Research on safety assessment of gas explosion hazard in heading face based on BP neural network

According to hazard theory and the principle of selecting assessment index,combining the causes and mechanisrn of gas explosion, established assessment index system of gas explosion in heading face. Based on the method of gray clustering, principle of BP neural network and characters of gas explosion in heading face, safety assessment procedural diagram of BP neural network on gas explosion hazard in heading face is designed. Meanwhile, concrete heading face of the gas explosion hazard is assessed by safety assessment method of BP neural network and grades of comprehensive safety assessment are got. The static and dynamic safety assessment can be achieved by this method. It is practical to improve safety management and to develop safety assessment technology in coalmine.

Analysis and Control Measures of Hazardous Chemical Explosions Based on Fault Tree Analysis

In view of the environmental and safety risks of hazardous chemical explosions in chemical enterprises,the fault tree analysis was used to establish a fault tree model of hazardous chemical explosions and comprehensively analyze the possibility of the explosions.The 34 basic events that caused hazardous chemical explosions were expounded,and the minimum cut and path sets were obtained.The structure importance of basic events were calculated.According to the minimum path sets,the basic events when the accident does not occur were determined,and combined with the sequence of structure importance,the preventive measures for hazardous chemical explosion accidents were proposed.The fault tree model intuitively clarified the correlation between the direct causes of hazardous chemical explosion accidents,and proposed directions for effectively reducing the probability of hazardous chemical explosion accidents in the chemical industry.

Numerical simulation to determine the gas explosion risk in longwall goaf areas:A case study of Xutuan Colliery

Underground gassy longwall mining goafs may suffer potential gas explosions during the mining process because of the irregularity of gas emissions in the goaf and poor ventilation of the working face,which are risks difficult to control.In this work,the 3235 working face of the Xutuan Colliery in Suzhou City,China,was researched as a case study.The effects of air quantity and gas emission on the three-dimensional distribution of oxygen and methane concentration in the longwall goaf were studied.Based on the revised Coward’s triangle and linear coupling region formula,the coupled methane-oxygen explosive hazard zones(CEHZs)were drawn.Furthermore,a simple practical index was proposed to quantitatively determine the gas explosion risk in the longwall goaf.The results showed that the CEHZs mainly focus on the intake side where the risk of gas explosion is greatest.The CEHZ is reduced with increasing air quantity.Moreover,the higher the gas emission,the larger the CEHZ,which moves towards the intake side at low goaf heights and shifts to the deeper parts of the goaf at high heights.In addition,the risk of gas explosion is reduced as air quantities increase,but when gas emissions increase to a higher level(greater than 50 m3/min),the volume of the CEHZ does not decrease with the increase of air quantity,and the risk of gas explosion no longer shows a linear downward trend.This study is of significance as it seeks to reduce gas explosion accidents and improve mine production safety.

Active protection of work area against explosion of dust-gas mixture

Potentially explosive atmosphere can occur not only in the production systems of the food,energy,chemical and petrochemical industries but also in the production processes of the mining industry.Gases,vapours,mists and dusts arise can escape in an uncontrolled way during production,processing,transportation and storage of flammable substances.In combination with oxygen,they create explosive atmospheres that,if ignited,lead to an explosion causing catastrophic damage to peopled lives and property.To protect against the results of hazardous dust-gas mixtures explosions in a confined work space,where employees can stay,various control and protection mechanisms are used in the form of an active explosion-proof system.The article presents the results of tests on an active system for limiting the effects of ignition of gas and/or dust based on a highly efficient explosion suppression system-equipped with an ignition detection system,high-pressure fire extinguisher and a power supply and trigger system.Smokeless powder was used as the explosive charge and sodium bicarbonate as the suppressive material.Tests of the effectiveness of the active explosion suppression system were carried out on two devices:a small-size dry dust collector and a zone extinguishing system adapted for direct explosion suppression in closed working spaces.In both cases,the explosion suppression process took place through the action of extinguishing powder blown out of the fire extinguisher after membrane perforation by compressed combustion products.

Integration of Geological, Geophysical and Seismological Data for Seismic Hazard Assessment Using Spatial Matching Index

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) takes into account as much data as possible for defining the initial seismic source zone model. In response to this, an algorithm has been developed for integration of geological, geophysical and seismological data through a spatial index showing the presence or absence of a potential seismic source feature in the input data. The spatial matching index (SMI) is calculated to define the coincidence of independent data showing any indications for existence of a fault structure. It is applied for hazard assessment of Bulgaria through quantification of the seismic potential of 416 square blocks, 20 × 20 km in size covering the entire territory of Bulgaria and extended by 20 km outside of the country borders. All operations are carried out in GIS environment using its capabilities to work with different types of georeferenced spatial data. Results show that the highest seismic potential (largest SMI) is observed in 56 block elements (13% of the territory) clearly delineating cores of the source zones. Partial match is registered in 98 block elements when one of the features is missing. Not any evidence for earthquake occurrence is predicted by our calculation in 117 elements, comprising 28% of the examined area. The quantitative parameter for spatial data integration which is obtained in the present research may be used to analyze information regardless of its type and purpose.

Major hazard sources analysis and prevention measures of packaging emulsion explosive production line

Emulsion explosive with favorable water-resistance performance,storage performance and detonation stability has been widely used in all over the world.The development actuality and production technique characteristics of emulsion explosive in China were introduced firstly.Taken the technique characteristics of packaging emulsion explosive into account,major hazard sources of emulsion explosive production line were analyzed.Finally,prevention measures based on inherent safety of emulsion explosive production were put forward.

Morphodynamics and sediment connectivity index in an unmanaged,debris-flow prone catchment:a through time perspective

Torrential processes are among the main actors responsible for sediment production and mobility in mountain catchments.For this reason,the understanding of preferential pathways for sediment routing has become a priority in hazard assessment and mitigation.In this context,the sediment Connectivity Index(IC)enables to analyse the existing linkage between sediment sources and the selected target(channel network or catchment outlet).The IC is a grid-based index that allows fast computation of sediment connectivity based on landscape information derived from a single Digital Terrain Model(DTM).The index computation is based on the log-ratio between an upslope and a downslope component,including information about drainage area,slope,terrain roughness,and distance to the analysis target(e.g.outlet).The output is a map that highlights the degree of structural connectivity of sediment pathways over analysed catchments.Until now,these maps are however rarely used to help defining debris-flow hazard maps,notably due to a lack of guidelines to interpret the IC spatial distribution.This paper proposes an exploitation procedure along profiles to extract more information from the analysis of mapped IC values.The methodology relies on the analysis of the IC and its component variables along the main channel profile,integrated with information about sediment budgeting derived from Difference of DEMs(DoD).The study of connectivity was applied in the unmanaged sub-catchment(without torrent control works)of the Rio Soial(Autonomous Province of Trento–NE Italy)to understanding the geomorphic evolution of the area after five debris flows(in ten years)and the related changes of sediment connectivity.Using a recent DTM as validation,we demonstrated how an IC analysis over the older DTM can help predicting geomorphic changes and associated hazards.The results show an IC aptitude to capture geomorphic trajectories,anticipate debris flow deposits in a specific channel location,and depict preferential routing pathways.

基于风雨综合指数的安徽省台风灾害房屋风险评估方法

台风致灾因子具有多重性,相对于其他灾种其风险评估更加复杂。采用安徽省81个国家气象站及1035个区域气象站台风过程逐日降水量、最大风速资料,构建台风风雨综合指数;利用台风风雨综合指数及孕灾环境影响系数,开展台风致灾危险性评估;基于自然灾害风险系统理论,综合致灾危险性、承灾体暴露度和脆弱性信息,评估安徽省台风灾害房屋风险。结果表明:影响安徽省台风年均个数为1.9个,持续天数以2~4 d居多;台风降水南部多于北部、山区多于平原。台风致灾高危险区位于皖南山区和大别山区,较高危险区位于江淮之间东部,低危险区位于沿淮淮北大部及江淮之间西北部。台风灾害房屋高及较高风险区主要分布在大别山区、江淮之间东部及皖南山区,这些区域海拔总体较高,台风过境易引发山洪地质灾害,加之房屋脆弱性较高,房屋倒塌及损毁风险高;中等风险区位于沿淮至江淮之间、江南部分地区,呈零星分布;较低和低风险区位于淮河以北中西部、沿江部分地区及城市主城区。利用全省各县区台风造成的房屋倒损数据,从空间一致性及散点相关对区划结果进行验证得到,区划结果与灾损具有高度的空间一致性,二者散点相关通过0.01的显著性水平检验,安徽省台风灾害房屋风险区划结果与实际情况基本吻合。

Sustainability of Bridges:Risk Mitigation for Natural Hazards

Bridges serve as essential parts of transportation infrastructure,facilitating the movement of people and goods across rivers,valleys,and other obstacles.However,they are also susceptible to a wide range of natural hazards,including floods,earthquakes,and landslides,which can damage or even collapse these structures,leading to severe economic and human losses.A risk index has been developed to address this issue,which quantifies the likelihood and severity of natural hazards occurring in a specific location.The application of risk indices for natural hazards in bridge management involves a data collection process and mathematical modelling.The data collection process gathers information on bridges’location,condition,and vulnerability,while mathematical modelling uses the data to assess the risk of natural hazards.Overall,risk indices provide a quantitative measure of the vulnerability of bridges to natural hazards and help to prioritize maintenance and repair activities.Mitigation measures are then evaluated and implemented based on the risk assessment results.By using this tool,the UBMS research group has developed an algorithm for risk assessment which will be essential in the decision-making process,specifically focused on enhancing Fund Optimization,Deterioration Modelling,and Risk Analysis.These developments effectively fulfill the primary objectives associated with addressing and mitigating hazards.This development also helps bridge managers understand the potential threats posed by natural hazards and allocate resources more efficiently to ensure the safety and longevity of critical transportation infrastructure.

土与强风化岩双元边坡圆弧-平面破坏模式与支护设计方法

为了探究土与强风化岩边坡中强风化岩不破坏的临界坡率及稳定性判断方法,基于济南地层,得出适用于数值模拟的土层参数,并利用强度折减法求出边坡的临界坡率,为施工提供参考。针对强风化岩不破坏的边坡,运用改进的瑞典条分法求出边坡安全系数解析解,并利用滑移线场法求出滑移线,为安全系数解析解的应用提供依据。结果表明,岩层厚度超过边坡高度1/2或坡率大于1:0.5时,强风化岩一定破坏;解析解得出的安全系数偏小,有利于工程安全;针对土与强风化岩边坡,文中结果可确定边坡破坏区域,设计支护方案。

地质灾害易发性评价方法综述

我国地形地质条件复杂,地质灾害多发,人类各类工程地质活动加剧了地质灾害的发生与发展.地质灾害预防与管理工作是保障人民生命与财产安全的前提与基础.地质灾害易发性评价是地质灾害危险性评价和风险评价的前提,也是地质灾害区划和防治工作的基础.本文基于国内外地质灾害易发性的相关研究,对地质灾害易发性概念、评价指标体系、权重计算方法和易发性评价模型进行分析总结,并指出了地质灾害易发性评价中亟待解决的主要问题.

面向火电厂煤粉尘浓度的预测评估算法的研究

火力发电的主要能源来自煤炭,而由于燃煤发电过程中产生的煤尘扩散是引起火电厂粉尘爆炸风险和尘肺职业病的主要根源之一,因此必须进行实时有效的检测和控制。当前粉尘检测方法仅使用单一的粉尘质量浓度指标来评估粉尘污染整体状况,缺乏对多种复合因素影响的考量,依靠单一阈值设定进行报警,易出现误报、漏报等现象,以及忽略粉尘爆炸这一重要事故场景,不能建立粉尘污染全面客观的评价方法。研究建立了一种粉尘质量浓度预测模型,基于金豺优化算法对极限学习机的最优初始权重进行寻优,再使用极限学习机对样本数据进行训练学习,提高神经网络模型的精度,可较为准确地预测30 min以内任意时间间隔的粉尘质量浓度,并将现场数据及模拟仿真数据与建立的粉尘质量浓度预测模型进行对比分析。结果显示:建立的粉尘质量浓度预测模型准确度良好,与现场数据及模拟仿真数据对比误差分别为0.72%和2.1%,可加强对火电厂粉尘环境进行预测预警,从而及时采取合理的粉尘控制策略,确保火电厂的生产安全并降低粉尘对作业人员的职业危害。

屯宝煤矿井下爆破作业有毒有害气体管控方法研究

针对煤矿井下爆破作业有毒有害气体管控难的问题,以屯宝煤矿绞车硐室及瓦斯抽放硐室施工为工程背景,通过利用矿井瓦斯抽放系统、配合设置隔离和搭建气室等措施调整优化施工工艺,采用全新的技术方法,使爆破作业期间气体管控良好,在满足国家规定的基础上,有效对有毒有害气体进行管控,同时极大减少了作业时间,保障了施工安全,增加了工作效率,施工期间未发生气体超限和伤人事故,安全高效解决了炮烟问题,证明该方法安全有效。

中国沿海地区热带气旋危险性分析

基于1980—2016年的西北太平洋热带气旋尺度资料,采用2种方法分析了热带气旋灾害的危险性。第一种方法根据热带气旋的风圈半径,用GIS生成了每个气旋的影响范围,对于登陆中国沿海的227个热带气旋,用叠加法得到了其影响范围与频次。第二种方法侧重热带气旋引发的风暴潮灾害,用潮位模型估算了热带气旋登陆时的潮位数据,提出了H3指标,该指标用潮位、风速和中心气压3个因子计算潮位点的风暴潮危险性,并根据H3指标得到了海岸线的危险性综合指标。分析结果表明,福建、广东两省受热带气旋的影响最为严重。37 a间,福建省有80%的面积(约9.8万km^(2))受热带气旋影响的频次超过20次;广东省则有70%的面积(约12.6万km2)受热带气旋影响的频次超过20次。受风暴潮危害大的海岸线主要位于广东、广西、福建、浙江四省,危险性指标在30以上的有广东的湛江市、茂名市、江门市、阳江市和珠海市;广西的北海市、防城港市和钦州市;福建的福州市以及浙江的台州市和温州市。

GC/LC-Q/TOF MS测定当归中农药残留及膳食风险评估

采用气相色谱/液相色谱-四极杆飞行时间质谱(GC/LC-Q/TOF MS)对100例市售当归样品进行了989种农药残留分析,按照风险排序法对检出农药的风险等级进行归类,采用点评估法评估了检出农药的慢性、急性膳食摄入风险,危害指数法(HI)计算了累积风险值。100例当归的总检出率为95%,共检出27种农药,其中甲拌磷和毒死蜱的检出率较高,农药残留量为0.0010~1.4077 mg/kg。依据《中国药典(2020年版)》和GB 2763-2021,检出农药中只有甲拌磷、甲基异柳磷、特丁硫磷有最大残留限量(MRL)值,其中甲拌磷的超标率最高。风险排序结果表明,高风险农药为甲拌磷、特丁硫磷、甲基异柳磷。膳食摄入风险和累积风险结果显示,检出农药的慢性膳食摄入风险(%ADI)和急性膳食摄入风险(%ARfD)平均值分别为0.2908%和0.0978%,均远低于100%;慢性累积暴露危害指数(HIc)和急性累积暴露危害指数(HIa)分别为0.06689和0.01173,均远小于1,慢性和急性膳食摄入风险及累积风险均处于可接受水平。当归中检出农药的膳食摄入和累积暴露的风险均较低,但仍需加强对农药使用的监管,建议制定当归中检出的中等风险农药的MRL值。

东海三门湾主要海产品中典型重金属累积状况

为探究我国东海三门湾主要养殖海产品重金属累积状况,评估当地沿海居民因海产品摄入导致的重金属健康风险,并以此了解海产品中重金属的累积特异性,本研究于2022年10月—12月选取三门湾养殖场进行取样,共取76份样本,包含10个品种,分析样品中总砷、无机砷、总镉、总铅和总汞这几种典型重金属含量,采用单因子污染指数评估这10种海产品受重金属污染的情况,应用目标危害系数及复合危害系数评估当地沿海居民长期食用海产品的健康风险,同时对海产品中无机砷的赋存形态展开讨论。结果表明仅部分虾蛄、梭子蟹中镉含量高于限量值(3.0 mg·kg^(-1)),所有样品中的无机砷、铅和汞的含量均低于限量值。不同种类的海产品对重金属累积存在显著差异,这10种海产品除受到镉不同程度的污染外,另外3种重金属污染均处于正常水平,当地沿海居民长期摄入这10种海产品由重金属引起的健康风险属于低关注级别。每种海产品中的无机砷含量低于总砷含量的5%,且与总砷含量之间表现出弱相关性。本研究可为了解三门湾养殖海产品的重金属污染状况及为评价当地沿海居民食用三门湾养殖海产品引起的重金属暴露风险提供科学依据,同时也可为了解海产品中重金属累积特异性和重金属安全限量值的研究提供基础科学信息。

基于钻屑量界限方程的冲击危险性判定新方法

为提高钻屑法判定冲击危险性的精度,基于钻屑法原理及评价指标,对实际钻屑量数据进行拟合,提出一种基于钻屑量界限方程的冲击危险性判定方法(以下简称“钻屑量界限方程方法”):利用实际钻屑量自回归判定冲击危险性,将钻屑法判定冲击危险性分区细化为冲击危险区、潜在冲击危险区和无冲击危险区。以古城煤矿3208工作面运输巷为工程背景进行了应用,结果表明:钻屑量界限方程方法与现场动力效应及微震监测指标判定结果相符,可有效提高钻屑法判定冲击危险性的精度,减少误判。

安徽省干旱危险性评价及等级划分

区域干旱危险性评价是实现旱灾风险管理的基础,可为防旱减灾工作提供科学有效的决策依据。选取安徽省104个县级行政区的水资源量和降水量数据,采用指标综合评估法构建了基于危险性指数的干旱危险性定量评价方法,对安徽省各县区的干旱危险性进行了评价,得到了安徽省干旱危险性等级分布图。结果表明:基于水资源量和降水量数据的计算结果绘制的县域干旱危险性区划图中,除个别县区的危险性等级分布有所差异外,安徽省干旱危险性等级分布由北到南逐渐降低;安徽省干旱危险性程度的总体变化趋势与其自然地理分布紧密相关,并且受到社会发展的影响。研究结果可为安徽省旱灾风险区划提供支撑。

琼北玛珥火山的结构特征及其对喷发历史和火山灾害的启示

作为陆地和海岛上第二常见的火山类型,玛珥火山相关区域内生活着大约10%的世界人口,因此玛珥火山灾害研究具有重要科学意义。琼北地区发育的第四纪玛珥火山,是天然的研究对象。根据琼北地区卫星影像、数字高程模型和实地测量结果,确定了11座玛珥火山的形态学特征。结果表明,琼北地区玛珥火山具圆形、椭圆形和三联点形三类平面形态,其面积0.01~3.42km2,周长0.43~6.64km,平均直径128~2128m,深度8~50m,喷出物体积(致密岩石当量,DRE)共计2.2km^(3),初始岩浆碎屑体积(DRE)共计1.7km^(3),爆炸能量1.2×10^(13)~6.4×10^(16)J,能量转换率则在1%~2%之间。玛珥火山活动可分成三期,第一期杨花岭、儒黄岭和那有岭的火山活动持续了6.35~0.11kyr;第二期陈永岭、石岭、罗经盘、玉墩岭和同类岭的火山活动持续了1.06~0.02kyr;第三期好秀岭、双池岭东岭和西岭的火山活动持续了仅16~0.3yr。石山-永兴一带的区域应力场控制着玛珥火山的拉伸方向。根据最新一期火山爆炸点的侧向迁移轨迹预测下一次爆炸点位于双池岭西岭向西约100~200m处。玛珥火山灾害类型多样,有地震、火山灰云、火山灰空落沉积、基浪涌流、火山弹和火山块喷射、火山泥流、火山气体和身体心理创伤等。喷发情景建模表明琼北火山喷发所产生的火山灰影响区域包括我国海南北部、广东和广西南部、台湾南部,以及越南东部,具体影响范围取决于喷发特征和实时气候。综上所述,我们制定了琼北火山灾害的危险性区划图,并建议对全国火山进行详细形态学调查,建立有代表性的典型案例,作为预测未来火山爆发、预防火山灾害的参考指南。

基于“三图法”的纳林河二号矿井顶板突水危险性评价

我国西北地区侏罗系煤田普遍受到顶板水害的威胁,影响矿山安全生产。以纳林河二号矿井3^(-1上)103工作面为例,提供一种有效的顶板水害评估方法。通过建立水文地质剖面并应用“三图法”理论,分析了影响煤层顶板砂岩含水层富水性的主控因素,包括砂岩含水层厚度、渗透系数、脆塑性岩厚度比和岩心采取率。运用层次分析法(AHP)对主控因素的权重进行了科学定量,基于富水性指数评估了含水层富水性,并获得了顶板冒裂安全性及突水危险性。通过与音频电透视技术获取的低阻异常区对比,初步验证了所提方法的可靠性。研究结果为纳林河二号矿井3^(-1上)103工作面安全回采提供依据,对于指导类似地区的顶板水害预防和控制具有参考价值。