Implications for fault reactivation and seismicity induced by hydraulic fracturing

Evaluating the physical mechanisms that link hydraulic fracturing(HF) operations to induced earthquakes and the anticipated form of the resulting events is significant in informing subsurface fluid injection operations. Current understanding supports the overriding role of the effective stress magnitude in triggering earthquakes, while the impact of change rate of effective stress has not been systematically addressed. In this work, a modified critical stiffness was brought up to investigate the likelihood, impact,and mitigation of induced seismicity during and after hydraulic fracturing by developing a poroelastic model based on rate-and-state fraction law and linear stability analysis. In the new criterion, the change rate of effective stress was considered a key variable to explore the evolution of this criterion and hence the likelihood of instability slip of fault. A coupled fluid flow-deformation model was used to represent the entire hydraulic fracturing process in COMSOL Multiphysics. The possibility of triggering an earthquake throughout the entire hydraulic fracturing process, from fracturing to cessation, was investigated considering different fault locations, orientations, and positions along the fault. The competition between the effects of the magnitude and change rate of effective stress was notable at each fracturing stage. The effective stress magnitude is a significant controlling factor during fracturing events, with the change rate dominating when fracturing is suddenly started or stopped. Instability dominates when the magnitude of the effective stress increases(constant injection at each fracturing stage) and the change rate of effective stress decreases(the injection process is suddenly stopped). Fracturing with a high injection rate, a fault adjacent to the hydraulic fracturing location and the position of the junction between the reservoir and fault are important to reduce the Coulomb failure stress(CFS) and enhance the critical stiffness as the significant disturbance of stresses at these positions in the coupled process. Therefore,notable attention should be given to the injection rate during fracturing, fault position, and position along faults as important considerations to help reduce the potential for induced seismicity. Our model was verified and confirmed using the case of the Longmaxi Formation in the Sichuan Basin, China, in which the reported microseismic data were correlated with high critical stiffness values. This work supplies new thoughts of the seismic risk associated with HF engineering.

Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis Method of Armored Equipment Based on Testability Growth

In view of the low level testability of armored equipment,the important significance of armored equipment testability growth is discussed in this paper.The failure mode effects and criticality analysis( FMECA) method to realize testability growth is introduced.Centering on the testability growth demands of new armored equipment,the deficiencies of traditional FMECA are analyzed.And an enhanced FMECA( EFMECA) method is proposed.The method increases the analysis contents,combines the information before the failure occurrence and impending failure modes together organically.Then the failure symptoms is analyzed,the failure modes and effects is determined,and the state development trend is predicted.Finally,the application of EFMECA method is illustrated by the example of the failure mode of typical armored equipment engine.

Seismic hazard assessment of Tehran,Iran with emphasis on near-fault rupture directivity effects

Many destructive earthquakes happened in Tehran, Iran in the last centuries. The existence of active faults like the North Tehran is the main cause of seismicity in this city. According to past investigations, it is estimated that in the scenario of activation of the North Tehran fault, many structures in Tehran will collapse. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near field rupture directivity effects of this fault into the seismic hazard assessment of important sites in Tehran. In this study, using calculations coded in MATLAB, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis （PSHA） is conducted for an important site in Tehran. Following that, deaggregation technique is performed on PSHA and the contribution of seis- mic scenarios to hazard is obtained in the range of distance and magnitude. After identifying the North Tehran fault as the most hazardous source affecting the site in 10000-year return period, rupture directivity effects of this fault is incorporated into the seismic hazard assessment using Somerville et al. （1997） model with broadband approach and Shahi and Baker （2011） model with narrowband approach. The results show that the narrowband approach caused a 27% increase in the peak of response spectrum in 10000-year return period compared with the conventional PSHA. Therefore, it is necessary to incorporate the near fault rupture directivity effects into the higher levels of seismic hazard assessment attributed to important sites.

Pressure Transient Analysis of an Intersecting Rollover Faulted Crest Boundary in Niger Delta Oil Field

Pressure transient analysis has been extensively applied to detect anomalies in a reservoir system.These anomalies may be presented in the form of an intersection of the crestal and the antithetic fault associated with a growth fault.Interpretation of this fault can only be achieved through the use of pressure transient analysis.The objective of the research work is to analyze and test the faulted crest,depth of the anticline structure and examine the near well bore conditions in order to evaluate whether the well productivity is governed by wellbore effects(skin effects+well bore effect)or the reservoir at large.A case study of a well in the Niger delta is considered with a series of build up test carried out in two intervals of both upper and lower gauge readings.In this study,a computer aided design which uses a pressure derivative approach is used in this work to match the pressure derivative of an intersecting fault(angle)model to the field data,and the model assumes the characteristics of the reservoir.Based on the result of the interpreted data,simulation is done by using a non linear regression method(least square).The simulated data interpreted are achieved through the regression coefficient which provides a quantitative measure of the agreement between field data and the model.In conclusion,the best cases are taken from all the results and a nodal analysis is performed to diagnose the inflow performance of the well through the transient analysis in order to optimize the recovery of the oilfield.

Semi-analytical solution for drained expansion analysis of a hollow cylinder of critical state soils

The expansion of a thick-walled hollow cylinder in soil is of non-self-similar nature that the stress/deformation paths are not the same for different soil material points.As a result,this problem cannot be solved by the common self-similar-based similarity techniques.This paper proposes a novel,exact solution for rigorous drained expansion analysis of a hollow cylinder of critical state soils.Considering stress-dependent elastic moduli of soils,new analytical stress and displacement solutions for the nonself-similar problem are developed taking the small strain assumption in the elastic zone.In the plastic zone,the cavity expansion response is formulated into a set of first-order partial differential equations(PDEs)with the combination use of Eulerian and Lagrangian descriptions,and a novel solution algorithm is developed to efficiently solve this complex boundary value problem.The solution is presented in a general form and thus can be useful for a wide range of soils.With the new solution,the non-self-similar nature induced by the finite outer boundary is clearly demonstrated and highlighted,which is found to be greatly different to the behaviour of cavity expansion in infinite soil mass.The present solution may serve as a benchmark for verifying the performance of advanced numerical techniques with critical state soil models and be used to capture the finite boundary effect for pressuremeter tests in small-sized calibration chambers.

Analysis of Computer Network Reliability and Criticality: Technique and Features

The paper describes modern technologies of Computer Network Reliability. Software tool is developed to estimate of the CCN critical failure probability (construction of a criticality matrix) by results of the FME(C)A-technique. The internal information factors, such as collisions and congestion of switchboards, routers and servers, influence on a network reliability and safety (besides of hardware and software reliability and external extreme factors). The means and features of Failures Modes and Effects (Critical) Analysis (FME(C)A) for reliability and criticality analysis of corporate computer networks (CCN) are considered. The examples of FME(C)A-Technique for structured cable system (SCS) is given. We also discuss measures that can be used for criticality analysis and possible means of criticality reduction. Finally, we describe a technique and basic principles of dependable development and deployment of computer networks that are based on results of FMECA analysis and procedures of optimization choice of means for fault-tolerance ensuring.

System failure analysis based on DEMATEL–ISM and FMECA

A new method of system failure analysis was proposed. First, considering the relationships between the failure subsystems,the decision making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL) method was used to calculate the degree of correlation between the failure subsystems, analyze the combined effect of related failures, and obtain the degree of correlation by using the directed graph and matrix operations. Then, the interpretative structural modeling(ISM) method was combined to intuitively show the logical relationship of many failure subsystems and their influences on each other by using multilevel hierarchical structure model and obtaining the critical subsystems. Finally, failure mode effects and criticality analysis(FMECA) was used to perform a qualitative hazard analysis of critical subsystems, determine the critical failure mode, and clarify the direction of reliability improvement.Through an example, the result demonstrates that the proposed method can be efficiently applied to system failure analysis problems.

考虑地震动衰减特性的西安市断层近场区域划分

相较于普通远场地震动,近断层地震动破坏特性更为复杂,引发的危害也更为严重。西安市及周边地区存在多条大型正断层,对其城市建设规划隐患重大。本文以PEER(美国太平洋抗震研究中心)正断层地震动记录为主,使用参数标准化、均值化及汉宁窗平滑化等方法对地震动参数进行了处理,然后根据统计回归分析及最小二乘法线性拟合确定了近正断层地震动的临界断层距,并据此划分了西安近断层地震动区域范围。结果表明:西安周边正断层临界断层距在10~17 km之间,且水平振动的近断层区域范围总是稍大于竖向振动;从西安外环高速内近断层地震动区域划分结果可以看出,西安城区大部分为近断层地震动区域。研究结果可为西安地震小区划及抗震减灾提供一定的科学依据。

温湿度联合作用下软岩粗粒料三轴剪切力学特性研究

软岩粗粒料具有风化程度高、易破碎等特点,其力学特性易受温湿环境的影响。利用自主研制的温湿控制粗粒料大型三轴仪开展了一系列控制温湿度的软岩粗粒料三轴剪切试验,探究了温湿度对软岩粗粒料剪切强度、剪切变形、颗粒破碎及临界状态的影响规律。研究发现:(1)软岩粗粒料的力学行为受温湿度影响显著,随着温湿度的升高,其峰值剪切强度降低,剪缩变形量增加,颗粒破碎程度增大,p-q空间内的临界状态线向下旋转,同时e-(p/pa)^(ξ)空间内的临界状态线向下平移;(2)温湿度对力学特性的影响在低围压条件下更显著,随着围压的升高,温湿度引起的差异性变小。(3)基于不同温湿度作用下的颗粒破碎等效对应关系,实现了不同温湿工况下颗粒破碎及临界状态试验规律的归一化,为建立统一考虑温湿度影响的本构模型提供思路。

核级典型电动截止阀FMECA及试验验证

作为核反应堆系统中的关键能动设备,阀门在核反应堆系统中起着至关重要的作用,其安全性直接决定着核反应堆安全及人员安全。本文针对安注系统电动截止阀,基于使用特点对其开展故障模式、影响及危害性分析(FMECA),找出其结构中潜在的故障模式及其原因与影响,并根据失效分析结果有针对性地开展寿命试验,以激发潜在的故障,验证分析结果并获得该阀最为典型的失效模式。

基于主动探测原理的直流配电线路短路故障测距

为克服对端系统助增作用的影响,实现直流配电线路短路故障的准确测距,提出一种主动探测式的故障测距原理。故障发生后,设计限流策略限制短路电流,进而切换至主动探测控制策略下,向直流线路注入特征频率探测信号。根据特征频率下故障等效电路的激励与响应特性,构建故障测距方程,实现了基于故障分析法的单端量故障测距。基于PSCAD电磁暂态仿真软件搭建了对应模型,仿真验证了不同故障位置和故障过渡电阻情况下测距原理的性能,采用特征频率探测信号构建测距方程,克服了对端电源助增作用的影响,测距结果的相对误差在0.5%以内。

二维饱和沉积盆地地震动响应非线性分析

沉积盆地对地震动具有明显的放大效应。利用ABAQUS软件及二次开发平台,编写了基于Davidenkov骨架曲线的VUMAT子程序,对饱和沉积盆地进行了非线性反应模拟。建立不同基岩面坡度的二维T型沉积盆地,输入4条不同频谱特性及幅值的近断层地震波,研究不同盆地基岩面坡度、饱和介质特性、地震波强度等因素对沉积盆地非线性反应规律的影响。研究结果表明,地震波作用可造成饱和沉积盆地发生局部液化,地震波强度越大,液化区分布范围越广,地表处出现了永久塑性变形;地震波强度的增大导致地表土层发生液化的时间提前,且下层土的液化会减弱地震波的传播速度,导致上层地表土发生液化的时间延后;盆地内地表最不利位置随着基岩面坡度的增大逐渐向中心处移动,不同工况下速度峰值放大系数为1.18~3.33。

近直下型断层的地铁车站结构地震响应

目前在近断层场地中地下地铁车站抗震性能水平认识方面相对匮乏,鉴于此,提出了一种考虑发震断层-地下结构全过程地震响应的IBE-FEM联合求解分析方法。首先,基于运动学有限断层模型,采用间接边界元方法(IBE)求解直下型走滑断层错动作用下上覆软土沉积层场地内的地震波场,并验证了有限元法(FEM)间接求解地震波场的可行性;在此基础上,通过建立土-地下连续墙-主体结构非线性静-动力耦合的二维整体时域有限元模型,初步探究了断层-软土场地耦合效应对地铁车站抗震性能的影响规律。结果表明:在近断层区域,地铁车站结构震害具有典型的断层上盘效应和震害集中效应,更容易进入塑性变形发展阶段;在远断层区域,由于断层-场地效应耦合作用,断层下盘场地内地震波场衰减较缓,其内车站结构整体震害略大于断层上盘。本文研究方法为近断层场地条件下地下结构地震响应分析开辟新思路,也可为相关场地区域内的地下结构抗震设计提供技术参考。

基于空-频域联合滤波的列车轴承轨旁声学诊断

现有的列车轴承轨旁声学诊断方法多集中在多普勒效应去除、空间滤波器优化等方面,忽视了轨旁环境中存在的大量冲击性噪声及循环平稳性噪声的影响。针对此问题,文中提出了一种波束形成和目标频带选择结合的列车轴箱轴承轨旁声学诊断方法。该方法采用传声器阵列采集列车轴承阵列声信号,通过时域插值重采样方法校正信号畸变,使用波束形成空间域滤波器提取目标轴承方向信号,利用ICS2gram选取最优解调频带并提取带通信号,对带通信号进行包络分析实现轴承诊断。实验结果表明,该方法能够在轨旁声场环境下有效避免冲击性噪声和循环平稳性噪声带来的影响,准确提取目标轴承信号并诊断出轴承故障,相较于现有方法表现出了更好的效果。

一种基于贝叶斯网络的燃气轮机故障诊断方法

本文针对现役电站燃气轮机故障样本少,以往的故障诊断方法依赖于海量的带有故障标签的数据,难以在实际生产中取得预期的诊断效果的现象,提出了一种通过利用贝叶斯网络进行反事实推理来识别燃气轮机故障原因的方法。本文首先介绍了贝叶斯网络的基本原理,然后将故障模式和影响分析及故障树技术应用于贝叶斯网络的搭建,最后通过实际案例分析,验证了这一方法的有效性。本文的故障诊断方法可以根据燃气轮机在运行中出现的异常现象分析出可能的故障和相应的故障原因,帮助运行及检修人员及时发现和排除故障,并且弥补了基于数据驱动的故障诊断方法缺少专业知识支撑的缺陷,为燃气轮机的故障诊断提供了一种灵活、高效、可靠的新选择。

Reliability Analysis of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Flight Control System Based on Reliability Analysis Technologies

The unmanned aerial vehicles( UAV) has been becoming more and more important in the aviation industry.Despite the superior performance and advanced technology,major accident of UAV happens frequently due to the impact of their systems,long distance of remote control and skill of manipulator technology.According to the application of engineering application,failure mode effects and criticality analysis( FMECA),failure reporting analysis and corrective action comprehensive analysis systems( FRACAS)and fault tree analysis( FTA)( 3 F) were combined.And also a set of user-friendly,more time,more efficient and accurate reliability analysis system were explored.

基于故障传播模型的硬件安全性与可靠性验证方法

大规模集成电路正面临着诸如设计脆弱性、侧信道、硬件木马等安全漏洞的威胁。传统的功能测试验证方法无法遍历所有的输入空间,同样无法检测侧信道安全漏洞。现有的形式化验证方法关注硬件设计的等价性和功能的正确性,难以满足安全性和可靠性验证需求。研究面向安全性和可靠性验证的形式化模型,形成有效的硬件安全性与可靠性形式化验证方法。该方法能够从门级对集成电路进行建模,生成细粒度的形式化模型,实现对安全性与可靠性的形式化验证,可以捕捉硬件设计中潜在的安全隐患。实验结果表明该验证方法对硬件设计中存在的侧信道和硬件木马导致的信息泄露和篡改有很好的检测效果。

基于家用轮式助行器的FMECA及其失效数据分析

中国人口老龄化速度的逐渐加快导致对助行器的需求加大。可靠性是助行器的重要属性之一,然而目前助行器的可靠性研究较少。该文以家用轮式助行器为例,对其展开故障模式、影响及其危害性分析。通过收集、整理和分析26种故障模式,得到影响其可靠性关键模块为坐姿-站姿转换系统。针对此关键模块,该文开展了故障数据的采集及分析,检验其寿命分布符合对数正态分布模型,该模块可靠寿命t_(0.9)的0.95置信下限为2489.4 h。该研究针对家用轮式助行器开展的可靠性分析可以为其他有源医疗设备的可靠性分析提供思路,并推动形成符合我国医疗器械监管法规要求的可靠性研究审评要点,供业界参考。

融合贝叶斯网络与变权AHP的气量调控系统安全风险动态分析方法

针对往复压缩机组无级气量调控系统故障率较高、对机组安全运行影响大,而现有系统运行风险评价方法难以完成实时、定量分析的问题,提出一种融合贝叶斯网络与变权AHP的气量调控系统安全风险动态分析方法。建立了包含故障类型、故障模式与监测信号的贝叶斯网络模型,得到故障实时发生概率;基于变权层次分析法建立了故障危害性半定量分析模型,计算故障模式影响量化指标;进一步,修正了FMEA方法故障模式风险计算公式,引入故障发生概率,提出了历史故障与实时运行风险计算方法。以实际故障案例数据进行测试验证,结果表明,提出的新方法可量化计算机组实时与历史运行风险,设置归一化的实时运行风险阈值为0.5,以判定检修必要性。研究成果可为往复压缩机及气量调控系统检维修计划的制定提供量化指标。