Non-Symmetry of China’s and US Monetary Policy Spillovers:Theoretical Modelling and Empirical Analysis

This study develops a structural vector autoregression(SVAR)framework to empirically examine the reciprocal transmission channels of monetary policies between China and the United States.The primary objective is to discern potential disparities in the spillover effects of monetary policies and ascertain any contrasting mechanisms underlying these effects across the two countries.Based on our research,it appears that there exists a certain level of non-symmetry in the spillover effects of monetary policy between the two countries.Moreover,this paper provides adequate analysis of disparities in the trade framework,capital control,and financial market operations of both countries in constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that incorporates financial frictions for the examination of the theoretical rationale.The empirical findings indicate that China’s monetary policy creates a spillover effect primarily through trade.In China,following an increase in its interest rates,the domestic economic activity will experience a contraction,leading to a decline in both investment and output.Consequently,this will result in a decrease in China’s imports of investment goods from the United States,impacting the output of the US economy.In contrast,the US monetary policy exerts a spillover effect primarily through finance.An increase in interest rates by the United States is associated with a notable outflow of capital from China.This leads to a rise in the financing costs for Chinese firms,consequently diminishing their overall net worth.In light of the financial accelerator effect,corporate external financing risk premium will continue to increase,exacerbating the downward trajectory of China’s output.

Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy:quantitative easing,spreads,and international financial markets

This study investigates the international spillover effects of US unconventional monetary policy(UMP)-frequently called large-scale asset purchases or quantitative easing(QE)—on advanced and emerging market economies,using structural vector autoregressive models with high-frequency daily data.Blinder(Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Rev 92(6):465–479,2010)argued that the QE measures primarily aim to reduce US interest rate spreads,such as term and risk premiums.Considering this argument and recent empirical evidence,we use two spreads as indicators of US UMP:the mortgage and term spreads.Based on data from 20 emerging and 20 advanced countries,our empirical findings reveal that US unconventional monetary policies significantly affect financial conditions in emerging and advanced countries by altering the risktaking behavior of investors.This result suggests that the risk-taking channel plays an important role in transmitting the effects of these policies to the rest of the world.The extent of these effects depends on the type of QE measures.QE measures such as purchases of private sector securities that lower the US mortgage spread exert stronger and more significant spillover effects on international financial markets than those that reduce the US term spread.Furthermore,the estimated financial spillovers vary substantially across countries and between and within the emerging and advanced countries that we examine in this study.

Structural Deceleration,Financial Expansion and Policy Selection:China's Economic Prospects for 2014

China's economic performance in 2013 has verified that China's economic slowdown is structural rather than cyclical.Current economic growth has been driven primarily by investment in infrastructure and real estate sector.Consumption is sluggish and exports recovery is unsustainable.Financial expansion is a major instrument in offsetting the deceleration of China's economic growth in 2013.But structural root cause of slowdown remains.According to cash flow statement,balance sheet and cross-border capital flow,risks of China's financial system are accumulating under the backdrop of financial expansion.Financial system should play its role of resource allocation and refrain from stimulating demand.Future policy choice will shift from short-term macro policy to institutional reform,including political reform,reform of supply mechanism,balancing between macro-stability policy and structural transition,and reform of financial system.

MAVP-FE:Multi-Authority Vector Policy Functional Encryption with Efficient Encryption and Decryption

In cloud,data access control is a crucial way to ensure data security.Functional encryption(FE) is a novel cryptographic primitive supporting fine-grained access control of encrypted data in cloud.In FE,every ciphertext is specified with an access policy,a decryptor can access the data if and only if his secret key matches with the access policy.However,the FE cannot be directly applied to construct access control scheme due to the exposure of the access policy which may contain sensitive information.In this paper,we deal with the policy privacy issue and present a mechanism named multi-authority vector policy(MAVP) which provides hidden and expressive access policy for FE.Firstly,each access policy is encoded as a matrix and decryptors can only obtain the matched result from the matrix in MAVP.Then,we design a novel function encryption scheme based on the multi-authority spatial policy(MAVPFE),which can support privacy-preserving yet non-monotone access policy.Moreover,we greatly improve the efficiency of encryption and decryption in MAVP-FE by shifting the major computation of clients to the outsourced server.Finally,the security and performance analysis show that our MAVP-FE is secure and efficient in practice.

Industrial Policy Analysis of Restricted Development Zones in Western China——A Study of State-level Main Producing Areas of Agricultural Products and Key Ecological Functional Areas

As one of the important policies of promoting the formation of main functional areas, the industrial policy directly determines the sustainable growth of space control ability of main functional areas. A restricted development zone is a type of main functional area which provides agricultural products and ecological products, assures the supply of national agricultural products and the stability of ecosystems, as well as safeguards the ecological functions and agricultural functions of wider regions by restricting its own development. Therefore scientific, complete and operable industrial policy support is needed. Restricted development zones are distributed widely in western China. With the restriction of their main functions, differential industrial policies should be implemented in the development of the restricted development zones: Dealing well with the relationship between industrial development and ecological protection, developing special industries which are friendly to resources and environment and appropriate for local conditions, guiding and encouraging industries to learn from regions with favorable development conditions, orderly withdrawing industries and enterprises adverse to main functions, facilitating industrial structure upgrading, optimizing industrial organization, improving industrial technological level and rationalizing industrial layout.

Strategies and Policy Options for Cooperation between China and India under Global Financial Crisis

In Part I the author analyses the impact of the financial and economic crisis in terms of global and Sino-India cooperation,and the Challenges that the two countries are facing. In Part II the Guiding Principles on Sino-India Economic and Trade Cooperation are being reviewed. And the author suggested some strategies and policy options for cooperation between China and India.

Consequences of Exits from Political Unions on Dividend Policy: The Case of Ethiopian Split

This paper examines the consequences of exits from political unions or the split of countries on dividend policy decision,taking the Ethiopian split as a practical case,considered as a major factor in the increase of political tension with Eritrea especially after the secession,that led to the increase in successive political conflicts and dispute over the past years till now.This paper studies the impacts of political conflicts that have been companied with split to this day especially during the period between 2010 and 2019,using a database of six companies from different sectors,from Ethiopia.The results show that the political conflicts such as split have a direct impact on the dividend policy.

Econometric Study of Relationship between Change of Farmland Quantity and Policy of Farmland Protection in China

According to the data from Investigation Report of Land Use Change in China,The Land Resources Communique of China and Chronicle of Statistical Data for Five Decades of New China issued from Ministry of Land Resources,we select two indices:change of farmland quantity and policy of farmland protection.According to econometric theory,by using Eviewes 5.1 software,co-integration analysis,Granger causality test,impulse response and other analysis methods,we analyze the relationship between change of farmland quantity and policy of farmland protection in China since the reform and opening-up.The results show that there is long-term balanced relationship between change of farmland quantity and policy of farmland protection,and there is a certain mechanism restricting motion of variables between the two so as to make the two deviate from each other little and step towards balance in the long run;there is unilateral causality relationship between farmland change and policy of farmland protection,namely that the farmland change is the Granger cause of policy of farmland protection,while policy of farmland protection is not the Granger cause of farmland change;impulse response and variance decomposition indicate that farmland change plays the role of promoting policy of farmland protection continuously,and the role is strengthened along with prolonged lag period;the policy of farmland protection has strong inertia,because it is impacted by the former level of itself,and the policy of farmland protection plays insignificant role in promoting farmland quantity.Consequently,the important approach of solving problem of rapid decrease of farmland is to formulate long-term strategy,strengthen theoretical research of farmland protection and reinforce degree of formulation,implementation and surveillance of farmland protection policy.

Rethinking China's Macroeconomic Policy

Six years have passed since the global financial crisis began.Yet,mainstream economists are still far from reaching a consensus on a framework for restructuring macroeconomic policy.In April 2013,many top scholars attended the International Monetary Fund's(IMF) second conference on "Rethinking Macro Policy".During the conference,the following basic assessments with respect to macroeconomic policy were reached:economists and policy-makers have entered a "brave new world" where they face more problems than effective solutions and the image of a new macroeconomic policy framework remains opaque.Based on discussions at the conference and the dissertations of important scholars over recent years,this paper provides a systematic review of the reflections of mainstream economic academia regarding the restructuring of a macroeconomic policy framework,with a view to providing an orientation to China s ongoing reform of macroeconomic regulation.

Risk aversion remains the primary task for China's financial policy

On October 30 and 31,the central fi-nancial work conference was held in Beijing,with Chinese President Xi Jinping delivering a key speech on developing China into a world's financial power.

Time-consistent pension policy with minimum guarantee and sustainability constraint

This paper proposes and investigates an optimal pair investment/pension policy for a pay-as-you-go(PAYG)pension scheme.The social planner can invest in a buffer fund in order to guarantee a minimal pension amount.The model aims at taking into account complex dynamic phenomena such as the demographic risk and its evolution over time,the time and age dependence of agents preferences,and financial risks.The preference criterion of the social planner is modeled by a consistent dynamic utility defined on a stochastic domain,which incorporates the heterogeneity of overlapping generations and its evolution over time.The preference criterion and the optimization problem also incorporate sustainability,adequacy and fairness constraints.The paper designs and solves the social planner's dynamic decision criterion,and computes the optimal investment/pension policy in a general framework.A detailed analysis for the case of dynamic power utilities is provided.

Reflection on the Basic Orientation of China's Policy-Oriented Financial System

At present stage,active exploration and healthy development of China’s policy-oriented financial system is hindered by such problems as unclear understanding of policy finance,dislocation of the functions of policy banks and so on.While sticking to pushing forward the reforms of market-oriented financial system and fully improving the efficiency of the financial system,we must correctly handle the relationship between policy finance and commercial finance,re-examine the position and role of policy finance in the entire financial system of the country,take the policy-oriented financial system as one of the important parts of financing of the social funds,make up and fill in reasonably the"intermediate zone"between the direct fiscal expenditures and commercial financing,pursue the transition of the mechanism relying on government financial resources,realize the multiplexing effect of efficiency promotion,serve the comprehensive,coordinated,sustainable and unified development required by the concept of scientific development and catching-up and breakthrough at some strategic focuses.

A Study of Coordinating China's Two-Pillar Regulatory Policy under the Shock of the Fed's Interest Rate Hike-From the Perspective of"Stable Growth"and"Risk Prevention"

Domestic asset price fluctuations triggered by the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike may lead to a spiral of mutual feedback between fluctuations in real economy and systematic risks of the financial sector.By constructing a DSGE model of small-scale open economy including cross-border capital flows and supply-demand financial frictions,this paper describes the negative feedback mechanism formed by the interplay between domestic real-economy fluctuations and financial risks on both supply and demand sides under the impact of Fed's interest rate hike,and studies how to coordinate monetary policy and macroprudential policies under the goals of maintaining stable growth and preventing risks.

Optimal Control Policy of M/G/1 Queueing System with Delayed Randomized Multiple Vacations Under the Modified Min(N,D)-Policy Control

Based on the number of customers and the server’s workload,this paper proposes a modified Min(N,D)-policy and discusses an M/G/1 queueing model with delayed randomized multiple vacations under such a policy.Applying the well-known stochastic decomposition property of the steady-state queue size,the probability generating function of the steady-state queue length distribution is obtained.Moreover,the explicit expressions of the expected queue length and the additional queue length distribution are derived by some algebraic manipulations.Finally,employing the renewal reward theorem,the explicit expression of the long-run expected cost per unit time is given.Furthermore,we analyze the optimal policy for economizing the expected cost and compare the optimal Min(N,D)-policy with the optimal N-policy and the optimal D-policy by using numerical examples.

Financial Market Turmoil: Implications for Monetary Policy Transmission in China

The recent financial market turmoil has initiated another search for insightful understanding of the interactions between the financial market and monetary policy. This paper explores these interactions in terms of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in China. We argue that evolving financial development, enhanced by the expansion of the financial market, has altered the conventional channel for monetary transmission in China. Analyzing marked changes in the financial landscape and taking into account policy regime shifts in China, the paper provides clear evidence showing that the financial market has become a new and important channel for transmission of monetary policy in China.

Does a national industrial policy promote financial market stability?A study based on stock price crash risk

Whether the implementation of a national industrial policy can maintain stability in the financial market is a question of theoretical and practical significance. Using data from China’s non-financial listed firms from 2007 to 2020,we find that a national industrial policy lowers stock price crash risk. We find that the effect of an industrial policy on lowering stock price crash risk is more pronounced in regions with low levels of regional marketization and if firms have high external uncertainty, low total asset turnover, greater earnings management and receive small increments of long-term loans and fewer government subsidies, suggesting that industrial policies lower stock price crash risk by improving firm fundamentals and reducing external uncertainty,agency costs and information asymmetry.

Economic Policy Uncertainty:Cross-Country Linkages and Spillover Effects on Economic Development in Some Belt and Road Countries

With the increase of economic environment uncertainty,it is of great importance to study the linkage and spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty among countries.Especially,this article selects eight countries along the Belt and Road as the core countries(China,Korea,Croatia,India,Russia,Greece,Pakistan,and Singapore)and four countries(Germany,France,Japan,and UK)as the peripheral countries,and then copula technique and mixed-frequency global vector autoregressive model are employed to analyze the correlation and the spillover effect of the economic policy uncertainty(EPU)for the twelve selected countries,respectively.The proposed empirical findings show clearly that the EPU correlation among the eight core Belt and Road countries is stronger and the spillover effect of the core countries to the peripheral countries is statistically significant.As a result,for harmonious and win-win development,the Belt and Road countries should pay a close attention to the EPU,because the stability of the EPU promotes greatly the economy development.

A Multi-server Queue in a Multi-phase Random Environment with Waiting Servers and Customers'Impatience Under Synchronous Working Vacation Policy

In this paper,we develop an M/M/c queueing system in a Markovian environment with waiting servers,balking and reneging,under both synchronous single and multiple working vacation policies.When the system is in operative phase j,j=1,K¯,customers are served one by one.Once the system is empty,the servers have to wait a random period of time before leaving,causing the system to move to vacation phase 0 at which new arrivals can be served at lower rate.Using the method of the probability generating functions,we establish the steady-state analysis of the system.Special cases of the queueing model are presented.Then,explicit expressions of the useful system characteristics are derived.In addition,a cost model is constructed to define the optimal values of service rates,simultaneously,to minimize the total expected cost per unit time via a quadratic fit search method.Numerical examples are provided to display the impact of different system characteristics.