基于MIKE FLOOD模型的平原水网地区内涝治理效果模拟研究

为科学评估平原水网地区内涝治理效果,以昆山市淀山湖镇为研究对象,基于MIKE FLOOD模型,耦合一维河网、二维地形和一维管网模拟了平原水网地区城镇内涝情况。采用实测降雨数据对模型进行了率定和验证,并模拟了2年一遇、5年一遇、10年一遇和20年一遇4种重现期降雨条件下现状和治理后的最大淹没水深。模拟结果表明:20年一遇降雨条件下内涝范围变化明显,其余3种重现期降雨条件下内涝范围变化不明显;对于降雨重现期较小条件下的城市内涝治理,应优先考虑管网改造,而针对短历时的强暴雨事件,应优先考虑海绵城市设施建设改造;为了应对不同重现期、短历时降雨造成的城市内涝风险,应在管网改造的基础上配合海绵城市设施建设改造。

基于FloodArea模型的呼和浩特市城区大青山南麓山洪致灾临界面雨量研究

以呼和浩特市城区北部大青山南麓山洪沟流域为研究区域,利用流域内气象观测站逐小时降水数据、数字高程模型数据、土地利用数据等资料,针对1998年7月12日和2020年8月1日暴雨时段,采用FloodArea淹没模型进行洪水动态淹没模拟。结果表明:1998年7月12日暴雨过程的FloodArea水动力模型模拟结果与实际情况较为吻合,且9条山洪沟的洪水淹没深度与累计9 h滑动面雨量的相关程度最高,构建了面雨量与淹没深度的回归关系方程,基于隐患点3个风险等级,确定了不同等级下的临界面雨量,以红山口沟为例,分别为69.9 mm(1级)、39.3 mm(2级)、17.2 mm(3级)。2020年8月1日暴雨过程的模型模拟结果基本与山洪过程一致。

Flood Modeller在河流洪水风险管理中的应用

本文构建了某河流的洪水建模器(Flood Modeller)一维、二模模型,通过与实际洪水数据对比,校准模型的曼宁系数n值以提高模拟准确性。使用50年、100年和200年一遇的洪水重现期模拟洪水事件,评估潜在淹没区域,为洪水风险评估提供科学的可视化工具。

Spatial diversion and coordination of flood water for an urban flood control project in Suzhou, China

Suzhou City,located in the Yangtze River Delta in China,is prone to flooding due to a complex combination of natural factors,including its monsoon climate,low elevation,and tidally influenced position,as well as intensive human activities.The Large Encirclement Flood Control Project(LEFCP)was launched to cope with serious floods in the urban area.This project changed the spatiotemporal pattern of flood processes and caused spatial diversion of floods from the urban area to the outskirts of the city.Therefore,this study developed a distributed flood simulation model in order to understand this transition of flood processes.The results revealed that the LEFCP effectively protected the urban areas from floods,but the present scheduling schemes resulted in the spatial diversion of floods to the outskirts of the city.With rainstorm frequencies of 10.0%to 0.5%,the water level differences between two representative water level stations(Miduqiao(MDQ)and Fengqiao(FQ))located inside and outside the LEFCP area,ranged from 0.75 m to 0.24 m and from 1.80 m to 1.58 m,respectively.In addition,the flood safety margin at MDQ and the duration with the water level exceeding the warning water level at FQ ranged from 0.95 m to 0.43 m and from 4 h to 22 h,respectively.Rational scheduling schemes for the hydraulic facilities of the LEFCP in extreme precipitation cases were developed ac-cording to food simulations under seven scheduling scenarios.This helps to regulate the spatial flood diversion caused by the LEFCP during extreme precipitation.

Flood Forecasting and Warning System: A Survey of Models and Their Applications in West Africa

Flood events occurrences and frequencies in the world are of immense worry for the stability of the economy and life safety. Africa continent is the third continent the most negatively affected by the flood events after Asia and Europe. Eastern Africa is the most hit in Africa. However, Africa continent is at the early stage in term of flood forecasting models development and implementation. Very few hydrological models for flood forecasting are available and implemented in Africa for the flood mitigation. And for the majority of the cases, they need to be improved because of the time evolution. Flash flood in Bamako (Mali) has been putting both human life and the economy in jeopardy. Studying this phenomenon, as to propose applicable solutions for its alleviation in Bamako is a great concern. Therefore, it is of upmost importance to know the existing scientific works related to this situation in Mali and elsewhere. The main aim was to point out the various solutions implemented by various local and international institutions, in order to fight against the flood events. Two types of methods are used for the flood events adaptation: the structural and non-structural methods. The structural methods are essentially based on the implementation of the structures like the dams, dykes, levees, etc. The problem of these methods is that they may reduce the volume of water that will inundate the area but are not efficient for the prediction of the coming floods and cannot alert the population with any lead time in advance. The non-structural methods are the one allowing to perform the prediction with acceptable lead time. They used the hydrological rainfall-runoff models and are the widely methods used for the flood adaptation. This review is more accentuated on the various types non-structural methods and their application in African countries in general and West African countries in particular with their strengths and weaknesses. Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV), Hydrologic Engineer Center Hydrologic Model System (HEC-HMS) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) are the hydrological models that are the most widely used in West Africa for the purpose of flood forecasting. The easily way of calibration and the weak number of input data make these models appropriate for the West Africa region where the data are scarce and often with bad quality. These models when implemented and applied, can predict the coming floods, allow the population to adapt and mitigate the flood events and reduce considerably the impacts of floods especially in terms of loss of life.

Establishment of Unstable Flow Model and Well Testing Analysis for Viscoelastic Polymer Flooding

At present, the polymer solution is usually assumed to be Newtonian fluid or pseudoplastic fluid, and its elasticity is not considered on the study of polymer flooding well testing model. A large number of experiments have shown that polymer solutions have viscoelasticity, and disregarding the elasticity will cause certain errors in the analysis of polymer solution seepage law. Based on the percolation theory, this paper describes the polymer flooding mechanism from the two aspects of viscous effect and elastic effect, the mathematical model of oil water two-phase three components unsteady flow in viscoelastic polymer flooding was established, and solved by finite difference method, and the well-test curve was drawn to analyze the rule of well test curve in polymer flooding. The results show that, the degree of upward warping in the radial flow section of the pressure recovery curve when considering polymer elasticity is greater than the curve which not considering polymer elasticity. The relaxation time, power-law index, polymer injection concentration mainly affect the radial flow stage of the well testing curve. The relaxation time, power-law index, polymer injection concentration and other polymer flooding parameters mainly affect the radial flow stage of the well testing curve. The larger the polymer flooding parameters, the greater the degree of upwarping of the radial flow derivative curve. This model has important reference significance for well-testing research in polymer flooding oilfields.

基于MIKE FLOOD耦合模型的深圳黄沙河片区内涝风险评估和改造分析

为解决城市内涝问题,以深圳市黄沙河片区排水分区为例,基于MIKE FLOOD平台,耦合城市雨水管网、水系及地形地物,建立城市内涝模型,模拟分析研究区2年一遇、10年一遇、50年一遇等不同重现期的排涝情景。结果表明:耦合模型能直观反映受涝区积水深度与积水时间,并随着重现期的增大,溢流点和充满的管道会增多;建立MIKE FLOOD耦合模型,发现黄沙河片区高风险区域面积1.6 km^(2),主要集中在坑塘立交桥、龙岗大道;中风险区域面积3.2 km^(2),主要集中在同富裕工业区、新联北路;低风险区域面积2.8 km^(2),主要集中在坑塘立交桥、坪梓路,并分析易涝点的成因,提出改造建议。

Performance assessment of two-dimensional hydraulic models for generation of flood inundation maps in mountain river basins

Hydraulic models for the generation of flood inundation maps are not commonly applied in mountain river basins because of the difficulty in modeling the hydraulic behavior and the complex topography. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the performance of four twodimensional hydraulic models (HEC-RAS 2D, Iber 2D, Flood Modeller 2D, and PCSWMM 2D) with respect to the generation of flood inundation maps. The study area covers a 5-km reach of the Santa B-arbara River located in the Ecuadorian Andes, at 2330 masl, in Gualaceo. The model's performance was evaluated based on the water surface elevation and flood extent, in terms of the mean absolute difference and measure of fit. The analysis revealed that, for a given case, Iber 2D has the best performance in simulating the water level and inundation for flood events with 20- and 50-year return periods, respectively, followed by Flood Modeller 2D, HEC-RAS 2D, and PCSWMM 2D in terms of their performance. Grid resolution, the way in which hydraulic structures are mimicked, the model code, and the default value of the parameters are considered the main sources of prediction uncertainty.

Analysis of dynamic wave model for flood routing in natural rivers

Flooding is a common natural disaster that causes enormous economic, social, and human losses. Of various flood routing methods, the dynamic wave model is one of the best approaches for the prediction of the characteristics of floods during their propagations in natural rivers because all of the terms of the momentum equation are considered in the model. However, no significant research has been conducted on how the model sensitivity affects the accuracy of the downstream hydrograph. In this study, a comprehensive analysis of the input parameters 9f the dynamic wave model was performed through field applications in natural rivers and routing experiments in artificial channels using the graphical multi-parametric sensitivity analysis （GMPSA）. The results indicate that the effects of input parameter errors on the output results are more significant in special situations, such as lower values of Manning＇s roughness coefficient and/or a steeper bed slope on the characteristics of a design hydrograph, larger values of the skewness factor and/or time to peak on the channel characteristics, larger values of Manning＇s roughness coefficient and/or the bed slope on the space step, and lower values of Manning＇s roughness coefficient and/or a steeper bed slope on the time step and weighting factor.

Modeling CO_2 miscible flooding for enhanced oil recovery

The injection of fuel-generated CO2 into oil reservoirs will lead to two benefits in both enhanced oil recovery （EOR） and the reduction in atmospheric emission of CO2. To get an insight into CO2 miscible flooding performance in oil reservoirs, a multi-compositional non-isothermal CO2 miscible flooding mathematical model is developed. The convection and diffusion of CO2-hydrocarbon mixtures in multiphase fluids in reservoirs, mass transfer between CO2 and crude, and formation damages caused by asphaltene precipitation are fully considered in the model. The governing equations are discretized in space using the integral finite difference method. The Newton-Raphson iterative technique was used to solve the nonlinear equation systems of mass and energy conservation. A numerical simulator, in which regular grids and irregular grids are optional, was developed for predicting CO2 miscible flooding processes. Two examples of one-dimensional （1D） regular and three-dimensional （3D） rectangle and polygonal grids are designed to demonstrate the functions of the simulator. Experimental data validate the developed simulator by comparison with 1D simulation results. The applications of the simulator indicate that it is feasible for predicting CO2 flooding in oil reservoirs for EOR.

Field based index of flood vulnerability (IFV): A new validation technique for flood susceptible models

The flood hazard management is one of the major challenges in the floodplain regions worldwide.With the rise in population growth and the spread of infrastructural development,the level of risk has increased over time.Therefore,the prediction of flood susceptible area is a key challenge for the adoption of management plans.Flood susceptibility modeling is technically a common work,but it is still a very tough job to validate flood susceptible models in a very rigorous and scientific manner.Therefore,the present work in the Atreyee River Basin of India and Bangladesh was planned to establish artificial neural network(ANN),radial basis function(RBF),random forest(RF)and their ensemble-based flood susceptibility models.The flood susceptible models were constructed based on nine flood conditioning parameters.The flood susceptibility models were validated in a conventional way using the receiver operating curve(ROC).To validate the flood-susceptible models,a two dimensional(2D)hydraulic flood simulation model was developed.Also,the index of flood vulnerability model was developed and applied for validating the flood susceptible models,which was a very unique way to validate the predictive models.Friedman test and Wilcoxon Signed rank test were employed to compare the generated flood susceptible models.Results showed that 11.95%-12.99%of the entire basin area(10188.4 km^(2))comes under very high flood-susceptible zones.Accuracy evaluation results have shown that the performance of ensemble flood susceptible models outperforms other standalone machine learning models.The flood simulation model and IFV model were also spatially adjusted with the flood susceptibility models.Therefore,the present study recommended for the ensemble flood susceptibility prediction and IFV based validation along with conventional ways.

Mathematical model for flood routing based on cellular automaton

Increasing frequency and severity of flooding have caused tremendous damage in China, requiring more essential countermeasures to alleviate the damage. In this study, the dynamic simulation property of a cellular automaton was used to make further progress in flood routing. In consideration of terrain＇s influence on flood routing, we regarded the terrain elevation as an auxiliary attribute of a two-dimensional cellular automaton in path selection for flood routing and developed a mathematical model based on a cellular automaton. A numerical case of propagation of an outburst flood in an area of the lower Yangtze River was analyzed with both the fixed-step and variable-step models. The results show that the flood does not spread simultaneously in all directions, but flows into the lower place first, and that the submerged area grows quickly at the beginning, but slowly later on. The final submerged areas obtained from the two different models are consistent, and the flood volume balance test shows that the flood volume meets the requirement of the total volume balance. The analysis of the case shows that the proposed model can be a valuable tool for flood routing.

Modelling Chorabari Lake outburst flood, Kedarnath, India

In this study, the Glacier Lake Outburst Flood(GLOF) that occurred over Kedarnath in June 2013 was modeled using integrated observations from the field and Remote Sensing(RS). The lake breach parameters such as area, depth, breach, and height have been estimated from the field observations and Remote Sensing(RS) data. A number of modelling approaches, including Snow Melt Runoff Model(SRM), Modified Single Flow model(MSF), Watershed Management System(WMS), Simplified Dam Breach Model(SMPDBK) and BREACH were used to model the GLOF. Estimations from SRM produced a runoff of about 22.7 m3 during 16–17, June 2013 over Chorabari Lake. Bathymetry data reported that the lake got filled to its maximum capacity(3822.7 m3) due to excess discharge. Hydrograph obtained from the BREACH model revealed a peak discharge of about 1699 m3/s during an intense water flow episode that lasted for 10–15 minutes on 17 th June 2013. Excess discharge from heavy rainfall and snowmelt into the lake increased its hydrostatic pressure and the lake breached cataclysmically.

Application and comparison of coaxial correlation diagram and hydrological model for reconstructing flood series under human disturbance

Intense human activities have greatly changed the flood generation conditions in most areas of the world, and have destroyed the consistency in the annual flood peak and volume series. For design flood estimation, coaxial correlation diagram and conceptual hydrological model are two frequently used tools to adjust and reconstruct the flood series under human disturbance. This study took a typical mountain catchment of the Haihe River Basin as an example to investigate the effects of human activities on flood regime and to compare and assess the two adjustment methods. The main purpose is to construct a conceptual hydrological model which can incorporate the effects of human activities. The results show that the coaxial correlation diagram is simple and widely-used, but can only adjust the time series of total flood volumes. Therefore, it is only applicable under certain conditions(e.g. There is a strong link between the flood peaks and volumes and the link is not significantly affected by human activities). The conceptual model is a powerful tool to adjust the time series of both flood peak flows and flood volumes over different durations provided that it is closely related to the catchment hydrological characteristics, specifically accounting for the effects of human activities, and incorporating expert knowledge when estimating or calibrating parameters. It is suggested that the two methods should be used together to cross check each other.

Use of genetic algorithm in new approach to modeling of flood routing

The hydrological models and simpli?ed methods of Saint-venant equations are used extensively in hydrological modeling, in particular for the simulation of the ?ood routing. These models require speci?c and extensive data that usually makes the study of ?ood propagation an arduous practice. We present in this work a new model, based on a transfer function, this function is a function of parametric probability density, having a physical meaning with respect to the propagation of a hydrological signal. The inversion of the model is carried out by an optimization technique called Genetic Algorithm. It consists of evolving a population of parameters based primarily on genetic recombination operators and natural selection to?nd the minimum of an objective function that measures the distance between observed and simulated data. The precision of the simulations of the proposed model is compared with the response of the Hayami model and the applicability of the model is tested on a real case, the N'Fis basin river, located in the High Atlas Occidental, which presents elements that appear favorable to the study of the propagation. The results obtained are very satisfactory and the simulation of the proposed model is very close to the response of the Hayami model.

Local and regional flood frequency analysis based on hierarchical Bayesian model in Dongting Lake Basin,China

This study developed a hierarchical Bayesian(HB)model for local and regional flood frequency analysis in the Dongting Lake Basin,in China.The annual maximum daily flows from 15 streamflow-gauged sites in the study area were analyzed with the HB model.The generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution was selected as the extreme flood distribution,and the GEV distribution location and scale parameters were spatially modeled through a regression approach with the drainage area as a covariate.The Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method with Gibbs sampling was employed to calculate the posterior distribution in the HB model.The results showed that the proposed HB model provided satisfactory Bayesian credible intervals for flood quantiles,while the traditional delta method could not provide reliable uncertainty estimations for large flood quantiles,due to the fact that the lower confidence bounds tended to decrease as the return periods increased.Furthermore,the HB model for regional analysis allowed for a reduction in the value of some restrictive assumptions in the traditional index flood method,such as the homogeneity region assumption and the scale invariance assumption.The HB model can also provide an uncertainty band of flood quantile prediction at a poorly gauged or ungauged site,but the index flood method with L-moments does not demonstrate this uncertainty directly.Therefore,the HB model is an effective method of implementing the flexible local and regional frequency analysis scheme,and of quantifying the associated predictive uncertainty.

Modeling Reforestation’s Role in Climate-Proofing Watersheds from Flooding and Soil Erosion

The mitigation potential of reforestation for offsetting the deleterious effects of increased flooding and soil erosion projected to occur in Atlantic Canada through future climate change was investigated. Modelling determined a strong but non-linear relationship between extent of vegetative cover and runoff volume and discharge rate for a Nova Scotian watershed, suggesting that reforestation will reduce, but not completely prevent, flooding. Predicted erosion rates were found to be progressively reduced in relation to the extent of upland reforestation. Of three scenarios examined in which 60%, 65%, and 85% of the entire watershed are randomly reforested, only the latter would reduce the elevated erosion expected to occur through climate change back to present-day existing levels. Additional modelling revealed that comparable mitigation of soil erosion can ensue through implementation of 70 m streamside buffer strips, which would only take up 19% of the total surface area. Prioritizing riparian zones for reforestation will therefore subsume less of the overall productive land area and therefore enact a less severe socio-economic impact on agriculture and forestry.

Formation Conditions and Sedimentary Model of Over-Flooding Lake Deltas within Continental Lake Basins: An Example from the Paleogene in the Jiyang Subbasin, Bohai Bay Basin

A large quantity of drilling core, paleontology, geochemistry and geophysics data revealed several features of the Jiyang subbasin during the deposition of the Ekl-ES4x members： （1） the paleotopography of the gentle slope belt had an extremely low gradient; （2） the paleoclimate frequently alternated between dry and wet periods in a generally arid setting; （3） there was strong weathering around the periphery of the basin; （4） the lake was very shallow; （5） the lake level frequently rose and fell; and （6） the sedimentary environment of the gentle slope belt was an over- flooding lake. All of these factors provided favorable geological conditions for the development of an over-flooding lake delta. The lithologies of the continental over-flooding lake delta deposits are complex and diverse. The compositional maturity is moderate to low, and the grain size distribution curves and sedimentary structures indicate the presence of both gravity and traction currents. The sedimentary microfacies associations consist of a combination of ordered superposition of flood channels, distributary channels and sheet sands. The delta exhibits a weak foreset seismic reflection. The over-flooding lake delta deposits are laterally extensive. The sandstone content is high, and the individual sandstone beds are thin. The flood channel and distributary channel deposits exhibit evidence of bifurcation and lateral migration. The distribution of the sandbodies and the oxidation color of the mudstones provide evidence of cyclic deposition. The paleoclimate was the dominant factor controlling the development of the over-flooding lake delta. Due to the frequently alternating wet and dry paleoclimates, the over-flooding lake delta is characterized by the development of a broad upper plain and a lower delta plain. The upper delta plain is characterized by flood channel deposits, whereas the lower delta plain is represented by distributary channel deposits. The transition zone is characterized by the interaction of flood channels and distributary channels. Due to fault activity, the sandbodies of the over-flooding lake delta were juxtaposed against hydrocarbon source rocks, which was favorable for the development of lithologic reservoirs or structural-lithologic reservoirs. The lower delta plain deposits comprise the most favorable reservoirs.

Calibration of HEC-RAS Model on Prediction of Flood for Lower Tapi River, India

Channel roughness is a sensitive parameter in development of hydraulic model for flood forecasting and flood inundation mapping. The requirement of multiple channel roughness coefficient Mannnig’s ‘n’ values along the river has been spelled out through simulation of floods, using HEC-RAS, for years 1998 and 2003, supported with the photographs of river reaches collected during the field visit of the lower Tapi River. The calibrated model, in terms of channel roughness, has been used to simulate the flood for year 2006 in the river. The performance of the calibrated HEC-RAS based model has been accessed by capturing the flood peaks of observed and simulated floods;and computation of root mean squared error (RMSE) for the intermediated gauging stations on the lower Tapi River.