Railway Passenger Flow Forecasting by Integrating Passenger Flow Relationship and Spatiotemporal Similarity

Railway passenger flow forecasting can help to develop sensible railway schedules,make full use of railway resources,and meet the travel demand of passengers.The structure of passenger flow in railway networks and the spatiotemporal relationship of passenger flow among stations are two distinctive features of railway passenger flow.Most of the previous studies used only a single feature for prediction and lacked correlations,resulting in suboptimal performance.To address the above-mentioned problem,we proposed the railway passenger flow prediction model called Flow-Similarity Attention Graph Convolutional Network(F-SAGCN).First,we constructed the passenger flow relations graph(RG)based on the Origin-Destination(OD).Second,the Passenger Flow Fluctuation Similarity(PFFS)algorithm is used to measure the similarity of passenger flow between stations,which helps construct the spatiotemporal similarity graph(SG).Then,we determine the weights of the mutual influence of different stations at different times through an attention mechanism and extract spatiotemporal features through graph convolution on the RG and SG.Finally,we fused the spatiotemporal features and the original temporal features of stations for prediction.The comparison experiments on a railway bureau’s accurate railway passenger flow data show that the proposed F-SAGCN method improved the prediction accuracy and reduced the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of 46 stations to 7.93%.

Effects of hot deformation parameters on flow stress and establishment of constitutive relationship system of BT20 titanium alloy

The hot compression experiments were performed to investigate the effects of hot deformation parameters on the flow stress of BT20(Ti-6Al-2Zr-1Mo-1V) titanium alloy. The results show that the flow stress decreases with the increment of deformation temperature and increases with the growth of strain rate. The peak stress moves toward the direction of strain reducing and the strain rate sensitivity increases with the rising deformation temperature. There is obvious deformation heating created during hot deformation under relatively higher strain rate and lower deformation temperature. The improved back propagation(BP) neural network with 3-20-16-1 architecture has been employed to establish the prediction model of flow stress using deformation degree, deformation temperature and strain rate as input variables. The predicted values obtained by BP network agree well with the measured values, the relative error is within 6.5% for the sample data and not bigger than 9% for the non-sample data, which indicates that the ANNs adopted can predict the flow stress of BT20 alloy effectively and can be used as constitutive relationship system applied to FEM simulation of plastic deformation.

High gene flows promote close genetic relationship among finewool sheep populations(Ovis aries) in China

The aim of our present study was to construct genetic structure and relationships among Chinese fine-wool sheep breeds. 46 individuals from 25 breeds or strains were genotyped based on the Illumina Ovine 50K SNP array. Meanwhile, genetic variations among 482 individuals from 9 populations were genotyped with 10 microsatellites. In this study, we found high genetic polymorphisms for the microsatellites, while 7 loci in the Chinese superfine Merino strain （Xinjiang types） （CMS） and 5 loci in Gansu alpine superfine-wool sheep strain （GSS） groups were found deviated from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium （HWE）. Genetic drift FsT=0.019 （P〈0.001） and high gene flows were detected in all the 7 fine-wool sheep populations. Phylogenetic analysis showed fine-wool sheep populations were clustered in a group independent from the Chinese indigenous breeds such that the 7 fine-wool sheep clustered distinct from Liangshan semifine-wool sheep （LS） and Hu sheep （HY） reflected by different population differentiation analyses. Overall, our findings suggested that all fine-wool sheep populations have close genetic relationship, which is consistent with their breeding progress. These populations, therefore, can be regarded as open-breeding populations with high levels of gene flows. Furthermore, the two superfine-wool strains, viz., CMS and GSS, might be formed by strong artificial selection and with frequent introduction of Australian Merino. Our results can assist in breeding of superfine-wool sheep and provide guidance for the cultivation of new fine-wool sheep breeds with different breeding objectives.

The relationship of tension and blood flow of the expanded pedicled fasciocutaneous flap in pig

Objective To evaluate the effect of wound closure tension on the blood flow of the expanded pedicled fasciocutaneous flap,so as to find the best tension for the blood supply of the flap.Methods 8 piglets,aged 9-12 months,were used.On

一种高效的OpenFlow流表拆分压缩算法

在软件定义网络中,OpenFlow通过丰富的匹配字段提供了网络流的细粒度管理,同时也带来了流表规模庞大的问题,给OpenFlow交换机的TCAM存储资源提出了严峻的挑战.为此,本文基于匹配域间关系,提出一种高效的OpenFlow流表拆分压缩算法.该算法首先分析了流表匹配字段之间的共存和互斥关系,并据此将流表划分出多个规模较小的子流表,进而针对每个字段建立判定条件,对子流表做进一步压缩,以实现OpenFlow流表的高效存储.最后,借助实际网络流量样本,对本文所提算法的流表压缩性能进行了实验评估.实验结果表明:本文所提算法的流表压缩率明显高于现有压缩算法,可有效节省流表存储资源.

Development of Risk Index of Uninterrupted Traffic Flow According to the Occurrence of Fog

The driver’s visibility is degraded when weather conditions deteriorate, which affects the traffic flow and induces traffic congestion or accidents. In particular, traffic accidents can be?led to chain reaction collisions, with high rate of fatality, when fog occurs in contrast to other weather factors that may restrict visibility. For the development of a traffic risk index, a deviation of the vehicle’s speed was set for the traffic risk index by referring to previous study results. In addition, factors that affected the deviation in a vehicle’s speed were selected as independent variables based on the traffic flow analysis during occurrences of fog. The visible distance, traffic volume, and speed were selected as the independent variables to estimate the optimal parameters in the regression model. The traffic risk index model during occurrences of fog proposed in this study is an exponential model, with the visible distance and the traffic volume defined as independent variables. According to the study model, traffic risk increased as the visible distance decreased and the traffic volume was lower. Thus, the visible distance that can affect traffic flow during occurrences of fog can be determined in the future based on the results of this study. The study results will be expected to contribute to not only traffic safety improvements, but also the facilitation of traffic flow as drivers and traffic operation managers intuitively recognize the level of risk.

基于跌坎压力自相似分布的明渠水深−流量关系推求

明渠流量计量是高效灌溉、合理分配水资源和进行用水有效管理的重要手段。跌水是常见的明渠水流上下游衔接的水利设施。当跌落水流不受跌坎下游水流影响时形成自由跌流,可用于明渠流量的精确计量。受自由跌流影响,跌坎断面水流由缓流向急流转变,压力分布显著偏离静水压力分布规律。而获得跌坎压力分布及其准确描述方程则正是明渠自由跌流流量公式推求的关键,其准确与否决定了利用跌流进行流量计量的精度。本文首先通过模型试验和数值计算对矩形明渠自由跌流的断面压力分布特征进行研究,而后利用理论推导建立了明渠跌流的水深−流量关系公式。研究发现,明渠跌水跌坎断面压力呈典型自相似分布规律,其无量纲压力值分布倾向于一条曲线,压力最大值为0.238he(he为跌坎水深),出现在竖向距跌坎0.209he水深处,并且压力自相似分布规律与明渠流量、渠道底坡和边壁糙率无关。在此基础上,结合幂函数和尾迹函数提出了描述跌坎断面压力分布的函数方程,并给出了最大压力和最大压力位置的计算公式,然后根据动量方程和流量连续方程推求了明渠自由跌流的流量计算公式。最后,对本文和其他研究者提出的流量计算公式采用试验数据进行了对比分析,结果表明:本文提出的流量公式在明渠流量为5~100 L/s,底坡为–0.0112~0.0534、糙率为0.0930~0.0193的研究范围内,具有更高的精度和适用性,计算误差在±5%之内,可适用于该流量、底坡和边壁糙率范围内矩形明渠自由跌流的流量精确计算。本文研究结果对于利用自由跌流进行明渠流量计量提供了理论与技术支撑,具有重要的工程应用价值。

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK MODEL OF CONSTITUTIVE RELATIONSHIP FOR 2A70 ALUMINUM ALLOY

The hat deformation behavior of 2A70 aluminum alloy was investigated by means of isothermal compression tests performed on a Gleeble-1500 thermal simulator over a wide range of temperatures 360-480℃ with strain rates of 0.01-1s^-1 and the largest deformation of 60%, and the true stress of the material was obtained under the above-mentioned conditions. The experimental results shows that 2A70 aluminum alloy is a kind of aluminum alloy with the property of dynamic recovery; its flow stress declines with the increase of temperature, while its flow stress increases with the increase of strain rates. On the basis of experiments, the constitutive relationship of the 2A70 aluminum alloy was constructed using a BP artificial neural network. Comparison of the predicted values with the experimental data shows that the relative error of the trained model is less than ±3% for the sampled data while it is less than ±6% for the nonsampled data. It is evident that the model constructed by BP ANN can accurately predict the flow stress of the 2A70 alloy.

CONSTITUTIVE RELATIONSHIP OF SUPERALLOY IN718

Isothermal constant speed compression tests of superalloy IN718 were conducted using a computer-controlled MTS machine at temperatures from 960 to 1040℃, with initial strain rates from 0.001 s￣(1) to 1.0 s￣(1) and engineering strain from 0.1 to 0. 7.The variations of flow stress with deformation temperature, initial strain rate and engineering strain were analyzed in the paper. It was found that there was an obvious power-law relationship between flow stress and initial strain rate, which showed the behavior of strain rate hardening of superalloy IN718 at elevated temperatures.The relationship between flow stress and temperature could be described by an inverse trigonometric function.And the turning point on the curve may be related to the behavior of δ phase at 1000℃. Meanwhile, it was found that there was a complicated relationship between flow stress and strain,which was indicative of the comprehensive effect of work hardening and dynamic softening on flow stress during hot deformation. From the results of these tests, a constitutive equation of superalloy IN718 was developed.

Parameterizations of the Daytime Friction Velocity, Temperature Scale, and Upslope Flow over Gently Inclined Terrain in Calm Synoptic Conditions

A set of new parameterizations for the friction velocity and temperature scale over gently sloped terrain and in calm synoptic conditions are theoretically derived. The friction velocity is found to be proportional to the product of the square root of the total accumulated heating in the boundary layer and the sinusoidal function of the slope angle, while the temperature scale is proportional to the product of the boundary layer depth, the sinusoidal function of the slope angle and the potential temperature gradient in the free atmosphere. Using the new friction velocity parameterization, together with a parameterization of eddy diffusivity and an initial potential temperature profile around sunrise, an improved parameterization for the thermally induced upslope flow profile is derived by solving the Prandtl equations. The upslope flow profile is found to be simply proportional to the friction velocity.

从同步数据分析乔木树干液流与气象因子的关系

[目的]树干液流是研究植物蒸腾耗水的重要生理指标,树种和气象因子均是其关键影响因素。本文旨在消除树种因素限制,探讨树干液流与气象因子之间的关系。[方法]以哈尼梯田水源区3种林分中10种乔木树种为研究对象,采用Granier热扩散探针技术测定其树干液流速率,将其同步数据与气象因子进行关联分析。[结果]从次生落叶阔叶林和原生常绿阔叶林的7779条乔木树干液流速率数据中发现7条异常数据,且这些异常数据在各个树种中都表现出同步一致性;进一步关联分析表明,太阳辐射的突然增加是产生乔木树干液流数据同步上升的主要原因,而降雨则是产生树干液流数据同步下降的主要原因,两者的变化可导致其他气象因子发生变化,从而影响树干液流速率;树干液流与气象因子存在一定的时滞效应,在发生同步异常数据的气候条件下,树干液流滞后太阳辐射0~30 min,提前于饱和水汽压差、气温和湿度0~60 min,滞后或提前时间远小于正常气候条件下各树种的时滞时间。[结论]乔木树干液流受到太阳辐射和降雨等气象因子的综合调节,其中太阳辐射的影响最为显著。研究结果可为从生理生态角度探究乔木的蒸腾作用与气象因子的关系提供科学依据。

A REACTIVE DYNAMIC CONTINUUM USER EQUILIBRIUM MODEL FOR BI-DIRECTIONAL PEDESTRIAN FLOWS

In this paper, a reactive dynamic user equilibrium model is extended to simulate two groups of pedestrians traveling on crossing paths in a continuous walking facility. Each group makes path choices to minimize the travel cost to its destination in a reactive manner based on instantaneous information. The model consists of a conservation law equation coupled with an Eikonal-type equation for each group. The velocity-density relationship of pedestrian movement is obtained via an experimental method. The model is solved using a finite volume method for the conservation law equation and a fast-marching method for the Eikonal-type equation on unstructured grids. The numerical results verify the rationality of the model and the validity of the numerical method. Based on this continuum model, a number of results, e.g., the formation of strips or moving clusters composed of pedestrians walking to the same destination, are also observed.

深圳市轨道交通车站与土地利用互动性研究

城市轨道交通与土地利用发展相互影响,两者协调发展有助于缓解城市交通拥堵,是城市可持续发展的关键问题之一.利用中国深圳市1999年与2015年的建筑普查、土地利用以及轨道交通车站刷卡数据,从开发强度、用地信息熵、车站类型及早晚高峰客流量等多个指标精细化分析轨道交通车站运能与周边土地利用之间的内在联系,并引入“节点-场所”模型构建指标体系评价轨道交通车站与土地利用间的发展协调程度,利用k-means聚类分析将二者协调状态划分为从属状态、平衡状态及失衡状态.结果表明,随着轨道交通车站开发建设,深圳市轨道交通车站周边土地集约利用水平提高;车站客流量与周边土地利用指标的相关性显著,全天客流量与容积率和商办建筑面积显著正相关,早高峰客流量与居住建筑面积和建筑密度显著正相关,而与容积率显著负相关,晚高峰客流量则与商办建筑面积和道路网密度显著正相关.深圳市轨道交通车站与站点周边土地利用协调发展水平偏低,站点类型以节点和场所价值低度均衡发展的从属状态为主,而协调状态则较少且集中分布在中心区圈层.未来应进一步对失衡节点地区采取针对性的开发策略,提升集聚效应与服务水平.

季节性河流生态环境复苏关键问题研究

全球有超过50%的河流为季节性河流,由于气候变化、极端天气与人类活动影响,这一比例仍在上升。2023年,水利部印发《母亲河复苏行动河湖名单(2022—2025年)》,79条河流中有52条为断流河流。较之一般河流,季节性河流干湿交替的水文节律孕育了其特有的生态水文非连续响应关系。长期以来,河流研究的重点多为常年流水河流,而忽视了季节性河流。针对常年流水河流的研究结论不能直接应用于季节性河流。基于大量文献调研,从季节性河流的内涵与基本特征、生态水文响应关系、健康评估、生态流量适应性调控等4个方面,对季节性河流进行总结分析。研究表明:当前季节性河流缺乏统一的定义和内涵,季节性河流自身应有的水文情势、生态系统过程缺乏深入研究,季节性河流指示生物的确定方法不统一,缺少普遍适用的季节性河流生态系统健康评价基准,缺乏针对季节性河流适宜水量阈值的优化调控方法。在季节性河流缺乏基础理论的情况下,厘清季节性河流的基本概念,科学确定其生态水文过程,形成生态系统健康评价基准,探索生态环境复苏的水量阈值优化调控方法,是解决制约季节性河流生态环境复苏关键问题的重要途径,也是亟需研究的重点方向。

要素流动对城乡融合发展的影响机理与空间分异研究

城乡要素双向自由流动有利于提高要素配置效率和优化城乡关系,促进城乡融合发展。现有关于要素流动对城乡融合发展的研究主要围绕传统生产要素对城乡融合发展的研究展开讨论,鲜有文献将数据这一新型生产要素纳入城乡要素流动范围并探索其对城乡融合发展的影响机理。基于2010—2021年中国31个省份的面板数据,在测算要素流动、城乡融合发展水平的基础上,构建双向固定效应模型、地理加权回归模型和中介效应模型实证检验要素流动对城乡融合发展的影响效应及作用机制。研究发现:第一,全国要素流动总指数呈现出小幅度增长的态势,位于均值之上的地区中64%是城乡融合发展试验区,说明城乡融合发展政策实施具有重要的引导作用;第二,要素流动显著促进城乡融合发展,这一结论在引入城乡之间距离作为工具变量进行内生性检验、采用删除4个直辖市和缩短时间窗口的方法进行稳健性检验之后仍然成立;第三,空间异质性分析中,劳动力、土地和数据要素始终表现出促进城乡融合发展的作用,随着时间的推移,土地要素对不同地区城乡融合发展影响程度逐渐增强、影响范围逐步扩大,技术要素对城乡融合发展的促进逐渐凸现,由华东和华南地区向东北和西南地区转移;第四,在要素流动影响城乡融合发展的过程中,电商销售是要素流动影响城乡融合发展的重要途径,农业机械化和产业结构变迁并未发挥出中介变量的作用,不同于已有的研究结果。因此,今后持续深化城乡融合发展的内涵与外延、拓展深度与广度;始终以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导,运用科学的世界观和方法论,坚持整体推进与试点示范相统一的指导原则,推广实践中形成的典型经验。研究结论为城乡要素双向合理流动的机制建立、城乡融合发展体制机制的健全提供了理论和经验上的参考。

基于浓度与流量突变的河流总磷通量估算

为进一步加深对流量与水质浓度突变特征的理解,探究浓度与流量突变点对通量模拟的影响,本研究基于Mann-Kendall突变检验法以及贝叶斯突变点模型,对潮河流域20多年来(1992—2014年)的径流量、总磷(TP)浓度以及二者之间关系进行突变分析,并结合LOADEST模型估算TP通量。结果表明:潮河流域径流、TP浓度整体均呈下降趋势,径流突变点发生于1998年,突变前后的平均流量分别为7.92 m^(3)·s^(-1)和2.86 m^(3)·s^(-1);TP浓度突变点发生于1993年和1996年,1992—1993年、1994—1996年和1997—2014年平均浓度分别为0.08、0.06 mg·L^(-1)和0.03 mg·L^(-1)。TP浓度-流量关系在2004年12月前后发生突变,前后两个阶段的流量阈值分别为2.36 m^(3)·s^(-1)和9.08 m^(3)·s^(-1)。突变点前,TP浓度与流量的关系是典型的流量驱动模式;突变点后二者关系会在高流量情况下转变为稀释主导模式。基于突变点识别的分段建模有助于改善LOADEST模型的模拟效果,而不同类型突变点各有优势。基于TP浓度突变点的分段模型的整体模拟效果最佳,使纳什系数从0.50提高到0.96;基于浓度-径流关系突变点的模型对关系突变后TP通量的模拟效果最佳,使纳什系数从-0.31提高到0.89。此外本研究讨论了降水及流域管理措施的可能影响。研究表明,进行水质建模及负荷模拟时,考虑水质浓度与流量及其关系的突变可在一定程度上提高模型的适用性。

覆膜种植措施对垄作农地土壤优先流空间异质性的影响

为进一步针对垄作田间农业生产制定高效的需水用肥策略提供科学支撑,将野外染色示踪试验和室内土柱水分入渗实验相结合,利用图像形态学解析、模拟入渗分析、熵权分析和灰色系统理论分析等方法,对垄作覆膜和垄作(对照)种植措施下的农地土壤优先流空间异质性特征进行分析,阐明覆膜种植措施下的垄作农地土壤优先流空间分布及其运动变化规律,揭示覆膜种植措施影响下的优先流与垄作田间土壤水分运动过程的作用关系。结果表明:在相同外部供水条件下,垄作覆膜种植农地的水分集中分布在0~10 cm土壤表层,随着土壤深度的增加分布范围逐渐缩小,其土壤染色复杂程度随着土壤深度的增加先增大后减少。而垄作种植农地在10~30 cm土壤深度范围内的水分分布出现显著的指状优先流分化现象。同时,垄作覆膜农地土壤达到饱和状态的时间是垄作农地的1.36倍,其单位时间内的平均土柱水流出流量(质量流率为0.20 g/s)显著(P<0.05)小于垄作农地(质量流率为0.35 g/s),土壤优先流程度相较更高,土壤属性中饱和导水率对优先流程度影响最大。垄作覆膜种植措施相较垄作在一定程度上能够进一步降低农地土壤空间内优先流的发生及其分布,减少水分向土壤深层渗漏,起到一定程度的蓄水保墒作用。

乡村家庭尺度全景碳流模型构建及实证

开展乡村家庭尺度的碳研究对于制定精细化的乡村碳治理策略和实现可持续发展目标具有重要意义。本研究利用物质流方法构建了乡村家庭尺度全景碳流模型,提出家庭的自然边界、社会边界和经济边界等概念,并将家庭活动划分成生产活动、经营活动和生活活动,以此架构了边界内活动及外界系统间的物质流和碳流。同时通过设立结构指标和效率指标构建了家庭碳流的评价指标体系,以衡量家庭碳排放量和碳排放价值,并以山东省淄博市的典型农耕兼业型家庭为例进行了实证分析。结果表明:家庭碳排放主要来源于能源使用,且各碳排放源的排放量差异较大;家庭投入和产出过程的碳排放量分别为44637 kg和4558 kg,碳汇过程的碳汇量为547 kg,循环过程的潜在碳排放量为1216 kg,投入过程的碳排放量远高于产出过程的碳排放量,并且碳汇和循环过程减少的碳排放量相对较低;家庭碳循环率、碳效率和人均碳排放量分别为21.0%、3.6元·kg^(-1)和12162 kg,虽然家庭碳排放水平不高,但仍有较大的减排潜力。因此,未来案例家庭应优化调整消费结构,选择低碳能源产品,采用绿色低碳生活方式,特别是对经营活动产生的厨余垃圾进行垃圾分类,加强绿色基础建设,增设餐厅垂直绿化,在美化景观的同时增加家庭碳汇。

区域智慧物流能力发展要素判定与提升路径——基于全面关系流管理理论

后疫情时代物流行业加快向智慧物流方向转型升级,提升区域智慧物流能力有助于推动物流行业高质量发展。探索区域智慧物流能力发展提升路径,能够避免资源浪费,精准发展。文章从含义、特征和构成要素三个角度对智慧物流能力进行概念辨析,分别以长三角经济区和粤港澳大湾区作为研究对象,从区域智慧物流能力感知层、网络层和应用层角度出发建立3级评价指标体系,利用基于熵值的模糊物元欧式贴近度法对两个区域十年智慧物流能力进行测度,最后基于全面关系流管理理论判定区域智慧物流能力发展关键要素,并通过分析关键要素具体情况,得出相应发展提升路径。结果表明,一方面,长三角经济区智慧物流能力总体呈现稳步上升趋势,而粤港澳大湾区智慧物流能力相对较弱,需要通过对关键要素进行判定,进而通过优化与组织关键要素来改善。另一方面,关键要素位序差异下,提升区域智慧物流能力需要通过合理安排关键要素位序以上的要素资源来实现。本研究为区域智慧物流能力发展提升路径指出明确方向,为区域物流发展提供一定参考价值。

王甫洲电厂水文站水位流量关系单值化分析研究

王甫洲电厂水文站位于王甫洲电厂尾水渠内,研究分析汉江新集水利枢纽蓄水后对王甫洲水利枢纽电厂尾水渠的顶托影响。经过一年多的水文测验验证王甫洲电厂提供的实时水位流量数据可靠、精度较高,可作为水文站定线推流的主要依据。在排除其他外部影响因素后,在电厂发电期内,可利用其水位流量均稳定时的数据建立水位流量的单一线关系。经验证,关系线可以用于推算水文站的旬平均流量、月平均流量以及时段径流。