利用人工神经网络预测电离层foF2参数

利用人工神经网络技术实现了电离层f_oF_2参数提前1小时预测.从f_oF_2时间序列本身的变化特征出发,根据时间序列相关分析结果确定网络输入参数.选用当前时刻f_oF_2值,预测时刻前一天的f_oF_2值,预测时刻前7天f_oF_2平均值,当前时刻前7天f_oF_2平均值,f_oF_2的一阶差分及表示当前时刻t的变量共六个参数作为神经网络输入,下一时刻值作为神经网络输出.对于太阳活动高年平均预测相对误差小于6%,均方根误差小于0.6 MHz,太阳活动低年平均预测相对误差小于10%,均方根误差小于0.5 MHz.

三亚地区电离层foF2的混沌特性分析及其预测研究

利用三亚台站2013年电离层foF2观测数据,讨论了电离层foF2的混沌特性及其预测.采用改进的C-C算法确定时间延迟和嵌入维数,计算最大李雅普诺夫指数,定量地印证foF2时间序列具有混沌特性.基于RBF神经网络的方法对foF2参量进行短期预报,并将预报结果与Volterra模型、IRI模型和实测数据进行对比.结果表明,采用RBF神经网络法可成功预测foF2的变化,相比于国际参考电离层模型有较大提高,较Volterra模型也有一定提升.在一定时间尺度内,RBF神经网络预测结果较为准确,预测误差较小,超出该预测范围,预测效果将变差.

支持向量机用于电离层foF2的短期区域预报

为了提高电离层短期区域预报效果,提出了基于支持向量机方法考虑太阳活动、地磁活动、中高层大气、地理位置等因素对电离层的影响.对中国地区电离层F2层临界频率(foF2)提前1h的区域预报模型,将支持向量机的预报模型与输入同样参数的反向传播神经网络和国际参考电离层模型从多方面进行对比分析,结果显示,支持向量机模型的年平均预报相对误差相对神经网络和国际参考电离层模型在太阳活动高年分别降低了2.5%和9.6%,在太阳活动低年分别降低了1.9%和7.5%.在低纬度地区,支持向量机模型的预报优势更加显著,在高年和低年相对反向传播神经网络分别降低了3.2%和2.7%.对暴时,支持向量机模型也表现出一定的预报能力.这表明支持向量机模型应用在中国区域电离层foF2短期预报上,相对反向传播神经网络和国际参考电离层模型更有优势.

F-box基因FOF2在拟南芥盐和冷胁迫响应中的功能分析

FOF2为F-box蛋白家族成员,其生物学功能尚不清楚.采用实时荧光定量PCR和生理学实验相结合的方法,对FOF2基因的表达模式及其在拟南芥抗盐和冷胁迫响应中的作用进行了分析.研究发现,FOF2在拟南芥根、茎生叶和果荚中表达较高,并且其表达受盐和冷胁迫诱导.FOF2过表达株系对盐胁迫敏感,与野生型相比种子萌发率低、幼苗主根较短;相反,fof2突变体对盐胁迫的敏感性则减弱.FOF2过表达和缺失突变体种子萌发对冷胁迫无响应,但其主根在冷处理中分别比野生型短或者长.盐处理下,FOF2过表达株系中盐胁迫反应相关基因的表达量显著降低,fof2突变体中则升高;冷处理下,FOF2过表达株系中冷胁迫反应相关基因的表达量显著升高,fof2突变体中则降低.结果表明,FOF2在植物抗盐胁迫响应中起负调控作用,在抗冷胁迫响应中则可能起正调控作用.

Variability of the Critical Frequency foF2 for Equatorial Regions during Solar Cycle’s Minima and Maxima at Ouagadougou and Manila Stations

In this paper we report on the foF2 variabilities for two equatorial regions (Ouagadougou: Lat. 12.4°N;Long. 358.5°E, Dip. 1.43°S;and Manila: Lat. 14°36'15.12''N;Long. 120°58'55.92''E;Dip. 0.6°S) during solar cycles 20 and 21 minima and maxima phases. Many previous works have argued on the diurnal and seasonal variation of foF2 for different solar events conditions for latitudinal position. But there are few investigations for Africa equatorial region longitudinal variation. The present paper’s goal is to outline possible similarity in foF2 behavior between variations for better understanding of physical process lead to some observed phenomenon in Asia-Africa equatorial sector. The F-layer critical frequency (foF2) data observed from the two equatorial ionosonde stations have been used for the present comparative study. The results show significant similarity between the critical frequency (foF2) seasonal variations over the time intervals 1976-1996. During day-time measured data from Manila station are higher than those from Ouagadougou station. That may lie in that Manila is closer to equatorial ionization crest region. During solar minimum phase, the longitudinal variation of foF2 shows two crossing points (11:00 UT and 22:00 UT) between the foF2 profiles form the two stations for all seasons regardless of the solar cycle. However during intense solar activity condition, the number of crossing-point between measured data from Manila and Ouagadougou stations varies by seasons and solar cycle. This phenomenon may be due to the compilations of severe activities (storms, coronal mass ejection, heliosheet fluctuations) during the solar maximum phases.

高频干扰重心频率与foF2的相关性

本文给出84至89年,在4个不同地点,用不同的天线测试的ICF与反射中点foF 2的相关关系。8组试验数据表明:用ICF推算1000公里以内的foF 2其估算的标准偏差小于O.94MHz,它们之间的相关系数大于O.898,估算值与实测值的偏差小于1.5 MHz的概率高于91.1％。

基于COSMIC数据开展全球电离层foF2建模及变化特征研究

电离层foF2是短波通信、天波超视距雷达系统所需的关键环境参数,使用2006—2014年COMSIC(constellation observing system for meteorology,ionosphere,and climate)掩星电离层数据和多项式方法,自主构建了高精度全球电离层foF2经验模型,并使用2015—2019年观测数据进行独立检验。本模型结果与建模及独立检验时段电离层foF2观测数据的相关系数分别为0.948和0.937,平均偏差分别为2.38%和3.08%,相对误差分别为11.72%和12.69%。利用该模型研究了电离层foF2时空变化特征,结果表明电离层foF2日夜变化幅度随纬度增加而变大,春秋分季期间南半球日夜变化幅度显著高于北半球,而夏季半球则远低于冬季半球。电离层foF2季节变化幅度随纬度增加而变大,夜间电离层foF2的季节变化以年特征为主,白天则包含了显著的年、半年特征,夜间季节变化幅度明显高于白天,南半球显著高于北半球。电离层foF2中纬槽现象主要出现在春秋分季夜间,经度方向四波结构主要出现在太阳活动低年和春秋分季期间。

Characteristic of Ionospheric foF2 and Solar Indices during the 23rd Solar Cycle over High Latitude Station, Syowa, Antarctica

The behavior and dynamics of ionosphere are completely dependent on the solar activity. We have investigated the long term variability of ionospheric parameter foF2 with corresponding changes in the solar activity during the 23rd solar cycle. The variation of the critical frequency of ionospheric foF2 at Syowa Station Antarctica, (69°S, 39°E) is examined with four different solar activity indices characterizing the long term variability of solar activity wise Flare Index, relative sunspot number (Rz), solar flux F10.7 cm and CME occurrence index. We compared the dependency of foF2 and other solar activity indices on each other by using linear correlation investigation, and showed the qualitative similarity of the ionospheric foF2 with the solar indices. We notice that hysteresis of foF2 is lower for the growing branches of the solar cycle. The individual dissimilarity of critical frequency foF2 demonstrated the dependency on the solar cycle but this variation was different during the months, which depended on solar activity and polar ionospheric behavior. The peak to peak variation between monthly average of critical frequency foF2 and solar indices parameter is evidence for the absolute dependency for each other. The linear correlation between the solar indices and foF2 is very strong during the climbing and downward branches of the solar cycle. However the incline of their linear fits shows variations from index to index.

foF2 Long-Term Trend at a Station Located near the Crest of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly

Critical frequency foF2 long-term trends at Dakar station (14.4°N, 342.74°E) located near the crest of the equatorial ionization anomaly EIA, are analysed taking into account geomagnetic activity, increasing greenhouse gases concentration and Earth’s magnetic field secular variation. After filtering solar activity effect using F10.7 as a solar activity proxy, we determined the relative residual trends slopes α values for three different levels of geomagnetic activity. For example, at 1200 LT, the value of α goes from -0.27%/year for very magnetically quiet days to -0.19%/year for magnetically quiet days and to -0.13%/year for all days. It appears from the slopes α obtained, that they increase with the level of geomagnetic activity and their negative values are qualitatively consistent with the expected decreasing trend due to the increase in greenhouse gases concentration but are greater than 0.003%/year which would result from a 20% increase in CO2 emissions which actually took place during the analysis period. Regarding Earth’s magnetic field magnitude, B secular variation and the dip equator secular movement, Dakar station is located near the crest of the equatorial ionization anomaly, Earth’s magnetic field magnitude, B decreases there and the trough approaches the position of Dakar during the period of analysis. These two phenomena induce a decrease in foF2 which is in agreement with the decreasing trend observed at this station.

Comparative Study of the Geomagnetic Activity Effect on foF2 Variation as Defined by the Two Classification Methods at Dakar Station over Solar Cycle Phases

This paper aims to establish a comparison between both geomagnetic activity classification methods on foF2 diurnal variation over solar cycle phases. It concerns first a comparison of geomagnetic activity occurrences according to both classification methods;and second the geomagnetic effect on foF2 diurnal variation profiles as defined for the equatorial latitudes. The occurrences of the different disturbed geomagnetic activities (recurrent activity (RA), shock activity (SA) and fluctuant activity (FA)) according to both classifications (ancient classification (AC) and new classification (NC)) have been studied at Dakar ionosonde station (Lat: 14.8°N;Long: 342.6°E). Regarding both classifications, the RA occurs more during the decreasing phase. And it’s observed that the RA occurs the most during the increasing phase for the AC and during the minimum phase for the NC. The maximum gap of occurrence () between both classifications is -11.1% (for the negative value which is observed during the increasing phase) and +16.74% (for the positive one which is observed during the decreasing phase). The occurrence of the SA in relation with both classifications is the lowest during the minimum phase and the maximum occurrence is observed during the maximum and decreasing phases, for the AC, with a value close to 37% and for the NC at the maximum phase with a percentage of 54.47%. The maximum gap of occurrence () between both classifications is -17.85% (for the negative value which is observed at maximum phase) and +13.53% (for the positive one which is observed during the decreasing phase). For both classifications, the FA occurs the least during the minimum phase and the most during the maximum phase for the AC and at maximum and decreasing phases with percentage values of occurrence of roughly 37% for the NC. The maximum gap of occurrence () between both classifications is -10% (for the negative value which is observed during the decreasing phase) and +20.11% (for the positive one which is observed during the maximum phase). foF2 diurnal profiles throughout solar cycle phases concerning the AC and the NC have been compared. The FA diurnal profiles don’t present a difference. The RA and the SA present a difference during minimum and increasing phases and the least at maximum and decreasing phases.

Comparative Study of foF2 during Quiet Geomagnetic Activity with URSI and CCIR Predictions during the Phase Minimum of Solar Cycle 22

This paper investigates the performance of the latest International Reference Ionosphere model to predict the critical frequency at low latitudes in the African region. The variability of the critical frequency of the F2 layer of the ionosphere (foF2) is studied for the different seasons of the phase minimum of solar cycle 22 during quiet geomagnetic activity at the Ouagadougou station. The data used are those provided by the ionosonde and the predictions of the two subprograms: International Radio Consultative Committee (CCIR) and International Radio-Scientific Union (URSI) of the 2016 version of the International Reference Ionosphere model. This study shows that, in general, URSI and CCIR of the IRI-2016 model are able to reproduce fairly well the variability of the critical frequency of the F2 layer of the ionosphere at low latitudes during the phase minimum at the Ouagadougou station. However, the model shows an almost homogeneous overestimation of the foF2 during the four seasons studied. The good response is observed between 0700 TL and 1900 TL for the available data. The agreement between the subroutine responses and the observed results is between reasonable and poor. The best match state response is obtained in winter with the CCIR subroutine. These results show that there is a need to improve both CCIR and URSI subroutines of the IRI-2016 model in low latitudes in the African region.

Atmospheric Meteorological Parameters and Ionospheric F2 Layer Critical Frequency (foF2) Observation for 6^th December, 2016 Indonesia Earthquake (M 6.5): A Case Study

On 6^th December, 2016, an earthquake with M 6.5 occurred at the tectonic plate boundary, southwest of Sumatra, Indonesia (Latitude: 0.5897°S, Longitude: 101.3431°E). In this case, ionospheric critical frequency of F2 layer (foF2) variations and meteorological parameters, viz., air temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and wind speed variations were investigated so as to detect any anomalies. Data are obtained from different websites freely available for researchers. In the absence of real ionosonde foF2 data, IRI 2016 model data were used. For each parameter, anomaly window were defined when values fell beyond ± 6 ℃,< 70 %,± 4 mb and ± 3.5 km h-1 from the event day value and one third of total foF2 values broke the limits of the upper and lower bounds. Certain random anomalies in temperature, relative humidity, pressure, wind speed and foF2 frequencies were observed different days prior to occurrence of the quake but each parameter showed anomalies 12 days before the occurrence. Also, geomagnetic tranquility was justified through Kp and Dst indices. This study reveals that continuous monitoring of atmospheric meteorological parameters and regular ionospheric foF2 observations might help us to predict an earthquake about a week prior to the occurrence.

太阳活动低年(2005—2007)期间中国低纬地区电离层foF2变化特性

利用2005—2007年广州、海口和重庆三个台站的foF2数据,研究了foF2日变化、季节变化和foF2随太阳活动的变化规律,以及空间天气事件如磁暴对foF2的影响.结果发现:foF2的日变化规律体现在日出前出现最小值,海口和广州两站在14:00—16:00出现最大值,重庆站在12:00—14:00出现最大值;春秋季foF2均值高于夏冬季节,春季高于秋季,冬季高于夏季(重庆站不明显);从2005年开始,临频值整体下降,与太阳黑子数呈现正的线性关系;在2005-08-24开始的磁暴期间在磁暴的主相发生foF2的正向扰动,在磁暴发生的第二天foF2整体呈现负向扰动.综合以上信息可知,我国低纬地区可以划分为赤道异常区和非赤道异常区,两个地区foF2有所相似但仍有不同,应结合太阳活动具体分析.

Variability of the Critical Frequency foF2 during Minimum and Maximum Phases of Solar Cycles 20 and 21: A Comparative Study between American and African Equatorial Regions

The present work is a comparative study between the foF2 variabilities for two equatorial regions (Ouagadougou: lat. 12°21'N;long. 1°30'E, dip. 1.43° in Africa and Huancayo: Lat. 12°S;Long. 75°12'W in America) during solar cycles 20 and 21 minima and maxima phases under geomagnetic extreme conditions (quiet and disturb). Profiles from these two stations are very similar for all the seasons over the solar cycles. However, measured data from Huancayo station are higher than those from Ouagadougou station during winter with a reverse phenomenon for summer. The investigations suggest that the gap between foF2 values and the reverse phenomenon observed for the two stations may be explained by their hemispheric location (Huancayo in south hemisphere and Ouagadougou in North one). Longitudinal irregularities in ionosphere may also contribute to that little difference observed during the time interval of our investigation.

foF2 Diurnal Variability at African Equatorial Stations:Dip Equator Secular Displacement Effect

The paper goal is to analyze the variability of foF2 at African equatorial stations and the effect of dip angle on this variability. The gap between the dip angle of Dakar and Ouagadougou is superior to that between Djibouti and Ouagadougou. The trend of the dip angle at Ouagadougou and Dakar decreases while that of Djibouti increases. The relative position of the station with respect to the equator and the trend sign explains the difference observed in foF2 variability at Dakar station and at the two other stations. At Djibouti and Ouagadougou, foF2 exhibits noon bite out profile during all solar cycle phases while at Dakar observed profile is dome or plateau during the maximum and the predominance afternoon peak for the other solar cycle phases.

Statistical Study of foF2 Diurnal Variation at Dakar Station from 1971 to 1996:Effect of Geomagnetic Classes of Activity on Seasonal Variation at Solar Minimum and Maximum

The statistical study of F2 layer critical frequency at Dakar station from 1971 to 1996 is carried out. This paper shows foF2 statistical diurnal for all geomagnetic activities and all seasons and that during solar maximum and minimum phases. It emerges that foF2 diurnal variation graphs at Dakar station exhibits the different types of foF2 profiles in African EIA regions. The type of profile depends on solar activity, season and solar phase. During solar minimum and under quiet time condition, data show?the signature of a strength electrojet that is coupled with intense counter electrojet in the afternoon. Under disturbed conditions,?mean intense electrojet is observed in winter?during fluctuating and recurrent activities. Intense counter electrojet is seen under fluctuating and shock activities in all seasons coupled with strength electrojet in autumn. In summer?and spring under all geomagnetic activity condition, there is intense counter electrojet. During solar maximum, in summer and spring there is no electrojet under geomagnetic activity conditions.?Winter shows a mean intense electrojet. Winter and autumn are marked by the signature of the reversal electric field.

Anomalous Ionospheric foF2 Variations Observed Prior to the Dalbandin Earthquake in Pakistan

Ionosphereic foF2 variations are very sensitive to the seismic effect and results of ionospheric perturbations associated with earthquakes seem to very hopeful for short-term earthquake prediction. On January 18,2011 at 20: 23 UT a great earthquake( M = 7. 2)occurred in Dalbandin( 28. 73° N,63. 92° E),Pakistan. In this study,we have tried to find out the features of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies by using the hourly day time( 08. 00 a. m.- 05. 00 p. m.) data of critical frequency( foF2) obtained by three vertical sounding stations installed in Islamabad( 33. 78°N,73. 06°E),Multan( 32. 26°N,71. 51°E) and Karachi( 24. 89° N,67. 02° E), Pakistan. The results show the significant anomalies of foF2 in the earthquake preparation zone several days prior to the Dalbandin earthquake. It is also observed that the amplitude and frequency of foF2 anomalies are more prominent at the nearest station to the epicenter as compared to those stations near the outer margin of the earthquake preparation zone. The confidence level for ionospheric anomalies regarding the seismic signatures can be enhanced by adding the analysis of some other ionospheic parameters along with critical frequency of the layer F2.

中国低纬地区foF2实测数据缺失的分布特征研究

利用美国NOAA和澳大利亚IPS提供的foF2实测数据,研究中国低纬地区foF2数据缺失的分布特征以及产生缺失的相关原因.结果表明:(1)foF2缺失是一个夜间现象,白天的缺失远比晚上少,并且在夏季的6或7月份的缺失最多、春秋季月份缺失较多、冬季月份则较少;(2)从一个太阳周期变化上看,foF2的缺失与太阳黑子数有着相反的变化规律,即太阳黑子数越高foF2的数据缺失越少,反之则越高.(3)foF2晚上时段的缺失在午夜前和午夜后的分布有明显不同,表现为夏季时段,午夜后的缺失占据主导;而在春秋季节,则表现为午夜前的缺失占据主导.通过分析研究,我们得到的结论是晚间foF2缺失的直接原因是扩展F层的出现所造成,并且不同类型的扩展F层造成的缺失分布也会不一样.统计表明,晚间foF2缺失与扩展F层的相关系数高达0.93.本文第一次从数据缺失上,对中国低纬地区foF2实测数据进行研究,得到比较完整的缺失分布特征,并给出了产生缺失的原因,可能对以后的研究有一定的参考意义.

Comparative analysis of extreme ultraviolet solar radiation proxies during minimum activity levels

Four extreme ultraviolet(EUV)solar radiation proxies(Magnesium II core-to-wing ratio(MgII),Lymanαflux(Fα),10.7-cm solar radio flux(F10.7),and sunspot number(Rz))were analyzed during the last four consecutive solar activity minima to investigate how they differ during minimum periods and how well they represent solar EUV radiation.Their variability within each minimum and between minima was compared by considering monthly means.A comparison was also made of their role in filtering the effect of solar activity from the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer,foF2,which at mid to low latitudes depends mainly on EUV solar radiation.The last two solar cycles showed unusually low EUV radiation levels according to the four proxies.Regarding the connection between the EUV“true”variation and that of solar proxies,according to the foF2 filtering analysis,MgII and Fαbehaved in a more stable and suitable way,whereas Rz and F10.7 could be overestimating EUV levels during the last two minima,implying they would both underestimate the inter-minima difference of EUV when compared with the first two minima.