A Statistical Study of Magnetic Flux Emergence in Solar Active Regions Prior to Strongest Flares

Using the data on magnetic field maps and continuum intensity for Solar Cycles 23 and 24,we explored 100 active regions(ARs)that produced M5.0 or stronger flares.We focus on the presence/absence of the emergence of magnetic flux in these ARs 2-3 days before the strong flare onset.We found that 29 ARs in the sample emerged monotonically amidst quiet-Sun.A major emergence of a new magnetic flux within a pre-existing AR yielding the formation of a complex flare-productive configuration was observed in another 24 cases.For 30 ARs,an insignificant(in terms of the total magnetic flux of pre-existing AR)emergence of a new magnetic flux within the pre-existing magnetic configuration was observed;for some of them the emergence resulted in a formation of a configuration with a small δ-sunspot;11 out of 100 ARs exhibited no signatures of magnetic flux emergence during the entire interval of observation.In six cases the emergence was in progress when the AR appeared on the Eastern limb,so that the classification and timing of emergence were not possible.We conclude that the recent flux emergence is not a necessary and/or sufficient condition for strong flaring of an AR.The flux emergence rate of flare-productive ARs analyzed here was compared with that of flare-quiet ARs analyzed in our previous studies.We revealed that the flare-productive ARs tend to display faster emergence than the flare-quiet ones do.

Statistical Study of the Geoeffectivity of Halo Coronal Mass Ejections Associated with X-Class Flares during Solar Cycles 23 and 24

By analysing a long series of data (1996-2019), we show that solar cycle 23 was more marked by violent solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) compared to solar cycle 24. In particular, the halo coronal mass ejections associated with X-class flares appear to be among the most energetic events in solar activity given the size of the flares, the speed of the CMEs and the intense geomagnetic storms they produce. Out of eighty-six (86) X-class halo CMEs, thirty-seven (37) or 43% are highly geoeffective;twenty-four (24) or approximately 28% are moderately geoeffective and twenty-five (25) or 29% are not geoeffective. Over the two solar cycles (1996 to 2019), 71% of storms were geoeffective and 29% were not. For solar cycle 23, about 78% of storms were geoeffective, while for solar cycle 24, about 56% were geoeffective. For the statistical study based on speed, 85 halo CMEs associated with X-class flares were selected because the CME of 6 December 2006 has no recorded speed value. For both solar cycles, 75.29% of the halo CMEs associated with X-class flares have a speed greater than 1000 km/s. The study showed that 42.18% of halo (X) CMEs with speeds above 1000 km/s could cause intense geomagnetic disturbances. These results show the contribution (in terms of speed) of each class of halo (X) CMEs to the perturbation of the Earth’s magnetic field. Coronal mass ejections then become one of the key indicators of solar activity, especially as they affect the Earth.

New Cases of Superflares on Slowly Rotating Solar-type Stars and Large Amplitude Superflares in G-and M-type Main Sequence Stars

In our previous work,we searched for superflares on different types of stars while focusing on G-type dwarfs using entire Kepler data to study statistical properties of the occurrence rate of superflares.Using these new data,as a byproduct,we found 14 cases of superflare detection on 13 slowly rotating Sun-like stars with rotation periods of24.5–44 days.This result supports the earlier conclusion by others that the Sun may possibly undergo a surprise superflare.Moreover,we found 12 and seven new cases of detection of exceptionally large amplitude superflares on six and four main sequence stars of G-and M-type,respectively.No large-amplitude flares were detected in A,F or K main sequence stars.Here we present preliminary analysis of these cases.The superflare detection,i.e.,an estimation of flare energy,is based on a more accurate method compared to previous studies.We fit an exponential decay function to flare light curves and study the relation between e-folding decay time,τ,versus flare amplitude and flare energy.We find that for slowly rotating Sun-like stars,large values ofτcorrespond to small flare energies and small values ofτcorrespond to high flare energies considered.Similarly,τis large for small flare amplitudes andτis small for large amplitudes considered.However,there is no clear relation between these parameters for large amplitude superflares in the main sequence G-and M-type stars,as we could not establish clear functional dependence between the parameters via standard fitting algorithms.

LyαEmission Enhancement Associated with Soft X-Ray Microflares

Lyα(Lyα,1216 A)is the strongest emission line in the solar ultraviolet spectrum.In the present work,we obtained a Lyαenhancement catalog covering flares larger than B1 class from the GOES/EUVS data during 2010-2016.We focused on the 242 B-class events which are less investigated,however,show non-negligible Lyαemission enhancement.We found that on average the Lyαpeak of B-class flares is 0.85%stronger than the background.For the flare energetics,it is found that the weaker the soft X-ray(SXR)flare,the larger the ratio of the radiated energy in Lyαto SXR.Using the RHESSI data and multi-wavelength observations taken by SDO-AIA,we diagnose the thermal and non-thermal properties of several flares.Three case studies show that the coincidence of the Lyαpeak with the SXR time-derivative peak is not a sufficient condition of the nonthermal property of a Lyαmicroflare.The Lyαenhancement in the microflares may be caused by the nonthermal electron beams or/and thermal conduction.However for typeⅢevents,we found that the delay of the Lyαpeak with respect to the SXR peak can be attributed to either the Lyαemission from a filament erupted or the cooling of the thermal plasma in flare loops.Furthermore,interestingly the Lyαemission from filaments can not only occur in the decay phase of the flare,but also in the preflare phase.In this case,the Lyαemission was originated from an erupted filament which probably initiated the flare.

基于FLARESIM模拟的LNG接收站高架火炬设计选型研究

火炬系统是维护LNG接收站安全运行的重要设备。为了直观有效的掌握高架火炬热辐射对接收站内设施及周边环境的影响,评估火炬设置的合理性与安全性。在相关规范内容的基础上细化LNG接收站火炬系统处理能力的选型工况,其作为重要的输入条件,提高火炬设计规模及火炬系统设计的准确性,在此基础上进一步通过FLARESIM软件对高架火炬包括筒体尺寸、火炬头及火炬高度等进行模拟计算,在标准允许范围内有效识别并评估热辐射对接受点的影响,以确定高架火炬的设计参数及布置位置。一般说来,常规LNG接收站火炬泄放量最大组合工况为储罐漏热+大气压降低+控制阀失效或储罐漏热+大气压降低+卸船充装时的置换和闪蒸,并通过调整火炬位置及火炬筒高度可以满足热辐射的要求及气体扩散浓度要求。

A Confined Two-peaked Solar Flare Observed by EAST and SDO

The solar flare is one of the most violent explosions,and can disturb the near-Earth space weather.Except for commonly single-peaked solar flares in soft X-ray,some special flares show intriguing a two-peak feature that is deserved much more attentions.Here,we reported a confined two-peaked solar flare and analyzed the associated eruptions using high-quality observations from Educational Adaptive-optics Solar Telescope and Solar Dynamics Observatory.Before the flare,a magnetic flux rope(MFR)formed through partially tether-cutting reconnection between two sheared arches.The flare occurred after the MFR eruption that was confined by the overlying strong field.Interestingly,a small underlying filament immediately erupted,which was possibly destabilized by the flare ribbon.The successive eruptions were confirmed by the analysis of the emission measure and the reconnection fluxes.Therefore,we suggest that the two peaks of the confined solar flare are corresponding to two episodes of magnetic reconnection during the successive eruptions of the MFR and the underlying filament.

Magnetic field changes associated with three successive M-class solar flares on 2002 July 26

With an extensive analysis,we study the temporal evolution of magnetic flux during three successive M-class flares in two adjacent active regions：NOAA 10039 and 10044.The primary data are full disk longitudinal magnetograms observed by SOHO/MDI.All three flares are observed to be accompanied by magnetic flux changes.The changes occurred immediately or within 1 ～ 10 minutes after the starting time of the flares,indicating that the changes are obvious consequences of the solar flares.Although changes in many points are intrinsic in magnetic flux,for some sites,it is caused by a rapid expansion motion of magnetic flux.For the second flare,the associated change is more gradual compared with the ＇step-function＇ reported in literature.Furthermore,we use the data observed by the Imaging Vector Magnetograph（IVM） at Mees Solar Observatory to check possible line profile changes during the flares.The results from the IVM data confirm the flux changes obtained from the MDI data.A series of line profiles were obtained from the IVM＇s observations and analyzed for flux change sites.We find that the fluctuations in the width,depth and central wavelength of the lines are less than 5.0 even at the flare＇s core.No line profile change is observed during or after the flare.We conclude that the magnetic field changes associated with the three solar flares are not caused by flare emission.

海洋平台FLARESIM火炬模拟计算方法探讨

FLARESIM软件是一款用于火炬分析与设计的专业软件,它可以分析火炬泄放时产生的热辐射、温度和噪音,同时也可以进行可燃气体的扩散分析。作为火炬模拟与计算的专业软件,FLARESIM越来越多地应用于石油、石化行业。分析了几种常用的计算方法并以某海上平台为例,运用FLARESIM软件进行模拟,着重比较FLaresim API与Mixed方法对模拟结果的影响,研发了一套适用于一般项目的工程模拟方法。

Hepatic flares in chronic hepatitis C: Spontaneous exacerbation vs hepatotropic viruses superinfection

The hepatitis C virus(HCV)causes an acute infection that is frequently asymptomatic,but a spontaneous eradication of HCV infection occurs only in one-third of patients.The remaining two-thirds develop a chronic infection that,in most cases,shows an indolent course and a slow progression to the more advanced stagesof the illness.Nearly a quarter of cases with chronic hepatitis C(CHC)develop liver cirrhosis with or without hepatocellular carcinoma.The indolent course of the illness may be troubled by the occurrence of a hepatic flare,i.e.,a spontaneous acute exacerbation of CHC due to changes in the immune response,immunosuppression and subsequent restoration,and is characterized by an increase in serum aminotransferase values,a frequent deterioration in liver fibrosis and necroinflammation but also a high frequency of sustained viral response to pegylated interferon plus ribavirin treatment.A substantial increase in serum aminotransferase values during the clinical course of CHC may also be a consequence of a superinfection by other hepatotropic viruses,namely hepatitis B virus(HBV),HBV plus hepatitis D virus,hepatitis E virus,cytomegalovirus,particularly in geographical areas with high endemicity levels.The etiology of a hepatic flare in patients with CHC should always be defined to optimize follow-up procedures and clinical and therapeutic decisions.

Anomaly distribution of ionospheric total electron content responses to some solar flares

Previous studies have shown that the ionospheric responses to a solar flare are significantly dependent on the solar zenith angle(SZA):the ionospheric responses are negatively related to the SZAs.The largest enhancement in electron density always occurs around the subsolar point.However,from 2001 to 2014,the global distribution of total electron content(TEC)responses showed no obvious relationship between the increases in TEC and the SZA during some solar flares.During these solar flares,the greatest enhancements in TEC did not appear around the subsolar point,but rather far away from the subsolar point.The distribution of TEC enhancements showed larger TEC enhancements along the same latitude.The distribution of anomalous ionospheric responses to the solar flares was not structured the same as traveling ionospheric disturbances.This anomaly distribution was also unrelated to the distribution of background neutral density.It could not be explained by changes in the photochemical process induced by the solar flares.Thus,the transport process could be one of the main reasons for the anomaly distribution of ionospheric responses to the solar flares.This anomaly distribution also suggests that not only the photochemical process but also the transport process could significantly affect the variation in ionospheric electron density during some solar flares.

Double hard X-ray peaks in RHESSI flares as evidence of chromospheric evaporation and implications for modifying the Neupert effect

Among the RHESSI flare samples, we concentrated on a kind of flare that presents two successive peaks （that is, it presents both an impulsive phase and a gradual phase） in 12 - 25 keV light curves. Taking the C1.4 flare on 2002 August 12 as an example, we studied the light curves, spectra, and images in detail. Making full use of the capabilities of RHESSI, we showed some evidence to support the expected causal relationship between these two peaks; the first peak is mainly nonthermal, while the second peak is mainly thermal; the energy carried by nonthermal electrons during the first peak seems to be comparable to the thermal energy of the second peak. The morphologies of X-ray images and their evolutions provide additional evidence for this causality. We conclude that two such peaks in the 12 - 25 keV light curve are good evidence for the chromospheric evaporation. However, the maximum time of the second peak is later than the end time of the first peak, suggesting that for some events, a modification of the traditional Neupert effect could be necessary by inclusion of a time delay, which might be partly related to the filling of the loop by evaporated material.

Case-control study of factors that trigger inflammatory bowel disease flares

AIM:To explore the association between inflammatory bowel diseases(IBD)flares and potential triggers.METHODS:Patients evaluated for an acute flare of IBD by a gastroenterologist at the Dallas VA Medical Center were invited to participate,as were a control group of patients with IBD in remission.Patients were systematically queried about nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use,antibiotic use,stressful life events,cigarette smoking,medication adherence,infections,and travel in the preceding 3 mo.Disease activity scores were calculated for each patient at the time of enrollment and each patient’s chart was reviewed.Multivariate regression analysis was performed.RESULTS:A total of 134 patients with IBD(63 with Crohn’s disease,70 with ulcerative colitis,and 1 with indeterminate colitis)were enrolled;66 patients had flares of their IBD and 68 were controls with IBD in remission(for Crohn’s patients,average Crohn’s disease activity index was 350 for flares vs 69 in the controls;for UC patients,Mayo score was 7.6 for flares vs 1 for controls in those with full Mayo available and 5.4p for flares vs 0.1p for controls in those with partial Mayo score).Only medication non-adherence was significantly more frequent in the flare group than in the control group(48.5%vs 29.4%,P=0.03)and remained significant on multivariate analysis(OR=2.86,95%CI:1.33-6.18).On multivariate regression analysis,immunomodulator use was found to be associated with significantly lower rates of flare(OR=0.40,95%CI:0.19-0.86).CONCLUSION:In a study of potential triggers for IBD flares,medication non-adherence was significantly associated with flares.These findings are incentive to improve medication adherence.

Dependence of anomalous resistivity on bulk drift velocity of electrons in the reconnecting current sheets in solar flares

Anomalous resistivity is critical for triggering fast magnetic reconnection in the nearly collisionless coronal plasma. Its nonlinear dependence on bulk drift velocity is usually assumed in MHD simulations. However, the mechanism for the production of anomalous resistivity and its evolution is still an open question. We numerically solved the one dimension Vlasov equation with the typical solar coronal parameters and realistic mass ratios to infer the relationship between anomalous resistivity and bulk drift velocity of electrons in the reconnecting current sheets as well as its non- linear characteristics. Our principal findings are summarized as follows： 1） the relationship between the anomalous resistivity and bulk drift velocity of electrons relative to ions may be described as ηmax=0.03724（vd/ve）^5.702Ωm for vd/ve in the range of 1.4-2.0 and ηmax=0.8746（vd/ve）^1.284Ωm for vd/ve in the range of 2.5-4.5;2）if drift velocity is just slightly larger than the threshold of ion-acoustic instability, the anomalous resistivity due to the wave-particle interactions is enhanced by about five orders as compared with classic resistivity due to Coulomb collisions, With the increase of drift velocity from 1.4ve to 4.5Ve, the anomalous resistivity continues to increase 100 times; 3） in the rise phase of unstable waves, the anomalous resistivity has the same order as the one estimated from quasi-linear theory; after saturation of unstable waves, the anomalous resistivity decreases at least about one order as com- pared with its peak value; 4） considering that the final velocity of electrons ejected out of the reconnecting current sheet （RCS） decreases with the distance from the neutral point in the neutral plane, the anomalous resistivity decreases with the distance from the neutral point, which is favorable for the Petschek-like reconnection to take place.

Flares and magnetic non-potentiality of NOAA AR 11158

Magnetic non-potentiality is important for understanding flares and other solar activities in active regions （ARs）. Five non-potential parameters, i.e. electric current, current helicity, source field, photospheric free energy, and angular shear, are calculated to quantify the non-potentiality of NOAA AR 11158. Benefitting from the high spatial resolution, high cadence and continuous temporal coverage of vector mag- netograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory, both the long-term evolution of the AR and the rapid change during flares are studied. We confirm that, compared with the magnetic flux, the magnetic non-potentiality has a closer connection with the flare, and the emerging flux regions are important for understanding the magnetic non-potentiality and flares. The main re- suits are as follows. （1） The vortex in the source field directly displays the deflection of the horizontal magnetic field. The deflection corresponds to the fast rotating sunspot with a time delay, which suggests that the sunspot rotation leads to an increase in the non-potentiality. （2） Two areas that have evident changes in the azimuth of the vector magnetic field are found near the magnetic polarity inversion line. The change rates of the azimuth are about 1.3° h-1 and 3.6° h-1, respectively. （3） Rapid and prominent increases are found in the variation of helicity during four flares in the regions where their initial brightening occurs. The recovery of the increases takes 3-4 h for the two biggest flares （X2.2 and M6.6）, but only takes about 2 h for the two other smaller flares （M2.2 and M1.6）.

A Statistical Study of Rapid Sunspot Structure Change Associated with Flares

We reported recently some rapid changes of sunspot structure in white-light （WL） associated with major flares. We extend the study to smaller events and present here results of a statistical study of this phenomenon. In total, we investigate 403 events from 1998 May 9 to 2004 July 17, including 40 X-class, 174 M-class, and 189 C-class flares. By monitoring the structure of the flaring active regions using the WL observations from the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer （TRACE）, we find that segments in the outer sunspot structure decayed rapidly right after many flares; and that, on the other hand, the central part of sunspots near the flare-associated magnetic neutral line became darkened. These rapid and permanent changes are evidenced in the time profiles of WL mean intensity and are not likely resulted from the flare emissions. Our study further shows that the outer sunspot structure decay as well as the central structure darkening are more likely to be detected in larger solar flares. For X-class flares, over 40% events show distinct sunspot structure change. For M- and C-class flares, this percentage drops to 17% and 10%, respectively. The results of this statistical study support our previously proposed reconnection picture, i.e., the flare-related magnetic fields evolve from a highly inclined to a more vertical configuration.

Dependence of E ≥ 100 MeV protons on the associated flares and CMEs

To investigate the possible solar source of high-energy protons, correlation coefficients between the peak intensities of E ≥ 100 MeV protons, I100, and the peak flux and fluence of solar soft X-ray（SXR） emission, and coronal mass ejection（CME） linear speed in the three longitudinal areas W0-W39, W40-W70 and W71-W90 have been calculated respectively. Classical correlation analysis shows that the correlation coefficients between CME speeds and I100 in the three longitudinal areas are0.28±0.21, 0.35±0.21 and 0.04±0.30 respectively. The classical correlation coefficients between I100 and SXR peak flux in the three longitudinal areas are 0.48±0.17, 0.72±0.13 and 0.02±0.30 respectively, while the correlation coefficients between I100 and SXR fluence in the three longitudinal areas are 0.25±0.21, 0.84±0.07 and 0.10±0.30 respectively. Partial correlation analysis shows that for solar proton events with source location in the well connected region（W40-W70）, only SXR fluence can significantly affect the peak intensity of E ≥ 100 MeV protons, but SXR peak flux has little influence on the peak intensities of E ≥ 100 MeV protons; moreover, CME speed has no influence on the peak intensities of E ≥ 100 MeV protons. We conclude that these findings provide statistical evidence that E ≥ 100 MeV protons may be mainly accelerated by concurrent flares.

The breakdown of the power-law frequency distributions for the hard X-ray peak count rates of solar flares

The frequency distribution for several characteristics of a solar flare obeys a power law only above a certain threshold, below which there is an apparent loss of small scale events presumably caused by limited instrumental sensitivity and th：e corresponding event selection bias. It is also possible that this deviation in the power law can have a physical origin in the source. We propose two fitting models incorpo- rating a power law distribution with a low count rate cutoff plus a noise component for the frequency distribution of the hard X-ray peak count rate of all solar flare sam- ples obtained with HXRBS/SMM and BATSE/CGRO observations. Our new fitting method produces the same power-law index as previously developed methods, a low cutoff of the power-law function and its corresponding noise level, which is consistent with measurements of the actual noise level of the hard X-ray count rate. We found that the fitted low cutoff appears to be related to the noise level, i.e., flares are only recognized when their peak count rate is 3or greater than noise. Therefore, the fitted low cutoff, which is smaller than the aforementioned threshold, might be attributed to selection bias, and probably not to the actual count rate cutoff in flares at smaller scales. Whether or not the actual low cutoff physically exists needs to be checked by future observations with increased sensitivities.

On the power-law distributions of X-ray fluxes from solar flares observed with GOES

The power-law frequency distributions of the peak flux of solar flare X-ray emission have been studied extensively and attributed to a system having self-organized criticality （SOC）. In this paper, we first show that, so long as the shape of the normalized light curve is not correlated with the peak flux, the flux histogram of solar flares also follows a power-law distribution with the same spectral index as the power- law frequency distribution of the peak flux, which may partially explain why power-law distributions are ubiquitous in the Universe. We then show that the spectral indexes of the histograms of soft X-ray fluxes observed by GOES satellites in two different energy channels are different： the higher energy channel has a harder distribution than the lower energy channel, which challenges the universal power-law distribution predicted by SOC models and implies a very soft distribution of thermal energy content of plasmas probed by the GOES satellites. The temperature （T） distribution, on the other hand, approaches a power-law dis- tribution with an index of 2 for high values of T. Hence the application of SOC models to the statistical properties of solar flares needs to be revisited.

The Role of Nuclei-Nuclei Interactions in the Production of Gamma-ray Lines in Solar Flares

Dramatic extensions of experimental possibilities (spacecraft RHESSI, CORONAS-F and others) in solar gamma-ray astronomy call for urgent, detailed theoretical consideration of a set of physical problems of solar activity and solar-terrestrial relationships that earlier may have only been outlined. Here we undertake a theoretical analysis of issues related to the production of gamma-radiation in the processes of interactions of energetic (accelerated) heavy and middle nuclei with the nuclei of the solar atmosphere (the so-called i-j interactions). We also make an estimate of the contribution of these interactions to the formation of nuclear and isotopic abundances of the solar atmosphere in the range of light and rare elements. The analysis is carried out for solar flares in the wide range of their intensities. We compare our theoretical estimates with RHESSI observations for the flare of 2002 July 23. It was shown that the 24Mg gamma-ray emission in this event was produced by the newly generated Mg nuclei. With a high probability, the gamma-ray line emission of 28Si nuclei from this flare was generated by the same processes.

Ensemble prediction model of solar proton events associated with solar flares and coronal mass ejections

An ensemble prediction model of solar proton events （SPEs）, combining the information of solar flares and coronal mass ejections （CMEs）, is built. In this model, solar flares are parameterized by the peak flux, the duration and the longitude. In addition, CMEs are parameterized by the width, the speed and the measurement position angle. The importance of each parameter for the occurrence of SPEs is estimated by the information gain ratio. We find that the CME width and speed are more informative than the flare’s peak flux and duration. As the physical mechanism of SPEs is not very clear, a hidden naive Bayes approach, which is a probability-based calculation method from the field of machine learning, is used to build the prediction model from the observational data. As is known, SPEs originate from solar flares and/or shock waves associated with CMEs. Hence, we first build two base prediction models using the properties of solar flares and CMEs, respectively. Then the outputs of these models are combined to generate the ensemble prediction model of SPEs. The ensemble prediction model incorporating the complementary information of solar flares and CMEs achieves better performance than each base prediction model taken separately.