Assessment and Countermeasures for Offshore Wind Farm Risks Based on a Dynamic Bayesian Network

Wind power is a kind of clean energy promising significant social and environmental benefits, and in The Peoples Republic of China, the government supports and encourages the development of wind power as one element in a shift to renewable energy. In recent years however, maritime safety issues have arisen during offshore wind power construction and attendant production processes associated with the rapid promotion and development of offshore wind farms. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out risk assessment for phases in the life cycle of offshore wind farms. This paper reports on a risk assessment model based on a Dynamic Bayesian network that performs offshore wind farms maritime risk assessment. The advantage of this approach is the way in which a Bayesian model expresses uncertainty. Furthermore, such models permit simulations and reenactment of accidents in a virtual environment. There were several goals in this research. Offshore wind power project risk identification and evaluation theories and methods were explored to identify the sources of risk during different phases of the offshore wind farm life cycle. Based on this foundation, a dynamic Bayesian network model with Genie was established, and evaluated, in terms of its effectiveness for analysis of risk during different phases of the offshore wind farm life cycle. Research results show that a dynamic Bayesian network method can perform risk assessments effectively and flexibly, responding to the actual context of offshore wind power construction. Historical data and almost real-time information are combined to analyze the risk of the construction of offshore wind power. Our results inform a discussion of security and risk mitigation measures that when implemented, could improve safety. This work has value as a reference and guide for the safe development of offshore wind power.

Study on Risk Assessment of Summer Rainstorm Disaster and Countermeasures for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Shaoyang City

Using summer(June-August)precipitation observation data in 10 representative stations of Shaoyang City during 1971-2021 and disaster data caused by summer rainstorm in nine counties(cities)and four districts of Shaoyang during 1981-2021,statistical analysis on summer rainstorm and its caused disaster in Shaoyang was conducted,and spatial and temporal characteristics of summer rainstorm and spatial distribution rule of disaster were found out.The results showed that(1)the rainstorm disaster in Shaoyang City occurs almost every year and is highly seasonal.(2)Rainstorm disaster loss is the first of other meteorological disasters.(3)The summer rainstorm disaster has the characteristics of sudden and destructive.On this basis,the relative grades of rainstorm disaster risk degree and disaster loss degree were divided,and the risk assessment of rainstorm and flood disaster in Shaoyang City was made,and the disaster prevention and mitigation measures and countermeasures were put forward.The research could provide scientific decision basis for party and government departments guiding flood fighting and disaster relief.

Considerations on Research of Environmental Risk Prevention and Control in “12th Five-Year Plan” Period

Along with the environmental pollution causes complexity and diversity increases ceaselessly, “national environmental protection” Twelfth Five “planning” (hereinafter referred to as “planning”) will be the environmental risk prevention as the “12th Five-Year Plan” one of the important tasks, including advancing environmental risk management in the whole process, key areas the environmental risk prevention measures. The whole process environmental risk management covers a risk source recognition, receptor vulnerability assessment, environmental risk characterization, risk decision and risk assessment of accident loss. This article from the environmental risk source classification, environmental risk classification management, environmental emergency response and environmental risk and insurance environment four aspects put forward the “12th Five-Year Plan” whole process environmental risk management content, to further reduce our country environmental pollution accident risk and policy makers to provide some decision support.

化工园区合规化建设存在的问题及对策措施研究

通过对化工园区合规化的咨询工作总结和实践,分析了目前化工园区在认定及安全风险等级评估过程中存在的问题,并从选址规划与布局、准入和退出机制、配套功能设施、安全管理与应急救援体系、环保监管等方面提出了针对性的对策与建议,可为化工园区合规化建设提供指导。

安徽主要粮食作物天气指数保险模型研究与应用

气象灾害是农业生产面临的主要风险之一,给农业安全生产带来巨大损失。农业保险是农业保障体系的重要组成部分,是有效分散农业风险或弥补灾害损失的重要救灾手段之一。20世纪90年代后期出现的天气指数保险,因其客观、标准化和流通性强等特点在全球引起广泛关注、研究与应用。本文在回顾了国内外天气指数保险技术的发展历程基础上,详细分析了天气指数保险与传统农业保险的差异,以及各自的优势与劣势;以安徽粮食作物(冬小麦、一季中稻、夏玉米)生长过程中特定农业气象灾害的天气指数保险为例,介绍天气指数模型研制与产品开发。通过天气指数农业保险产品在安徽多年实践应用,探索天气指数模型的改进方法,以降低基差风险;并对天气指数保险未来发展进行探讨与展望。

医院突发环境事件风险评估及管控措施研究

为有效防范突发环境事件,降低医院突发环境风险,以重庆某医院为例,对医院突发环境事件风险评估的要点进行简要分析。通过风险识别、分析和评价三方面对医院进行环境风险评估,分析了医院主要风险物质、环境风险事件类型及特点、突发环境事件情景和后果,并结合医院环境风险特点和现有管理及处置措施,提出了医院突发环境风险事件管控对策,以期为医院环境风险评估报告编制以及医院或其他行业新冠疫情防控常态化下环境风险管控提供参考。

Catastrophe Risk Management for Electric Power Distribution Systems:An Insurance Approach

High-impact,low-probability catastrophes may cause equipment damage,customer outages and serious economic losses to an aging power distribution infrastructure with low redundancy and automation.To cope with catastrophe risks faced by distribution systems(DSs),insurance is proposed as a supplement to existing resilience enhancement measures,which can provide financial aid in recovery after disasters,as well as incentives to make DSs more resilient to potential hazards.This calls for a quantitative assessment for insurance pricing that can not only predict potential losses caused by future catastrophes but also evaluate the effect of risk management measures.In this paper,a four-module actuarial framework,including hazard,vulnerability,resilience,and insurance modules,is developed to assess the catastrophe risks of DSs.Based on Monte Carlo simulation(MCS)and mixed integer linear programming(MILP),the dynamic characteristics of disasters,random failures of equipment,control measures including fault isolation,load transfer,line patrolling,manual switching,and fault repair,are comprehensively incorporated in the premium determination of catastrophe insurance.Numerical simulations are performed on the modified IEEE 33-bus test systems to illustrate the validity of the proposed catastrophe insurance schemes.

城市内涝低洼风险区损失评估及预防对策分析

城市内涝是城市面临的重要自然灾害之一,由于城市化进程中土地利用的不合理以及气候变化等因素的影响,加剧了城市内涝问题的严重性。低洼区域往往是内涝发生的高风险区域,严重影响了城市的正常运行和居民的生活质量。因此,评估城市内涝低洼区的损失并制定相应的预防对策至关重要。本文通过对城市内涝低洼风险区的损失评估与预防对策的分析,旨在提供科学有效的方法来应对城市内涝风险。

新增药物临床试验机构及新增专业运行的风险分析

自2019年12月药物临床试验机构备案制管理实施以来,临床试验机构及专业的备案数量持续增长,有效解决了当前我国临床研究资源短缺的问题,为我国在医药创新领域取得新突破、新进展奠定了基础。同时新备案机构及新专业的大量涌入对药物临床试验的质量带来的潜在风险也不容忽视。为促进药物临床试验机构的良性发展,提高药物临床试验的质量,本文从机构、组织管理部门、伦理委员会、专业运行管理、Ⅰ期临床试验研究室、质量管理体系等方面分析了新增药物临床试验机构及其专业存在的风险,探讨提升其临床试验能力和质量的策略。

生态环境损害赔偿适用环境污染强制责任保险的检视与重构

环境污染强制责任保险在我国已经推行实施十年有余,但从实践情况来看,该种保险并未表现出广泛适用的强劲势头,市场发展缓慢。通过对环境污染强制责任保险适用于生态环境损害在我国立法和发展中的实践情况进行分析反思,指出存在的问题并分析原因,并在此基础上提出在立法、理顺环境污染强制责任保险适用生态环境损害的内在关系、规范保险内容、优化风险评估机制以及配套制度建设等方面来完善环境污染强制责任保险在生态环境损害中的适用。

矿山地质灾害危险性评估及治理对策

矿山地质灾害是由矿业活动与自然地质作用共同引发的,而矿山生态环境也会因为地质灾害受到影响,从而导致人类的生命财产安全受到损失,并发生破坏人类生存环境和资源的灾害事件。当前,随着我国经济的快速发展,科技水平不断提高,各产业对矿物资源的使用率也日益提升,这给矿业产业提供了新的发展机会,采矿事业也日渐繁荣。因此,在矿业活动过程中,对地质灾害的危险性进行有效评估至关重要。这一举措不仅关乎矿业生产的安全与稳定,更是保障人员生命财产安全、维护生态平衡的重要一环。以此为基础,本文对矿山地质灾害危险性评估和治理对策进行了深入分析和全面地探讨。

Cyberattack Ramifications, The Hidden Cost of a Security Breach

In this in-depth exploration, I delve into the complex implications and costs of cybersecurity breaches. Venturing beyond just the immediate repercussions, the research unearths both the overt and concealed long-term consequences that businesses encounter. This study integrates findings from various research, including quantitative reports, drawing upon real-world incidents faced by both small and large enterprises. This investigation emphasizes the profound intangible costs, such as trade name devaluation and potential damage to brand reputation, which can persist long after the breach. By collating insights from industry experts and a myriad of research, the study provides a comprehensive perspective on the profound, multi-dimensional impacts of cybersecurity incidents. The overarching aim is to underscore the often-underestimated scope and depth of these breaches, emphasizing the entire timeline post-incident and the urgent need for fortified preventative and reactive measures in the digital domain.

建设工程造价的风险评估与应对措施研究

建设工程是城市发展的重要组成部分,每一个建设工程的成功完成都离不开合理的造价预算和有效的风险评估。然而,由于工程项目的复杂性和不确定性,使得造价风险评估和应对措施成为了需要重点关注的问题。就目前而言,在建设工程的整个过程中,造价的风险源是多样的,可以来自建设材料的价格波动、设计修改、决策失误、合同争议等多个方面。为此,本研究以建设工程造价的风险评估和应对措施为主题进行深入讨论和研究,旨在为实际操作者提供具有指导意义的应用方法,以达到规避风险、降低造价、提高项目经济效益的目标。

某机械加工企业安全生产风险评估模型与对策研究

针对某机械加工企业的安全生产问题,旨在构建一套切实有效的风险评估模型,同时提出针对性的安全管理对策。为准确评估和预测企业内潜在的安全风险,采用故障树分析(FTA)和贝叶斯网络相结合的方法进行研究。不仅为该机械加工企业提供了科学的安全生产决策支持,也为类似企业的安全生产管理提供了参考与借鉴。

渤海某油田2D井区开发井项目漏失风险评价及工程对策研究

渤海区域作为中国海上油气田开发重要的海域之一,随着渤海油田勘探开发的不断深入,面临着多重潜在井漏风险。以渤海某油田2D井区为研究对象,以钻井地质日报为基础,综合应用多种资料及技术方法,运用了Geoframe软件分析得出的常规剖面、方差剖面、蚂蚁体剖面以及测录井曲线,对渤海某油田2D井区的裂缝性漏失、薄弱地层漏失和工程漏失进行综合而深入的风险评价。结果表明:研究区累计完钻探井3口,漏失率66.7%,完钻开发井12口,漏失率50%;漏失层位集中在东三段、东二段,漏失类型归结为3类(裂缝性、薄弱地层、工程漏失);断层、裂缝是井漏易于发生的重要地质因素,新井预测及优化应尽量规避近东西向断层,确需过断层建议在浅层穿越断层,需东营组过断层的应尽量垂直断层减小轨迹与断层接触,应按从大原则给出风险段,利于钻井作业做好充分准备,避免速度偏差引发的风险点预测偏差。通过系统性的研究,为渤海区域的油气勘探与开发提供科学的决策支持,降低漏失风险,推动油气产业在这一关键区域的安全高效发展。

黄埔区超标准洪水风险分析及防御对策研究

城市超标准洪水严重威胁区域经济社会和生命财产的安全,该研究以经济发达、人口密度高的广州市黄埔区为研究对象,通过构建区域二维水动力数学模型,分别计算了50年一遇重现期下,主要河道及水库出现漫堤、溃堤、溃坝等情况下区域的洪水淹没情况,确定了主要受灾区域,并针对性地提出了防御对策。研究成果表明,堤防漫堤导致南岗河淹没最严重,需要对等级在5级以下的4.4 km堤防进行达标加固;平岗河是堤防溃决风险最大的河流,其次是细陂河和凤凰河,需要重点防御;水库溃坝导致距离溃口近和地势低洼地区的淹没水深大,风险等级高,需从监测预警、应急响应、避险转移以及救援保障等方面对该区域加强防御,研究成果可为区域应对超标准洪水提供技术支撑。

广元市饮用水水源地水质评价及对策建议

分析2022年广元市市级、县级、农村“万人千吨”集中式饮用水水源地水质评价和健康风险评价发现,广元市集中式饮用水水源地水质状况整体良好,重金属元素含量符合水质标准。但个别水源地水质未达标,主要污染因子为总大肠菌群数、高锰酸盐指数、总磷。在致癌物健康风险评价中发现,市级和县级集中式饮用水水源地砷的健康风险为Ⅰ级,农村“万人千吨”饮用水水源地中有10个水源地砷的健康风险等级为Ⅰ级,24个水源地砷的健康风险等级为Ⅱ级。无论从水质评价还是健康风险评价来看,农村饮用水水源地状况都不如市级和县级饮用水水源地。本文分析出现差异的原因,并给出相应的对策建议。

基于财务共享模式下保险公司内部控制优化研究

财务共享模式在保险公司内部控制中具有重要作用。本研究通过分析财务共享的特点,探讨了其对内部控制的影响,并深入剖析了保险公司在财务共享模式下存在的内部控制问题。在此基础上,提出了一系列优化对策,以提升业务与财务融合度、完善人力资源管理机制、优化财务共享风险评估管理机制、优化财务共享内部控制活动、以及优化财务共享信息沟通机制。通过实施这些对策,可以有效提高保险公司内部控制的效能和水平。

Probabilistic Seismic Risk Assessment in Manizales,Colombia: Quantifying Losses for Insurance Purposes

A fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment was developed in Manizales, Colombia, considering assets of different types. The first type includes elements that are part of the water and sewage network, and the second type includes public and private buildings. This assessment required the development of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that accounts for the dynamic soil response,assembling high resolution exposure databases, and the development of damage models for different types of elements. The economic appraisal of the exposed assets was developed together with specialists of the water utilities company of Manizales and the city administration. The risk assessment was performed using several Comprehensive Approach to Probabilistic Risk Assessment modules as well as the R-System, obtaining results in terms of traditional metrics such as loss exceedance curve, average annual loss, and probable maximum loss. For the case of pipelines, repair rates were also estimated. The results for the water and sewage network were used in activities related to the expansion and maintenance strategies, as well as for the exploration of financial retention and transfer alternatives using insurance schemes based on technical,probabilistic, and prospective damage and loss estimations.In the case of the buildings, the results were used in the update of the technical premium values of the existing collective insurance scheme.

基于风险评估的煤矿企业安全生产责任保险费率厘定

为充分发挥煤矿企业安全生产责任保险(简称安责险)的事故预防功能,实现不同企业的差别费率,首先分析了煤矿企业安责险的费率构成,然后从矿井自然条件、防控措施、人员、装备、环境、安全管理、应急救援方面建立了包含7个二级指标和40个三级指标的煤矿企业安全生产综合风险评估模型,并采用定量风险评估结合修正法厘定煤矿企业安责险费率,最后以某煤矿企业为例进行安责险年度保费计算。结果表明:本方法厘定的煤矿企业安责险费率与煤矿企业的实际风险状况较一致,保险费用更容易被煤矿企业所接受。该研究结果为企业安责险费率的厘定提供了新思路,可为政府引导保险机构进行风险管控及事故预防服务、确定合适的安责险费率提供参考,助力我国煤矿企业安责险的高质量实施。