Asymmetric relationship between global and national factors and domestic food prices:evidence from Turkey with novel nonlinear approaches

This study investigates the asymmetric relationship between global and national fac-tors and domestic food prices in Turkey,considering the recent rapid and continuous increase in domestic food prices.In this context,six global and three national explana-tory variables were included,and monthly data for the period from January 2004 to June 2021 were used.In addition,novel nonlinear time-series econometric approaches,such as wavelet coherence,Granger causality in quantiles,and quantile-on-quantile regression,were applied for examination at different times,frequencies,and quan-tiles.Moreover,the Toda-Yamamoto(TY)causality test and quantile regression(QR)approach were used for robustness checks.The empirical results revealed that(i)there is a significant relationship between domestic food prices and explanatory variables at different times and frequencies;(ii)a causal relationship exists in most quantiles,excluding the lowest quantile,some middle quantiles,and the highest quantile for some variables;(iii)the power of the effect of the explanatory variables on domestic food prices varies according to the quantiles;and(iv)the results were validated by the TY causality test and QR,which show that the results were robust.Overall,the empiri-cal results reveal that global and national factors have an asymmetric relationship with domestic food prices,highlighting the effects of fluctuations in global and national variables on domestic food prices.Thus,the results imply that Turkish policymakers should consider the asymmetric effects of global and national factors on domestic food prices at different times,frequencies,and quantiles.

Climate Change and Food Price: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies, 1990-2021

Climate extreme events have threatened food security and the second Sustainable development goals (SDGs) “zero hunger” both directly via agricultural food loss and indirectly through rising food prices. We systematically searched and used a combination of results from various models, which play a crucial role in predicting the potential impact of climate change on agricultural production and food price. Therefore, we searched online databases including EMBASE, Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar, and grey literature. Then observational studies were included from January 1990 to August 2021, which reported food price proportion under climate disturbances. Results showed that 22 out of 26 studies from 615 articles, identified in the meta-analysis predicted the food price ratio would be fluctuated up to 28% before 2020, while the ratio will be marked up at 31% from 2020 to 2049 and then will scale down during 2050-2100. The compiled ratio was estimated at 26% in the long period between 2000 until 2100 under climatic weather events. Drought was a significant weather disturbance with a 32% increase in food prices. Consequently, the Food price increase will significantly affect food accessibility in lower-income countries, primarily until 2050. Policymakers should prioritize and act through redesigning food security policies according to climatic extremes in their settings.

The Response of Consumer Food Price Index(CFPI)due to the Impact of Pandemic COVID-19 on Indian Agriculture Sector

India is an agricultural country and a core source of income for the world population.The Indian economy is greatly depending on agriculture that is decrease day by day due to pandemic COVID-19.India is a major exporter of many crop foods.India,Thailand,and Vietnam are the major exports of rice if these stopped exports it reduces the economy up to 15%.A related circumstance is built up with diverse yields too like wheat,sunflower whose fare has been stationary by Kazakhstan,Serbia individually.In India,the end of April is the main source of income to farmers because they sell their rabi crops(wheat,mustard,maize,lentil,chilies,gram,tomatoes)in the market drastically decreases of CFPI may lead to the distress of Indian agricultural economy.The change over time in the price of options on wheat futures reveals increased price volatility in response to growing uncertainty about the COVID-19 impacts.

Comparative Analysis of Food Price Policies in the Developed Countries

As the basis for maintenance of national security and global strategic material,food has always captured the attention of governments in the world.After reaching a certain stage of industrialization,most countries will take the food support and protection measures,and the policy objectives and policy tools have evolved into a set of policy systems through continuous adjustment,but the intervention in food price has always been present.The food price intervention only plays a role in regulating food market supply and demand and guaranteeing minimum income for grain producers,and it can not reflect the cost of food production and continuously improve grain producers' income,but because of its simple operation,low cost and immediate effect,it is suitable for the countries with a large number of grain producers but small operation scale in the short term.

Food Commodity Prices Volatility: The Role of Biofuels

Food commodity prices have recently increased sharply and become more volatile, highlighting greater uncertainty in markets and threatening global food security. High fuel prices combined with legislative mandates have increased biofuel production raising the average cost of food on the global market and particularly in developing countries and established a link between crude oil and agricultural prices. We investigate the role of biofuels in explaining increased volatility in food commodities. Multivariate GARCH models and volatility decompositions are estimated on grains and crude oil daily prices over a twelve-year sample from 2000-2011. We find increases in correlations and co-movements between grains and crude oils prices after 2006 and particularly in 2008 when crude oil prices were high. Increased volatility in grains during the 2008-09 spike was largely due to shocks transmitted from crude oil to grains especially corn, wheat and soybean prices.

The Social Determinants of Food Purchasing Practices: Who Chooses Price-before-Health, Taste-before-Price or Organic Foods in Australia?

A survey of the extent to which cost, taste and health considerations impact food purchasing practices in Australia was conducted. Data were gathered from a national computer assisted telephone survey of 1109 randomly sampled house- holders and analysed using multiple logistic regression analysis. 88% of respondents considered the taste of food before its price, with females and people on higher incomes more likely to do so. 52% of respondents said that they considered the price of food before its health and nutritional benefits, with males, younger people and people with lower educa- tional qualifications more likely to do so. 49% said that they purchase organic food, with people with 1 child, full-time employed and people never married more likely to do so. Overall, gender, income, education, work status, age and family size are all important predictors of food purchasing practices in Australia.

动态价格约束下生鲜无人零售点选址-路径方法研究

“新零售”创新了生鲜无人零售的渠道和销售模式,通过研究网络化无人售货的技术优势,引入在线动态定价机制,解决了生鲜无人销售品控难、客户黏度低的问题,有效减低了系统综合成本;同时构建了一种面向生鲜商品的无人零售的干线和支线混杂配送模型,在多目标求解、问题解耦和PSO全局优化等方面进行突破,建立了一种动态价格约束下的带时间窗选址-路径二级运输模型(2E-dPLRPTW),并进行了案例验算,确认该方法能有效提升生鲜商品无人售卖的效益。

饮食结构优化与农业碳减排的协同路径研究——基于食物价格的分析

基于2015―2021年省级面板数据,利用二次近乎理想的需求系统(QUAIDS)模型估计城乡居民食物需求弹性,并进一步基于食物价格分析城乡居民饮食结构优化与农业碳减排的协同路径。研究发现:就单类食物价格变化来看,蔬菜水果价格降低不具碳减排效应,提高猪肉价格具有碳减排效应,但会减少居民动物性食物消费总量,只有水产品价格下降或牛羊肉价格上涨可以优化居民饮食结构、促进农业碳减排;从多类食物价格变化组合效应来看,降低蔬菜水果和水产品价格,并同比例提高猪肉、牛羊肉价格可以在增加植物和动物性食物消费总量的情况下,优化居民饮食结构、促进农业碳减排;相同情境下,城镇居民人均碳减排绝对量略大于农村居民。

Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic on the International Food Supply Chain and Countermeasures of Shandong Province

The COVID-19 epidemic has exerted an impact on the global food supply chain,and also has contributed to the tendency of food hoarding and short supply;strong food demand has led to a rapid rise in international food prices,which has put enormous pressure on China's food import,and domestic food price showed a rise trend accordingly.In order to ensure sufficient and stable supply of China's food market,it is necessary to adhere to the food security strategy of"food self-sufficiency"for a long term.In the spring agricultural production,Shandong Province has taken effective measures to stabilize food production and achieved good results.It has not been greatly affected by the COVID-19 epidemic;however,under the continuous spread of foreign epidemics,we must adhere to the dual hard core operation of epidemic prevention and production,and explore the establishment of technical specifications for agricultural production under normal conditions for epidemic prevention and control to ensure the food security.

国际粮食价格波动对中国粮食安全的影响分析

目前世界范围内粮食供求基本面相对脆弱,诸多粮食种类产需紧张,区域性结构性矛盾日益凸显,粮食价格一直相对偏高。此外,由于供需错配、区域性冲突、货币价格波动、能源价格变化等,致使国际粮食价格波动较大。近些年来,中国粮食供给稳定、库存丰盈,国际粮食价格变动对国内粮食安全影响程度相对较低,但大豆、食用植物油等对外依存度较高且市场化程度高的粮食往往会受到国际价格的影响,供应安全等易受影响。针对国际市场存在的不确定性与不稳定性,中国应从国内供应入手,着力提高粮食保供能力,全方位夯实粮食安全根基,同时防止国外的输入性风险,提升粮食市场的抗风险能力,扩大粮食领域的国际合作面,筑牢国家粮食安全防线。

经济和贸易政策不确定性、地缘政治风险与食品价格波动信息流——基于EEMD模型的多尺度转移熵分析

食品价格稳定是一国宏观经济政策的主要目标之一。进入21世纪,经济和政治不确定性不断提升,并影响一国食品价格的波动,正确认识经济和政治不确定性对食品价格的影响至关重要。以经济和贸易政策不确定性指数表征经济不确定性,以地缘政治风险指数表征政治不确定性,采用集合经验模态分解(EEMD),通过信号分解和重构,构建高频分量、低频分量和趋势项,并采用转移熵方法,构建多尺度信号转移熵矩阵,基于社会网络方法分析转移熵矩阵的网络特征。研究发现:经济和贸易政策不确定性、地缘政治风险和食品价格波动率之间存在复杂而多尺度的相互影响,这种影响主要体现为中期和长期效应,即经济和贸易政策不确定性、地缘政治风险在长期内影响食品价格的中期和长期波动,食品价格的中期和长期波动又影响了经济政策不确定性的中期波动。中期和长期内食品价格波动率在整个互动网络中处于更为重要的位置。地缘政治风险和贸易政策不确定性对食品价格波动的影响是单向的,而经济政策不确定性对食品价格波动的影响是双向的。针对结论,提出如下建议:保持经济和贸易政策中长期的稳定性;关注地缘政治风险对食品价格波动的影响。要继续坚持以习近平关于构建人类命运共同体的思想为指引,致力于多边合作和互利共赢,在长期内降低中国的地缘政治风险。

The Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Grain Price on CPI in Hubei Province

The paper analyzes the change trend of Hubei province grain price and its influence on CPI, based on data from1990-2014. The analysis results show that the grain price goes through a change of early rising and later reducing during1990-2014, and smoothly fluctuated in recent years with a downward trend; grain price and CPI fluctuations have a consistent trend, but the grain price volatility is ahead of CPI fluctuation; grain price has positive influences on the CPI; there is a longterm equilibrium relationship between them, namely,grain price is a significant cause of CPI fluctuation. Therefore, we should take various measures to stabilize grain price in order to stabilize the CPI.

The impacts of biofuels on food security and supply in China

Biofuels are the current promising alternative to fossil fuels. However, the fluctuating food prices caused by oil price led to critics to biofuels. The paper surveyed biofuels production and grain production and consumption demand, and come to the conclusion that there was a little impact of corn ethanol on international food price, and there was no impact on China’s food prices. China has launched non-food biofuels development strategy to use marginal lands for growing hard crops, such as sweet sorghum, tuber crops, and switchgrass etc. to produce biofuels without any impact on food security in the future.

Study on the Reform of Agricultural Supply Side Based on Food Security

In December 2015,the Central Rural Work Conference put forward the structural reform of agricultural supply side,to ensure the national food security. At present,China's grain production is increasing,the supply and demand structure of grain market is not balanced,and the ineffective supply due to the lack of market supply and demand has caused the problem of structural surplus and structural shortage.And price and quality difference of domestic and international grain is obvious,and the agricultural products in China are overstock,so the reform of agricultural supply side based on food security must be implemented. To adjust structure,reduce stock,reduce cost,increase quality,promote the primary,secondary and tertiary industries convergence will become the focus of China's agricultural supply side structural reform,and we can develop the ecological agriculture,improve the competitiveness of the grain market in price and quality,to ensure food security for the nation.

Grain Prices in China: a Review and Policy Proposals

Based on in-depth analysis of grain price fluctuations and their repercussions since 2003, this paper summarizes national grain price control measures undertaken in recent years, identifies their effects and remaining problems, and calls on relevant departments to pay close attention to current grain production and the grain market. Lastly, the paper puts forward policy proposals for making price regulation more predictive, directed and e ective.

互联网生态下舆情对粮食安全的影响

新冠肺炎疫情(以下简称“疫情”)在全球爆发后,引发一些粮食主要生产国限制出口,还有一些国家对国际贸易增设壁垒、阻断物流,导致良好的全球粮食供需关系被扭曲,全球粮价出现暴涨,引发各国政府和民众对粮食安全的高度关注。影响粮食安全的传统因素包括实际的产量、库存量、消费量、贸易量的增减变化,引发供需关系变化,并作用于价格。在互联网高度发达的背景下,上述信息经互联网传播发酵后,会形成一定规模的社会舆情,其传播效应甚至扭曲短期的供需关系和价格,也是影响粮食安全的重要因素。本文以疫情期间国际国内的几次涉粮舆情为例,分析互联网生态下舆情对粮食安全的影响,提出粮食安全基础仍需持续夯实,并要正确认识常态与极限思维下安全的关系、微观安全与宏观安全的关系、现在安全与未来安全的关系,持续做好互联网下的信息发布与舆情管理等方面的建议,为把握住正向引导预期、管理舆情主动权提供参考。

中国城市间食品价格水平测度及空间相依性研究

本文利用全国29个城市106种同质可比规格品的电商平台价格数据,基于世界银行国际比较项目的两步法测算框架,测算我国城市层面的食品价格水平,并对其空间分布特征、相依模式及影响因素进行深入研究。研究发现,样本城市总体食品价格水平存在显著差异;生鲜类食品在城市间的价格水平差异较大,而包装类食品的价格水平差异较小;通过对基期测算数据进行外推发现,2001—2021年间,样本城市的食品价格水平有收敛趋势。基于空间视角的研究发现,食品价格水平呈现出一定的城市群聚集效应;与地理空间相关性相比,城市间食品价格水平的经济空间相关性更强;城市的食品价格水平很大程度上取决于其经济发展水平,并受相近发展水平城市的空间外溢影响。研究结论表明,为有效提升政策的精准性,在制定最低工资标准、最低生活保障以及收入分配等政策时应充分考虑地区价格水平差异。

后疫情时代中国粮食价格支持政策的效果分析

新冠疫情蔓延导致全球粮食供应链受阻,国际粮食市场价格大幅波动,部分国家粮食供需失衡。通过梳理中国实施的最低收购价、生产者补贴、农业保险补贴等主要粮食价格支持政策效果,比较发现与国际市场明显不同的是,国内粮食连年丰收、粮食市场价格相对平稳、粮农基本收益得到保障。研究表明目前国家采取的以市场定价、价补分离、险补结合为主要特征的粮食价格支持政策总体有效可行,同时也发现相关政策存在协同性不够、补贴发放与种植面积挂钩过紧、粮农实际净利润不高等问题,进而对后疫情时代中国粮食价格支持政策提出了优化建议。

俄乌冲突对全球小麦供应链和中国市场的影响及内循环面临的挑战

俄乌冲突不仅通过小麦供应链本身,还通过能源和化肥等其他途径将小麦生产和流通领域面临的系统性风险传导至全球。中国国内小麦虽然供应充足,但仍然不可避免地受到国际市场小麦供给趋紧和涨价的冲击,最终表现为超出供需基本面的价格飙涨和波动。调整和优化中国国内小麦供给结构成为对冲外部危机的关键。当前中国小麦的低收益将阻碍产业化经营,增加弃农风险;小麦品种间的供需错配加剧“三高”矛盾;小麦口粮转饲用消费导致人均总消费量增加,并通过玉米、小麦比价引起库存随生猪养殖周期性波动;普遍使用的小麦品种自给率低估了国家保障小麦口粮消费绝对安全的能力,并加剧口粮过剩而饲料粮短缺的结构性失衡。因此,亟须多举措降低国内小麦生产成本、推进中国专用品种小麦的供给、促进小麦种植区域的种植结构向饲料粮调整、纠正小麦自给率统计口径误区,进一步提高中国小麦保障能力,为防范国际粮价飙涨和粮食短缺等危机向国内粮食市场传导建立防火墙。