A detailed understanding of the distribution and potential of natural gas hydrate(NGHs)resources is crucial to fostering the industrialization of those resources in the South China Sea,where NGHs are abundant.In this ...A detailed understanding of the distribution and potential of natural gas hydrate(NGHs)resources is crucial to fostering the industrialization of those resources in the South China Sea,where NGHs are abundant.In this study,this study analyzed the applicability of resource evaluation methods,including the volumetric,genesis,and analogy methods,and estimated NGHs resource potential in the South China Sea by using scientific resource evaluation methods based on the factors controlling the geological accumulation and the reservoir characteristics of NGHs.Furthermore,this study compared the evaluation results of NGHs resource evaluations in representative worldwise sea areas via rational analysis.The results of this study are as follows:(1)The gas hydrate accumulation in the South China Sea is characterized by multiple sources of gas supply,multi-channel migration,and extensive accumulation,which are significantly different from those of oil and gas and other unconventional resources.(2)The evaluation of gas hydrate resources in the South China Sea is a highly targeted,stratified,and multidisciplinary evaluation of geological resources under the framework of a multi-type gas hydrate resource evaluation system and focuses on the comprehensive utilization of multi-source heterogeneous data.(3)Global NGHs resources is n×10^(15)m^(3),while the NGHs resources in the South China Sea are estimated to be 10^(13)m^(3),which is comparable to the abundance of typical marine NGHs deposits in other parts of the world.In the South China Sea,the NGHs resources have a broad prospect and provide a substantial resource base for production tests and industrialization of NGHs.展开更多
The shallow shelf delta/strand arenaceous-pelitic deposit region in the north of the Pearl River mouth basin, sitting on the northern continental shelf of the South China Sea, has already become an important oil produ...The shallow shelf delta/strand arenaceous-pelitic deposit region in the north of the Pearl River mouth basin, sitting on the northern continental shelf of the South China Sea, has already become an important oil production base in China. Recent researched has revealed that a great deal of deep-water fans of great petroleum potentiality exist on the Baiyun deep-water slope below the big paleo Pearl River and its large delta. Based on a mass of exploration wells and 2-D seismic data of the shallow shelf region, a interpretation of sequence stratigraphy confirmed the existence of deep-water fans. The cyclic falling of sea level, abundant detrital matter from the paleo Pearl River and the persistent geothermal subsidence in the Baiyun sag are the three prerequisites for the formation and development of deep-water fans. There are many in common between the deep-water shelf depositional system of the northern South China Sea and the exploration hotspots region on the two banks of the Atlantic. For example, both are located on passive continent margins, and persistent secular thermal subsidence and large paleo rivers have supplied abundant material sources and organic matter. More recently, the discovery of the big gas pool on the northern slope of the Baiyun sag confirms that the Lower Tertiary lacustrine facies in the Baiyun sag has a great potentiality of source rocks. The fans overlying the Lower Tertiary source rocks should become the main exploration areas for oil and gas resources.展开更多
Natural gas hydrate(NGH)has attracted much attention as a new alternative energy globally.However,evaluations of global NGH resources in the past few decades have casted a decreasing trend,where the estimate as of tod...Natural gas hydrate(NGH)has attracted much attention as a new alternative energy globally.However,evaluations of global NGH resources in the past few decades have casted a decreasing trend,where the estimate as of today is less than one ten-thousandth of the estimate forty years ago.The NGH researches in China started relatively late,but achievements have been made in the South China Sea(SCS)in the past two decades.Thirty-five studies had been carried out to evaluate NGH resource,and results showed a flat trend,ranging from 60 to 90 billion tons of oil equivalent,which was 2-3 times of the evaluation results of technical recoverable oil and gas resources in the SCS.The big difference is that the previous 35 group of NGH resource evaluations for the SCS only refers to the prospective gas resource with low grade level and high uncertainty,which cannot be used to guide exploration or researches on development strategies.Based on the analogy with the genetic mechanism of conventional oil and gas resources,this study adopts the newly proposed genetic method and geological analogy method to evaluate the NGH resource.Results show that the conventional oil and gas resources are 346.29×10^(8)t,the volume of NGH and free dynamic field are 25.19×10^(4)km^(3) and(2.05-2.48)×10^(6)km^(3),and the total amount of in-situ NGH resources in the SCS is about(4.47-6.02)×10^(12)m^(3).It is considered that the resource of hydrate should not exceed that of conventional oil and gas,so it is 30 times lower than the previous estimate.This study provides a more reliable geological basis for further NGH exploration and development.展开更多
There have been at least 29 groups of estimates on the global natural gas hydrate(NGH)resource since1973,varying greatly with up to 10,000 times and showing a decreasing trend with time.For the South China Sea(SCS),35...There have been at least 29 groups of estimates on the global natural gas hydrate(NGH)resource since1973,varying greatly with up to 10,000 times and showing a decreasing trend with time.For the South China Sea(SCS),35 groups of estimations were conducted on NGH resource potential since 2000,while these estimates kept almost the same with time,varying between 60 and 90 billion tons of oil equivalent(toe).What are the key factors controlling the variation trend?What are the implications of these variations for the NGH development in the world and the SCS?By analyzing the investigation characteristics of NGH resources in the world,this study divided the evaluation process into six stages and confirmed four essential factors for controlling the variations of estimates.Results indicated that the reduction trend reflects an improved understanding of the NGH formation mechanism and advancement in the resource evaluation methods,and promoted more objective evaluation results.Furthermore,the analysis process and improved evaluation method was applied to evaluate the NGH resources in the SCS,showing the similar decreasing trend of NGH resources with time.By utilizing the decreasing trend model,the predicted recoverable resources in the world and the SCS are(205-500)×10^(12)m^(3)and(0.8-6.5)×10^(12)m^(3),respectively,accounting for 20%of the total conventional oil and gas resources.Recoverable NGH resource in the SCS is only about 4%-6%of the previous estimates of 60-90 billion toe.If extracted completely,it only can support the sustainable development of China for 7 years at the current annual consumption level of oil and gas.NGH cannot be the main energy resource in future due to its low resource potential and lack of advantages in recovery.展开更多
As an efficient clean energy,natural gas hydrate(NGH)has become a hot topic in recent researches.Since1990 s,China has made great achievements and progress in NGH exploration in the South China Sea(SCS),including dete...As an efficient clean energy,natural gas hydrate(NGH)has become a hot topic in recent researches.Since1990 s,China has made great achievements and progress in NGH exploration in the South China Sea(SCS),including determination of the favorable distribution areas and favorable strata thickness,identification of the dual source for accumulation,evaluation of the prospective gas contents,verification of the widespread existence,and confirmation of the technical recoverability of NGH resources.However,there are three major challenges in the NGH studies.First,all the 24 national key and major projects in the SCS focused on trial production engineering and geological engineering in the past 20 years,while 8 of the 10 international NGH research projects focused on resource potential.Second,resource evaluation methods are outdated and some parameter selection are subjective.Third,the existing resource evaluation results are low-level with a great uncertainty,and cannot be used to guide NGH exploration and production or strategic research.To improve the evaluation of NGH resources in the SCS,future researches should focus on four aspects:(1)improve the research on the criterion of the objective existence of NGH and the method of prediction and evaluation;(2)apply new theories and methods from the global NGH research;(3)boost the research on the difference and correlation of the conditions of hydrocarbon migration and accumulation in different basins;(4)innovate the theory and method of NGH resource potential evaluation.展开更多
Natural gas hydrate(NGH),considered as a type of premium energy alternative to conventional hydrocarbons,has been broadly studied.The estimate of the total NGH resources in the world has decreased by more than 90%sinc...Natural gas hydrate(NGH),considered as a type of premium energy alternative to conventional hydrocarbons,has been broadly studied.The estimate of the total NGH resources in the world has decreased by more than 90%since the first evaluation in 1973.Geographic and geophysical conditions of the South China Sea(SCS)are favorable for the formation of NGH,which has been proved by drilling results up to date.The recoverability of the NGH in the SCS has been confirmed by the production tests using both vertical and horizontal wells.Since 2001,35 estimates of NGH resources in the SCS have been made,with relatively stable results varying between 600 and 900×109 ton oil equivalent.In these estimations,the volumetric method was commonly adopted,but the geological conditions,the migration-accumulation mechanisms of NGH,and the practical recoverability were not considered.These estimates cannot be regarded as evaluated resources according to the international resource evaluation standards,but are at most about prospective gas content of NGH,thus inefficient for guiding explorations and developments.To solve these problems,this study divides the past NGH surveys in the SCS into seven stages,acquires key geological parameters of every stage based on previous studies and analogy with other areas,evaluates the NGH resources of these seven stages by using the volumetric method,then adopts a new trend-analysis method to simulate the downward trend of these estimates,and finally predicts the NGH resources in the SCS at 2025 and 2030.The downward trend is because of the continuous improvement of NGH understanding over time,which is consistent with the trend of global NGH estimates.At the present stage(from 2019 to 2021),the average technically recoverable resource(ATRR)is 7.0×10^(12)m^(3),and the estimates of 2025 and 2030 ATRR are 6.46×10^(12)m^(3) and 4.01×10^(12)m^(3)respectively,with a difference of less than 40%.Therefore,it can be inferred that the ATRR of NGH in the SCS is between 4.0 and 6.5×10^(12)m^(3),with an average of 5.25×10^(12)m^(3).展开更多
China Geological Survey conducted the second trial production of natural gas hydrate(NGH)in the Shenhu Area in South China Sea(SCS)from 2019 to 2020.Compared with the first trial production in 2017,the second trial sh...China Geological Survey conducted the second trial production of natural gas hydrate(NGH)in the Shenhu Area in South China Sea(SCS)from 2019 to 2020.Compared with the first trial production in 2017,the second trial showed significantly increased daily gas production and total gas production,and removed some technical obstacles for large-scale NGH resource developments in the SCS.However,current NGH resource evaluation in the SCS is still at the stage of prospective gas content assessment,which is unable to guide further NGH exploration and development.This study utilized the hydrate phase balance to delineate the NGH distribution range and effective thickness and volumetric method to evaluate NGH resource.Based on the latest exploration and production data from the Shenhu Area,Monte Carlo simulation was performed to calculate the NGH resource amount with different probabilities.By assuming a 50%cumulative probability,the in-situ NGH resources in the SCS was estimated to be11.7×10^(12)m^(3) and the recoverable NGH resources was 2.8×10^(12)m^(3).These results will provide a more reliable resource basis for China to formulate comprehensive development strategies for oil and gas exploration in the SCS.展开更多
Based on the biological data of purpleback flying squid(Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis)collected by light falling-net in the southern South China Sea(SCS) during September to October 2012 and March to April 2013,growth an...Based on the biological data of purpleback flying squid(Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis)collected by light falling-net in the southern South China Sea(SCS) during September to October 2012 and March to April 2013,growth and mortality of 'Medium' and 'Dwarf' forms of squid are derived using the Powell-Wetherall,ELEFAN methods and length-converted catch curves(FiSAT package).Given a lack of commercial exploitation,we assume total mortality to be due entirely to natural mortality.We estimate these squid have fast growth,with growth coefficients(k) ranging from 1.42 to 2.39,and high natural mortality(M),with estimates ranging from 1.61 to 2.92.To sustainably exploit these squid stocks,yield per recruitment based on growth and natural mortality was determined using the Beverton-Holt dynamic pool model.We demonstrate squid stocks could sustain high fishing mortality and low ages at first capture,with an optimal fishing mortality >3.0,with the optimal age at first capture increased to 0.4-0.6 years when fishing mortality approached optimal levels.On the basis of our analyses and estimates of stock biomass,we believe considerable potential exists to expand the squid fishery into the open SCS,relieving fishing pressure on coastal waters.展开更多
The process of Cenozoic sea-land changes in the northern South China Sea(SCS)controlled the sedimentary filling pattern and played an important role in the petroleum geological characteristics of the northern marginal...The process of Cenozoic sea-land changes in the northern South China Sea(SCS)controlled the sedimentary filling pattern and played an important role in the petroleum geological characteristics of the northern marginal sedimentary basins.Under the control of the opening process of the SCS,the northern SCS Cenozoic transgression generally showed the characteristics of early in the east and late in the west,and early in the south and late in the north.The initial transgression occurred in the Eocene in the Taixinan Basin(TXNB)of the eastern SCS,while the transgression occurred until the Pliocene in the Yinggehai Basin(YGHB)of the western SCS.International Ocean Discovery Program(IODP)expeditions(Expeditions 367/368)revealed that the initial transgression of the SCS basin occurred at approximately 34 Ma,which was the initial opening time of the SCS.The period of drastic changes in the sedimentary environment caused by large-scale transgression corresponded to the opening time of the southwestern subbasin(approximately 23 Ma),which also represented the peak of the spreading of the SCS.The sea-land transition process controls the distribution of alternating continent-marine facies,marine facies source rocks and reservoirs in the basins.The marine facies source rocks of the basins in the northern SCS have a trend of gradually becoming younger from east to west,which is consistent with the regional process of gradual transgression from east to west.Regional sea-level changes were comprehensively influenced by SCS opening and global sea-level changes.These processes led to the early development in the east and south and late development in the west and north for the carbonate platform in the SCS.Carbonate platforms form another type of"selfgenerating and self-accumulating"oil-gas reservoir in the northern SCS.The sea-land transition controlled the depositional filling patterns of different basins and laid the foundation of marine deposits for oil and gas resources.The source-reservoircap assemblage in the northern SCS was controlled horizontally by provenance supply and sedimentary environmental changes caused by sea-land transition and vertically by the tectonic evolution of the SCS and regional sea-level changes.展开更多
Gas hydrate research has significant importance for securing world energy resources, and has the potential to produce considerable economic benefits. Previous studies have shown that the South China Sea is an area tha...Gas hydrate research has significant importance for securing world energy resources, and has the potential to produce considerable economic benefits. Previous studies have shown that the South China Sea is an area that harbors gas hydrates. However, there is a lack of systematic investigations and understanding on the distribution of gas hydrate throughout the region. In this paper, we applied mineral resource quantitative assessment techniques to forecast and estimate the potential distribution of gas hydrate resources in the northern South China Sea. However, current hydrate samples from the South China Sea are too few to produce models of occurrences. Thus, according to similarity and contrast principles of mineral outputs, we can use a similar hydrate-mining environment with sufficient gas hydrate data as a testing ground for modeling northern South China Sea gas hydrate conditions. We selected the Gulf of Mexico, which has extensively studied gas hydrates, to develop predictive models of gas hydrate distributions, and to test errors in the model. Then, we compared the existing northern South China Sea hydrate-mining data with the Gulf of Mexico characteristics, and collated the relevant data into the model. Subsequently, we applied the model to the northern South China Sea to obtain the potential gas hydrate distribution of the area, and to identify significant exploration targets. Finally, we evaluated the reliability of the predicted results. The south seabed area of Taiwan Bank is recommended as a priority exploration target. The Zhujiang Mouth, Southeast Hainan, and Southwest Taiwan Basins, including the South Bijia Basin, also are recommended as exploration target areas. In addition, the method in this paper can provide a useful predictive approach for gas hydrate resource assessment, which gives a scientific basis for construction and implementation of long-term planning for gas hydrate exploration and general exploitation of the seabed of China.展开更多
The South China Sea(SCS)is the hotspot of geological scientific research and nature resource exploration and development due to the potential for enormous hydrocarbon resource development and a complex formation and e...The South China Sea(SCS)is the hotspot of geological scientific research and nature resource exploration and development due to the potential for enormous hydrocarbon resource development and a complex formation and evolution process.The SCS has experienced complex geological processes including continental lithospheric breakup,seafloor spreading and oceanic crust subduction,which leads debates for decades.However,there are still no clear answers regarding to the following aspects:the crustal and Moho structure,the structure of the continent-ocean transition zone,the formation and evolution process and geodynamic mechanism,and deep processes and their coupling relationships with the petroliferous basins in the SCS.Under the guidance of the“Deep-Earth”science and technology innovation strategy of the Ministry of Natural Resources,deep structural and comprehensive geological research are carried out in the SCS.Geophysical investigations such as long array-large volume deep reflection seismic,gravity,magnetism and ocean bottom seismometer are carried out.The authors proposed that joint gravitymagnetic-seismic inversion should be used to obtain deep crustal information in the SCS and construct high resolution deep structural sections in different regions of the SCS.This paper systematically interpreted the formation and evolution of the SCS and explored the coupling relationship between deep structure and evolution of Mesozoic-Cenozoic basins in the SCS.It is of great significance for promoting the geosystem scientific research and resource exploration of the SCS.展开更多
The countries such as China,Vietnam,Philippines,Malaysia,Indonesia and Brunei that border South China Sea region have immense stakes in exploring and exploiting the natural resources of the region including hydrocarbo...The countries such as China,Vietnam,Philippines,Malaysia,Indonesia and Brunei that border South China Sea region have immense stakes in exploring and exploiting the natural resources of the region including hydrocarbon.More than the hydrocarbon reserves,the South China Sea is home to World’s high-networth trade route that brings the interests of non-geographic entities to this region.Further,the purported reserves of hydrocarbon in the region are in the orders of Persian Gulf but are not yet properly explored and the reserves recovered owing to territorial and non-claimant stakeholder’s influences/interventions.This paper is a synopsis of information on the hydrocarbon reserves of the South China Sea region,and evaluates the territorial and extra-territorial interests in the light of energy security and equitable development and utilization of natural resources from a geological perspective.We also suggest several measures for future consideration and implementation.展开更多
In order to develop a method that apply sampling survey data randomly obtained at fishing ports to fish stock assessments,based on fish landing surveys conducted at fishing ports in the northern South China Sea(SCS),1...In order to develop a method that apply sampling survey data randomly obtained at fishing ports to fish stock assessments,based on fish landing surveys conducted at fishing ports in the northern South China Sea(SCS),19 Threadfin porgy(Evynnis cardinalis)catch per unit effort(CPUE)datasets were collected for fishing vessels with different gear types and engine powers and incorporated into surplus production models.Considering only the fitting performance,the Schaefer model had the best overall goodness of fit,followed by the Fox,CYP,W-H,and Schnute models.Among fishing vessels with different gears and engine powers,the data were best fitted for single-trawl vessels powered by 301-400-kW engines and for gillnet vessels powered by>200-kW engines.Eight model expressions were superior and selected for subsequent analyses based on their goodness of fit and relative residuals.The Kobe plot analysis results showed an optimistic fish stock status when using the four model expressions,required more caution when using three model expressions and output pessimistic estimations using one model expression.Considering the incomplete information acquired,a compromising decision-making method was used to derive a 2017 northern SCS E.cardinalis total allowed catch(TAC)of 44,691.21 t.The different conclusions drawn from estimations using CPUEs reflect variable exploitation and utilization fish stock statuses among fishing vessels with different gears and engine powers.Hence,the fishing operations were grouped according to their CPUE relationship,and recommendations regarding optimum fishing efforts were assigned to the groups following a fundamental principle:to improve fishery TAC management,fishing efforts should be reduced if the fish stock assessment is pessimistic and maintained if the assessment is optimistic.This study providing a feasible technical method for the TAC management of China’s offshore fisheries.展开更多
The efficiency of gas hydrate production depends on the success of gas exploration and occurrence evaluation.The existing evaluation models are generally univariate and only applicable to certain geological settings.T...The efficiency of gas hydrate production depends on the success of gas exploration and occurrence evaluation.The existing evaluation models are generally univariate and only applicable to certain geological settings.This study presents a holistic approach to evaluate the likelihood of gas hydrate occurrence by supplying an index for mapping gas hydrate levels with depth.The approach integrates a generalised TOPSIS method with the fuzzy set theory.An expedition of gas hydrate conducted in the Shenhu area of the South China Sea was adopted as a case study to assess the reliability of the proposed index.As a multivariate model,the proposed approach enables the capture of non-linearity associated with gas hydrates in its entirety.The magnitude of the strength of the influential factor varies substantially from one site to another across the Shenhu area.The results also show that no site achieves the highest likelihood‘Level V’.These results are consistent with the gas saturation values obtained using Archie’s relationship.For example,at SH4 and SH7,the values of the likelihood index are the highest between 170–185 m and 150–165 m,respectively,and the observed saturation at these locations varies from 20%(SH4)to 43%(SH7).The proposed likelihood index yields a prominent ability to quantify the level of occurrence of gas hydrates with depth at different sites.It appears to be an efficient multicriteria system bound to improve the management of the gas production trial stage.展开更多
In this paper, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ (WW3) was used to simulate the wave field of the East China Sea and South China Sea from January 1988 to December 2009, with wind input of CCMP wind field....In this paper, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ (WW3) was used to simulate the wave field of the East China Sea and South China Sea from January 1988 to December 2009, with wind input of CCMP wind field. Then, the wind energy density and wave energy density were calculated by using the simulated 22-years' wave-field data and CCMP data. By synthetically considering the size of energy density, the frequency of energy level and the stability of energy density, the resources of wind energy and wave energy in the East China Sea and South China Sea were analyzed and regionalized. The result can be a guide to searching location of wind & wave power plant.展开更多
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42376222,U22A20581,and 42076069)Key Research and Development Program of Hainan Province(ZDYF2024GXJS002)China Geological Survey(DD20230402)。
文摘A detailed understanding of the distribution and potential of natural gas hydrate(NGHs)resources is crucial to fostering the industrialization of those resources in the South China Sea,where NGHs are abundant.In this study,this study analyzed the applicability of resource evaluation methods,including the volumetric,genesis,and analogy methods,and estimated NGHs resource potential in the South China Sea by using scientific resource evaluation methods based on the factors controlling the geological accumulation and the reservoir characteristics of NGHs.Furthermore,this study compared the evaluation results of NGHs resource evaluations in representative worldwise sea areas via rational analysis.The results of this study are as follows:(1)The gas hydrate accumulation in the South China Sea is characterized by multiple sources of gas supply,multi-channel migration,and extensive accumulation,which are significantly different from those of oil and gas and other unconventional resources.(2)The evaluation of gas hydrate resources in the South China Sea is a highly targeted,stratified,and multidisciplinary evaluation of geological resources under the framework of a multi-type gas hydrate resource evaluation system and focuses on the comprehensive utilization of multi-source heterogeneous data.(3)Global NGHs resources is n×10^(15)m^(3),while the NGHs resources in the South China Sea are estimated to be 10^(13)m^(3),which is comparable to the abundance of typical marine NGHs deposits in other parts of the world.In the South China Sea,the NGHs resources have a broad prospect and provide a substantial resource base for production tests and industrialization of NGHs.
基金This study was supported by the project“the deep-water fan systems and petroleum resources in the South China Sea”(grant 40238060)sponsored by the Natural Science Foundation of China and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation.
文摘The shallow shelf delta/strand arenaceous-pelitic deposit region in the north of the Pearl River mouth basin, sitting on the northern continental shelf of the South China Sea, has already become an important oil production base in China. Recent researched has revealed that a great deal of deep-water fans of great petroleum potentiality exist on the Baiyun deep-water slope below the big paleo Pearl River and its large delta. Based on a mass of exploration wells and 2-D seismic data of the shallow shelf region, a interpretation of sequence stratigraphy confirmed the existence of deep-water fans. The cyclic falling of sea level, abundant detrital matter from the paleo Pearl River and the persistent geothermal subsidence in the Baiyun sag are the three prerequisites for the formation and development of deep-water fans. There are many in common between the deep-water shelf depositional system of the northern South China Sea and the exploration hotspots region on the two banks of the Atlantic. For example, both are located on passive continent margins, and persistent secular thermal subsidence and large paleo rivers have supplied abundant material sources and organic matter. More recently, the discovery of the big gas pool on the northern slope of the Baiyun sag confirms that the Lower Tertiary lacustrine facies in the Baiyun sag has a great potentiality of source rocks. The fans overlying the Lower Tertiary source rocks should become the main exploration areas for oil and gas resources.
基金supported by a major consulting project of"South China Sea Oil and Gas Comprehensive Development Strategy Research"led by Academician Gao Deli and the Faculty of Chinese Academy of SciencesCounsulting Project of Chinese Academy of Science(Approval Number:2019-ZW11-Z-035)+1 种基金National Key Basic Research and Development Program(973)(Nos:2006CB202300,2011CB201100)China High-tech R&D Program(863)(2013AA092600)。
文摘Natural gas hydrate(NGH)has attracted much attention as a new alternative energy globally.However,evaluations of global NGH resources in the past few decades have casted a decreasing trend,where the estimate as of today is less than one ten-thousandth of the estimate forty years ago.The NGH researches in China started relatively late,but achievements have been made in the South China Sea(SCS)in the past two decades.Thirty-five studies had been carried out to evaluate NGH resource,and results showed a flat trend,ranging from 60 to 90 billion tons of oil equivalent,which was 2-3 times of the evaluation results of technical recoverable oil and gas resources in the SCS.The big difference is that the previous 35 group of NGH resource evaluations for the SCS only refers to the prospective gas resource with low grade level and high uncertainty,which cannot be used to guide exploration or researches on development strategies.Based on the analogy with the genetic mechanism of conventional oil and gas resources,this study adopts the newly proposed genetic method and geological analogy method to evaluate the NGH resource.Results show that the conventional oil and gas resources are 346.29×10^(8)t,the volume of NGH and free dynamic field are 25.19×10^(4)km^(3) and(2.05-2.48)×10^(6)km^(3),and the total amount of in-situ NGH resources in the SCS is about(4.47-6.02)×10^(12)m^(3).It is considered that the resource of hydrate should not exceed that of conventional oil and gas,so it is 30 times lower than the previous estimate.This study provides a more reliable geological basis for further NGH exploration and development.
基金financially supported by the CAS consultation project(2019-ZW11-Z-035)the National Basic Research Program of China(973)(2006CB202300,2011CB201100)China High-Tech R&D(863)Program Project(2013AA092600)。
文摘There have been at least 29 groups of estimates on the global natural gas hydrate(NGH)resource since1973,varying greatly with up to 10,000 times and showing a decreasing trend with time.For the South China Sea(SCS),35 groups of estimations were conducted on NGH resource potential since 2000,while these estimates kept almost the same with time,varying between 60 and 90 billion tons of oil equivalent(toe).What are the key factors controlling the variation trend?What are the implications of these variations for the NGH development in the world and the SCS?By analyzing the investigation characteristics of NGH resources in the world,this study divided the evaluation process into six stages and confirmed four essential factors for controlling the variations of estimates.Results indicated that the reduction trend reflects an improved understanding of the NGH formation mechanism and advancement in the resource evaluation methods,and promoted more objective evaluation results.Furthermore,the analysis process and improved evaluation method was applied to evaluate the NGH resources in the SCS,showing the similar decreasing trend of NGH resources with time.By utilizing the decreasing trend model,the predicted recoverable resources in the world and the SCS are(205-500)×10^(12)m^(3)and(0.8-6.5)×10^(12)m^(3),respectively,accounting for 20%of the total conventional oil and gas resources.Recoverable NGH resource in the SCS is only about 4%-6%of the previous estimates of 60-90 billion toe.If extracted completely,it only can support the sustainable development of China for 7 years at the current annual consumption level of oil and gas.NGH cannot be the main energy resource in future due to its low resource potential and lack of advantages in recovery.
基金financially supported by the CAS consultation project“South China Sea Oil and Gas Comprehensive Development Strategy”(2019-ZW11-Z-035)the National Basic Research Program of China(2006CB202300,2011CB201100)the National HighTech R&D(863)Program of China(2013AA092600)。
文摘As an efficient clean energy,natural gas hydrate(NGH)has become a hot topic in recent researches.Since1990 s,China has made great achievements and progress in NGH exploration in the South China Sea(SCS),including determination of the favorable distribution areas and favorable strata thickness,identification of the dual source for accumulation,evaluation of the prospective gas contents,verification of the widespread existence,and confirmation of the technical recoverability of NGH resources.However,there are three major challenges in the NGH studies.First,all the 24 national key and major projects in the SCS focused on trial production engineering and geological engineering in the past 20 years,while 8 of the 10 international NGH research projects focused on resource potential.Second,resource evaluation methods are outdated and some parameter selection are subjective.Third,the existing resource evaluation results are low-level with a great uncertainty,and cannot be used to guide NGH exploration and production or strategic research.To improve the evaluation of NGH resources in the SCS,future researches should focus on four aspects:(1)improve the research on the criterion of the objective existence of NGH and the method of prediction and evaluation;(2)apply new theories and methods from the global NGH research;(3)boost the research on the difference and correlation of the conditions of hydrocarbon migration and accumulation in different basins;(4)innovate the theory and method of NGH resource potential evaluation.
基金financially supported by the CAS consultation project“South China Sea Oil and Gas Comprehensive Development Strategy”(2019-ZW11-Z-035)the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(2006CB202300,2011CB201100)the National High-Tech R&D Program of China(863 Program)(2013AA092600)。
文摘Natural gas hydrate(NGH),considered as a type of premium energy alternative to conventional hydrocarbons,has been broadly studied.The estimate of the total NGH resources in the world has decreased by more than 90%since the first evaluation in 1973.Geographic and geophysical conditions of the South China Sea(SCS)are favorable for the formation of NGH,which has been proved by drilling results up to date.The recoverability of the NGH in the SCS has been confirmed by the production tests using both vertical and horizontal wells.Since 2001,35 estimates of NGH resources in the SCS have been made,with relatively stable results varying between 600 and 900×109 ton oil equivalent.In these estimations,the volumetric method was commonly adopted,but the geological conditions,the migration-accumulation mechanisms of NGH,and the practical recoverability were not considered.These estimates cannot be regarded as evaluated resources according to the international resource evaluation standards,but are at most about prospective gas content of NGH,thus inefficient for guiding explorations and developments.To solve these problems,this study divides the past NGH surveys in the SCS into seven stages,acquires key geological parameters of every stage based on previous studies and analogy with other areas,evaluates the NGH resources of these seven stages by using the volumetric method,then adopts a new trend-analysis method to simulate the downward trend of these estimates,and finally predicts the NGH resources in the SCS at 2025 and 2030.The downward trend is because of the continuous improvement of NGH understanding over time,which is consistent with the trend of global NGH estimates.At the present stage(from 2019 to 2021),the average technically recoverable resource(ATRR)is 7.0×10^(12)m^(3),and the estimates of 2025 and 2030 ATRR are 6.46×10^(12)m^(3) and 4.01×10^(12)m^(3)respectively,with a difference of less than 40%.Therefore,it can be inferred that the ATRR of NGH in the SCS is between 4.0 and 6.5×10^(12)m^(3),with an average of 5.25×10^(12)m^(3).
基金funded by the major consulting project of“South China Sea Oil and Gas Comprehensive Development Strategy Research”led by Academician Gao Deli and the Faculty of Chinese Academy of SciencesConsulting Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences(2019-ZW11-Z-035)+1 种基金National Key Basic Research and Development Program(973)(2006CB202300,2011CB201100)China High-Tech R&D Project(863)(2013AA092600)。
文摘China Geological Survey conducted the second trial production of natural gas hydrate(NGH)in the Shenhu Area in South China Sea(SCS)from 2019 to 2020.Compared with the first trial production in 2017,the second trial showed significantly increased daily gas production and total gas production,and removed some technical obstacles for large-scale NGH resource developments in the SCS.However,current NGH resource evaluation in the SCS is still at the stage of prospective gas content assessment,which is unable to guide further NGH exploration and development.This study utilized the hydrate phase balance to delineate the NGH distribution range and effective thickness and volumetric method to evaluate NGH resource.Based on the latest exploration and production data from the Shenhu Area,Monte Carlo simulation was performed to calculate the NGH resource amount with different probabilities.By assuming a 50%cumulative probability,the in-situ NGH resources in the SCS was estimated to be11.7×10^(12)m^(3) and the recoverable NGH resources was 2.8×10^(12)m^(3).These results will provide a more reliable resource basis for China to formulate comprehensive development strategies for oil and gas exploration in the SCS.
基金Supported by the National Key Technology R&D Program(No.2013BAD13B06)the Guangdong Provincial Program of Science and Technology(No.2014A020217011)+1 种基金funded by the State Oceanic Administration(No.GASI-02-SCS-YSW)supported by a Special Fund for Youth Training from the South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute
文摘Based on the biological data of purpleback flying squid(Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis)collected by light falling-net in the southern South China Sea(SCS) during September to October 2012 and March to April 2013,growth and mortality of 'Medium' and 'Dwarf' forms of squid are derived using the Powell-Wetherall,ELEFAN methods and length-converted catch curves(FiSAT package).Given a lack of commercial exploitation,we assume total mortality to be due entirely to natural mortality.We estimate these squid have fast growth,with growth coefficients(k) ranging from 1.42 to 2.39,and high natural mortality(M),with estimates ranging from 1.61 to 2.92.To sustainably exploit these squid stocks,yield per recruitment based on growth and natural mortality was determined using the Beverton-Holt dynamic pool model.We demonstrate squid stocks could sustain high fishing mortality and low ages at first capture,with an optimal fishing mortality >3.0,with the optimal age at first capture increased to 0.4-0.6 years when fishing mortality approached optimal levels.On the basis of our analyses and estimates of stock biomass,we believe considerable potential exists to expand the squid fishery into the open SCS,relieving fishing pressure on coastal waters.
基金granted by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42076066,92055203 and 41874076)the National Science and Technology Major Project(Grant No.2016ZX05026–004)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2018YFE0202400)。
文摘The process of Cenozoic sea-land changes in the northern South China Sea(SCS)controlled the sedimentary filling pattern and played an important role in the petroleum geological characteristics of the northern marginal sedimentary basins.Under the control of the opening process of the SCS,the northern SCS Cenozoic transgression generally showed the characteristics of early in the east and late in the west,and early in the south and late in the north.The initial transgression occurred in the Eocene in the Taixinan Basin(TXNB)of the eastern SCS,while the transgression occurred until the Pliocene in the Yinggehai Basin(YGHB)of the western SCS.International Ocean Discovery Program(IODP)expeditions(Expeditions 367/368)revealed that the initial transgression of the SCS basin occurred at approximately 34 Ma,which was the initial opening time of the SCS.The period of drastic changes in the sedimentary environment caused by large-scale transgression corresponded to the opening time of the southwestern subbasin(approximately 23 Ma),which also represented the peak of the spreading of the SCS.The sea-land transition process controls the distribution of alternating continent-marine facies,marine facies source rocks and reservoirs in the basins.The marine facies source rocks of the basins in the northern SCS have a trend of gradually becoming younger from east to west,which is consistent with the regional process of gradual transgression from east to west.Regional sea-level changes were comprehensively influenced by SCS opening and global sea-level changes.These processes led to the early development in the east and south and late development in the west and north for the carbonate platform in the SCS.Carbonate platforms form another type of"selfgenerating and self-accumulating"oil-gas reservoir in the northern SCS.The sea-land transition controlled the depositional filling patterns of different basins and laid the foundation of marine deposits for oil and gas resources.The source-reservoircap assemblage in the northern SCS was controlled horizontally by provenance supply and sedimentary environmental changes caused by sea-land transition and vertically by the tectonic evolution of the SCS and regional sea-level changes.
基金Supported by National Special Project (No.118-03)COMRA (No. DYXM115-03-3-05)
文摘Gas hydrate research has significant importance for securing world energy resources, and has the potential to produce considerable economic benefits. Previous studies have shown that the South China Sea is an area that harbors gas hydrates. However, there is a lack of systematic investigations and understanding on the distribution of gas hydrate throughout the region. In this paper, we applied mineral resource quantitative assessment techniques to forecast and estimate the potential distribution of gas hydrate resources in the northern South China Sea. However, current hydrate samples from the South China Sea are too few to produce models of occurrences. Thus, according to similarity and contrast principles of mineral outputs, we can use a similar hydrate-mining environment with sufficient gas hydrate data as a testing ground for modeling northern South China Sea gas hydrate conditions. We selected the Gulf of Mexico, which has extensively studied gas hydrates, to develop predictive models of gas hydrate distributions, and to test errors in the model. Then, we compared the existing northern South China Sea hydrate-mining data with the Gulf of Mexico characteristics, and collated the relevant data into the model. Subsequently, we applied the model to the northern South China Sea to obtain the potential gas hydrate distribution of the area, and to identify significant exploration targets. Finally, we evaluated the reliability of the predicted results. The south seabed area of Taiwan Bank is recommended as a priority exploration target. The Zhujiang Mouth, Southeast Hainan, and Southwest Taiwan Basins, including the South Bijia Basin, also are recommended as exploration target areas. In addition, the method in this paper can provide a useful predictive approach for gas hydrate resource assessment, which gives a scientific basis for construction and implementation of long-term planning for gas hydrate exploration and general exploitation of the seabed of China.
基金This study was financially supported by the Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Guangzhou)(GML2019ZD0207,GML2019ZD0208)the China Geological Survey Program(DD20191007).
文摘The South China Sea(SCS)is the hotspot of geological scientific research and nature resource exploration and development due to the potential for enormous hydrocarbon resource development and a complex formation and evolution process.The SCS has experienced complex geological processes including continental lithospheric breakup,seafloor spreading and oceanic crust subduction,which leads debates for decades.However,there are still no clear answers regarding to the following aspects:the crustal and Moho structure,the structure of the continent-ocean transition zone,the formation and evolution process and geodynamic mechanism,and deep processes and their coupling relationships with the petroliferous basins in the SCS.Under the guidance of the“Deep-Earth”science and technology innovation strategy of the Ministry of Natural Resources,deep structural and comprehensive geological research are carried out in the SCS.Geophysical investigations such as long array-large volume deep reflection seismic,gravity,magnetism and ocean bottom seismometer are carried out.The authors proposed that joint gravitymagnetic-seismic inversion should be used to obtain deep crustal information in the SCS and construct high resolution deep structural sections in different regions of the SCS.This paper systematically interpreted the formation and evolution of the SCS and explored the coupling relationship between deep structure and evolution of Mesozoic-Cenozoic basins in the SCS.It is of great significance for promoting the geosystem scientific research and resource exploration of the SCS.
文摘The countries such as China,Vietnam,Philippines,Malaysia,Indonesia and Brunei that border South China Sea region have immense stakes in exploring and exploiting the natural resources of the region including hydrocarbon.More than the hydrocarbon reserves,the South China Sea is home to World’s high-networth trade route that brings the interests of non-geographic entities to this region.Further,the purported reserves of hydrocarbon in the region are in the orders of Persian Gulf but are not yet properly explored and the reserves recovered owing to territorial and non-claimant stakeholder’s influences/interventions.This paper is a synopsis of information on the hydrocarbon reserves of the South China Sea region,and evaluates the territorial and extra-territorial interests in the light of energy security and equitable development and utilization of natural resources from a geological perspective.We also suggest several measures for future consideration and implementation.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFD0900906)the Guangdong Natural Science Foundation(2016A030313752)+1 种基金the Fund of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhanjiang)(ZJW-2019-08)the Scientific Research Foundation for Talent Introduction,Guangdong Ocean University(1212037).
文摘In order to develop a method that apply sampling survey data randomly obtained at fishing ports to fish stock assessments,based on fish landing surveys conducted at fishing ports in the northern South China Sea(SCS),19 Threadfin porgy(Evynnis cardinalis)catch per unit effort(CPUE)datasets were collected for fishing vessels with different gear types and engine powers and incorporated into surplus production models.Considering only the fitting performance,the Schaefer model had the best overall goodness of fit,followed by the Fox,CYP,W-H,and Schnute models.Among fishing vessels with different gears and engine powers,the data were best fitted for single-trawl vessels powered by 301-400-kW engines and for gillnet vessels powered by>200-kW engines.Eight model expressions were superior and selected for subsequent analyses based on their goodness of fit and relative residuals.The Kobe plot analysis results showed an optimistic fish stock status when using the four model expressions,required more caution when using three model expressions and output pessimistic estimations using one model expression.Considering the incomplete information acquired,a compromising decision-making method was used to derive a 2017 northern SCS E.cardinalis total allowed catch(TAC)of 44,691.21 t.The different conclusions drawn from estimations using CPUEs reflect variable exploitation and utilization fish stock statuses among fishing vessels with different gears and engine powers.Hence,the fishing operations were grouped according to their CPUE relationship,and recommendations regarding optimum fishing efforts were assigned to the groups following a fundamental principle:to improve fishery TAC management,fishing efforts should be reduced if the fish stock assessment is pessimistic and maintained if the assessment is optimistic.This study providing a feasible technical method for the TAC management of China’s offshore fisheries.
基金funded by“The Pearl River Talent Recruitment Program”in 2019(Grant No.2019CX01G338)Guangdong Province and the Scientific Research Initiation Grant of Shantou University for New Faculty Member(Grant No.NTF19024-2019).
文摘The efficiency of gas hydrate production depends on the success of gas exploration and occurrence evaluation.The existing evaluation models are generally univariate and only applicable to certain geological settings.This study presents a holistic approach to evaluate the likelihood of gas hydrate occurrence by supplying an index for mapping gas hydrate levels with depth.The approach integrates a generalised TOPSIS method with the fuzzy set theory.An expedition of gas hydrate conducted in the Shenhu area of the South China Sea was adopted as a case study to assess the reliability of the proposed index.As a multivariate model,the proposed approach enables the capture of non-linearity associated with gas hydrates in its entirety.The magnitude of the strength of the influential factor varies substantially from one site to another across the Shenhu area.The results also show that no site achieves the highest likelihood‘Level V’.These results are consistent with the gas saturation values obtained using Archie’s relationship.For example,at SH4 and SH7,the values of the likelihood index are the highest between 170–185 m and 150–165 m,respectively,and the observed saturation at these locations varies from 20%(SH4)to 43%(SH7).The proposed likelihood index yields a prominent ability to quantify the level of occurrence of gas hydrates with depth at different sites.It appears to be an efficient multicriteria system bound to improve the management of the gas production trial stage.
基金supported by the National key basic research development program of China (Grant No. 2010CB950400)
文摘In this paper, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH-Ⅲ (WW3) was used to simulate the wave field of the East China Sea and South China Sea from January 1988 to December 2009, with wind input of CCMP wind field. Then, the wind energy density and wave energy density were calculated by using the simulated 22-years' wave-field data and CCMP data. By synthetically considering the size of energy density, the frequency of energy level and the stability of energy density, the resources of wind energy and wave energy in the East China Sea and South China Sea were analyzed and regionalized. The result can be a guide to searching location of wind & wave power plant.