The fertility rate of China has shown an overall decline trend,so the fully understanding of the factors affecting China’s fertility intention has become the focus of the research.Based on CFPS2020 data,the study sub...The fertility rate of China has shown an overall decline trend,so the fully understanding of the factors affecting China’s fertility intention has become the focus of the research.Based on CFPS2020 data,the study subjects were women of age between 20 and 49,who were born after the 1970s and were influenced by the family planning policy.Then,SMOTE-Catboost algorithm was used to construct a model.The results show that:(1)For the women’s willingness to have multiple children,the SMOTE-Catboost algorithm is more effective than the Catboost algorithm,and the classification accuracy is improved by 8 percentage points.(2)The factors influencing women’s willingness to have multiple children were ranked by social status,intergenerational care,education level and age.Women with high social status are more willing to have multiple children;All-day intergenerational care has a positive effect on women’s willingness to have multiple children.And women’s willingness to have multiple children declines with the rise of education level but increases with age.(3)Combined with the CFPS2018 data,the influencing factors changed over time.In 2018,the important factors related to women’s willingness to have multiple children were mainly related to economic,within which the income ranked locally is the most important one.In 2020,the most important factor changed to be social status while economic became less important.展开更多
The 13 th Five-Year Plan(2016─2020), with the balanced development of population being the core element, is crucial for China. The superimposed effect of an aging population and low birthrate leading to a reduction i...The 13 th Five-Year Plan(2016─2020), with the balanced development of population being the core element, is crucial for China. The superimposed effect of an aging population and low birthrate leading to a reduction in the labor supply would have a fundamental influence on the long term balanced development of China's population, implying that China's population policy must be adjusted. This paper argues that a gradual relaxation of the family-planning policy adjustments accords with the original intention of the population policy design and development direction. The universal second-child policy is the logical results of the adjustment and improvement of China's family-planning policy, and is designed to bring about positive effects on future demographic and economic development, particularly in sustaining the long term balanced development of China's population, easing the marriage squeeze, extending the demographic dividend, and delaying the population aging process. China needs to develop and improve support and governance systems for fully implementing the universal second-child policy, realizing the policy transition from rewarding one-child families to population security and the modern transition of governance systems and capacity to a universal second-child policy.展开更多
More than three decades after its implementation, the family planning policy in China has led to a swiftly aging society with a shrinking young population. Despite the launch of the two-child policy in 2015, there wer...More than three decades after its implementation, the family planning policy in China has led to a swiftly aging society with a shrinking young population. Despite the launch of the two-child policy in 2015, there were 17.23 million births on the Chinese mainland in 2017, a decline of 630,000 over the previous year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. If this trend continues, a nosedive in births in the coming years will be inevitable.展开更多
The relaxation of fertility policy in China makes it possible to observe and under-stand the patterns of childbearing behavior in low fertility settings.This paper takes Shanghai,a city with ultra-low fertility over t...The relaxation of fertility policy in China makes it possible to observe and under-stand the patterns of childbearing behavior in low fertility settings.This paper takes Shanghai,a city with ultra-low fertility over the long term,as an example to analyze families who have had a second child since the adjustment of China’s fertility policy.The paper reports the major results of a survey of couples with Shanghai house-hold registration(hukou)who have had a second child,and makes comparisons with other relevant survey.It seeks to answer the question"Who are the couples giving birth to second child?"The results show that most of the women who have had a second child after implementation of the Selective Two-child Policy in 2014 were born in the late 1970s and 1980s.Couples who had higher education levels and higher incomes,and in which the woman worked as a full-time housewife or worked in a less intense job with scheduling flexibility were more likely to have a second child.The ability of a couple to get help from their own parents for childcare,and the gender of the first child also affected the decision to have a second child.This study reveals that couples who have a second child tend to be those with better than average childcare resources.This suggests that formulating reasonable public poli-cies aimed at reducing the cost of childbearing and childrearing would be an effec-tive way to further release fertility potential.展开更多
基金the research project of Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Statistics (number: KZ0072421051).
文摘The fertility rate of China has shown an overall decline trend,so the fully understanding of the factors affecting China’s fertility intention has become the focus of the research.Based on CFPS2020 data,the study subjects were women of age between 20 and 49,who were born after the 1970s and were influenced by the family planning policy.Then,SMOTE-Catboost algorithm was used to construct a model.The results show that:(1)For the women’s willingness to have multiple children,the SMOTE-Catboost algorithm is more effective than the Catboost algorithm,and the classification accuracy is improved by 8 percentage points.(2)The factors influencing women’s willingness to have multiple children were ranked by social status,intergenerational care,education level and age.Women with high social status are more willing to have multiple children;All-day intergenerational care has a positive effect on women’s willingness to have multiple children.And women’s willingness to have multiple children declines with the rise of education level but increases with age.(3)Combined with the CFPS2018 data,the influencing factors changed over time.In 2018,the important factors related to women’s willingness to have multiple children were mainly related to economic,within which the income ranked locally is the most important one.In 2020,the most important factor changed to be social status while economic became less important.
文摘The 13 th Five-Year Plan(2016─2020), with the balanced development of population being the core element, is crucial for China. The superimposed effect of an aging population and low birthrate leading to a reduction in the labor supply would have a fundamental influence on the long term balanced development of China's population, implying that China's population policy must be adjusted. This paper argues that a gradual relaxation of the family-planning policy adjustments accords with the original intention of the population policy design and development direction. The universal second-child policy is the logical results of the adjustment and improvement of China's family-planning policy, and is designed to bring about positive effects on future demographic and economic development, particularly in sustaining the long term balanced development of China's population, easing the marriage squeeze, extending the demographic dividend, and delaying the population aging process. China needs to develop and improve support and governance systems for fully implementing the universal second-child policy, realizing the policy transition from rewarding one-child families to population security and the modern transition of governance systems and capacity to a universal second-child policy.
文摘More than three decades after its implementation, the family planning policy in China has led to a swiftly aging society with a shrinking young population. Despite the launch of the two-child policy in 2015, there were 17.23 million births on the Chinese mainland in 2017, a decline of 630,000 over the previous year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. If this trend continues, a nosedive in births in the coming years will be inevitable.
基金supported by 2019 The National Social Sciences Fund of China(19CRK017):“Study on the new characteristics,causes,influences and trends of marriage behavior of residents in big cities of China”.
文摘The relaxation of fertility policy in China makes it possible to observe and under-stand the patterns of childbearing behavior in low fertility settings.This paper takes Shanghai,a city with ultra-low fertility over the long term,as an example to analyze families who have had a second child since the adjustment of China’s fertility policy.The paper reports the major results of a survey of couples with Shanghai house-hold registration(hukou)who have had a second child,and makes comparisons with other relevant survey.It seeks to answer the question"Who are the couples giving birth to second child?"The results show that most of the women who have had a second child after implementation of the Selective Two-child Policy in 2014 were born in the late 1970s and 1980s.Couples who had higher education levels and higher incomes,and in which the woman worked as a full-time housewife or worked in a less intense job with scheduling flexibility were more likely to have a second child.The ability of a couple to get help from their own parents for childcare,and the gender of the first child also affected the decision to have a second child.This study reveals that couples who have a second child tend to be those with better than average childcare resources.This suggests that formulating reasonable public poli-cies aimed at reducing the cost of childbearing and childrearing would be an effec-tive way to further release fertility potential.
