Assessment on Energy Self-Sufficiency Rate for Building Integrated Photovoltaics and Fuel Cell System in Japan

A building integrated photovoltaic (PV) and fuel cell (FC) system is proposed for assessment of the energy self-sufficiency rate in a city in Japan. The electricity consumed in the building is mainly supplied by solar panels, while the gap between the energy demand and supply is solved by the FC that is powered by the H2 produced by water electrolysis with surplus power of PV. A desktop case study of using the proposed system in Tsu city which is located in central part of Japan, has been conducted. The results found that the self-sufficiency rates of PV system to electricity demand of households (RPV) during the daytime in April and July are higher than those in January and October. The results also reveal that the self-sufficiency rate of FC system to the electricity demand (RFC) is 15% - 38% for the day when the mean amount of horizontal solar radiation is obtained in January, April, July and October. In addition, it is found the optimum tilt angle of solar panel installed on the roof of the buildings should be 0 degree, i.e., placed horizontally.

China’s Proactive Fiscal Policy

In contrast to the traditional Western approach to macro-fiscal management,China’s proactive fiscal policy is founded on a people-centered development philosophy and,with distinctive Chinese characteristics,is a significant policy innovation of macroeconomic management in the Chinese modernization.Although there are notable distinctions between the Western“Keynesian”and the“nonKeynesian”schools of thought,both of these approaches’core policy goals and methodological roots are the same,composing the traditional Western macro-fiscal approach.This approach faces increasing real dilemmas.China’s proactive fiscal policy,however,places greater emphasis on future potential growth rates in addition to equilibrium between supply and demand,achieving a fiscal policy transformation with a new approach.In this paper we argue that with such a new approach,China should reconsider the nature and reasonable level of the fiscal deficit,the function and risk assessment criteria of government debt,the scope and effects of reductions in taxes and fees,its approach and focus of demand management,and the costs and resulting efficiencies of policies in order to develop a new fiscal policy paradigm that is more in line with its stated goals.

养老保险全国统筹:差别缴费率抑或统一缴费率?——基于基金可持续性与财政责任视角

2022年1月1日,我国启动实施余缺调剂的养老保险全国统筹制度,要求在全国范围内实现养老保险“五统一”,但我国养老保险缴费率还未统一。随着全国统筹政策的推进,在全国范围内是继续维持差别缴费率还是统一缴费率,是值得深入探讨的问题。本文借鉴税收领域的拉弗曲线,构建计量与精算模型,从基金可持续性与财政责任视角研究发现:(1)养老保险政策缴费率与实际缴费率之间存在倒U型关系,拐点处的政策缴费率为27.6%。(2)如果继续维持差别缴费率,余缺调剂的养老保险全国统筹制度可实施至2041年,2024—2050年累计财政责任为7423524.546亿元。(3)如果统一缴费率,余缺调剂的养老保险全国统筹制度仍可实施至2041年,2024—2050年累计财政责任为6488988.037亿元,相较于差别缴费率,累计财政责任下降12.6%。(4)进一步引入延迟法定退休年龄政策,在统一缴费率的情形下,2024—2050年累计财政责任下降14.1%—54.4%。(5)执行养老保险基金全国统收统支制度,在统一缴费率并实施延迟法定退休年龄政策的情形下,相较于全国统筹制度,2024—2050年累计财政责任下降3.3%—9.2%。综上,在基金可持续性的基础上,为缓解财政压力,应推动养老保险缴费率的全国统一,并逐步推进延迟法定退休年龄政策,实现养老保险基金全国统收统支。

金融发展、税收中性与企业税负

“十四五”规划指出要健全符合高质量发展要求的财税金融制度。本文关注税收中性和税收稳定器在微观企业的实践和表现,以阐述和论证金融发展对企业实际税收负担的影响机制。基于内生经济增长模型,引入金融发展和企业投资成本的概念,进行理论分析发现,在中国经济的实际特征下,随着金融发展程度的提高,地方政府通过降低企业的实际税率来扩大企业产出,从而推动社会福利最优化。经验证据表明,较高金融发展水平使企业融资成本降低,鼓励企业选择债务融资机制,有利于降低企业投资成本,提高企业经济效益和利润。这也有利于地方政府增加税收收入,缓解财政压力,并进一步降低企业税负,从而再次推动企业产出的扩大。研究结果表明,当金融发展水平提高10%,该地区企业所得税、增值税和总体税负的实际税率将分别减少1.59%、0.76%、1.02%。本文的结论可为壮大市场主体、提升政府宏观治理能力以及深化财税金融体制改革提供参考和建议。

Modelling the Iranian Petroleum Contract fiscal regime using bargaining game theory to guide contract negotiators

Based on Iran's sixth development plan,the country's oil and gas industry requires an investment of about$200 bn in the next five years to increase production.The Iranian government,to attract and motivate international oil company investment in their oil and gas fields,has presented a new type of risk service contract:the Iranian Petroleum Contract(IPC).This paper summarizes the features of the IPC and presents mathematical models of its fiscal regime for the benefit and guidance of both the National Iranian Oil Company(NIOC)and the contractors.Next,adopting bargaining game theory provides a mathematical model for reaching a win-win situation between the NIOC and the contractor.Finally,a numerical example is given and a sensitivity analysis performed to illustrate the implementation of the proposed models.The contractor and the NIOC may use these models when preparing their proposal and in the course of actual negotiations to calculate their internal rate of return,remuneration fee,and net present value for developing the fields at different conditions of their bargaining power,and derive a logical bargain to protect their best possible interests.

From Government to Enterprises： How Tax Sharing Interacts with Tax Rates

Tax sharing embodies central-local government fiscal relations and tax rates reflect government-market relations.Research on the interactions between tax sharing and tax rates helps uncover the effects of central-local fiscal relations on government-market relations.According to our study,China's flexible tax sharing and differential tax rates facing firms are two important typical facts;theoretical analysis discovered that effective corporate tax rates are influenced by local government preferences and tax sharing ratio;empirical analysis found that increasing CIT and VAT sharing ratios for governments at city and county levels led to the reduction of tax evasion and increase of effective tax rates.The above conclusions have revealed the unique mechanism of how government-market relations are influenced by fiscal system,explains the sources of differential tax rates facing Chinese firms,and provides reference for next-step fiscal reform.

Energy Assessment of Building Integrated Photovoltaics and Fuel Cell Systems: Design Study for Building(s) of Mie, Japan

A building integrated energy system (photovoltaic (PV) and fuel cell (FC)) is proposed for assessment of the energy self-sufficiency rate in five cities of Mie prefecture in Japan. In this work, it is considered that the electricity requirement of the building is provided by the building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) system and the gap between the energy demand and BIPV supply is fulfilled by the FC. The FC is powered by the electrolytic H2 produced from the surplus power of PV. A design study of using the proposed system in five cities in Mie prefecture, which are in center part of Japan, has been performed. It has been observed that the monthly power production from BIPV is higher in spring and summer, while it is lower in autumn and winter at all considered locations. The self-sufficiency rate of the FC system is higher with decreasing households’ number and it has been observed that the 12 households are more suitable for full cover of the electricity demand by the combined system of PV and FC. The relationship between the households’ number and self-sufficiency rate of the FC system per solar PV installation area can be expressed by exponential curve. The coefficient of the exponential curve can predict the suitable city for the BIPV system with FC system utilizing electrolytic H2 generated by using excess energy from the PV system.

Energy Characteristics of an Integrated Power Generation System with Photovoltaic and Fuel Cell

An integrated energy system (with photovoltaic (PV) and fuel cell (FC) for building) is proposed and assessed in term of its energy self-sufficiency rate in seven cities (Nagoya, Toyota, Tajimi, Takayama, Ogaki, Hamamatsu, Shizuoka) in Tokai region in Japan in this paper. In this work, it is considered that the electricity requirement of the building for household users is provided by a building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) system and the gap between the energy demand and BIPV supply is fulfilled by the FC. The FC is powered by the electrolytic H2 produced when PV power was in surplus. Based on the study of applying the proposed system in seven cities, which clarifies the effectiveness of the integrated BIPV, electrolytic H2 and FC power generation system, a universal system model has been developed in this paper. It has been observed that the monthly power production from BIPV as well as FC system are higher in spring and summer, while they are both lower in autumn and winter at all considered locations. The self-sufficiency rate of the FC system is higher with decreasing households’ number and it has been observed that 16 is the most appropriate number of households in a building, whose electricity demand could be fully covered by the integrated PV and FC system. Due to its climate condition, Hamamatsu is the best city in the region for installing the proposed system. The correlation between the households’ number and self-sufficiency rate of the FC system per solar PV installation area can be expressed by the regression curve in the form of y = ax-b well.

养老金缴费率、财政补贴和养老金替代率

在人口老龄化程度日渐加深,经济下行压力逐步加大的环境背景下,如何保证在刺激经济增长的同时维持已有的养老金待遇水平不降,成为各方所关注的热点和难点问题。构建含有财政支出结构的三期跨期一般均衡世代交叠模型,引入物质资本和人力资本作为中间影响渠道,探讨养老金缴费率、财政补贴养老金以及财政生产性内部支出结构变动与经济增长、养老金替代率的关系,并结合实际情况进行数值模拟和敏感性分析。研究表明:当财政生产性内部支出结构一定时,降低养老金缴费率会促进经济增长,养老金缴费率与养老金替代率的关系为倒“U”型;提高财政补贴养老金比例不利于经济增长,财政补贴养老金比例与养老金替代率的关系为倒“U”型。当维持养老金缴费率水平不变时,财政生产性内部支出结构比与经济增长率、养老金替代率的关系均是倒“U”型。基于主要结论,提出如下相关政策建议:正确认识社会保障和经济增长的关系,树立多目标协同发展的养老金制度改革理念;辩证看待财政补贴养老基金的政策效应,避免“一补就灵”的片面思维;精准把控财政支出结构调整对经济增长和社会保障的影响效应,做到养老金降费与财政支出结构调整相配合,从而更有力地推动经济增长和社会保障两大公共政策目标的实现。

“低利率”环境下财税政策调控效能检验与结构性政策工具选择

构建嵌入低利率环境并包含结构性财税政策的DSGE模型,结合中国宏观数据进行参数校准,检验并比较结构性财税政策在低利率环境下调控有效性。结果表明:低利率环境下不同类型财税政策工具调控表现出不同效果。政府投资性支出、政府消费性支出和消费减税在低利率情形能有效提振经济,避免零利率下限约束。劳动减税与资本减税在低利率情形下会产生负面作用,分别表现出“劳苦悖论”和“节俭悖论”现象。因此,在低利率环境下需要分类对待财税政策工具调控效能,精准施策,进而提质增效。

基于惩罚分位回归模型的财政收入影响分析

财政收入的增长对促进国家经济社会的发展、提高居民生活水平具有重要影响。研究财政收入增长的核心影响因素和定量分析具有重要的理论和现实意义。利用分位数回归方法及Lasso型惩罚分位数回归方法对我国1990~2019年30年间的财政收入数据进行了实证研究。结果发现:税收总额是影响财政收入的核心因素,Lasso惩罚分位数回归与自适应Lasso惩罚分位数回归比最小二乘方法及分位数回归方法能更准确地反映税收总额对财政收入的影响。

消费异质性理论研究进展

在消费异质性框架下,经济政策的效果可能和传统代表性框架的预测有很大不同,但传统消费理论均忽视消费异质性问题。消费者类型的不同、家庭资产结构的差异以及消费者时间偏好率的不同都会导致消费异质性,并使得传统的财政政策产生新的效果。这对于新阶段中国宏观调控的有效性具有重要影响。因此,消费异质性问题具有深刻的理论和实践意义,将会成为消费问题中的前瞻性课题。

中国财政风险两大警戒线的测算研究

在国际金融危机仍在蔓延和深化的条件下,我国于2008年重启的积极财政政策将持续较长时间,但由此导致的财政风险将对积极财政政策能走多远产生重要影响。本文在模型推导基础上,对我国财政风险两大警戒线进行实证测算,认为运用《马约》中所谓的"国际警戒线"来判断中国财政风险状况并不科学合理。主要研究发现:(1)我国财政赤字率和公债负担率的警戒线分别约为4.05%、49.05%,这与《马约》中的财政标准有较大差异。(3)以测算出的财政风险两大警戒线为评判基准,发现目前我国财政风险状况尚处于可控的、安全的区间,如2008年我国实际的财政赤字率和公债负担率尚与警戒线值分别相差约3.68%和31.33%,即具有较大的政策回旋余地和操作空间。

中国各省区财政偿债能力的比较与演进:2005—2012

借鉴国际信用评级机构的主权信用评级管理经验,设计中国各省区财政偿债能力的分层指标体系,测算2005—2012年省域财政偿债能力的客观熵值法量化评级结果。研究表明,中国省际财政偿债能力持续走低,并呈现出从东到西逐级递减的阶梯状布局,从中央到省级以下政府示范延伸的非对称财权事权分配框架使得西部基层政府的偿债能力尤其孱弱,而东、西两大区域内部的偿债能力正逐步趋同。为此,亟需在财政部门组建地方政府债务监控机构,实现地方财政偿债风险的区域联动预警,以"事前设限、事中控管、事后调整"的"三位一体"式动态监管策略,强化地方财政偿债能力。

利率市场化对中国财政政策效应的影响——基于动态随机一般均衡的研究

参照Tsung-wu Ho(2001)假设政府财政支出的目标是实现居民效用最大化,将政府支出作为内生变量纳入新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型,分析和预测利率市场化进程中,均衡利率上升对中国财政政策效应的影响。模型的数值波动模拟显示,均衡利率上升能有效改善经济结构,减小产出和通胀面对技术冲击、财政与货币政策冲击的波动。脉冲响应结果显示,积极的财政政策对投资和消费存在挤出效应,但是短期内能够有效的促进经济增长。利率市场化进程中均衡利率上升使得消费和投资面对政府财政政策冲击时的挤出效应增强,但由于利率上升带来经济结构的调整,短期内政府支出冲击反而能更有效地刺激经济增长,长期内对产出的负向影响并没有明显增强。

影响我国中央政府国债依存度因素的实证分析

近来,国内有些学者认为我国积极财政政策应该淡出,然而温家宝总理提出新一届政府将继续实施积极财政政策。本文以改革开放以来为研究时间段,取国债依存度(Y)为因变量,滞后一期国债依存度(Y-1)、宏观税率(X1)、财政收入集中度(X2)为自变量,应用BOX-COX变换等统计工具揭示了它们之间的相关关系。研究结果提示,宏观税率对国债依存度的正向作用,弱于财政收入集中度的反向作用。

人口年龄结构、财政政策与中国高储蓄率

论文以1999—2009年的省际面板数据为样本,对人口年龄结构、财政影响与高储蓄率的关系进行了实证分析。研究发现:(1)影响我国高储蓄率的主要因素不是人口年龄结构,而是经济体的转型特征。(2)人口年龄结构对我国储蓄率的影响存在着明显的城乡差异,其中少儿抚养比对城镇居民储蓄率的影响为负,而对农村居民储蓄率的影响为正;老年抚养比对城镇居民储蓄率的影响为正,而对农村居民储蓄率的影响为负。(3)财政收支比重对城乡居民储蓄率的影响也存在着明显的差异,税收规模对城镇居民储蓄率的影响为正,而对农村居民储蓄率的影响为负;支出规模对城镇居民储蓄率的影响为负,而对农村居民储蓄率的影响为正。上述发现对于中国未来的改革取向具有重要的启示。

中国页岩气资源财税扶持政策对产业发展的影响

"十二五"以来国家出台了多项扶持政策以推动页岩气产业发展。2018年2月,在"十三五"页岩气财政补贴政策的基础上,国家有关部门又出台了页岩气资源税减征30%的税收优惠政策。按照目前6%的油气资源税征收税率,气价1.20元/m^3,单井综合成本5500万元/口(含地面500万元/口),单井最终可采储量分别按照0.6×10~8m^3、0.8×10~8m^3、1.0×10~8m^3和1.2×10~8m^3,对比分析资源税减征前后气井开发的经济效益指标。资源税减征30%后,对于单井最终可采储量1×10~8m^3的气井,内部收益率可提升1.1个百分点,生产成本降低约0.02元/m^3。若考虑页岩气财政补贴,在单井最终可采储量1×10~8m^3的情景下,内部收益率可达到10%以上。如果财政补贴和资源税减征等扶持政策到位,"十四五"期间埋深超过3500m的11×10^(12)m^3深层页岩气资源和埋深3500m以浅的5×10^(12)m^3低效页岩气资源有望实现有效开发。建议相关部门尽快落实"十四五"页岩气财政扶持政策,而页岩气勘探开发企业要合理优化页岩气开发部署和产量规模,加快深层、低效页岩气开发的示范试验,提升页岩气产量规模。

对我国近期最优税收负担率量值的大致估计

有关我国实际税收负担率的高低及其走向问题,一直是学术界争论不休的话题。文章首先从衡量税收负担率的指标体系、税收负担率区间选择的理论模型等问题出发,对世界各国税收负担率差异形成的原因进行了分析,然后对我国近期最优税收负担率的量值做了大致的估计。自20世纪90年代以来,我国的税收负担率一直稳定在10%～18%的水平,这与我国目前能够接受的最优税收负担率已相当接近。在这种情况下,如何使有限的财政收入得到更为有效地利用应该成为我国今后财税体制改革考虑的重点。

财政政策与经常项目赤字关系研究

经常项目赤字是货币危机或金融危机的主要原因之一。财政政策作为政府调控经常的一个重要政策工具 ,对经常项目有显著影响。本文从理论和实践上对财政政策与经常项目赤字之间的关系进行了深入研究。并且分析了当前我国所执行的扩张性的财政政策对我国经常项目的平衡可能产生的不利影响。