A deep multimodal fusion and multitasking trajectory prediction model for typhoon trajectory prediction to reduce flight scheduling cancellation

Natural events have had a significant impact on overall flight activity,and the aviation industry plays a vital role in helping society cope with the impact of these events.As one of the most impactful weather typhoon seasons appears and continues,airlines operating in threatened areas and passengers having travel plans during this time period will pay close attention to the development of tropical storms.This paper proposes a deep multimodal fusion and multitasking trajectory prediction model that can improve the reliability of typhoon trajectory prediction and reduce the quantity of flight scheduling cancellation.The deep multimodal fusion module is formed by deep fusion of the feature output by multiple submodal fusion modules,and the multitask generation module uses longitude and latitude as two related tasks for simultaneous prediction.With more dependable data accuracy,problems can be analysed rapidly and more efficiently,enabling better decision-making with a proactive versus reactive posture.When multiple modalities coexist,features can be extracted from them simultaneously to supplement each other’s information.An actual case study,the typhoon Lichma that swept China in 2019,has demonstrated that the algorithm can effectively reduce the number of unnecessary flight cancellations compared to existing flight scheduling and assist the new generation of flight scheduling systems under extreme weather.

Optimization Method for Departure Flight Scheduling Problem Based on Genetic Algorithm

Except for the bad weather or other uncontrollable reasons,a reasonable queue of departure and arrival flights is one of the important methods to reduce the delay on busy airports.Here focusing on the Pareto optimization of departure flights,the take-off sequencing is taken as a single machine scheduling problem with two objective functions,i.e.,the minimum of total weighted delayed number of departure flights and the latest delay time of delayed flight.And the integer programming model is established and solved by multi-objective genetic algorithm.The simulation results show that the method can obtain the better goal,and provide a variety of options for controllers considering the scene situation,thus improving the flexibility and effectivity of flight plan.

Bilevel Programming Model for Joint Scheduling of Arrival and Departure Flights Based on Traffic Scenario

In order to meet the needs of collaborative decision making,considering the different demands of air traffic control units,airlines,airports and passengers in various traffic scenarios,the joint scheduling problem of arrival and departure flights is studied systematically.According to the matching degree of capacity and flow,it is determined that the traffic state of arrival/departure operation in a certain period is peak or off-peak.The demands of all parties in each traffic state are analyzed,and the mathematical models of arrival/departure flight scheduling in each traffic state are established.Aiming at the four kinds of joint operation traffic scenarios of arrival and departure,the corresponding bi-level programming models for joint scheduling of arrival and departure flights are established,respectively,and the elitism genetic algorithm is designed to solve the models.The results show that:Compared with the first-come-firstserved method,in the scenarios of arrival peak&departure off-peak and arrival peak&departure peak,the departure flight equilibrium satisfaction is improved,and the runway occupation time of departure flight flow is reduced by 38.8%.In the scenarios of arrival off-peak&departure off-peak and departure peak&arrival off-peak,the arrival flight equilibrium delay time is significantly reduced,the departure flight equilibrium satisfaction is improved by 77.6%,and the runway occupation time of departure flight flow is reduced by 46.6%.Compared with other four kinds of strategies,the optimal scheduling method can better balance fairness and efficiency,so the scheduling results are more reasonable.

Collaboration Optimization of Flight Schedule in Beijing⁃Tianjin⁃Hebei Airport Group

The coordinated and integrated development of regional airport group system has been identified as an important research topic in the field of air traffic management in China.However,due to the clear limitation on airspace resources and severe traffic congestion,it is necessary to further study the problem of flight schedule coordination optimization for airport clusters.We take the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei airport Group as an example and construct an optimization model of flight schedule with the minimum adjustment and delay.The design of the implementation algorithm is proposed.As demonstrated by the simulation results,the flight delay in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei multi-airport system is noticeably reduced by applying both the optimization model and the algorithm proposed in this paper.

Weekly Fleet Assignment Model and Algorithm

A 0-1 integer programming model for weekly fleet assignment was put forward based on linear network and weekly flight scheduling in China. In this model, the objective function is to maximize the total profit of fleet assignment, subject to the constraints of coverage, aircraft flow balance, fleet size, aircraft availability, aircraft usage, flight restriction, aircraft seat capacity, and stopover. Then the branch-and-bound algorithm based on special ordered set was applied to solve the model. At last, a real- wofld case study on an airline with 5 fleets, 48 aircrafts and 1 786 flight legs indicated that the profit increase was ￥ 1 591276 one week and the running time was no more than 4 rain, which shows that the model and algorithm are fairly good for domestic airline.

Sudden Decline of Flying-Boat Commercial Airlines in 1950s： Its Cause and Implications for Revival

1930s was the golden age for the flying-boat airlines in the world, notably the Pan Am Clipper transpacific and transatlantic routes, and the （British） Imperial Airways UK-Africa and UK-Australia/Far East routes. The major advantage of the flying boats was its endless runway （i.e., ocean or lake） and resultant possibilities for larger aircrafts than land-based airliners. Airlines such as Pan Am made large investments in the 1930s for flying boats, their special terminals by the water, and the worldwide flying-boat air route network. However, in the late 1940s to early 1950s, the flying boats suddenly disappeared due to the rapid development of land-based large airliners and long runways, according to the previous studies. The author conducted historical research on this topic, and found another reason： rapid decline in the high-income population who used to travel by flying boat scheduled flights. Also found was a recent surge of the luxury market, and steady increase in the cruise-ship passengers. Hence, there could be implications for revival of the flying boat flights as luxury cruise, rather than as scheduled flights.