Historical Changes of Ningxia Natural Disasters and Its Reason Analysis

A quantitative model is built and the historical variation of natural disasters is analyzed in this paper,by using materials as affected area(damaged area),affected population(dead and injured),casualty of livestock,collapsed houses(damaged houses),decrease of crops yield,economic loss(direct and indirect) and price index over the same period of Ningxia natural disasters(include drought,flood,gale and hail,frost,pest disasters and other disasters) during 1978-2007,and applying gray correlation analysis method.The long-term changes trend of natural disasters is analyzed by the application of the least squares method for linear trend,and the oscillation period is analyzed by using the maximum entropy statistical method.It is found that natural disasters have basically 2 to 3 years of variation period either in the whole region or in the individual regions;from the mid 1980s to the late 1990s,Ningxia is in an oscillation period with disasters attacked frequently in decadal and interannual scale under the background of climate;the increase of damage intensity of natural disasters slow down and tends to decrease since 2000.

Using ontology and rules to retrieve the semantics of disaster remote sensing data

Remote sensing data plays an important role in natural disaster management.However,with the increase of the variety and quantity of remote sensors,the problem of“knowledge barriers”arises when data users in disaster field retrieve remote sensing data.To improve this problem,this paper proposes an ontology and rule based retrieval(ORR)method to retrieve disaster remote sensing data,and this method introduces ontology technology to express earthquake disaster and remote sensing knowledge,on this basis,and realizes the task suitability reasoning of earthquake disaster remote sensing data,mining the semantic relationship between remote sensing metadata and disasters.The prototype system is built according to the ORR method,which is compared with the traditional method,using the ORR method to retrieve disaster remote sensing data can reduce the knowledge requirements of data users in the retrieval process and improve data retrieval efficiency.

Formation Reason Analysis and Defense Countermeasure of Rare Frozen Disaster in Guizhou in 2008

[Objective] The research aimed to discuss the formation reason of low temperature and frozen disaster weather event in Guizhou in 2008.[Method] By using T213,ECMWF numerical forecast data and the conventional meteorological observation data which were provided by MICAPS,according to the variation situations of frozen rain,freezing,road freezing and ground surface 0 ℃ line range,the weather situation evolution characteristic of low temperature and frozen weather process (congelation for short) in Guizhou from January 13 to February 15,2008 was analyzed.The formation reason of low temperature and frozen disaster weather event in Guizhou was discussed,and the defense countermeasure was put forward.[Result] The low temperature and frozen weather process happened when the continuous precipitation was caused by that every scale weather system intersected in Guizhou under the abnormal atmospheric circulation background.East Asian inverted Ω flow type in the northern hemisphere made that the atmospheric circulation stabilized for a long time,and the north branch frontal zone was by south.The polar cold air continued to complement and went south to affect Jiangnan,South China.The south branch westerly fluctuation was active,and the frontal zone intensity of stationary front was big,which maintained for a long time.850 hPa shear line in the low level maintained to swing in the junction of Guangxi and Guizhou,Hunan.The southwest warm and wet airflow continued transporting to the south of China.The cold and warm air intersected in South China,which caused the long-time precipitation in Guizhou.The thermal inversion layer was deep and thick.The long-time precipitation based generally on the light rain.It was easy to form the supercooled water droplet.The verglas range expanded from Guizhou,the south of Hunan to the north of Guangxi.The frozen rain and frozen weather caused the long-time road and wire freezing.The disaster was serious.The ground surface temperature 0 ℃ line covered the cold mountain area in the whole province for a long time.The ground surface freezing was difficult to melt,and the low temperature and frozen weather affected Guizhou for a long time.[Conclusion] The research accumulated the experience for the disaster prevention and reduction of such weather.

The Bionic Anticipation of Natural Disasters

After major natural disasters, such as the recent earthquake-tsunami event in South Asia, reports appear about the mysterious ability of animals to anticipate and to escape the impending danger. This is an opportunity to recall the long history of this phenomenon in the traditions of different civilizations, to evaluate Chinese efforts, 30-40 years ago, to use this phenomenon for earthquake prediction, and to judge its state of acceptance in modem science. An effort is made to introduce this phenomenon as a research field of modem bionics. The timing is favorable since, increasingly, infrared thermal anomalies, monitored from satellite, suggesting litho-atmospheric processes, are found to precede earthquakes. They were unexpected by seismologists and are here suggested to essentially reflect the energy conversion patterns responsible for the signals monitored by animals. The aim is to learn from animals in the long term how natural disasters can better be anticipated, and how simple technical warning systems can be developed. Some challenges are analyzed. One is interpretation of the nature of energy release prior to the main earthquake disaster resulting in ＂macro-anomaly＂ precursors, another is better to understand the effect on animal senses. The role of non-linear cooperative phenomena including tsunamitype waves is emphasized.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF SSTA IMPACTS OVER THE GLOBAL OCEAN ON THE ANOMALOUS CIRCULATION OVER EURASIA IN JANUARY 2008

In this paper, we discussed the features of atmospheric circulations over Eurasia as a response to sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） over the tropical Indian Ocean, the equatorial Pacific, Kuroshio and the North Atlantic. Our results are shown as follows： （1） CAM3.0, driven by the combined SSTAs over the four oceanic regions, can simulate well the features of anomalous atmospheric circulations over Eurasia in January 2008, indicating that the effects of the SSTAs over these four regions were one of the key causes of the anomalous systems over Eurasia. （2） The SSTAs over each key region contributed to the intensification of blocking over the Urals Mountains and a main East Asian trough. However, the influence of the SSTAs over individual oceanic regions differed from one another in other aspects. The SSTAs over the North Atlantic had an impact on the 500-hPa anomalous height （Z500A） over the middle-high latitudes and had a somewhat smaller effect over the low latitudes. For the warm SSTAs over Kuroshio, the subtropical high was much stronger, spread farther north than usual, and had an anomalous easterly that dominated the northwest Pacific Ocean. The warm SSTAs over the tropical Indian Ocean could have caused a negative Z500A from West Asia to Middle Asia, a remarkably anomalous southwesterly from the Indian Ocean to the south of China and an anomalous anticyclone circulation over the South China Sea-Philippine Sea region. Because of the La Nifia event, the winter monsoon was stronger than normal, with an anomalously cooler northerly over the southeastern coastal areas of China. （3） The combined effects of the SSTAs over the four key regions were likely more important to the atmospheric circulation anomalies of January 2008 over Eurasia than the effects of individual or partly combined SSTAS. This unique SSTA distribution possibly led to the circulation anomalies over Eurasia in January 2008, especially the atmospheric circulation anomalies over the subtropics, which were more similar to those of the winter E1 Nifio events than to the circulation anomalies following La Nifia.

2023年中国气候异常特征及主要天气气候事件

2023年,我国气候主要表现为暖干的特征,全国平均气温10.71℃,较1991—2020年气候平均偏高0.82℃,为1951年以来最暖;全国平均降水量615.0 mm,较常年偏少3.9%,为2012年以来第二少。四季气温均较常年同期偏高,其中夏、秋季分别为历史同期次高和最高;除秋季降水偏多外,其余三季降水均偏少。汛期(5—9月),全国平均降水量较常年同期偏少4.3%,为2012年以来第二少,我国中东部降水总体呈“中间多南北少”的分布。2023年,我国区域性气象干旱多发,西南地区遭遇冬春连旱;春季北方沙尘天气过程偏多;夏季前期,华北和黄淮遭受1961年以来最强高温过程;7月底至8月初,受台风杜苏芮影响,京津冀地区发生历史罕见极端强降水过程,华北地区出现“旱涝急转”;华西秋雨开始早、结束晚、雨量多;1月中旬发生年内最强寒潮过程;秋末冬初冷空气频繁入侵,12月华北和黄淮等地降雪日数偏多、积雪偏深。

Cyberspace Security Using Adversarial Learning and Conformal Prediction

This paper advances new directions for cyber security using adversarial learning and conformal prediction in order to enhance network and computing services defenses against adaptive, malicious, persistent, and tactical offensive threats. Conformal prediction is the principled and unified adaptive and learning framework used to design, develop, and deploy a multi-faceted?self-managing defensive shield to detect, disrupt, and deny intrusive attacks, hostile and malicious behavior, and subterfuge. Conformal prediction leverages apparent relationships between immunity and intrusion detection using non-conformity measures characteristic of affinity, a typicality, and surprise, to recognize patterns and messages as friend or foe and to respond to them accordingly. The solutions proffered throughout are built around active learning, meta-reasoning, randomness, distributed semantics and stratification, and most important and above all around adaptive Oracles. The motivation for using conformal prediction and its immediate off-spring, those of semi-supervised learning and transduction, comes from them first and foremost supporting discriminative and non-parametric methods characteristic of principled demarcation using cohorts and sensitivity analysis to hedge on the prediction outcomes including negative selection, on one side, and providing credibility and confidence indices that assist meta-reasoning and information fusion.

基于瓦斯防治工程的隐伏构造勘查与瓦斯异常区域预测

隐伏构造勘查与瓦斯异常区域预测研究是瓦斯灾害防治工程的基础。根据中国煤矿生产法律规章,开采具有瓦斯灾害危险的煤层前,必须实施瓦斯抽放工程。通常,地质异常区域即是瓦斯灾害危险区,构造应力场和采动应力场的叠加会扰动煤体并加压瓦斯。为精准定位地质异常区,评价其瓦斯致灾潜能,提出了一种基于瓦斯抽采工程进行瓦斯异常区域勘测的研究方法。该方法利用抽采钻孔参数和施工记录,采集钻孔数据并计算煤层顶底板控制点坐标,进而利用二维投影图件及三维应力场模型对隐伏地质构造(如小的断层、褶曲、局部煤厚异常变化等)进行勘查和预测;通过分析小型地质构造周围的附加应力场,并对瓦斯致灾潜能进行动态预测。应用该方法,可以对地质异常区进行精细调查,揭示采煤工作面瓦斯地质演化的一般规律。其研究结果为高瓦斯或突出煤层瓦斯灾害防治措施优化设计及有效实施提供科学依据。

Indications of stratospheric anomalies in the freezing rain and snow disaster in South China,2008

NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data were used to characterize stratospheric temperature and water-vapor anomalies before and after the freezing rain and snow disaster of South China in 2008,and the influence of stratospheric circulation anomalies on the troposphere.Stratospheric temperature and water-vapor anomalies provided good leading indicators of this weather event.The period from December 1st 2007 to February 28th 2008 was divided into 18 pentads.During the 6th pentad,temperature decreased significantly at 10 hPa in the near-polar stratospheric region,and the decreasing trend strengthened and extended downward and southward to middle and lower latitudes.During the 14th-18th pentads,the temperature decrease reached its maximum and extended to 30°N.This coincided with the widespread freezing rain and snow event.By the end of January 2008,the temperature decrease ended in the near-polar stratospheric region,but continued in the mid-latitude area of the troposphere as the freezing rain and snow weather persisted.Similar to the temperature variations,positive anomalies of relative humidity in the stratospheric near-polar region also strengthened and extended downward and southward,coinciding with the freezing rain and snow event.Along with the significant relationship between the freezing rain and snow disaster and stratospheric circulation anomalies,the stratospheric polar vortex changed its shape in late December,intensifying and spreading downward from the top of the stratosphere and southward to the Asian continent,resulting in a deepening of the East Asian Trough and a strengthening of meridional circulation.Before the occurrence of the freezing rain and snow event,temperature and vapor increases in the stratosphere transferred downward to the troposphere,along with a stratospheric flow in the near-polar region southward to lower latitudes.

青藏高原夏季极端降水研究进展与展望

在全球变暖背景下,极端降水正日益频繁、剧烈并影响更广泛的区域。特别是在气候变化的敏感区域——青藏高原(以下简称高原),这些现象的发生频率和强度均有显著增加,对当地乃至下游地区的生态环境和生产生活造成了重大影响。因此,对高原极端降水进行深入研究具有深远的科学意义和社会价值。本文从极端降水定义与指数、高原夏季极端降水特征、影响高原夏季极端降水的因素、高原夏季极端降水的灾害风险与未来预估四个方面,对近几十年来高原夏季极端降水的相关研究成果进行了回顾。通过梳理和分析相关领域的研究成果,以期为研究者提供清晰的研究脉络和前沿动态,促进学术交流与合作,共同推动高原极端降水领域的科学研究持续深入,为全球气候变化及极端天气气候事件研究和应对提供更加坚实和有力的科学支撑。

2022年夏季湖南气候异常特征及主要气象灾害简析

利用2022年6—8月湖南省97个气象站点的气温和降水量实况数据以及NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料等,分析2022年夏季湖南省出现的异常气候现象及其时空分布特征和环流形势.结果表明:6月中纬度西风带低压槽活跃,湖南省在前期一直受强降水的影响,7—8月西太平洋的副热带高压西段异常加强(脊点偏西约50个经度),是造成2022年夏季湖南省气候异常的主要影响因子.

北宋时期气候变化与异常气象对社会的影响

北宋时期,错综复杂的气候变化与变幻莫测的异常气象在社会发展过程中具有牵一发而动全身的重要作用。在政治军事方面,皇帝的言谈举止、朝廷的救灾措施乃至战争及军队优恤政策均会受到气候气象条件的掣肘;在经济方面,由气候恶化与异常气象所带来的粮食安全问题是动摇社会稳定性的重要因素,12世纪初期日趋转寒的气候条件进一步助推了经济重心的南移;在文化方面,气候气象条件深刻影响着官方性仪典及文娱活动的举办,同时也为北宋时期的文学创作提供了灵感来源。

物探异常区的验证方法与探讨

矿井水害是影响煤矿安全生产的主要危害之一,为了加强煤矿防治水能力,确保煤矿的安全开采,依据“物探先行、钻探验证”的煤矿防治水执行标准,以正珠煤业井田为研究对象,通过采用瞬变电磁法探明了物探异常区15J-1,给钻探提供靶区,减少了钻探工程量,提高了钻探精度,消除了安全隐患。通过使用各种手段对异常区进行验证,明确了15J-1物探异常区为15#煤层实煤区,平均煤厚为5.2 m,地质条件简单,整体为单斜构造,无采动破坏区,无水害隐患。

电力计量装置异常的原因及监测技术

电力行业的迅猛发展促使电力计量装备不断更新完善,电力计量装置的准确性和稳定性也不断提高.但在实际使用的过程中,经常会出现电力计量装置故障,严重影响计量数据的精度,数据误差太大也会影响后续的能源计费和数据管理.文章以电力计量装置为研究对象,分析了电力计量装置在使用过程中经常出现异常的原因,同时提出解决这些问题的监测方法和措施.

西南地区热灾害链及其与芦山地震的关系

通过对西南地区干旱（森林大火）-洪涝（或冰冻）-地震灾害链的分析,发现＂4·20＂芦山地震震前出现了一系列与该灾害链相关的热异常现象,即：川滇地区自2009年以来,先后经历了跨年度干旱,并伴随森林大火,2012年5月中旬局地开始出现暴雨洪涝,还引发大量滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害,2013年初南方多地相继出现大雾、低温、冻害、雪灾,在此期间,川滇地区还发生了一系列4.0~6.0级范围内中强地震,随后于4月20日发生了芦山地震。此外,通过芦山地震考察,发现震前8~6h内出现喷水冒砂、天气闷热、狗狂吠等宏观异常,地震的同时震中地区出现爆炸、冒烟等现象,这些现象进一步说明芦山地震成因并非断层错动,而是地下热异常积累到一定程度后突然释放。同时,结合西南地区热灾害链结构推测,西南地区近期内仍将有强震发生。

蒙古高压一组环流指数及与中国同期气候异常关系分析

定义了一组描述冬季（12—2月）的月、季1 000 hPa等压面上蒙古高压（MH）状态的新的环流指数,它包括面积指数S、强度指数P、中心位置指数（λc,φc）。用NCEP/NCAR资料计算了1948/1949—2007/2008年60个冬季的月、季MH的上述环流指数。用它们分析了近60年冬季各月MH的气候态,表明MH在12、1月最强,2月明显减弱;12月偏南,1、2月逐渐北移。分析了MH强度P和中心位置（λc,φc）的年代际变化特征及其与中国冬季气候（气温、降水）的相关,结果表明：（1）MH强度P和中心位置指数φc均存在显著年代际变化,P在1960′s末—1970′s初由高转低,φc在1970′s末—1980′s初由偏北转偏南。12、2月P~φc间存在显著正相关。MH强年偏北、弱年偏南。（2）MH环流指数P、φc与中国同期气温存在显著负相关,P的显著负相关区覆盖了中国除西南外的大部分区域,φc的显著负相关区也覆盖了中国东部除东南沿海外大部分区域;它们与中国降水的同期相关联系远弱于气温。（3）全球增暖背景下MH强度减弱、中心南移,中国大部分地区出现持续暖冬;但1990′s末以来,相反的异常时有发生。（4）＂0801华南雪灾＂期间（2008.1.10—2.2）MH异常偏强,并有四次中期活动过程;它们是造成此次极端气候异常事件的直接环流原因。

2021年全球重大天气气候事件及其成因

2021年全球平均气温较工业化前偏高1.11℃(±0.13℃),为有气象记录以来的第七暖年。全球海洋持续升温,海洋热容量和全球平均海平面高度均创历史新高,南北极海冰覆盖范围较常年偏小。年内,全球各地重大天气气候事件频发,欧亚多地遭受严重暴雨洪涝灾害,北美和亚洲等地发生严重干旱,北大西洋和北印度洋热带气旋异常活跃,欧洲和北美等地遭受高温热浪和山火,欧美及亚洲多地遭受寒流和暴风雪侵袭。成因分析表明,7月中旬中欧地区持续受切断低压控制,大西洋和地中海的水汽持续不断输送至欧洲中西部,给该地区带来了极端强降水事件并引发洪水;2月中旬对流层极涡从北极向南偏移至北美中部形成稳定的低压槽,在低压槽、有利的低层水汽输送、前期平流层爆发性增温的共同作用下,北美大部地区遭受极端低温和强暴风雪天气侵袭。

两种干旱指标在干旱致灾因子危险性中的对比分析——以宁夏为例

致灾因子是灾害风险分析理论体系中的重要组成部分,干旱致灾因子危险性指数由干旱强度和发生概率共同决定。基于致灾因子危险性指数计算模式,对比分析了宁夏中南部山区降水距平百分率和标准化降水指数两种常用干旱指标在致灾因子危险性中的应用。分析结果表明,基于两种干旱指标的宁夏中南部山区干旱致灾因子危险性分布趋势一致,且均与实际相符,考虑到计算的简单易行,可以选择降水距平百分率作为宁夏干旱致灾因子危险性指数分析的依据。从全区干旱灾害风险区划的分析表明,宁夏干旱致灾因子危险性大致呈由南到北逐步增加的趋势。

湖北省近代洪涝灾害的特点及其成因分析

以史料为据,对湖北省近代以来洪涝灾害的特点及其形成原因作了系统性的总结分析.研究表明:湖北省近代洪涝灾害是自然孕灾环境、人类致灾活动因子及其脆弱的承灾体共同作用的结果.自然孕灾环境孕出了“多灾”的特点,人类致灾活动直接引起“灾害频发”,而脆弱的承灾体则导致“灾情严重”.

遥感—岩石力学在矿山应用的试验研究

遥感—岩石力学的试验研究表明,岩石在受力与灾变过程中存在特征性的红外辐射变化,利用红外手段可以监测岩石应力与灾变问题。在过去遥感—岩石力学试验研究的基础上,针对矿山与岩石破裂失稳有关的安全隐患问题,利用红外热像仪对河北省峪耳崖金矿和辽宁省齐大山铁矿进行了现场检测,结果表明,利用热像仪可以检测井下高矿压部位、冒落和片帮等危险性的部位、渗水部位以及露天矿中断层和滑坡危险区,这些区域在热像中呈现不同于周围正常岩石的温度色调。如果结合长时间动态观测,可以对这些矿山灾害进行预测预警。研究结果为矿山安全及防灾减灾提供了新的监测预警手段。