The withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Agreement and its impact on global climate change governance

The global community has prepared for the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Agreement since Donald Trump was elected as the president of the U.S. However, Trump's formal declaration of withdrawal still caused worldwide reaction. Trump will use the withdrawal to build his political reputation and to renegotiate the Paris Agreement despite its negative effects on the political credibility, international relationships, and potential long-term economic growth of the U.S. In general, the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Agreement will not change the development of low-carbon technologies and the transformation trend of the global climate governance regime. However, the long-term goals and international cooperation on climate change will be affected by budget cuts in American climate change research and the cancelation of donations from the multilateral environmental fund of the U.S. If the Paris Agreement is renegotiated, the common but differentiated principle of responsibility of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will be challenged again. Nevertheless, climate change governance remains a main theme of future sustainable development. Instead of national governments, local governments and non-governmental organizations will develop strategies for technical innovation and emphasize pragmatic cooperation, thus expanding their roles in climate change governance. The capacity building on climate change research and public awareness should be enhanced as a long-term objective of global climate change governance.

The impacts of U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the carbon emission space and mitigation cost of China, EU, and Japan under the constraints of the global carbon emission space

Based on the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and scenario analysis, the impacts of the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on the carbon emission space and mitigation cost in China, European Union (EU), and Japan are assessed under Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and 2
C scenarios due to the changed emission pathway of the U.S. The results show that, under the condition of constant global cumulative carbon emissions and a fixed burden-sharing scheme among countries, the failure of the U.S. to honor its NDC commitment to different degrees will increase the U.S. carbon emission space and decrease its mitigation cost. However, the carbon emission space of other parties, including China, EU, and Japan, will be reduced and their mitigation costs will be increased. In 2030, under the 2
C target, the carbon price will increase by 4.4e14.6 US$ t1 in China, by 9.7e35.4 US$ t1 in the EU, and by 16.0e53.5 US$ t1 in Japan. In addition, China, EU, and Japan will incur additional Gross Domestic Production (GDP) loss. Under the 2
C target, the GDP loss of China would increase by US$22.0e71.1 billion (equivalent to 16.4e53.1 US$ per capita), the EU's GDP loss would increase by US$9.4e32.1 billion (equivalent to 20.7e71.1 US$ per capita), and Japan's GDP loss will increase by US$4.1e13.5 billion (equivalent to 34.3e111.6 US$ per capita).

U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement: Reasons, impacts, and China's response

Applying qualitative and quantitative methods, this article explains the driving forces behind U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, assesses the impacts of this withdrawal on the compliance prospects of the agreement, and proposes how China should respond. The withdrawal undercuts the foundation of global climate governance and upsets the process of climate cooperation, and the impacts are manifold. The withdrawal undermines the universality of the Paris Agreement and impairs states' confidence in climate cooperation; it aggravates the leadership deficit in addressing global climate issues and sets a bad precedent for international climate cooperation. The withdrawal reduces other countries' emission space and raises their emission costs, and refusal to contribute to climate aid makes it more difficult for developing countries to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Cutting climate research funding will compromise the quality of future IPCC reports and ultimately undermine the scientific authority of future climate negotiations. China faces mounting pressure from the international community to assume global climate leadership after the U.S. withdraws, and this article proposes that China should reach the high ends of its domestic climate targets under the current Nationally Determined Contributions; internationally, China should facilitate the rebuilding of shared climate leadership, replacing the G2 with C5. Meanwhile, China needs to keep the U.S. engaged in climate cooperation.

基于S-CAD方法的宅基地退出试点政策评估——以成都市为例

政策评估结果是优化政策的重要依据。2019年修订的《土地管理法》新增了农民“自愿有偿退出宅基地”规定,作为一项新政策,宅基地退出政策的具体内容尚未明确,亟待通过对前期试点政策的评估,优化其政策设计。运用S-CAD政策评估方法,以统筹城乡综合改革试验区——成都市为研究案例,从政策本身和政策实施的视角评估宅基地退出试点政策,结果表明:提升乡村治理能力、市场化运作和协同推进相关政策有利于达成宅基地退出试点政策目标,但主导观点方价值观与政策目标逻辑不一致,政策手段无法充分实现政策目标,政策实施面临资金瓶颈、协同管理瓶颈和政策瓶颈等障碍,导致试点未取得预期结果。推进政策试点和政策创新,需从政策对象的视角进行思考,注重政策的系统性设计。下一步的宅基地退出政策,应坚持农民财产权和发展权双重保障的价值理念,完善相关规划和增减挂钩政策,出台集体建设用地抵押贷款支持政策、差异化的宅基地退出补偿政策及其他配套政策。

行动者网络视角下长江流域退捕渔民可持续生计重构——以歙县九砂村为例

为动态探究长江流域退捕渔民可持续生计重构过程,以及重构过程中多元主体的互动关系,文章基于行动者网络视角,以歙县九砂村为案例地,采用半结构化访谈与参与式观察等质性研究方法,讨论了可持续生计重构过程、模式及机制。研究发现,退捕渔民可持续生计重构以政府为关键行动者,涉及村委会、退捕渔民、市场主体等人类行动者和房屋、土地、乡土环境、人文风俗等非人类行动者,共同缔结成具有互动关系的行动者网络。政府主导、市场配置、村集体参与、退捕渔民为主体是一种典型的产业融合型可持续生计重构模式。在该模式下,退捕渔民生计资本、基层自治能力、政府政策、社会力量共同推动退捕渔民可持续生计重构。

Improve regression-based models for prediction of internal-bond strength of particleboard using Buckingham's pi-theorem

Internal bond （IB） strength is one of the most important me- chanical properties that indicate particleboard quality. The aim of this study was to find a simple regression model that considers the most important parameters that can influence on IB strength. In this study, IB strength was predicted by three kinds of equations （linear, quadratic, and exponential） that were based on the percentage of adhesive （8%, 9.5%, and 11%）, particle size （＋5, -5 ＋8, -8 12, and -12 mesh）, and density （0.65, 0.7, and 0.75 g/cm3）. Our analysis of the results （using SHAZAM 9 software） showed that the exponential function best fitted the experi- mental data and predicted the IB strength with 18~,/0 error. In order de- crease the error percentage, the Buckingham Pi theorem was used to build regression models for predicting IB strength based on particle size,

Thomas Chao’s Journalistic Activities and Influence on Increasing China’s Voice Worldwide

In the 1930s and 1940s,Thomas Chao,an internationally-renowned Chinese journalist,influenced Chinese journalists’way of covering and writing news with his own prominent experience in international news reporting.Based on his long-term news practice,Chao analyzed the differences between Chinese and Western press and explored the way for improvement.He called on the government to set up a national news agency so as to establish itself in the field of international communication,and helped the Central News Agency to take back Reuters’right to publish in China.Chao also actively promoted the exchange and cooperation between Chinese newspapers and news agencies and foreign press in international communication activities,striving to increase China’s voice worldwide.

The U.S. "Withdrawal" Destroys Implementation of the Iran Nuclear Agreement

U.S.President Trump announced on May 8th that the United States would unilaterally withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action for the Iran Nuclear Issue and restart sanctions against Iran.Countries such as China,Russia,Britain,France and Germany,etc.as well as International organizations such as the United Nations and the European Union,all expressed regret about the U.S.decision and hope to maintain the Agreement and the integrity and seriousness of the Agreement.

父母对儿童攻击和退缩行为的归因及其与父母情绪反应的关系

目的 :探讨中国父母对孩子攻击和退缩行为的归因和情绪反应的特点及其关系。方法 :从北京、保定和郑州随机选取 2 87名 1岁至 8岁儿童的父母 ,运用故事情境法对这些父母进行访谈。结果 :1 父母倾向于认为孩子的攻击行为与退缩行为不同 ,它是暂时的 ,而在“天性与环境”归因和目的性方面 ,这种差异很小。 2 父母关于攻击行为持续性的归因与“天性与环境”、目的性的归因的归因之间相关显著 ,关于退缩行为持续性的归因与关于“天性与环境”的归因相关显著。 3 父母对孩子行为的归因与他们对孩子的情绪反应密切相关。他们越倾向于将这种行为归因于与环境有关的、会持续下去的、孩子可以控制的因素 ,对消极社会行为所产生的消极情绪越强。结论 :父母对儿童的攻击行为与退缩行为的归因既有相似之处 ,又有不同之处 ,它们都与父母的情绪反应具有密切的关系。

中国沿海渔民转产转业的进展综述

本文对中国近年沿海渔民转产转业的情况进行了介绍与归纳,对7省的渔民数据进行了比较分析,以便吸取经验教训,为我国沿海渔民转产转业的进一步发展提供帮助。

社会转型中的民间组织研究——以战后青岛渔会为例

民国青岛渔会的成立,是渔民的内在需求和现代社团观念影响的结果。青岛渔会按照现代社团组织模式,建立起科层化的组织体系和管理方式,在服务会员、促进青岛渔业发展中起到了一定积极作用。不过,由于受到社会生态环境制约,渔会离其服务目标尚有很大差距。如何培育民间组织成长的良好环境,寻求民间组织在管理与功能上的突破,至今仍是一项十分繁难的任务。

《更路簿》的历史价值研究

《更路簿》作为我国民族海洋遗俗的一个重要组成部分,其所蕴含着更路精神与定量耕海的历史性传承等内容。更路精神既包含宏观的国家海疆意识与海洋文明的历史性精神传承;同时也包含着微观的渔人掌控驾驭海洋的技术内容。而渔人的掌控驾驭海洋也成为海洋文明一个重要内容。因为,此中不仅包含特定的渔人群体,同时也包含士商所辑录的与海有关的所有诗、史、书、志及簿等。民族海洋遗俗的传播途径既有民间的依赖于口耳相传的形式代代相承的,也有官方的通过士人所完成的有关海疆意识的辑录。所有的这些都能在历史性的耕海生产和生活当中不断地赋予新义,并形成一种持续不断的历史性经验累积过程。

政府主导型投资:结果与原因

投资可以分成市场主导型与政府主导型两类。政府主导型投资的进入成本更低,导致此类投资的项目规模更大,重复建设更加普遍;退出障碍更高,导致与之相关的预算软约束、地方保护问题严重。政府主导型投资可能会导致资源配置机制的重叠和替代,专有性权责联系的削弱以及社会总体福利损失。因此,改革的方向应包括:改革现有的政府投资管理、考核体制,强化在位官员的专有化权责约束;明确界定政府主导型投资的投资领域,减少其对民间投资市场的负面影响;推动金融领域的市场化改革———强化银行的独立性,发展多元化的非价格资源配置机制;积极转变政府职能,降低在位官员手中权力的多维性。

就业政策、非正式规范对退捕渔民替代生计策略选择的影响研究——基于湖南、安徽退捕渔民的调查

本文利用湖南和安徽两省9镇15村269户退捕渔民的入户调查数据,运用Probit模型估计就业政策和非正式规范对退捕渔民生计策略选择的影响。研究发现:无论是就业政策还是非正式规范都会在一定程度上影响退捕渔民替代生计策略选择。就业政策使退捕渔民选择农业主导型生计策略的概率提高了10.4%;非正式规范使退捕渔民选择务工主导型生计策略的概率提高了18.8%,并对退捕渔民选择农业主导型生计和补贴依赖型生计起负向影响作用。根据以上研究结果,建议政府部门加强对就业政策有效落地的监督管理,与此同时协调好非正式规范与就业政策在就业中的关系,依靠非正式规范构建更加完善的信息交流网络,形成与就业政策相互补充、相互支撑的互动机制。

论我国捕捞权制度

我国《物权法》中规定了捕捞权的相关内容,但不尽详尽。捕捞权兼有公权和私权的性质,应当进一步明确其双重保护制度,实现权力和权利的并存和配合。针对目前我国捕捞权制度的缺陷,可尝试建立捕捞权市场化流转、水域的渔业规划与公告制度,完善相关补偿制度,统一许可证书及其发证机关,平衡经济利益与环境利益,以保障代内、代际之间环境资源的公平分配,建立起一套完善的公私法融合的捕捞制度。

酒精戒断综合征误诊误治诱发Wernicke脑病一例

目的探讨酒精戒断综合征并Wernicke脑病的临床特点和鉴别诊断要点,以减少误诊误治。方法对酒精戒断综合征误诊误治诱发Wernicke脑病1例的临床资料进行回顾性分析,并进行文献复习。结果本例以抽搐伴意识不清2 h入院。2年前确诊为酒精性肝硬化。此次入院后按肝性脑病予门冬氨酸钾镁、支链氨基酸等治疗,当晚患者出现眼痛、意识不清、四肢抽搐,行MRI检查提示Wernicke脑病改变。修正诊断为酒精戒断综合征、Wernicke脑病。静脉予大剂量硫胺素治疗2周,病情好转出院。结论接诊既往有酗酒史的意识不清患者,应警惕酒精戒断综合征致Wernicke脑病的可能,及时予硫胺素治疗后方可应用葡萄糖注射液,以免加重病情。

长江流域渔民退捕补偿需求影响因素分析

2017年“中央1号文件”提出要“率先在长江流域水生生物保护区实现全面禁捕”,在此背景下退捕后的补偿问题关系到渔民的切身利益,成为亟需解决的重要问题。因此,充分掌握渔民补偿意愿以及如何合理采用补偿方式成为解决这一问题的关键。通过对四川,湖南两省实地调研,利用多元无序Logistics方法对渔民退捕补偿影响因素模型进行回归发现:年龄、受教育程度、捕捞收入及家庭人口与渔民选择补偿方式密切相关,政府部门应充分考虑补偿客体间的差异性,兼顾到补偿的公平与效率,制定不同的补偿政策,解决渔民退捕上岸的生计问题。

长江禁捕背景下退捕渔民就业机制研究——基于制度嵌入性视角

本文基于对湖南、安徽两省退捕渔民的深入访谈和269份调查数据,将退捕渔民实际就业情况嵌入到正式制度与非正式制度约束中。运用结构方程模型实证分析了制度嵌入对退捕渔民实际就业情况的影响路径。研究发现:(1)正式制度与非正式制度的嵌入都会对渔民就业产生影响,且非正式制度的影响更为显著,其中社会支持为关键影响因素;(2)学习能力和感知机会对渔民就业有重要影响,并且在制度嵌入与实际就业之间起到中介的作用。因此,应加强渔民就业环境的制度建设,合理协调正式制度与非正式制度间的关系。在正式制度嵌入下,建议开展高效的技能培训,对有创业意愿的渔民加大金融支持力度,建立健全渔民的社会保障机制。在非正式制度嵌入下,建议构建以渔民为主体的非正式组织,集中能人力量构筑渔村社会网络平台,实现就业资源的优化配置。

中国渔歌的保护和传承价值

渔歌是流传于中国沿海沿河地区的民间"山歌"。渔歌内容丰富、富有哲理,涉及渔民生活的各个方面,反映了渔区的风土人情,体现了渔民不同的思想道德观念,是纪录渔区社会历史和文化的档案和活字典。渔歌"没有书面记载,完全靠老一辈的口传心授。渔歌是我国沿海民间文学的重要组成部分,也是中华民族亟待保护的的非物质文化遗产。随着国家对非物质文化遗产保护和传承的重视,渔歌的艺术风格、人文价值、历史文化价值也逐渐被人们发现和重视。在当前现代化和城镇化进程不断加快的大背景下,如何抢救和保护这一原生态文化,不能让渔歌成为消失的记忆,正成为政府、民间及社会各界亟待解决的问题。

二十世纪七十年代的美韩同盟

美韩同盟对于保卫韩国、“遏制共产主义的扩张”发挥了重要作用。但70年代的美韩同盟却麻烦不断,撤军问题、人权问题及“韩国门丑闻”成为损害同盟关系的三大问题。虽然韩国“自主国防”的实施和经济实力的增强使其独立性增强,在同盟中的地位有了一定程度的提高,但韩国并没有彻底摆脱在政治、经济和军事上对美国的依赖,美国仍然占据同盟的主导地位。