Asymmetric relationship between global and national factors and domestic food prices:evidence from Turkey with novel nonlinear approaches

This study investigates the asymmetric relationship between global and national fac-tors and domestic food prices in Turkey,considering the recent rapid and continuous increase in domestic food prices.In this context,six global and three national explana-tory variables were included,and monthly data for the period from January 2004 to June 2021 were used.In addition,novel nonlinear time-series econometric approaches,such as wavelet coherence,Granger causality in quantiles,and quantile-on-quantile regression,were applied for examination at different times,frequencies,and quan-tiles.Moreover,the Toda-Yamamoto(TY)causality test and quantile regression(QR)approach were used for robustness checks.The empirical results revealed that(i)there is a significant relationship between domestic food prices and explanatory variables at different times and frequencies;(ii)a causal relationship exists in most quantiles,excluding the lowest quantile,some middle quantiles,and the highest quantile for some variables;(iii)the power of the effect of the explanatory variables on domestic food prices varies according to the quantiles;and(iv)the results were validated by the TY causality test and QR,which show that the results were robust.Overall,the empiri-cal results reveal that global and national factors have an asymmetric relationship with domestic food prices,highlighting the effects of fluctuations in global and national variables on domestic food prices.Thus,the results imply that Turkish policymakers should consider the asymmetric effects of global and national factors on domestic food prices at different times,frequencies,and quantiles.

Food Crises and Market Mechanisms

Since the 1950s, there have been several food crises with severe humanitarian, economic, political and market-related consequences. In the last decade, food crises occurred during 2007-2008 and again in 2010-2011. In the paper, the main explanations for the food crises are discussed with a focus on the 2007-2008 food crisis, and the main causes are divided into temporary/random and structural/long term and are listed. Although there are a large number of factors, the size of reserves, speculation and bioenergy seem to be significant causes of the rapidly increasing food prices which were a major cause of the food crisis. The consequences of the food crisis in 2007-2008 in particular are discussed, and some major lessons learnt are listed. Also, the present market situation is assessed, the conclusion of which is that there does not seem to be an immediate risk of another food crisis occurring in the short term. However, international cereal reserves are still vulnerable and lower compared to the level in the 1990s.

Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic on the International Food Supply Chain and Countermeasures of Shandong Province

The COVID-19 epidemic has exerted an impact on the global food supply chain,and also has contributed to the tendency of food hoarding and short supply;strong food demand has led to a rapid rise in international food prices,which has put enormous pressure on China's food import,and domestic food price showed a rise trend accordingly.In order to ensure sufficient and stable supply of China's food market,it is necessary to adhere to the food security strategy of"food self-sufficiency"for a long term.In the spring agricultural production,Shandong Province has taken effective measures to stabilize food production and achieved good results.It has not been greatly affected by the COVID-19 epidemic;however,under the continuous spread of foreign epidemics,we must adhere to the dual hard core operation of epidemic prevention and production,and explore the establishment of technical specifications for agricultural production under normal conditions for epidemic prevention and control to ensure the food security.

The impacts of biofuels on food security and supply in China

Biofuels are the current promising alternative to fossil fuels. However, the fluctuating food prices caused by oil price led to critics to biofuels. The paper surveyed biofuels production and grain production and consumption demand, and come to the conclusion that there was a little impact of corn ethanol on international food price, and there was no impact on China’s food prices. China has launched non-food biofuels development strategy to use marginal lands for growing hard crops, such as sweet sorghum, tuber crops, and switchgrass etc. to produce biofuels without any impact on food security in the future.

Climate Change and Food Price: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies, 1990-2021

Climate extreme events have threatened food security and the second Sustainable development goals (SDGs) “zero hunger” both directly via agricultural food loss and indirectly through rising food prices. We systematically searched and used a combination of results from various models, which play a crucial role in predicting the potential impact of climate change on agricultural production and food price. Therefore, we searched online databases including EMBASE, Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar, and grey literature. Then observational studies were included from January 1990 to August 2021, which reported food price proportion under climate disturbances. Results showed that 22 out of 26 studies from 615 articles, identified in the meta-analysis predicted the food price ratio would be fluctuated up to 28% before 2020, while the ratio will be marked up at 31% from 2020 to 2049 and then will scale down during 2050-2100. The compiled ratio was estimated at 26% in the long period between 2000 until 2100 under climatic weather events. Drought was a significant weather disturbance with a 32% increase in food prices. Consequently, the Food price increase will significantly affect food accessibility in lower-income countries, primarily until 2050. Policymakers should prioritize and act through redesigning food security policies according to climatic extremes in their settings.

The Response of Consumer Food Price Index(CFPI)due to the Impact of Pandemic COVID-19 on Indian Agriculture Sector

India is an agricultural country and a core source of income for the world population.The Indian economy is greatly depending on agriculture that is decrease day by day due to pandemic COVID-19.India is a major exporter of many crop foods.India,Thailand,and Vietnam are the major exports of rice if these stopped exports it reduces the economy up to 15%.A related circumstance is built up with diverse yields too like wheat,sunflower whose fare has been stationary by Kazakhstan,Serbia individually.In India,the end of April is the main source of income to farmers because they sell their rabi crops(wheat,mustard,maize,lentil,chilies,gram,tomatoes)in the market drastically decreases of CFPI may lead to the distress of Indian agricultural economy.The change over time in the price of options on wheat futures reveals increased price volatility in response to growing uncertainty about the COVID-19 impacts.

The Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Grain Price on CPI in Hubei Province

The paper analyzes the change trend of Hubei province grain price and its influence on CPI, based on data from1990-2014. The analysis results show that the grain price goes through a change of early rising and later reducing during1990-2014, and smoothly fluctuated in recent years with a downward trend; grain price and CPI fluctuations have a consistent trend, but the grain price volatility is ahead of CPI fluctuation; grain price has positive influences on the CPI; there is a longterm equilibrium relationship between them, namely,grain price is a significant cause of CPI fluctuation. Therefore, we should take various measures to stabilize grain price in order to stabilize the CPI.

Quantitative Assessment of the Impact of China's Direct Grain Subsidies on Grain Yield--Based on the Empirical Analysis of Panel Data Pertaining to 29 Provinces in the Period 2004-2007

We build the influence function empirical model of China's grain production at the present stage in view of the factors influencing direct grain subsidies,using Cobb-Douglas production function model.And we estimate the elasticity coefficient of impact of China's direct grain subsidies on grain yield,using the panel data pertaining to 29 provinces in the period 2004-2007;comparatively analyze the validity and limitation of policy factors of direct grain subsidies on China's grain yield.The results show that at the present stage,the elasticity coefficient of impact of China's direct grain subsidies on grain yield is 0.002 3,and under the existing subsidy system and level,direct grain subsidies play a positive role in increasing grain yield,but the role is limited;the elasticity coefficient of impact of the food price on grain yield is much larger than that of impact of direct grain subsidies on grain yield.Therefore,the government should strengthen and improve direct grain subsidy policies;in the mean time,pay full attention to the use of market mechanism to consolidate the basic role of the food price in promoting food security to a great extent.

Inflation Afloat？

August consumer price ndex （CPI） data has spurred heated debate on whether China is experiencing inflation. A CPI increase of 5.6% is an uncomfortable level for any major economy. In the US, the core line is set at 2.5%, and in Europe it is 2%.