Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) takes into account as much data as possible for defining the initial seismic source zone model. In response to this, an algorithm has been developed for integration of ge...Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) takes into account as much data as possible for defining the initial seismic source zone model. In response to this, an algorithm has been developed for integration of geological, geophysical and seismological data through a spatial index showing the presence or absence of a potential seismic source feature in the input data. The spatial matching index (SMI) is calculated to define the coincidence of independent data showing any indications for existence of a fault structure. It is applied for hazard assessment of Bulgaria through quantification of the seismic potential of 416 square blocks, 20 × 20 km in size covering the entire territory of Bulgaria and extended by 20 km outside of the country borders. All operations are carried out in GIS environment using its capabilities to work with different types of georeferenced spatial data. Results show that the highest seismic potential (largest SMI) is observed in 56 block elements (13% of the territory) clearly delineating cores of the source zones. Partial match is registered in 98 block elements when one of the features is missing. Not any evidence for earthquake occurrence is predicted by our calculation in 117 elements, comprising 28% of the examined area. The quantitative parameter for spatial data integration which is obtained in the present research may be used to analyze information regardless of its type and purpose.展开更多
Torrential processes are among the main actors responsible for sediment production and mobility in mountain catchments.For this reason,the understanding of preferential pathways for sediment routing has become a prior...Torrential processes are among the main actors responsible for sediment production and mobility in mountain catchments.For this reason,the understanding of preferential pathways for sediment routing has become a priority in hazard assessment and mitigation.In this context,the sediment Connectivity Index(IC)enables to analyse the existing linkage between sediment sources and the selected target(channel network or catchment outlet).The IC is a grid-based index that allows fast computation of sediment connectivity based on landscape information derived from a single Digital Terrain Model(DTM).The index computation is based on the log-ratio between an upslope and a downslope component,including information about drainage area,slope,terrain roughness,and distance to the analysis target(e.g.outlet).The output is a map that highlights the degree of structural connectivity of sediment pathways over analysed catchments.Until now,these maps are however rarely used to help defining debris-flow hazard maps,notably due to a lack of guidelines to interpret the IC spatial distribution.This paper proposes an exploitation procedure along profiles to extract more information from the analysis of mapped IC values.The methodology relies on the analysis of the IC and its component variables along the main channel profile,integrated with information about sediment budgeting derived from Difference of DEMs(DoD).The study of connectivity was applied in the unmanaged sub-catchment(without torrent control works)of the Rio Soial(Autonomous Province of Trento–NE Italy)to understanding the geomorphic evolution of the area after five debris flows(in ten years)and the related changes of sediment connectivity.Using a recent DTM as validation,we demonstrated how an IC analysis over the older DTM can help predicting geomorphic changes and associated hazards.The results show an IC aptitude to capture geomorphic trajectories,anticipate debris flow deposits in a specific channel location,and depict preferential routing pathways.展开更多
Bridges serve as essential parts of transportation infrastructure,facilitating the movement of people and goods across rivers,valleys,and other obstacles.However,they are also susceptible to a wide range of natural ha...Bridges serve as essential parts of transportation infrastructure,facilitating the movement of people and goods across rivers,valleys,and other obstacles.However,they are also susceptible to a wide range of natural hazards,including floods,earthquakes,and landslides,which can damage or even collapse these structures,leading to severe economic and human losses.A risk index has been developed to address this issue,which quantifies the likelihood and severity of natural hazards occurring in a specific location.The application of risk indices for natural hazards in bridge management involves a data collection process and mathematical modelling.The data collection process gathers information on bridges’location,condition,and vulnerability,while mathematical modelling uses the data to assess the risk of natural hazards.Overall,risk indices provide a quantitative measure of the vulnerability of bridges to natural hazards and help to prioritize maintenance and repair activities.Mitigation measures are then evaluated and implemented based on the risk assessment results.By using this tool,the UBMS research group has developed an algorithm for risk assessment which will be essential in the decision-making process,specifically focused on enhancing Fund Optimization,Deterioration Modelling,and Risk Analysis.These developments effectively fulfill the primary objectives associated with addressing and mitigating hazards.This development also helps bridge managers understand the potential threats posed by natural hazards and allocate resources more efficiently to ensure the safety and longevity of critical transportation infrastructure.展开更多
目的在上海市闵行区高血压人群中,探究年龄和体重指数(body mass index,BMI)对癌症发生的共同作用。方法研究对象为2007—2015年进入上海市闵行区电子健康信息系统的未患癌症的212394名高血压患者。将年龄、BMI以平滑函数形式纳入广义加...目的在上海市闵行区高血压人群中,探究年龄和体重指数(body mass index,BMI)对癌症发生的共同作用。方法研究对象为2007—2015年进入上海市闵行区电子健康信息系统的未患癌症的212394名高血压患者。将年龄、BMI以平滑函数形式纳入广义加性Cox比例风险模型,用双变量响应模型构建曲面图使结果可视化,全面分析两者对癌症发生的联合效应。结果截至2018年12月31日,累计22141名高血压患者新发癌症。年龄与癌症发生风险整体呈线性趋势,而BMI与癌症发生风险整体呈“U”型,BMI在26 kg/m^(2)左右时癌症发生风险最低。不同BMI下,随着年龄增大,癌症发生风险均增加;不同年龄下,BMI与癌症发生风险的关联不同:青年人群(20~44岁)中BMI与癌症发生风险无明显关联,中老年人群(≥45岁)中BMI与癌症发生风险呈“U”型关联,BMI在26 kg/m^(2)左右时癌症发生风险最低。结论建议高血压人群控制BMI在合理范围内,特别是中老年人群,以减少癌症发生。展开更多
In this study, strong ground motion record （SGMR） selection based on Eta （~/） as a spectral shape indicator has been investigated as applied to steel braced flame structures. A probabilistic seismic hazard disaggr...In this study, strong ground motion record （SGMR） selection based on Eta （~/） as a spectral shape indicator has been investigated as applied to steel braced flame structures. A probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis for the definition of the target Epsilon （ε） and the target Eta （η） values at different hazard levels is presented, taking into account appropriately selected SGMR＇s. Fragility curves are developed for different limit states corresponding to three representative models of typical steel braced frames having significant irregularities in plan, by means of a weighted damage index. The results show that spectral shape indicators have an important effect on the predicted median structural capacities, and also that the parameter r/is a more robust predictor of damage than searching for records with appropriate c values.展开更多
Santo Domingo de Heredia, Costa Rica is a county facing serious risks from natural hazards, specifically flooding, earthquakes, volcanic activity and landslides. In order to inform disaster risk reduction efforts and ...Santo Domingo de Heredia, Costa Rica is a county facing serious risks from natural hazards, specifically flooding, earthquakes, volcanic activity and landslides. In order to inform disaster risk reduction efforts and improve the safety and well-being of local residents, this article assessed these natural hazards using a geographical approach. First, we described the four hazards based on a review of reports from previous emergencies, scientific papers and newspaper articles. Second, we integrated spatial data on each hazard to create a hazard density index for the county at the level of the census unit (n = 140). Results demonstrate that river flooding has caused the most damage of the four hazards in recent times. Both seismic and volcanic risks (specifically ash fall from volcanic eruptions) affect the entire area of Santo Domingo. Landslides have affected localized, settled areas of steep river canyons in the southern part of the county. In general, the highest density of hazards is located in the southern reaches of Santo Domingo. As such, we recommend that local authorities concentrate their management efforts in that area.展开更多
The natural radioactivity of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K and the fallout of 137Cs in soils and granite rocks of two regions in Yemen (Shabwah and Hadramout) were measured by using gamma-ray spectrometry (HPGe) detector. The ...The natural radioactivity of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K and the fallout of 137Cs in soils and granite rocks of two regions in Yemen (Shabwah and Hadramout) were measured by using gamma-ray spectrometry (HPGe) detector. The average values of the radionuclides 226Ra, 232Th and 40K in the soil samples are 14.34, 25.78 and 566.05 Bq/kg respectively. For rock samples, the average activity concentration for 226Ra, 232Th and 40K are 45, 106 and 1235 Bq/kg respectively. Low concentration values of 137Cs in soil and rock samples under investigation, are not radiologically important. The radium equivalent activity (Raeq) and external hazard index (Hex) of all samples are less than the limits of 370 Bq·kg-1 and unity, respectively. The average values of total absorbed dose rate due to three primordial radionuclides in soil and rock samples are 46.5 nGy/h and 138.36 nGy/h, respectively, where the absorbed average value of the granite is higher than the permitted limit. So, the local people must avoid using these granite samples as the interior decorative materials of dwelling without radioactivity control.展开更多
文摘Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) takes into account as much data as possible for defining the initial seismic source zone model. In response to this, an algorithm has been developed for integration of geological, geophysical and seismological data through a spatial index showing the presence or absence of a potential seismic source feature in the input data. The spatial matching index (SMI) is calculated to define the coincidence of independent data showing any indications for existence of a fault structure. It is applied for hazard assessment of Bulgaria through quantification of the seismic potential of 416 square blocks, 20 × 20 km in size covering the entire territory of Bulgaria and extended by 20 km outside of the country borders. All operations are carried out in GIS environment using its capabilities to work with different types of georeferenced spatial data. Results show that the highest seismic potential (largest SMI) is observed in 56 block elements (13% of the territory) clearly delineating cores of the source zones. Partial match is registered in 98 block elements when one of the features is missing. Not any evidence for earthquake occurrence is predicted by our calculation in 117 elements, comprising 28% of the examined area. The quantitative parameter for spatial data integration which is obtained in the present research may be used to analyze information regardless of its type and purpose.
文摘Torrential processes are among the main actors responsible for sediment production and mobility in mountain catchments.For this reason,the understanding of preferential pathways for sediment routing has become a priority in hazard assessment and mitigation.In this context,the sediment Connectivity Index(IC)enables to analyse the existing linkage between sediment sources and the selected target(channel network or catchment outlet).The IC is a grid-based index that allows fast computation of sediment connectivity based on landscape information derived from a single Digital Terrain Model(DTM).The index computation is based on the log-ratio between an upslope and a downslope component,including information about drainage area,slope,terrain roughness,and distance to the analysis target(e.g.outlet).The output is a map that highlights the degree of structural connectivity of sediment pathways over analysed catchments.Until now,these maps are however rarely used to help defining debris-flow hazard maps,notably due to a lack of guidelines to interpret the IC spatial distribution.This paper proposes an exploitation procedure along profiles to extract more information from the analysis of mapped IC values.The methodology relies on the analysis of the IC and its component variables along the main channel profile,integrated with information about sediment budgeting derived from Difference of DEMs(DoD).The study of connectivity was applied in the unmanaged sub-catchment(without torrent control works)of the Rio Soial(Autonomous Province of Trento–NE Italy)to understanding the geomorphic evolution of the area after five debris flows(in ten years)and the related changes of sediment connectivity.Using a recent DTM as validation,we demonstrated how an IC analysis over the older DTM can help predicting geomorphic changes and associated hazards.The results show an IC aptitude to capture geomorphic trajectories,anticipate debris flow deposits in a specific channel location,and depict preferential routing pathways.
文摘Bridges serve as essential parts of transportation infrastructure,facilitating the movement of people and goods across rivers,valleys,and other obstacles.However,they are also susceptible to a wide range of natural hazards,including floods,earthquakes,and landslides,which can damage or even collapse these structures,leading to severe economic and human losses.A risk index has been developed to address this issue,which quantifies the likelihood and severity of natural hazards occurring in a specific location.The application of risk indices for natural hazards in bridge management involves a data collection process and mathematical modelling.The data collection process gathers information on bridges’location,condition,and vulnerability,while mathematical modelling uses the data to assess the risk of natural hazards.Overall,risk indices provide a quantitative measure of the vulnerability of bridges to natural hazards and help to prioritize maintenance and repair activities.Mitigation measures are then evaluated and implemented based on the risk assessment results.By using this tool,the UBMS research group has developed an algorithm for risk assessment which will be essential in the decision-making process,specifically focused on enhancing Fund Optimization,Deterioration Modelling,and Risk Analysis.These developments effectively fulfill the primary objectives associated with addressing and mitigating hazards.This development also helps bridge managers understand the potential threats posed by natural hazards and allocate resources more efficiently to ensure the safety and longevity of critical transportation infrastructure.
文摘目的在上海市闵行区高血压人群中,探究年龄和体重指数(body mass index,BMI)对癌症发生的共同作用。方法研究对象为2007—2015年进入上海市闵行区电子健康信息系统的未患癌症的212394名高血压患者。将年龄、BMI以平滑函数形式纳入广义加性Cox比例风险模型,用双变量响应模型构建曲面图使结果可视化,全面分析两者对癌症发生的联合效应。结果截至2018年12月31日,累计22141名高血压患者新发癌症。年龄与癌症发生风险整体呈线性趋势,而BMI与癌症发生风险整体呈“U”型,BMI在26 kg/m^(2)左右时癌症发生风险最低。不同BMI下,随着年龄增大,癌症发生风险均增加;不同年龄下,BMI与癌症发生风险的关联不同:青年人群(20~44岁)中BMI与癌症发生风险无明显关联,中老年人群(≥45岁)中BMI与癌症发生风险呈“U”型关联,BMI在26 kg/m^(2)左右时癌症发生风险最低。结论建议高血压人群控制BMI在合理范围内,特别是中老年人群,以减少癌症发生。
文摘In this study, strong ground motion record （SGMR） selection based on Eta （~/） as a spectral shape indicator has been investigated as applied to steel braced flame structures. A probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis for the definition of the target Epsilon （ε） and the target Eta （η） values at different hazard levels is presented, taking into account appropriately selected SGMR＇s. Fragility curves are developed for different limit states corresponding to three representative models of typical steel braced frames having significant irregularities in plan, by means of a weighted damage index. The results show that spectral shape indicators have an important effect on the predicted median structural capacities, and also that the parameter r/is a more robust predictor of damage than searching for records with appropriate c values.
文摘Santo Domingo de Heredia, Costa Rica is a county facing serious risks from natural hazards, specifically flooding, earthquakes, volcanic activity and landslides. In order to inform disaster risk reduction efforts and improve the safety and well-being of local residents, this article assessed these natural hazards using a geographical approach. First, we described the four hazards based on a review of reports from previous emergencies, scientific papers and newspaper articles. Second, we integrated spatial data on each hazard to create a hazard density index for the county at the level of the census unit (n = 140). Results demonstrate that river flooding has caused the most damage of the four hazards in recent times. Both seismic and volcanic risks (specifically ash fall from volcanic eruptions) affect the entire area of Santo Domingo. Landslides have affected localized, settled areas of steep river canyons in the southern part of the county. In general, the highest density of hazards is located in the southern reaches of Santo Domingo. As such, we recommend that local authorities concentrate their management efforts in that area.
文摘The natural radioactivity of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K and the fallout of 137Cs in soils and granite rocks of two regions in Yemen (Shabwah and Hadramout) were measured by using gamma-ray spectrometry (HPGe) detector. The average values of the radionuclides 226Ra, 232Th and 40K in the soil samples are 14.34, 25.78 and 566.05 Bq/kg respectively. For rock samples, the average activity concentration for 226Ra, 232Th and 40K are 45, 106 and 1235 Bq/kg respectively. Low concentration values of 137Cs in soil and rock samples under investigation, are not radiologically important. The radium equivalent activity (Raeq) and external hazard index (Hex) of all samples are less than the limits of 370 Bq·kg-1 and unity, respectively. The average values of total absorbed dose rate due to three primordial radionuclides in soil and rock samples are 46.5 nGy/h and 138.36 nGy/h, respectively, where the absorbed average value of the granite is higher than the permitted limit. So, the local people must avoid using these granite samples as the interior decorative materials of dwelling without radioactivity control.
