Reexamination of the Relationship between Tropical Cyclone Size and Intensity over the Western North Pacific

This study reexamines the correlation between the size and intensity of tropical cyclones(TCs) over the western North Pacific from the perspective of individual TCs, rather than the previous large-sample framework mixing up all TC records.Statistics show that the positive size-intensity correlation based on individual TCs is relatively high. However, this correlation is obscured by mixing large samples. The weakened correlation based on all TC records is primarily due to the diversity in the size change relative to the same intensity change among TCs, which can be quantitatively measured by the linear regression coefficient(RC) of size against intensity. To further explore the factors that cause the variability in RCs that weakens the size-intensity correlation when considering all TC records, the TCs from 2001 to 2020 are classified into two groups according to their RC magnitudes, within which the high-RC TCs have a larger size expansion than the low-RC TCs given the same intensity change. Two key mechanisms responsible for the RC differences are proposed. First, the highRC TCs are generally located at higher latitudes than the low-RC TCs, resulting in higher planetary vorticity and thus higher planetary angular momentum import at low levels. Second, the high-RC TCs are susceptible to stronger environmental vertical wind shear, leading to more prolific outer convection than the low-RC TCs. The positive feedback between outer diabatic heating and boundary layer inflow favors the inward import of absolute angular momentum in the outer region, thereby contributing to a larger size expansion in the high-RC TCs.

Near-Surface Wind-Speed Stilling in Alaska during 1984-2016 and Its Impact on the Sustainability of Wind Power

Based on wind-speed records of Alaska’s 19 first-order weather stations, we analyzed the near-surface wind-speed stilling for January 1, 1984 to December 31, 2016. With exception of Big Delta that indicates an increase of 0.0157 m·s–1·a–1, on average, all other first-order weather stations show declining trends in the near-surface wind speeds. In most cases, the average trends are less then?–0.0300?m·s–1·a–1. The strongest average trend of?–0.0500?m·s–1·a–1 occurred at Homer, followed by?–0.0492?m·s–1·a–1 at Bettles, and?–0.0453?m·s–1·a–1 at Yakutat, while the declining trend at Barrow is marginal. The impact of the near-surface wind-speed stilling on the wind-power potential expressed by the wind-power density was predicted and compared with the wind-power classification of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the Alaska Energy Authority. This wind-power potential is, however, of subordinate importance because wind turbines only extract a fraction of the kinetic energy from the wind field characterized by the power efficiency. Since wind turbine technology has notably improved during the past 35 years, we hypothetically used seven currently available wind turbines of different rated power and three different shear exponents to assess the wind-power sustainability under changing wind regimes. The shear exponents 1/10, 1/7, and 1/5 served to examine the range of wind power for various conditions of thermal stratification. Based on our analysis for January 1, 1984 to December 31, 2016, Cold Bay, St. Paul Island, Kotzebue, and Bethel would be very good candidates for wind farms. To quantify the impact of a changing wind regime on wind-power sustainability, we predicted wind power for the periods January 1, 1984 to December 31, 1994 and January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2016 as well. Besides Big Delta that suggests an increase in wind power of up to 12% for 1/7, predicted wind power decreased at all sites with the highest decline at Annette (≈38%), Kodiak (≈30%), King Salmon (≈26%), and Kotzebue (≈24%), where the effect of the shear exponents was marginal. Bethel (up to 20%) and Cold Bay (up to 14%) also show remarkable decreases in predicted wind power.

Analysis of Pressure Forcings for the Vertical Turbulent Fluxes in the Convective Boundary Layer at Gray Zone Resolutions

At kilometer and sub-kilometer resolutions,known as the numerical gray zone for boundary layer turbulence,the atmospheric boundary layer turbulence becomes partially resolved and partially subgrid-scale(SGS) in a numerical model,thus requiring scale-adaptive turbulence schemes.Such schemes are often built by modifying the existing parameterizations,either the planetary boundary layer(PBL) schemes or the large-eddy simulation(LES) closures,to produce the right SGS turbulent fluxes at gray zone resolutions.However,the underlying forcings responsible for the changes in the vertical turbulent fluxes are largely ignored in these approaches.This study follows the original approach of Wyngaard(2004) and analyzes the turbulent buoyancy and momentum flux budgets,to gain a better understanding of the variations of flux forcings at gray zone resolutions.The investigation focuses on the pressure covariance term,which is one of the most dominant terms in the budget equations.By using the coarse-grained LES of a dry convective boundary layer(CBL) case as reference,two widely-used pressure covariance models are evaluated and optimized across the gray zone resolution range.The optimized linear model is further evaluated a priori against another dry CBL case with a different bulk stability,and a shallow-cumulus-topped boundary layer case.The model applies well to both cases,and notably shows good performance for the cloud layer.Based on the analysis of the flux forcings and the optimized pressure model,a scale-adaptive turbulence model for the gray zone is derived from the steady-state flux budgets.

Double-averaging analysis of turbulent kinetic energy fluxes and budget based on large-eddy simulation

The turbulent flow over a channel bed roughened by three layers of closely packed spheres with a Reynolds number of Re= 15 000 is investigated using the large eddy simulation（LES） and the double-averaging（DA） method. The DA velocity is compared with the results of the corresponding laboratory experiments to validate the LES results. The existence of the types of vortex structures is demonstrated by the Q-criterion above the permeable bed. The turbulent kinetic energy（TKE） fluxes and budget are quantified and discussed. The results show that the TKE fluxes are directed downward and downstream near the virtual bed level. In the TKE budget, the form-induced diffusion rate is significant in the vicinity of the crest bed level, and the TKE production rate and the dissipation rate attain their peaks at the crest bed level and decrease sharply below it.