Santo Domingo de Heredia, Costa Rica is a county facing serious risks from natural hazards, specifically flooding, earthquakes, volcanic activity and landslides. In order to inform disaster risk reduction efforts and ...Santo Domingo de Heredia, Costa Rica is a county facing serious risks from natural hazards, specifically flooding, earthquakes, volcanic activity and landslides. In order to inform disaster risk reduction efforts and improve the safety and well-being of local residents, this article assessed these natural hazards using a geographical approach. First, we described the four hazards based on a review of reports from previous emergencies, scientific papers and newspaper articles. Second, we integrated spatial data on each hazard to create a hazard density index for the county at the level of the census unit (n = 140). Results demonstrate that river flooding has caused the most damage of the four hazards in recent times. Both seismic and volcanic risks (specifically ash fall from volcanic eruptions) affect the entire area of Santo Domingo. Landslides have affected localized, settled areas of steep river canyons in the southern part of the county. In general, the highest density of hazards is located in the southern reaches of Santo Domingo. As such, we recommend that local authorities concentrate their management efforts in that area.展开更多
Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may h...Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may have great influence upon the seismic hazard of a site which is near the source. Under this circumstance, it is unreasonable to use the simplified potential source models in the PSHA, so a potential rupture surface model is proposed in this paper. Adopting this model, we analyze the seismic hazard near the Chelungpu fault that generated the Chi-Chi (Jiji) earthquake with magnitude 7.6 and the following conclusions are reached. (1) This model is reasonable on the base of focal mechanism, especially for sites near potential earthquakes with large magnitude; (2) The attitudes of potential rupture surfaces have great influence on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning.展开更多
基金Tibet Autonomous Region Natural Fund Key Project(XZ202201ZR0024G)。
文摘The 10kV distribution network is an essential component of the power system,and its stable operation is crucial for ensuring reliable power supply.However,various factors can lead to faults in the distribution network.In order to enhance the safety and reliability of power distribution,this paper focuses on the analysis of faults in the 10kV distribution network caused by natural factors,operational factors,human factors,and equipment factors.It elucidates the various hazards resulting from distribution network faults and proposes corresponding preventive measures for different types of faults in the 10kV distribution network.The aim is to mitigate or reduce the impact of distribution network faults,ensuring the safe and stable operation of the distribution system.
基金granted by the Geological Investigation Project of China Geological Survey (Grant Nos.1212011120102 and 12120115003501)
文摘The Weihe Graben is not only an important Cenozoic fault basin in China but also a significant active seismic zone. The Huashan piedmont fault is an important active fault on the southeast side of the Weihe Graben and has been highly active since the Cenozoic. The well–known Great Huaxian County Earthquake of 1556 occurred on the Huashan piedmont fault. This earthquake, which claimed the lives of approximately 830000 people, is one of the few large earthquakes known to have occurred on a high–angle normal fault. The Huashan piedmont fault is a typical active normal fault that can be used to study tectonic activity and the associated hazards. In this study, the types and characteristics of late Quaternary deformation along this fault are discussed from geological investigations, historical research and comprehensive analysis. On the basis of its characteristics and activity, the fault can be divided into three sections, namely eastern, central and western. The eastern and western sections display normal slip. Intense deformation has occurred along the two sections during the Quaternary; however, no deformation has occurred during the Holocene. The central section has experienced significant high–angle normal fault activity during the Quaternary, including the Holocene. Holocene alluvial fans and loess cut by the fault have been identified at the mouths of many stream valleys of the Huashan Mountains along the central section of the Huashan piedmont fault zone. Of the three sections of the Huashan piedmont fault, the central section is the most active and was very active during the late Quaternary. The rate of normal dip–slip was 1.67–2.71±0.11 mm/a in the Holocene and 0.61±0.15 mm/a during the Mid–Late Pleistocene. As is typical of normal faults, the late Quaternary activity of the Huashan piedmont fault has produced a set of disasters, which include frequent earthquakes, collapses, landslides, mudslides and ground fissures. Ground fissures mainly occur on the hanging–wall of the Huashan piedmont fault, with landslides, collapses and mudslides occurring on the footwall.
基金supported by the Department of Science and Technology and International Cooperation,The Ministry of Land and Resources,P.R.ChinaFinancial supported by the research of"Longmenshan fault zone and dynamical condition analysis of Wenchuan earthquake"(No.2008CB425702)
文摘There are two co-seismic faults which developed when the Wenchuan earthquake happened. One occurred along the active fault zone in the central Longmen Mts. and the other in the front of Longmen Mts. The length of which is more than 270 kin and about 80 km respectively. The co-seismic fault shows a reverse flexure belt with strike of N45°-60°E in the ground, which caused uplift at its northwest side and subsidence at the southeast. The fault face dips to the northwest with a dip angle ranging from 50° to 60°. The vertical offset of the co-seismic fault ranges 2.5-3.0 m along the Yingxiu- Beichuan co-seismic fault, and 1.5-1.1 m along the Doujiangyan-Hanwang fault. Movement of the coseismic fault presents obvious segmented features along the active fault zone in central Longmen Mts. For instance, in the section from Yingxiu to Leigu town, thrust without evident slip occurred; while from Beichuan to Qingchuan, thrust and dextral strike-slip take place. Main movement along the front Longmen Mts. shows thrust without slip and segmented features. The area of earthquake intensity more than IX degree and the distribution of secondary geological hazards occurred along the hanging wall of co-seismic faults, and were consistent with the area of aftershock, and its width is less than 40km from co-seismic faults in the hanging wall. The secondary geological hazards, collapses, landslides, debris flows et al., concentrated in the hanging wall of co-seismic fault within 0-20 km from co-seismic fault.
文摘On the basis of field observation and measuring data, the authors discuss the types,distributing regularity and gemesos of geological disasters on the Northern Huashan predmont and its foreland plain. We think that the activity of Northern Huashan piedmont fault zone since Quaternary period makes the mountain highly uplift,which provide a favorable terrain condition for gravitatiotal geological hazard;the recent activity of the buried fault on the foreland plain is the main reason of ground cracking and sinking .Finally ,we make a synthetical analysis of geological hazard risk on the study area.
文摘The work is devoted to a problem of seismic activity of northern part of Sakhalin Island.The active faults were trenched and studied in detail.Its expressiveness in a relief and character of displacement of strata is discussed.We provide cogent evidences that young tectonic faults on Schmidt peninsula were formed as a result of sharp periodic motions with amplitudes up to several meters and are connected with strong earthquakes.The urgency of work is that there are works on search of hydrocarbons
文摘Many destructive earthquakes happened in Tehran, Iran in the last centuries. The existence of active faults like the North Tehran is the main cause of seismicity in this city. According to past investigations, it is estimated that in the scenario of activation of the North Tehran fault, many structures in Tehran will collapse. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near field rupture directivity effects of this fault into the seismic hazard assessment of important sites in Tehran. In this study, using calculations coded in MATLAB, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is conducted for an important site in Tehran. Following that, deaggregation technique is performed on PSHA and the contribution of seis- mic scenarios to hazard is obtained in the range of distance and magnitude. After identifying the North Tehran fault as the most hazardous source affecting the site in 10000-year return period, rupture directivity effects of this fault is incorporated into the seismic hazard assessment using Somerville et al. (1997) model with broadband approach and Shahi and Baker (2011) model with narrowband approach. The results show that the narrowband approach caused a 27% increase in the peak of response spectrum in 10000-year return period compared with the conventional PSHA. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near fault rupture directivity effects into the higher levels of seismic hazard assessment attributed to important sites.
文摘The </span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">software reliability model is the stochastic model to measure the software <span>reliability quantitatively. A Hazard-Rate Model is </span></span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">the </span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">well</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">-</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">known one as the</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""> typical software reliability model. We propose Hazard-Rate Models Consider<span>ing Fault Severity Levels (CFSL) for Open Source Software (OSS). The purpose of </span><span>this research is to </span></span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">make </span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">the Hazard-Rate Model considering CFSL adapt to</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""> </span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">baseline hazard function and 2 kinds of faults data in Bug Tracking System <span>(BTS)</span></span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:"">,</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""> <i>i.e.</i>, we use the covariate vectors in Cox proportional Hazard-Rate</span></span></span><span><span><span style="font-family:""> Model. Also, <span>we show the numerical examples by evaluating the performance of our pro</span><span>posed model. As the result, we compare the performance of our model with the</span> Hazard-Rate Model CFSL.
基金supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research(grant 12-05-91161-GFEN)Ministry of education and science of Russia(grants 8316 and 8357)
文摘This paper presents the first release of an Informational System(IS)devoted to the systematic collection of all available data relating to Pliocene-Quaternary faults in southern East Siberia,their critical analysis and their seismotectonic parameterization.The final goal of this project is to form a new base for improving the assessment of seismic hazard and other natural processes associated with crustal deformation.The presented IS has been exploited to create a relational database of active and conditionally active faults in southern East Siberia(between 100°-114° E and 50°-57° N)whose central sector is characterized by the highly seismic Baikal rift zone.The information within the database for each fault segment is organized as distinct but intercorrelated sections(tables,texts and pictures,etc.)and can be easily visualized as HTML pages in offline browsing.The preliminary version of the database distributed free on disk already highlights the general fault pattern showing that the Holocene and historical activity is quite uniform and dominated by NE-SW and nearly E-W trending faults;the former with a prevailing dip-slip normal kinematics,while the latter structures are left-lateral strike-slip and oblique-slip(with different proportion of left-lateral and normal fault slip components).These faults are mainly concentrated along the borders of the rift basins and are the main sources of moderate-to-strong(M≥5.5)earthquakes on the southern sectors of East Siberia in recent times.As a whole,based on analyzing the diverse fault kinematics and their variable spatial distribution with respect to the overall pattern of the tectonic structures formed and/or activated during the late Pliocene-Quaternary,we conclude they were generated under a regional stress field mainly characterized by a relatively uniform NW-SE tension,but strongly influenced by the irregular hard boundary of the old Siberian craton.The obtained inferences are in an agreement with the existing models of the development of the Baikal region.
基金Ministry of Science and Technology of China(Grant No.2002DIB30076)China Seismological Bureau(Grant No.201009)
文摘Fault parameters are important in earthquake hazard analysis.In this paper,theoretical relationships between moment magnitude and fault parameters including subsurface rupture length,downdip rupture width,rupture area,and average slip over the fault surface are deduced based on seismological theory.These theoretical relationships are further simplified by applying similarity conditions and an unique form is established.Then,combining the simplified theoretical relationships between moment magnitude and fault parameters with seismic source data selected in this study,a practical semi-empirical relationship is established.The seismic source data selected is also to used to derive empirical relationships between moment magnitude and fault parameters by the ordinary least square regression method.Comparisons between semi-empirical relationships and empirical relationships show that the former depict distribution trends of data better than the latter.It is also observed that downdip rupture widths of strike slip faults are saturated when moment magnitude is more than 7.0,but downdip rupture widths of dip slip faults are not saturated in the molnent magnitude rangcs of this study.
文摘The study area (Bandar Abbas area) is located in the Zagros fold-thrust belt as part of the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt as seismically active belt. This area is located between the Makran accretionary prism and Oman Mountains from east and the Zagros collision belt from west as transition zone. The Zagros fold-thrust belt from the viewpoint of seismicity, is very active and Iran’s major earthquake-prone area. The study area has main active faults and some high magnitude earthquakes occurred in current century. Because the Bandar Abbas area has high seismic activity, the main goal of this research is prepared to earthquake hazard zonation and identify hazardous seismic zones, based on Decision Support System method for define active seismotectonic in this area. The seismotectonic study has been done in 30 - 100 km radius, for Bandar Abbas area. In this research, we used Decision Support System method by in corporate and combine essential data such as seismic data from 1900-2015, Digital Elevation Model of the study area (DEM), surface geology, seismicity parameters, soil classification and location main faults. In this research the Decision Support System (DSS) base on GIS database is used for calculate seismicity parameters. Based on the relative risk of earthquake zonation map, the Bandar Abbas area is located from the north to the East and from the South to the East, in area with high seismic risk (with Orange color). Some small regions with very high relative seismic risk have been limited to these areas with high risk. Also from north to west and from south to west “the study area” is located mainly in the area with earthquake relative risk of in areas with moderate and low relative risk of earthquakes. In the far southwestern region of the study, the small area is located in an area with high and very high seismic relative risk and this case may be due to the activity of the Mountain Front Fault (MFF) and Zagros Fore deep Fault (ZFF). Finally, the study area has been affected by active faults and it causes high vulnerability of the study area in the face of a possible occurrence of earthquakes. Based on of Seismotectonic investigations, there are existed minor faults of the Zagros fault from East to West and in the middle part. This case has been caused some parts in the study area with low and moderate seismic risk to be considered in the face of possible earthquakes and seismic damages, as an area with high seismic risk.
基金supported by the National Scientific and Technological support project MST (2006BAC13B02-0106)spe-cial research funds from the Public Institute of China,Institute of Geophysics (IGP),China Earthquake Ad-ministration (CEA) (DQJB06A01)The contribution No. is 10FE3004,IGP,CEA
文摘The purpose of this paper is to adopt the uniform confidence method in both water pipeline design and oil-gas pipeline design.Based on the importance of pipeline and consequence of its failure,oil and gas pipeline can be classified into three pipe classes,with exceeding probabilities over 50 years of 2%,5% and 10%,respectively.Performance-based design requires more information about ground motion,which should be obtained by evaluating seismic safety for pipeline engineering site.Different from a city's water pipeline network,the long-distance oil and gas pipeline system is a spatially linearly distributed system.For the uniform confidence of seismic safety,a long-distance oil and pipeline formed with pump stations and different-class pipe segments should be considered as a whole system when analyzing seismic risk.Considering the uncertainty of earthquake magnitude,the design-basis fault displacements corresponding to the different pipeline classes are proposed to improve deterministic seismic hazard analysis(DSHA).A new empirical relationship between the maximum fault displacement and the surface-wave magnitude is obtained with the supplemented earthquake data in East Asia.The estimation of fault displacement for a refined oil pipeline in Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake is introduced as an example in this paper.
文摘The so-called Pelusium Megashear System (PMS), consists of echelon left-lateral megashears crossing Africa from the Nile-Delta since the Precambrian times. Although this system is questioned by some scientists, its existence is sup- ported by others. This research work provides evidences for the existence of the PMS near Egypt’s capital (Cairo city). Evidence is interpreted from gravity, magnetic, and seismological data, which proves that it has been in existence since 2800 BC [1]. To support the existence of this fault zone system, all available tectonic data are reviewed;new magnetic tilt derivative TDR map and recent fault plane solution map are introduced. Moreover available earthquake catalogue for historical and recent occurrences in and around the Pelusium zone is compiled. The collected recent and historical seismicity data is supporting the existence of PMS system. The faults excluded from magnetic maps were found to be in a good agreement with tectonic and gravity data introduced by some authors. Available fault plane solutions for old and recent earthquakes gave rise to the hypothesis that the PMS is right lateral shear system. Additionally, the Pelusium zone is evaluated for the rate of seismic activity. The hazards of these zones are studied by calculating the earthquake recurrence rates using Richter-Gutenberg formula (LogN = a – bM). A statistical method is applied to exclude the effect of lack of data due to little seismograph station in the early records, or lack of population density. The Pelusium Megashear fault system proved to be active at least in Egypt, however, it plays a role only over big time window, may be thousands of years to dissipate stresses accumulated within the west of Sinai Peninsula in the African Eurasian-Arabian plates. Finally integrated tectonic model including the effect of PMS is introduced to solve the complexity of intraplate tectonics in Northern Egypt.
基金supported by the China Geological Survey(No.12120114002401)Science and Technology Project(SinoP robe-06)+1 种基金Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41404080)the Central Public-Interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund(No.DZLXJK201404)
文摘The present-day stress state of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault after the Wenchuan earthquake was re-estimated using measured in-situ stress data obtained after the Wenchuan earthquake. The results reveal that the gradient coefficients of principal stresses versus depth decrease from south to north along the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault, revealing that the stress level decreases from south to north. The consistency between the present-day stress levels and surface ruptures generated during the earthquake indicates that the accumulated tectonic stress beneath the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault before the Wenchuan earthquake was relieved in form of surface ruptures. This resulted in the stress remaining high in the southern section of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault but relatively low in the northern section. Abnormal high pore pressure conditions and an extremely low frictional coefficient play important role in the interpretation of the stress field adjustment and seismic events observed after the Wenchuan earthquake along this fault, according to the estimation results using the Coulomb frictional-failure theory incorporating frictional coefficients ranging from 0.4 to 1.0. To accurately estimate the seismological hazard of the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault by analyzing fault instability using the Coulomb frictional-failure theory, much attention should be focused on the pore pressure conditions and the evolution state of the frictional coefficient under the present-day stress state.
基金the technical and financial support of IIEES under the research project "Evaluation of possible measures to construct in vicinity of active fault"the financial support under the research project "DARE", by the European Research Council’s (ERC) "IDEAS" Programme, in Support of Frontier Research under contract/number ERC–2–9–AdG228254–DARE
文摘When seismic thrust faults emerge on the ground surface, they are particularly damaging to buildings, bridges and lifelines that lie on the rupture path. To protect a structure founded on a rigid raft, a thick diaphragm-type soil bentonite wall (SBW) is installed in front of and near the foundation, at sufficient depth to intercept the propagating fault rupture. Extensive numerical analyses, verified against reduced-scale (1 g) split box physical model tests, reveal that such a wall, thanks to its high deformability and low shear resistance, "absorbs" the compressive thrust of the fault and forces the rupture to deviate upwards along its length. As a consequence, the foundation is left essentially intact. The effectiveness of SBW is demonstrated to depend on the exact location of the emerging fault and the magnitude of the fault offset. When the latter is large, the unprotected foundation experiences intolerable rigid-body rotation even if the foundation structural distress is not substantial.
文摘Santo Domingo de Heredia, Costa Rica is a county facing serious risks from natural hazards, specifically flooding, earthquakes, volcanic activity and landslides. In order to inform disaster risk reduction efforts and improve the safety and well-being of local residents, this article assessed these natural hazards using a geographical approach. First, we described the four hazards based on a review of reports from previous emergencies, scientific papers and newspaper articles. Second, we integrated spatial data on each hazard to create a hazard density index for the county at the level of the census unit (n = 140). Results demonstrate that river flooding has caused the most damage of the four hazards in recent times. Both seismic and volcanic risks (specifically ash fall from volcanic eruptions) affect the entire area of Santo Domingo. Landslides have affected localized, settled areas of steep river canyons in the southern part of the county. In general, the highest density of hazards is located in the southern reaches of Santo Domingo. As such, we recommend that local authorities concentrate their management efforts in that area.
基金Foundation item: Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (104065)Social Public Welfare Special Foundation of the Na-tional Research Institutes (2005DIB3J119).
文摘Potential sources are simplified as point sources or linear sources in current probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methods. Focus size of large earthquakes is considerable, and fault rupture attitudes may have great influence upon the seismic hazard of a site which is near the source. Under this circumstance, it is unreasonable to use the simplified potential source models in the PSHA, so a potential rupture surface model is proposed in this paper. Adopting this model, we analyze the seismic hazard near the Chelungpu fault that generated the Chi-Chi (Jiji) earthquake with magnitude 7.6 and the following conclusions are reached. (1) This model is reasonable on the base of focal mechanism, especially for sites near potential earthquakes with large magnitude; (2) The attitudes of potential rupture surfaces have great influence on the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and seismic zoning.