A scoring model based on plasma fibrinogen concentration for predicting recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation

Background:We investigated the prognostic value of preoperative fibrinogen levels in hepatocellular carcinoma patients receiving liver transplantation by building a scoring model for predicting tumor recurrence.Methods:Cox regression analysis was used to identify factors that predicted tumor recurrence,and a scoring model was generated by assigning a value of 0 or 1 to each independent risk factor.The cut-off value for fibrinogen was determined by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.Results:Preoperative fibrinogen concentration was significantly higher in patients with vs.without tumor recurrence(3.27 g/L vs.2.34 g/L,P<0.001),with vs.without macrovascular invasion(3.54 g/L vs.2.82 g/L,P?0.007),and with>400 vs.400 ng/mL plasma alpha-fetoprotein concentration(3.43 g/L vs.2.76 g/L,P?0.007).The 5-year disease-free survival rate was significantly lower for patients with elevated(2.68 g/L)vs.normal(<2.68 g/L)fibrinogen concentration(37.2%vs.78.4%,P?0.001).Macrovascular invasion,>3 tumor nodules,and elevated fibrinogen concentration were independent risk factors for tumor recurrence.A scoring model based on these risk factors predicted recurrence with a sensitivity of 68.3%and a specificity of 87.5%.Conclusions:Elevated preoperative plasma fibrinogen concentration is associated with tumor recurrence in HCC patients after liver transplantation.A new scoring model predicted recurrence with good sensitivity and specificity.