Based on the existing materials of fault segmentation,characteristic earthquakes,and their empirical relationships,we calculated the parameters of the fault segments,such as length,width,magnitudes of characteristic e...Based on the existing materials of fault segmentation,characteristic earthquakes,and their empirical relationships,we calculated the parameters of the fault segments,such as length,width,magnitudes of characteristic earthquakes,etc.Constrained by GPS velocity field,the slip rates of these fault segments in depth were inversed using the 3-D half-space elastic dislocation model.As not all of the recurrence periods and co-seismic displacements of characteristic earthquakes are known,we selected the fault segments with these two parameters known and calculated the accumulation rate of average co-seismic displacement,which shows the faults' slip rate in seismogenic layer.Then,the slip rate in depth was compared with that in seismogenic layer,the relationship between them was obtained,and this relationship was used to get the recurrence periods and co-seismic displacements of all fault segments.After the studies above,we calculated the co-seismic deformation field of all the earthquakes larger than M s 6.8 from AD 1700 one by one and inversed the potential displacement in the co-seismic deformation field.Then,we divided the potential displacement by the slip rate from GPS inversion to get the influences of these fault segments,added the influences into the elapsed time of the characteristic earthquakes,and obtained the earthquake hazard degree of all the segments we studied in the form of the ratio of elapsed time to recurrence period;so,we name the ratio as the Impending Earthquake Risk (IER).Historical earthquake cases show that the fault segment is in safety when the IER is less than 1 but in danger after the IER becomes larger than 1.In 2009,the IER is larger than 1 on the following segments,1.35 on the Tagong segment of Xianshuihe fault,1 on the Menggu-Dongchuan segment,1.04 on the Dongchuan-Xundian segment,and 1.09 on the Yiliang-Chengjiang segment of Xiaojiang fault.展开更多
On November 14, 2001, an extraordinarily large earthquake (MS8.1) occurred on the Hoh Sai Hu segment of the Eastern Kunlun Fault, in the northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The seismogenic fault, the Hoh Sai Hu segment,...On November 14, 2001, an extraordinarily large earthquake (MS8.1) occurred on the Hoh Sai Hu segment of the Eastern Kunlun Fault, in the northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The seismogenic fault, the Hoh Sai Hu segment, is a left-lateral fault with a high slip rate in geological history, with the average slip rate reaching(14.8±2.8)mm/a since the late Pleistocene. Different slip rates of the Hoh Sai Hu segment can affect fault motion in the future. Therefore, this paper analyzes the effect of different slip rates and different initial friction coefficients on the fault plane of the Hoh Sai Hu segment of the eastern Kunlun Fault on the rupture behaviors of the fault. In this research, we apply the single degree of spring block model controlled by the rateand state-dependent frictional constitutive laws. Using the fault dislocation model and based on ancient earthquake research, historical earthquakes data and the achievements of previous researchers, we obtained the parameters of this model. Through numerical simulation of the rupturing motion of the Hoh Sai Hu segment in the next 6500 years under different slip rates, we find that a faster annual slip rate will shorten the recurrence interval of the earthquake. For example, the earthquake recurrence interval is 2100a at a slip rate of 0.014m/a, which agrees with previous research, but, the recurrence interval will be 1000~1500a and 2100～2500a, corresponding to the slip rates of 0.018m/a and 0.008m/a, respectively. The fault slip rate has no regular effect on the coseismic slip rate and fault displacement in an earthquake. The initial friction coefficient on the fault surface has an effect on the earthquake recurrence interval. A smaller initial friction coefficient will lengthen the earthquake recurrence interval. At the same time, the smaller initial friction coefficient will lead to larger slip rates and fault displacement when earthquakes occur.展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2008CB425704)the Open Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics (Grant No. LED2009B02)
文摘Based on the existing materials of fault segmentation,characteristic earthquakes,and their empirical relationships,we calculated the parameters of the fault segments,such as length,width,magnitudes of characteristic earthquakes,etc.Constrained by GPS velocity field,the slip rates of these fault segments in depth were inversed using the 3-D half-space elastic dislocation model.As not all of the recurrence periods and co-seismic displacements of characteristic earthquakes are known,we selected the fault segments with these two parameters known and calculated the accumulation rate of average co-seismic displacement,which shows the faults' slip rate in seismogenic layer.Then,the slip rate in depth was compared with that in seismogenic layer,the relationship between them was obtained,and this relationship was used to get the recurrence periods and co-seismic displacements of all fault segments.After the studies above,we calculated the co-seismic deformation field of all the earthquakes larger than M s 6.8 from AD 1700 one by one and inversed the potential displacement in the co-seismic deformation field.Then,we divided the potential displacement by the slip rate from GPS inversion to get the influences of these fault segments,added the influences into the elapsed time of the characteristic earthquakes,and obtained the earthquake hazard degree of all the segments we studied in the form of the ratio of elapsed time to recurrence period;so,we name the ratio as the Impending Earthquake Risk (IER).Historical earthquake cases show that the fault segment is in safety when the IER is less than 1 but in danger after the IER becomes larger than 1.In 2009,the IER is larger than 1 on the following segments,1.35 on the Tagong segment of Xianshuihe fault,1 on the Menggu-Dongchuan segment,1.04 on the Dongchuan-Xundian segment,and 1.09 on the Yiliang-Chengjiang segment of Xiaojiang fault.
基金jointly sponsored by the Special Program of Basic R&D Fund,Institute of Geology,CEAthe Seismic Industry Research Program,CEA( 200808018)
文摘On November 14, 2001, an extraordinarily large earthquake (MS8.1) occurred on the Hoh Sai Hu segment of the Eastern Kunlun Fault, in the northern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The seismogenic fault, the Hoh Sai Hu segment, is a left-lateral fault with a high slip rate in geological history, with the average slip rate reaching(14.8±2.8)mm/a since the late Pleistocene. Different slip rates of the Hoh Sai Hu segment can affect fault motion in the future. Therefore, this paper analyzes the effect of different slip rates and different initial friction coefficients on the fault plane of the Hoh Sai Hu segment of the eastern Kunlun Fault on the rupture behaviors of the fault. In this research, we apply the single degree of spring block model controlled by the rateand state-dependent frictional constitutive laws. Using the fault dislocation model and based on ancient earthquake research, historical earthquakes data and the achievements of previous researchers, we obtained the parameters of this model. Through numerical simulation of the rupturing motion of the Hoh Sai Hu segment in the next 6500 years under different slip rates, we find that a faster annual slip rate will shorten the recurrence interval of the earthquake. For example, the earthquake recurrence interval is 2100a at a slip rate of 0.014m/a, which agrees with previous research, but, the recurrence interval will be 1000~1500a and 2100～2500a, corresponding to the slip rates of 0.018m/a and 0.008m/a, respectively. The fault slip rate has no regular effect on the coseismic slip rate and fault displacement in an earthquake. The initial friction coefficient on the fault surface has an effect on the earthquake recurrence interval. A smaller initial friction coefficient will lengthen the earthquake recurrence interval. At the same time, the smaller initial friction coefficient will lead to larger slip rates and fault displacement when earthquakes occur.
