A Long-term Mechanism Needed to Safeguard Financial Stability

In the post-WTO era, China has encountered new difficulties in maintaining financial stability. Quick fix and emergency measures can no longer be relied on in the long run, and therefore, a long-term mechanism of financial stability must be put in place. This article recommends that China should focus on furthering financial reform, accelerating financial innovation and improving the legal system to promote a strong and competitive finance industry that is less vulnerable to financial hazards.

Risk Premiums and Financial Stability

The collective revelation of credit institutions as regards the imminence of specific risks materialising, which often follows long periods of underestimating probable losses, can trigger a broad-based financial deleveraging via an overly high upsurge in banks＇ risk premiums vis-a-vis the dynamics of fundamentals underlying loan repayment capability. In this context, this paper seeks to investigate the banking sector＇s internal mechanisms that might bring about a negative spiral of credit risk by building a model for the interaction between the increase of the risk premium and that of net interest income and provisioning rate. Statistical results confirm that a higher risk premium is one of the major determinants of credit default in Romania and its excessive widening could affect financial stability in Romania.

On fractional discrete financial system:Bifurcation,chaos,and control

The dynamic analysis of financial systems is a developing field that combines mathematics and economics to understand and explain fluctuations in financial markets.This paper introduces a new three-dimensional(3D)fractional financial map and we dissect its nonlinear dynamics system under commensurate and incommensurate orders.As such,we evaluate when the equilibrium points are stable or unstable at various fractional orders.We use many numerical methods,phase plots in 2D and 3D projections,bifurcation diagrams and the maximum Lyapunov exponent.These techniques reveal that financial maps exhibit chaotic attractor behavior.This study is grounded on the Caputo-like discrete operator,which is specifically influenced by the variance of the commensurate and incommensurate orders.Furthermore,we confirm the presence and measure the complexity of chaos in financial maps by the 0-1 test and the approximate entropy algorithm.Additionally,we offer nonlinear-type controllers to stabilize the fractional financial map.The numerical results of this study are obtained using MATLAB.

The impact of credit risk transfer on financial stability

The development of credit risk transfer market disperse the credit risk of banks, at the same time, also give a threat to the whole financial system with instability. This paper from the influence factors of financial stability, explores how credit risk affecting the stability of financial system. Research found that the rating risk of credit risk transfer can cause default contagion in the financial markets.

“新瓶装旧酒”还是“旧貌换新颜”:地方金融监管与企业金融化

强化地方监管职能是深化金融体制改革、提升金融服务实体经济质效的重要举措。本文以2018年省级地方金融监管局的设立为准自然实验,采用2015—2021年A股上市公司年度数据,考察地方金融监管的去金融化效应。研究发现:(1)地方金融监管局的设立可以有效抑制企业金融投机活动。(2)异质性分析发现,去金融化的作用主要体现在金融分权水平较高、监管竞次意愿较低、法治水平较高的地区以及具有金融背景的高管占比较高、非公有制属性的企业。(3)机制分析表明,对内强化监管治理体系以“堵塞”企业金融投机渠道、对外巩固发展职能以“疏通”滴灌实体经济渠道是这一抑制作用的两条路径。此外,本文验证了地方金融监管有助于抑制企业的“实体中介”动机,进而降低企业金融资产持有水平。本文为“条块关系”下地方金融监管相关研究提供了新的视角,也为全面提升金融风险防控能力、促进金融高质量发展、建设金融强国提供了学理支持与决策参考。

Reduced differential transform and Sumudu transform methods for solving fractional financial models of awareness

In that paper,we new study has been carried out on previous studies of one of the most important mathematical models that describe the global economic movement,and that is described as a non-linear fractional financial model of awareness,where the studies are represented at the steps following:One:The schematic of the model is suggested.Two:The disease-free equilibrium point(DFE)and the stability of the equilibrium point are discussed.Three:The stability of the model is fulfilled by drawing the Lyapunov exponents and Poincare map.Fourth:The existence of uniformly stable solutions have discussed.Five:The Caputo is described as the fractional derivative.Six:Fractional optimal control for NFFMA is discussed by clarifying the fractional optimal control through drawing before and after control.Seven:Reduced differential transform method(RDTM)and Sumudu Decomposition Method(SDM)are used to take the resolution of an NFFMA.Finally,we display that SDM and RDTM are highly identical.

Can ETFs affect U.S.financial stability?A quantile cointegration analysis

This study evaluates whether exchange traded funds(ETFs)threaten financial market stability by testing two hypotheses relating the growing importance of ETFs to increased market volatility and rising equity valuations.We estimate quantile cointegration models using Standard&Poor's 500 Index(S&P 500)and Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility Index(VIX)data for 1994-2020.We found that an increase in ETFs is positively and significantly related to the long-term valuation of the S&P 500 for quantile values above the median.By contrast,ETFs have only a negative and significant effect on the VIX for quantiles around the median.Ultimately,two novel results were obtained.First,the distortion in the value of the S&P 500 relative to its fundamentals is driven by investor flow into ETFs during a bull market.Second,the impact of equity ETFs on the VIX is only affected when fundamental factors are in play,decreasing it.Therefore,ETFs contribute to forming equity bubbles and support valuation market dynamics.Both regulators and policymakers should consider these conclusions.

The implications of the ecological footprint and renewable energy usage on the financial stability of South Asian countries

This study explores the complex relationships involving ecological footprints,energy use,carbon emissions,governance efficiency,economic prosperity,and financial stability in South Asian nations spanning the period from 2000 to 2022.Employing various methodologies such as cross-sectional dependence tests,co-integration analysis,and first-and second-generation unit-root tests,we use a panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag model,feasible generalized least squares,and Panel Corrected Standard Errors to ensure the robustness of our findings.We find noteworthy positive correlations between several variables,including heightened ecological consciousness,effective governance structures,increased GDP per capita,and amplified CO_(2) emissions.These relationships suggest potential pathways to strengthen the financial stability of the entire region;they also highlight the latent potential of embracing ecologically sustainable practices to fortify economic resilience.Our results also underscore the pivotal role of appropriate governance structures and higher income levels in bolstering financial stability in South Asian countries.Interestingly,we also find negative coefficients associated with the use of renewable energy,suggesting that escalating the adoption of renewable energy could create financial instability.This finding stresses the importance of diversification in energy strategies,cautioning policymakers to carefully consider the financial ramifications of potentially costly imports of renewable energy sources while seeking to reduce carbon emissions,emphasizing the need to strike a balance between ambitious sustainability goals and the pursuit of sustained economic robustness in the region.In considering the implications of these findings,it is crucial to consider each country’s broader socioeconomic context.Our results offer valuable insights for policymakers in developing renewable energy strategies.

中国金融稳定保障基金最优规模度量和配置研究--基于宏观经济部门非预期损失的分析

金融稳定保障基金是建设金融强国战略背景下维护和实现金融稳定的重要工具。通过编制2008—2020年中国31个省(区、市)金融部门、政府部门、非金融企业部门和家庭部门宏观或有权益资产负债表,运用宏观在险价值方法度量各地区、各部门资产和负债市场价值的非预期损失,估算能充分覆盖重大风险敞口的金融稳定保障基金最优规模和配置比例。研究发现,中国金融稳定保障基金的最优相对规模从大到小依次是:政府部门、非金融企业部门、家庭部门和金融部门。其中,非金融企业部门和家庭部门地区间规模差异显著,东部地区相对规模水平较低,西部地区较高。政府部门作为公共部门具有对其他经济主体的隐性担保责任,最终承担其他部门产生但未抵补的金融风险,是金融稳定的“最后一道防线”。为了更好地防范和化解金融风险,维护金融稳定,金融稳定保障基金应当确定风险适配的目标规模,并实现多层级分部门的有效配置,最终形成全方位、多层次的金融稳定保障基金配置体系。

Nexus of governance,macroeconomic conditions,and financial stability of banks:a comparison of developed and emerging countries

The study aims to explore the impact of governance and macroeconomic conditions on financial stability in developed and emerging countries.The study sample comprised 122 countries from 2013 to 2020,and a comprehensive set of variables was used to construct the financial stability index(FSI).The results of the two-step system GMM analysis,robust with D–K regression,indicate that interest rate,GDP growth,voice and accountability,political stability and absence of violence/terrorism,government effectiveness,regulatory quality,and control of corruption have a positive and statistically significant impact on financial stability.However,inflation,money supply,and the rule of law have adverse and insignificant effects on financial stability.Notably,the findings vary between developed and emerging countries due to differences in governance and macroeconomic conditions and their role in financial stability.The study concludes that regulatory governance and macroeconomic conditions are crucial for financial stability.These outcomes are significant for central banks,academia,and policymakers,as they emphasize the need for stable financial systems and sustainable,balanced growth through governance and macroeconomic conditions.

宏观审慎政策宽松实践、效果评估及现实启示

宏观审慎政策不仅要在风险积累时坚定稳妥收紧,而且要在风险显性化时及时有效放松,已有研究多聚焦前者,针对后者的研究相对较少,而后者对于完善宏观审慎政策框架、防范系统性金融风险、提高逆周期调节能力同样具有重要现实意义。本文探讨了宏观审慎政策宽松的内涵、作用机理和制约因素,梳理了新冠疫情前及疫情期间宏观审慎政策宽松的国际实践,并基于66国数据采用计量模型科学评估了政策效果,在此基础上总结了实施宏观审慎政策宽松的有益经验,分析了我国宏观审慎政策宽松实践现状及存在的问题,并提出政策建议。研究发现,宏观审慎政策宽松可通过稳定信贷市场、保障金融运行、引导正向预期、产生外部性等传导渠道实现政策目标,但也面临不少制约因素;总体看,疫情期间实施宏观审慎政策宽松显著缓解了疫情冲击带来的经济压力和金融压力,其中,逆周期资本缓冲工具的宽松效果相对突出;有效积累缓冲、保障缓冲释放、把握好政策尺度是提高宏观审慎政策宽松效果的重要因素;我国探索开展了内容丰富、特色鲜明的宏观审慎政策宽松实践,但还存在政策潜力有待释放、政策工具箱仍需丰富完善、政策视野需要向非银金融部门延伸、政策应对非传统风险能力有待提高等问题。结合我国宏观审慎管理实际,本文从健全完善宏观审慎政策宽松实施机制、疏通宏观审慎政策宽松传导渠道、把握宏观审慎政策宽松操作尺度、夯实宏观审慎政策宽松工具储备等四个方面提出政策建议。

美国货币政策对全球金融稳定的溢出效应

随着全球化的深入,美国货币政策对全球金融稳定造成的影响和溢出效应引起诸多学者关注。本文首先分析了美国货币政策影响全球金融稳定的机制与渠道,然后从五个维度选取12个核心指标构建覆盖全球61个经济体的金融稳定指数,接着构建面板数据模型检验美国货币政策对全球金融稳定的溢出效应。实证研究表明:第一,美国货币政策通过利率、资本流动、政策等渠道对全球金融稳定形成显著负向冲击;第二,扩张型货币政策对全球金融稳定的负面影响强于紧缩型货币政策;第三,金融危机后美国货币政策对全球金融稳定的负向冲击效果强于金融危机前;第四,美国货币政策对新兴经济体金融稳定的影响更为显著,其中实施钉住汇率制度、资本账户开放程度较高、与美国贸易联系更紧密的新兴经济体受到负面冲击的程度更大。最后,提出相应的政策建议:应全面提升我国金融体系的韧性,防范金融风险,维持金融稳定。

How Chinese authorities make financial policy decisions

The period between 1993 and 2002 was a crucial part of China's macroeconomic regulation and financial reform and opening-up. Throughout most of this phase, the author was involved in making major decisions on monetary policy, financial markets, regulation, reform and opening-up, and fulfilled his duties as a central bank leader. This paper is dedicated to the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China.

论我国金融监管职能配置的法律困境与制度优化

金融监管职能配置是金融监管制度的重要内容,是实现有效金融监管的基本前提。在新金融监管体制条件下,金融监管职能配置发生了重大变化,我国现行金融立法存在职能配置法律依据有待进一步加强、职能配置内容应进一步明确、职能配置协调合作效果有待增强等问题,需要进行制度优化。基于系统观念分析框架,以新时代中国特色社会主义条件下金融监管模式为监管职能配置的基本逻辑,明确监管职能配置遵循的合法性、能力性、协作性三要素,系统提升法律制度的监管能力,提高监管协作效率。在制度内容方面,从统筹监管、审慎监管、行为监管等监管范畴出发,通过在金融法律中明确各监管机构的职能定位,对监管职能配置进行系统的制度优化,对地方中小金融机构风险处置采取“特别立法授权+央地处置职能协同”模式,实现金融风险有效治理。

金融法视阈下的行政执法和解制度探析

《中华人民共和国金融稳定法(草案)》规定了行政执法当事人承诺制度,正在为金融领域行政执法和解制度的构建提供法律依据。与此同时,虽然行政和解暂未形成理论共识,但金融法视阈下行政执法和解的实践已然先行于理论。针对金融风险处置和证券期货领域中的金融纠纷,行政机关在符合依法行政的要求下通过行使自由裁量权,借助协商民主、公众参与等私法化手段采取的行政执法和解措施,可有效化解纠纷且实现各方获益的经济及社会效果。通过对金融领域行政执法和解措施的实践检视,提出以各方均可获益作为启动行政执法和解制度的前提,通过举证责任的倾斜、“自认”的可适用性与行刑衔接的合规机制相结合,将有助于构建更加符合实践理性的行政执法和解制度。

以金融体制改革推进中国式现代化:内在逻辑、核心要求与推进重点

金融在中国式现代化进程中一直扮演着至关重要的角色,已成为国家经济发展不可或缺的核心竞争力,在促进经济增长、稳定就业市场、助力经济转型等方面发挥了极其重要的作用。随着经济的发展,推进金融体制改革以适应并促进金融高质量发展显得尤为必要且紧迫。深化金融体制改革不仅是推动金融与中国式现代化同步发展的必然要求,也是突破制约金融高质量发展的体制机制障碍的关键举措。在中国式现代化背景下,深化金融体制改革的推进重点是:坚持党中央集中统一领导、完善现代中央银行制度、打造有效金融监管体系、做好金融“五篇大文章”、促进资本市场投融资功能相协调、推进金融高水平对外开放。通过不断深化金融体制改革,将金融高质量发展推向新的高度,从而为构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制和服务于中国式现代化提供强有力的金融保障和充沛的动力来源。

银行业加密资产监管:风险、趋势与中国应对

近年来,加密资产风险事件频发,多国监管部门和国际组织已出台监管政策和应对措施,评估加密资产风险,出台监管政策和应对措施。我国加密资产发展较快、业务模式复杂,亟须出台监管政策和应对措施。文章从对银行业加密资产风险的分析入手,梳理国际层面银行业加密资产监管的主要发展,分析了美国及欧盟银行业加密资产监管的主要特征与最新进展,从监管战略、国际标准、外部防范、审慎对待、推进立法等视角,提出了进一步完善我国银行业加密资产监管框架的对策建议。

上市公司影子银行化对金融稳定的影响与机制研究

影子银行因其规模的日益扩大及其带来的巨大影响而受到政府与学术界的广泛关注。本文基于上市公司财务数据和金融稳定相关数据,运用CRITIC指数构建法和误差修正模型,对上市公司影子银行化对金融稳定的影响与机制进行了理论分析与实证检验。研究发现:上市公司影子银行化提高了经济金融化程度,进而增加金融脆弱性而影响金融稳定。金融稳定更多受到东部、中部地区上市公司影子银行化的影响。相较于规模较小与盈利能力较弱上市公司,规模较大上市公司与盈利能力较强上市公司影子银行化对金融稳定造成的影响更大。研究结果有助于深化影子银行发展对金融稳定影响的理解,对强化上市公司金融化行为监管,维护金融稳定,实现金融高质量发展具有重要的政策意义。

建设强大的金融机构:理论逻辑、形势评估及政策取向——关于“金融强国”建设的思考

金融机构是金融强国建设的重要基础,“强大的金融机构”更是金融强国应当具备的关键要素之一。强大的金融机构应当具有优质的服务、高效的创新及全球领先的竞争力等。在建设金融强国进程中,打造强大的金融机构不仅是助力经济高质量发展的重要基础,也是维护金融体系稳定及参与全球竞争的关键。本文从强大的金融机构发展的历史与理论逻辑出发,分析我国建设强大的金融机构具备的基础条件、优势与不足,并提出政策建议。

资产泡沫与双支柱调控研究--理论、政策与展望

资产泡沫是影响金融稳定和宏观经济波动的重要因素,其形成源于金融市场的摩擦。资产泡沫虽然可能带来短暂的繁荣,但其价值容易受到情绪冲击的影响,进而加剧金融市场和宏观经济的波动,这对完善宏观调控框架提出了挑战。货币政策和宏观审慎政策是两类应对资产泡沫的重要政策手段,统称为双支柱调控框架。本文将资产泡沫与双支柱调控相关研究按特定的逻辑链条进行总结分析,为防范化解资产泡沫风险和促进金融稳定做出了理论贡献。当前,关于货币政策是否需要考虑资产价格目标尚存争议,而宏观审慎政策逐渐成为货币政策的有效补充。应对资产泡沫问题需要有效协调货币政策和宏观审慎政策,在统一的框架下厘清政策的职能定位,并在不断的理论研究和实践中探索最优双支柱政策框架。