An externally generated resonant magnetic perturbation can induce complex non-ideal MHD responses in their resonant surfaces.We have studied the plasma responses using Fitzpatrick's improved two-fluid model and pr...An externally generated resonant magnetic perturbation can induce complex non-ideal MHD responses in their resonant surfaces.We have studied the plasma responses using Fitzpatrick's improved two-fluid model and program LAYER.We calculated the error field penetration threshold for J-TEXT.In addition,we find that the island width increases slightly as the error field amplitude increases when the error field amplitude is below the critical penetration value.However,the island width suddenly jumps to a large value because the shielding effect of the plasma against the error field disappears after the penetration.By scanning the natural mode frequency,we find that the shielding effect of the plasma decreases as the natural mode frequency decreases.Finally,we obtain the m/n=2/1 penetration threshold scaling on density and temperature.展开更多
Numerical weather prediction(NWP)models have always presented large forecasting errors of surface wind speeds over regions with complex terrain.In this study,surface wind forecasts from an operational NWP model,the SM...Numerical weather prediction(NWP)models have always presented large forecasting errors of surface wind speeds over regions with complex terrain.In this study,surface wind forecasts from an operational NWP model,the SMS-WARR(Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System),are analyzed to quantitatively reveal the relationships between the forecasted surface wind speed errors and terrain features,with the intent of providing clues to better apply the NWP model to complex terrain regions.The terrain features are described by three parameters:the standard deviation of the model grid-scale orography,terrain height error of the model,and slope angle.The results show that the forecast bias has a unimodal distribution with a change in the standard deviation of orography.The minimum ME(the mean value of bias)is 1.2 m s^(-1) when the standard deviation is between 60 and 70 m.A positive correlation exists between bias and terrain height error,with the ME increasing by 10%−30%for every 200 m increase in terrain height error.The ME decreases by 65.6%when slope angle increases from(0.5°−1.5°)to larger than 3.5°for uphill winds but increases by 35.4%when the absolute value of slope angle increases from(0.5°−1.5°)to(2.5°−3.5°)for downhill winds.Several sensitivity experiments are carried out with a model output statistical(MOS)calibration model for surface wind speeds and ME(RMSE)has been reduced by 90%(30%)by introducing terrain parameters,demonstrating the value of this study.展开更多
To estimate the parameters of the mixed additive and multiplicative(MAM)random error model using the weighted least squares iterative algorithm that requires derivation of the complex weight array,we introduce a deriv...To estimate the parameters of the mixed additive and multiplicative(MAM)random error model using the weighted least squares iterative algorithm that requires derivation of the complex weight array,we introduce a derivative-free cat swarm optimization for parameter estimation.We embed the Powell method,which uses conjugate direction acceleration and does not need to derive the objective function,into the original cat swarm optimization to accelerate its convergence speed and search accuracy.We use the ordinary least squares,weighted least squares,original cat swarm optimization,particle swarm algorithm and improved cat swarm optimization to estimate the parameters of the straight-line fitting MAM model with lower nonlinearity and the DEM MAM model with higher nonlinearity,respectively.The experimental results show that the improved cat swarm optimization has faster convergence speed,higher search accuracy,and better stability than the original cat swarm optimization and the particle swarm algorithm.At the same time,the improved cat swarm optimization can obtain results consistent with the weighted least squares method based on the objective function only while avoiding multiple complex weight array derivations.The method in this paper provides a new idea for theoretical research on parameter estimation of MAM error models.展开更多
Assembly geometric error as a part of the machine tool system errors has a significant influence on the machining accuracy of the multi-axis machine tool.And it cannot be eliminated due to the error propagation of com...Assembly geometric error as a part of the machine tool system errors has a significant influence on the machining accuracy of the multi-axis machine tool.And it cannot be eliminated due to the error propagation of components in the assembly process,which is generally non-uniformly distributed in the whole working space.A comprehensive expression model for assembly geometric error is greatly helpful for machining quality control of machine tools to meet the demand for machining accuracy in practice.However,the expression ranges based on the standard quasistatic expression model for assembly geometric errors are far less than those needed in the whole working space of the multi-axis machine tool.To address this issue,a modeling methodology based on the Jacobian-Torsor model is proposed to describe the spatially distributed geometric errors.Firstly,an improved kinematic Jacobian-Torsor model is developed to describe the relative movements such as translation and rotation motion between assembly bodies,respectively.Furthermore,based on the proposed kinematic Jacobian-Torsor model,a spatial expression of geometric errors for the multi-axis machine tool is given.And simulation and experimental verification are taken with the investigation of the spatial distribution of geometric errors on five four-axis machine tools.The results validate the effectiveness of the proposed kinematic Jacobian-Torsor model in dealing with the spatial expression of assembly geometric errors.展开更多
Spatial linear features are often represented as a series of line segments joined by measured endpoints in surveying and geographic information science.There are not only the measuring errors of the endpoints but also...Spatial linear features are often represented as a series of line segments joined by measured endpoints in surveying and geographic information science.There are not only the measuring errors of the endpoints but also the modeling errors between the line segments and the actual geographical features.This paper presents a Brownian bridge error model for line segments combining both the modeling and measuring errors.First,the Brownian bridge is used to establish the position distribution of the actual geographic feature represented by the line segment.Second,an error propagation model with the constraints of the measuring error distribution of the endpoints is proposed.Third,a comprehensive error band of the line segment is constructed,wherein both the modeling and measuring errors are contained.The proposed error model can be used to evaluate line segments’overall accuracy and trustability influenced by modeling and measuring errors,and provides a comprehensive quality indicator for the geospatial data.展开更多
Kinematic calibration is a reliable way to improve the accuracy of parallel manipulators, while the error model dramatically afects the accuracy, reliability, and stability of identifcation results. In this paper, a c...Kinematic calibration is a reliable way to improve the accuracy of parallel manipulators, while the error model dramatically afects the accuracy, reliability, and stability of identifcation results. In this paper, a comparison study on kinematic calibration for a 3-DOF parallel manipulator with three error models is presented to investigate the relative merits of diferent error modeling methods. The study takes into consideration the inverse-kinematic error model, which ignores all passive joint errors, the geometric-constraint error model, which is derived by special geometric constraints of the studied RPR-equivalent parallel manipulator, and the complete-minimal error model, which meets the complete, minimal, and continuous criteria. This comparison focuses on aspects such as modeling complexity, identifcation accuracy, the impact of noise uncertainty, and parameter identifability. To facilitate a more intuitive comparison, simulations are conducted to draw conclusions in certain aspects, including accuracy, the infuence of the S joint, identifcation with noises, and sensitivity indices. The simulations indicate that the complete-minimal error model exhibits the lowest residual values, and all error models demonstrate stability considering noises. Hereafter, an experiment is conducted on a prototype using a laser tracker, providing further insights into the diferences among the three error models. The results show that the residual errors of this machine tool are signifcantly improved according to the identifed parameters, and the complete-minimal error model can approach the measurements by nearly 90% compared to the inverse-kinematic error model. The fndings pertaining to the model process, complexity, and limitations are also instructive for other parallel manipulators.展开更多
In the existing landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP)models,the influences of random errors in landslide conditioning factors on LSP are not considered,instead the original conditioning factors are directly taken a...In the existing landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP)models,the influences of random errors in landslide conditioning factors on LSP are not considered,instead the original conditioning factors are directly taken as the model inputs,which brings uncertainties to LSP results.This study aims to reveal the influence rules of the different proportional random errors in conditioning factors on the LSP un-certainties,and further explore a method which can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning factors.The original conditioning factors are firstly used to construct original factors-based LSP models,and then different random errors of 5%,10%,15% and 20%are added to these original factors for con-structing relevant errors-based LSP models.Secondly,low-pass filter-based LSP models are constructed by eliminating the random errors using low-pass filter method.Thirdly,the Ruijin County of China with 370 landslides and 16 conditioning factors are used as study case.Three typical machine learning models,i.e.multilayer perceptron(MLP),support vector machine(SVM)and random forest(RF),are selected as LSP models.Finally,the LSP uncertainties are discussed and results show that:(1)The low-pass filter can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning factors to decrease the LSP uncertainties.(2)With the proportions of random errors increasing from 5%to 20%,the LSP uncertainty increases continuously.(3)The original factors-based models are feasible for LSP in the absence of more accurate conditioning factors.(4)The influence degrees of two uncertainty issues,machine learning models and different proportions of random errors,on the LSP modeling are large and basically the same.(5)The Shapley values effectively explain the internal mechanism of machine learning model predicting landslide sus-ceptibility.In conclusion,greater proportion of random errors in conditioning factors results in higher LSP uncertainty,and low-pass filter can effectively reduce these random errors.展开更多
Effects of performing an R-factor analysis of observed variables based on population models comprising R- and Q-factors were investigated. Although R-factor analysis of data based on a population model comprising R- a...Effects of performing an R-factor analysis of observed variables based on population models comprising R- and Q-factors were investigated. Although R-factor analysis of data based on a population model comprising R- and Q-factors is possible, this may lead to model error. Accordingly, loading estimates resulting from R-factor analysis of sample data drawn from a population based on a combination of R- and Q-factors will be biased. It was shown in a simulation study that a large amount of Q-factor variance induces an increase in the variation of R-factor loading estimates beyond the chance level. Tests of the multivariate kurtosis of observed variables are proposed as an indicator of possible Q-factor variance in observed variables as a prerequisite for R-factor analysis.展开更多
Within a theoretical ENSO model, the authors investigated whether or not the errors superimposed on model parameters could cause a significant "spring predictability barrier" (SPB) for El Nio events. First, sensit...Within a theoretical ENSO model, the authors investigated whether or not the errors superimposed on model parameters could cause a significant "spring predictability barrier" (SPB) for El Nio events. First, sensitivity experiments were respectively performed to the air-sea coupling parameter, α and the thermocline effect coefficient μ. The results showed that the uncertainties superimposed on each of the two parameters did not exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution; furthermore, the uncertainties caused a very small prediction error and consequently failed to yield a significant SPB. Subsequently, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach was used to study the effect of the optimal mode (CNOP-P) of the uncertainties of the two parameters on the SPB and to demonstrate that the CNOP-P errors neither presented a unified season-dependent evolution for different El Nio events nor caused a large prediction error, and therefore did not cause a significant SPB. The parameter errors played only a trivial role in yielding a significant SPB. To further validate this conclusion, the authors investigated the effect of the optimal combined mode (i.e. CNOP error) of initial and model errors on SPB. The results illustrated that the CNOP errors tended to have a significant season-dependent evolution, with the largest error growth rate in the spring, and yielded a large prediction error, inducing a significant SPB. The inference, therefore, is that initial errors, rather than model parameter errors, may be the dominant source of uncertainties that cause a significant SPB for El Nio events. These results indicate that the ability to forecast ENSO could be greatly increased by improving the initialization of the forecast model.展开更多
Parallel robots with SCARA(selective compliance assembly robot arm) motions are utilized widely in the field of high speed pick-and-place manipulation. Error modeling for these robots generally simplifies the parall...Parallel robots with SCARA(selective compliance assembly robot arm) motions are utilized widely in the field of high speed pick-and-place manipulation. Error modeling for these robots generally simplifies the parallelogram structures included by the robots as a link. As the established error model fails to reflect the error feature of the parallelogram structures, the effect of accuracy design and kinematic calibration based on the error model come to be undermined. An error modeling methodology is proposed to establish an error model of parallel robots with parallelogram structures. The error model can embody the geometric errors of all joints, including the joints of parallelogram structures. Thus it can contain more exhaustively the factors that reduce the accuracy of the robot. Based on the error model and some sensitivity indices defined in the sense of statistics, sensitivity analysis is carried out. Accordingly, some atlases are depicted to express each geometric error’s influence on the moving platform’s pose errors. From these atlases, the geometric errors that have greater impact on the accuracy of the moving platform are identified, and some sensitive areas where the pose errors of the moving platform are extremely sensitive to the geometric errors are also figured out. By taking into account the error factors which are generally neglected in all existing modeling methods, the proposed modeling method can thoroughly disclose the process of error transmission and enhance the efficacy of accuracy design and calibration.展开更多
Because the real input acceleration cannot be obtained during the error model identification of inertial navigation platform, both the input and output data contain noises. In this case, the conventional regression mo...Because the real input acceleration cannot be obtained during the error model identification of inertial navigation platform, both the input and output data contain noises. In this case, the conventional regression model and the least squares (LS) method will result in bias. Based on the models of inertial navigation platform error and observation error, the errors-in-variables (EV) model and the total least squares (TLS) method axe proposed to identify the error model of the inertial navigation platform. The estimation precision is improved and the result is better than the conventional regression model based LS method. The simulation results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
The initial errors constitute one of the main limiting factors in the ability to predict the E1 Nino-Southem Oscillation (ENSO) in ocean-atmosphere coupled models. The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (C...The initial errors constitute one of the main limiting factors in the ability to predict the E1 Nino-Southem Oscillation (ENSO) in ocean-atmosphere coupled models. The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach was em- ployed to study the largest initial error growth in the E1 Nino predictions of an intermediate coupled model (ICM). The optimal initial errors (as represented by CNOPs) in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and sea level anomalies (SLAs) were obtained with seasonal variation. The CNOP-induced perturbations, which tend to evolve into the La Nifia mode, were found to have the same dynamics as ENSO itself. This indicates that, if CNOP-type errors are present in the initial conditions used to make a prediction of E1 Nino, the E1 Nino event tends to be under-predicted. In particular, compared with other seasonal CNOPs, the CNOPs in winter can induce the largest error growth, which gives rise to an ENSO amplitude that is hardly ever predicted accurately. Additionally, it was found that the CNOP-induced perturbations exhibit a strong spring predictability barrier (SPB) phenomenon for ENSO prediction. These results offer a way to enhance ICM prediction skill and, particularly, weaken the SPB phenomenon by filtering the CNOP-type errors in the initial state. The characteristic distributions of the CNOPs derived from the ICM also provide useful information for targeted observations through data assimilation. Given the fact that the derived CNOPs are season-dependent, it is suggested that seasonally varying targeted observations should be implemented to accurately predict ENSO events.展开更多
Aiming at the problem of low machining accu- racy and uncontrollable thermal errors of NC machine tools, spindle thermal error measurement, modeling and compensation of a two turntable five-axis machine tool are resea...Aiming at the problem of low machining accu- racy and uncontrollable thermal errors of NC machine tools, spindle thermal error measurement, modeling and compensation of a two turntable five-axis machine tool are researched. Measurement experiment of heat sources and thermal errors are carried out, and GRA(grey relational analysis) method is introduced into the selection of tem- perature variables used for thermal error modeling. In order to analyze the influence of different heat sources on spindle thermal errors, an ANN (artificial neural network) model is presented, and ABC(artificial bee colony) algorithm is introduced to train the link weights of ANN, a new ABC- NN(Artificial bee colony-based neural network) modeling method is proposed and used in the prediction of spindle thermal errors. In order to test the prediction performance of ABC-NN model, an experiment system is developed, the prediction results of LSR (least squares regression), ANN and ABC-NN are compared with the measurement results of spindle thermal errors. Experiment results show that the prediction accuracy of ABC-NN model is higher than LSR and ANN, and the residual error is smaller than 3 pm, the new modeling method is feasible. The proposed research provides instruction to compensate thermal errors and improve machining accuracy of NC machine tools.展开更多
This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone(TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES). In Part I, it is shown that the model...This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone(TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES). In Part I, it is shown that the model error of GRAPES may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, a further examination of the model error is the focus of Part II.Considering model error as a type of forcing, the model error can be represented by the combination of good forecasts and bad forecasts. Results show that there are systematic model errors. The model error of the geopotential height component has periodic features, with a period of 24 h and a global pattern of wavenumber 2 from west to east located between 60?S and 60?N. This periodic model error presents similar features as the atmospheric semidiurnal tide, which reflect signals from tropical diabatic heating, indicating that the parameter errors related to the tropical diabatic heating may be the source of the periodic model error. The above model errors are subtracted from the forecast equation and a series of new forecasts are made. The average forecasting capability using the rectified model is improved compared to simply improving the initial conditions of the original GRAPES model. This confirms the strong impact of the periodic model error on landfalling TC track forecasts. Besides, if the model error used to rectify the model is obtained from an examination of additional TCs, the forecasting capabilities of the corresponding rectified model will be improved.展开更多
In this study, the relationship between the limit of predictability and initial error was investigated using two simple chaotic systems: the Lorenz model, which possesses a single characteristic time scale, and the c...In this study, the relationship between the limit of predictability and initial error was investigated using two simple chaotic systems: the Lorenz model, which possesses a single characteristic time scale, and the coupled Lorenz model, which possesses two different characteristic time scales. The limit of predictability is defined here as the time at which the error reaches 95% of its saturation level; nonlinear behaviors of the error growth are therefore involved in the definition of the limit of predictability. Our results show that the logarithmic function performs well in describing the relationship between the limit of predictability and initial error in both models, although the coefficients in the logarithmic function were not constant across the examined range of initial errors. Compared with the Lorenz model, in the coupled Lorenz model in which the slow dynamics and the fast dynamics interact with each other--there is a more complex relationship between the limit of predictability and initial error. The limit of predictability of the Lorenz model is unbounded as the initial error becomes infinitesimally small; therefore, the limit of predictability of the Lorenz model may be extended by reducing the amplitude of the initial error. In contrast, if there exists a fixed initial error in the fast dynamics of the coupled Lorenz model, the slow dynamics has an intrinsic finite limit of predictability that cannot be extended by reducing the amplitude of the initial error in the slow dynamics, and vice versa. The findings reported here reveal the possible existence of an intrinsic finite limit of predictability in a coupled system that possesses many scales of time or motion.展开更多
Joint clearances in antenna pointing mechanisms lead to uncertainty in function deviation. Current studies mainly focus on radial clearance of revolute joints, while axial clearance has rarely been taken into consider...Joint clearances in antenna pointing mechanisms lead to uncertainty in function deviation. Current studies mainly focus on radial clearance of revolute joints, while axial clearance has rarely been taken into consideration. In fact, own?ing to errors from machining and assembly, thermal deformation and so forth, practically, axial clearance is inevitable in the joint. In this study, an error equivalent model(EEM) of revolute joints is proposed with considering both radial and axial clearances. Compared to the planar model of revolute joints only considering radial clearance, the journal motion inside the bearing is more abundant and matches the reality better in the EEM. The model is also extended for analyzing the error distribution of a spatial dual?axis("X–Y" type) antenna pointing mechanism of Spot?beam antennas which especially demand a high pointing accuracy. Three case studies are performed which illustrates the internal relation between radial clearance and axial clearance. It is found that when the axial clearance is big enough, the physical journal can freely realize both translational motion and rotational motion. While if the axial clearance is limited, the motion of the physical journal will be restricted. Analysis results indicate that the consideration of both radial and axial clearances in the revolute joint describes the journal motion inside the bearing more precise. To further validate the proposed model, a model of the EEM is designed and fabricated. Some suggestions on the design of revolute joints are also provided.展开更多
Model error is one of the key factors restricting the accuracy of numerical weather prediction (NWP). Considering the continuous evolution of the atmosphere, the observed data (ignoring the measurement error) can ...Model error is one of the key factors restricting the accuracy of numerical weather prediction (NWP). Considering the continuous evolution of the atmosphere, the observed data (ignoring the measurement error) can be viewed as a series of solutions of an accurate model governing the actual atmosphere. Model error is represented as an unknown term in the accurate model, thus NWP can be considered as an inverse problem to uncover the unknown error term. The inverse problem models can absorb long periods of observed data to generate model error correction procedures. They thus resolve the deficiency and faultiness of the NWP schemes employing only the initial-time data. In this study we construct two inverse problem models to estimate and extrapolate the time-varying and spatial-varying model errors in both the historical and forecast periods by using recent observations and analogue phenomena of the atmosphere. Numerical experiment on Burgers' equation has illustrated the substantial forecast improvement using inverse problem algorithms. The proposed inverse problem methods of suppressing NWP errors will be useful in future high accuracy applications of NWP.展开更多
Errors inevitably exist in numerical weather prediction (NWP) due to imperfect numeric and physical parameterizations. To eliminate these errors, by considering NWP as an inverse problem, an unknown term in the pred...Errors inevitably exist in numerical weather prediction (NWP) due to imperfect numeric and physical parameterizations. To eliminate these errors, by considering NWP as an inverse problem, an unknown term in the prediction equations can be estimated inversely by using the past data, which are presumed to represent the imperfection of the NWP model (model error, denoted as ME). In this first paper of a two-part series, an iteration method for obtaining the MEs in past intervals is presented, and the results from testing its convergence in idealized experiments are reported. Moreover, two batches of iteration tests were applied in the global forecast system of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES-GFS) for July-August 2009 and January-February 2010. The datasets associated with the initial conditions and sea surface temperature (SST) were both based on NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) FNL (final) data. The results showed that 6th h forecast errors were reduced to 10% of their original value after a 20-step iteration. Then, off-line forecast error corrections were estimated linearly based on the 2-month mean MEs and compared with forecast errors. The estimated error corrections agreed well with the forecast errors, but the linear growth rate of the estimation was steeper than the forecast error. The advantage of this iteration method is that the MEs can provide the foundation for online correction. A larger proportion of the forecast errors can be expected to be canceled out by properly introducing the model error correction into GRAPES-GFS.展开更多
The presence of array imperfection and mutual coupling in sensor arrays poses several challenges for development of effective algorithms for the direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation problem in array processing. A c...The presence of array imperfection and mutual coupling in sensor arrays poses several challenges for development of effective algorithms for the direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation problem in array processing. A correlation domain wideband DOA estimation algorithm without array calibration is proposed, to deal with these array model errors, using the arbitrary antenna array of omnidirectional elements. By using the matrix operators that have the memory and oblivion characteristics, this algorithm can separate the incident signals effectively. Compared with other typical wideband DOA estimation algorithms based on the subspace theory, this algorithm can get robust DOA estimation with regard to position error, gain-phase error, and mutual coupling, by utilizing a relaxation technique based on signal separation. The signal separation category and the robustness of this algorithm to the array model errors are analyzed and proved. The validity and robustness of this algorithm, in the presence of array model errors, are confirmed by theoretical analysis and simulation results.展开更多
Multistation machining process is widely applied in contemporary manufacturing environment. Modeling of variation propagation in multistation machining process is one of the most important research scenarios. Due to t...Multistation machining process is widely applied in contemporary manufacturing environment. Modeling of variation propagation in multistation machining process is one of the most important research scenarios. Due to the existence of multiple variation streams, it is challenging to model and analyze variation propagation in a multi-station system. Current approaches to error modeling for multistation machining process are not explicit enough for error control and ensuring final product quality. In this paper, a mathematic model to depict the part dimensional variation of the complex multistation manufacturing process is formulated. A linear state space dimensional error propagation equation is established through kinematics analysis of the influence of locating parameter variations and locating datum variations on dimensional errors, so the dimensional error accumulation and transformation within the multistation process are quantitatively described. A systematic procedure to build the model is presented, which enhances the way to determine the variation sources in complex machining systems. A simple two-dimensional example is used to illustrate the proposed procedures. Finally, an industrial case of multistation machining part in a manufacturing shop is given to testify the validation and practicability of the method. The proposed analytical model is essential to quality control and improvement for multistation systems in machining quality forecasting and design optimization.展开更多
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.51821005)。
文摘An externally generated resonant magnetic perturbation can induce complex non-ideal MHD responses in their resonant surfaces.We have studied the plasma responses using Fitzpatrick's improved two-fluid model and program LAYER.We calculated the error field penetration threshold for J-TEXT.In addition,we find that the island width increases slightly as the error field amplitude increases when the error field amplitude is below the critical penetration value.However,the island width suddenly jumps to a large value because the shielding effect of the plasma against the error field disappears after the penetration.By scanning the natural mode frequency,we find that the shielding effect of the plasma decreases as the natural mode frequency decreases.Finally,we obtain the m/n=2/1 penetration threshold scaling on density and temperature.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.U2142206).
文摘Numerical weather prediction(NWP)models have always presented large forecasting errors of surface wind speeds over regions with complex terrain.In this study,surface wind forecasts from an operational NWP model,the SMS-WARR(Shanghai Meteorological Service-WRF ADAS Rapid Refresh System),are analyzed to quantitatively reveal the relationships between the forecasted surface wind speed errors and terrain features,with the intent of providing clues to better apply the NWP model to complex terrain regions.The terrain features are described by three parameters:the standard deviation of the model grid-scale orography,terrain height error of the model,and slope angle.The results show that the forecast bias has a unimodal distribution with a change in the standard deviation of orography.The minimum ME(the mean value of bias)is 1.2 m s^(-1) when the standard deviation is between 60 and 70 m.A positive correlation exists between bias and terrain height error,with the ME increasing by 10%−30%for every 200 m increase in terrain height error.The ME decreases by 65.6%when slope angle increases from(0.5°−1.5°)to larger than 3.5°for uphill winds but increases by 35.4%when the absolute value of slope angle increases from(0.5°−1.5°)to(2.5°−3.5°)for downhill winds.Several sensitivity experiments are carried out with a model output statistical(MOS)calibration model for surface wind speeds and ME(RMSE)has been reduced by 90%(30%)by introducing terrain parameters,demonstrating the value of this study.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42174011 and No.41874001).
文摘To estimate the parameters of the mixed additive and multiplicative(MAM)random error model using the weighted least squares iterative algorithm that requires derivation of the complex weight array,we introduce a derivative-free cat swarm optimization for parameter estimation.We embed the Powell method,which uses conjugate direction acceleration and does not need to derive the objective function,into the original cat swarm optimization to accelerate its convergence speed and search accuracy.We use the ordinary least squares,weighted least squares,original cat swarm optimization,particle swarm algorithm and improved cat swarm optimization to estimate the parameters of the straight-line fitting MAM model with lower nonlinearity and the DEM MAM model with higher nonlinearity,respectively.The experimental results show that the improved cat swarm optimization has faster convergence speed,higher search accuracy,and better stability than the original cat swarm optimization and the particle swarm algorithm.At the same time,the improved cat swarm optimization can obtain results consistent with the weighted least squares method based on the objective function only while avoiding multiple complex weight array derivations.The method in this paper provides a new idea for theoretical research on parameter estimation of MAM error models.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.51975369)National Key Science and Technology Research Program of China (Grant No.2019ZX04027001)。
文摘Assembly geometric error as a part of the machine tool system errors has a significant influence on the machining accuracy of the multi-axis machine tool.And it cannot be eliminated due to the error propagation of components in the assembly process,which is generally non-uniformly distributed in the whole working space.A comprehensive expression model for assembly geometric error is greatly helpful for machining quality control of machine tools to meet the demand for machining accuracy in practice.However,the expression ranges based on the standard quasistatic expression model for assembly geometric errors are far less than those needed in the whole working space of the multi-axis machine tool.To address this issue,a modeling methodology based on the Jacobian-Torsor model is proposed to describe the spatially distributed geometric errors.Firstly,an improved kinematic Jacobian-Torsor model is developed to describe the relative movements such as translation and rotation motion between assembly bodies,respectively.Furthermore,based on the proposed kinematic Jacobian-Torsor model,a spatial expression of geometric errors for the multi-axis machine tool is given.And simulation and experimental verification are taken with the investigation of the spatial distribution of geometric errors on five four-axis machine tools.The results validate the effectiveness of the proposed kinematic Jacobian-Torsor model in dealing with the spatial expression of assembly geometric errors.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42071372,42221002)。
文摘Spatial linear features are often represented as a series of line segments joined by measured endpoints in surveying and geographic information science.There are not only the measuring errors of the endpoints but also the modeling errors between the line segments and the actual geographical features.This paper presents a Brownian bridge error model for line segments combining both the modeling and measuring errors.First,the Brownian bridge is used to establish the position distribution of the actual geographic feature represented by the line segment.Second,an error propagation model with the constraints of the measuring error distribution of the endpoints is proposed.Third,a comprehensive error band of the line segment is constructed,wherein both the modeling and measuring errors are contained.The proposed error model can be used to evaluate line segments’overall accuracy and trustability influenced by modeling and measuring errors,and provides a comprehensive quality indicator for the geospatial data.
基金Supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2019YFA0709001)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52022056,51875334,52205031 and 52205034)National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2017YFE0111300).
文摘Kinematic calibration is a reliable way to improve the accuracy of parallel manipulators, while the error model dramatically afects the accuracy, reliability, and stability of identifcation results. In this paper, a comparison study on kinematic calibration for a 3-DOF parallel manipulator with three error models is presented to investigate the relative merits of diferent error modeling methods. The study takes into consideration the inverse-kinematic error model, which ignores all passive joint errors, the geometric-constraint error model, which is derived by special geometric constraints of the studied RPR-equivalent parallel manipulator, and the complete-minimal error model, which meets the complete, minimal, and continuous criteria. This comparison focuses on aspects such as modeling complexity, identifcation accuracy, the impact of noise uncertainty, and parameter identifability. To facilitate a more intuitive comparison, simulations are conducted to draw conclusions in certain aspects, including accuracy, the infuence of the S joint, identifcation with noises, and sensitivity indices. The simulations indicate that the complete-minimal error model exhibits the lowest residual values, and all error models demonstrate stability considering noises. Hereafter, an experiment is conducted on a prototype using a laser tracker, providing further insights into the diferences among the three error models. The results show that the residual errors of this machine tool are signifcantly improved according to the identifed parameters, and the complete-minimal error model can approach the measurements by nearly 90% compared to the inverse-kinematic error model. The fndings pertaining to the model process, complexity, and limitations are also instructive for other parallel manipulators.
基金This work is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42377164 and 52079062)the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars of China(Grant No.52222905).
文摘In the existing landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP)models,the influences of random errors in landslide conditioning factors on LSP are not considered,instead the original conditioning factors are directly taken as the model inputs,which brings uncertainties to LSP results.This study aims to reveal the influence rules of the different proportional random errors in conditioning factors on the LSP un-certainties,and further explore a method which can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning factors.The original conditioning factors are firstly used to construct original factors-based LSP models,and then different random errors of 5%,10%,15% and 20%are added to these original factors for con-structing relevant errors-based LSP models.Secondly,low-pass filter-based LSP models are constructed by eliminating the random errors using low-pass filter method.Thirdly,the Ruijin County of China with 370 landslides and 16 conditioning factors are used as study case.Three typical machine learning models,i.e.multilayer perceptron(MLP),support vector machine(SVM)and random forest(RF),are selected as LSP models.Finally,the LSP uncertainties are discussed and results show that:(1)The low-pass filter can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning factors to decrease the LSP uncertainties.(2)With the proportions of random errors increasing from 5%to 20%,the LSP uncertainty increases continuously.(3)The original factors-based models are feasible for LSP in the absence of more accurate conditioning factors.(4)The influence degrees of two uncertainty issues,machine learning models and different proportions of random errors,on the LSP modeling are large and basically the same.(5)The Shapley values effectively explain the internal mechanism of machine learning model predicting landslide sus-ceptibility.In conclusion,greater proportion of random errors in conditioning factors results in higher LSP uncertainty,and low-pass filter can effectively reduce these random errors.
文摘Effects of performing an R-factor analysis of observed variables based on population models comprising R- and Q-factors were investigated. Although R-factor analysis of data based on a population model comprising R- and Q-factors is possible, this may lead to model error. Accordingly, loading estimates resulting from R-factor analysis of sample data drawn from a population based on a combination of R- and Q-factors will be biased. It was shown in a simulation study that a large amount of Q-factor variance induces an increase in the variation of R-factor loading estimates beyond the chance level. Tests of the multivariate kurtosis of observed variables are proposed as an indicator of possible Q-factor variance in observed variables as a prerequisite for R-factor analysis.
基金sponsored by the Knowl-edge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-QN203)the National Basic Re-search Program of China (No. 2007CB411800)the GYHY200906009 of the China Meteorological Administra-tion
文摘Within a theoretical ENSO model, the authors investigated whether or not the errors superimposed on model parameters could cause a significant "spring predictability barrier" (SPB) for El Nio events. First, sensitivity experiments were respectively performed to the air-sea coupling parameter, α and the thermocline effect coefficient μ. The results showed that the uncertainties superimposed on each of the two parameters did not exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution; furthermore, the uncertainties caused a very small prediction error and consequently failed to yield a significant SPB. Subsequently, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach was used to study the effect of the optimal mode (CNOP-P) of the uncertainties of the two parameters on the SPB and to demonstrate that the CNOP-P errors neither presented a unified season-dependent evolution for different El Nio events nor caused a large prediction error, and therefore did not cause a significant SPB. The parameter errors played only a trivial role in yielding a significant SPB. To further validate this conclusion, the authors investigated the effect of the optimal combined mode (i.e. CNOP error) of initial and model errors on SPB. The results illustrated that the CNOP errors tended to have a significant season-dependent evolution, with the largest error growth rate in the spring, and yielded a large prediction error, inducing a significant SPB. The inference, therefore, is that initial errors, rather than model parameter errors, may be the dominant source of uncertainties that cause a significant SPB for El Nio events. These results indicate that the ability to forecast ENSO could be greatly increased by improving the initialization of the forecast model.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51305222)National Key Scientific and Technological Program of China(Grant No.2013ZX04001-021)
文摘Parallel robots with SCARA(selective compliance assembly robot arm) motions are utilized widely in the field of high speed pick-and-place manipulation. Error modeling for these robots generally simplifies the parallelogram structures included by the robots as a link. As the established error model fails to reflect the error feature of the parallelogram structures, the effect of accuracy design and kinematic calibration based on the error model come to be undermined. An error modeling methodology is proposed to establish an error model of parallel robots with parallelogram structures. The error model can embody the geometric errors of all joints, including the joints of parallelogram structures. Thus it can contain more exhaustively the factors that reduce the accuracy of the robot. Based on the error model and some sensitivity indices defined in the sense of statistics, sensitivity analysis is carried out. Accordingly, some atlases are depicted to express each geometric error’s influence on the moving platform’s pose errors. From these atlases, the geometric errors that have greater impact on the accuracy of the moving platform are identified, and some sensitive areas where the pose errors of the moving platform are extremely sensitive to the geometric errors are also figured out. By taking into account the error factors which are generally neglected in all existing modeling methods, the proposed modeling method can thoroughly disclose the process of error transmission and enhance the efficacy of accuracy design and calibration.
基金supported by the National Security Major Basic Research Project of China (973-61334).
文摘Because the real input acceleration cannot be obtained during the error model identification of inertial navigation platform, both the input and output data contain noises. In this case, the conventional regression model and the least squares (LS) method will result in bias. Based on the models of inertial navigation platform error and observation error, the errors-in-variables (EV) model and the total least squares (TLS) method axe proposed to identify the error model of the inertial navigation platform. The estimation precision is improved and the result is better than the conventional regression model based LS method. The simulation results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NFSC Grant Nos. 41690122, 41690120, 41490644, 41490640 and 41475101)+5 种基金the Ao Shan Talents Program supported by Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Grant No. 2015ASTP)a Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Projectthe Western Pacific Ocean System (Grant Nos. XDA11010105, XDA11020306)the NSFC–Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers (Grant No. U1406401)the National Natural Science Foundation of China Innovative Group Grant (Grant No. 41421005)the Taishan Scholarship and Qingdao Innovative Program (Grant No. 2014GJJS0101)
文摘The initial errors constitute one of the main limiting factors in the ability to predict the E1 Nino-Southem Oscillation (ENSO) in ocean-atmosphere coupled models. The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach was em- ployed to study the largest initial error growth in the E1 Nino predictions of an intermediate coupled model (ICM). The optimal initial errors (as represented by CNOPs) in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and sea level anomalies (SLAs) were obtained with seasonal variation. The CNOP-induced perturbations, which tend to evolve into the La Nifia mode, were found to have the same dynamics as ENSO itself. This indicates that, if CNOP-type errors are present in the initial conditions used to make a prediction of E1 Nino, the E1 Nino event tends to be under-predicted. In particular, compared with other seasonal CNOPs, the CNOPs in winter can induce the largest error growth, which gives rise to an ENSO amplitude that is hardly ever predicted accurately. Additionally, it was found that the CNOP-induced perturbations exhibit a strong spring predictability barrier (SPB) phenomenon for ENSO prediction. These results offer a way to enhance ICM prediction skill and, particularly, weaken the SPB phenomenon by filtering the CNOP-type errors in the initial state. The characteristic distributions of the CNOPs derived from the ICM also provide useful information for targeted observations through data assimilation. Given the fact that the derived CNOPs are season-dependent, it is suggested that seasonally varying targeted observations should be implemented to accurately predict ENSO events.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51305244)Shandong Provincal Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.ZR2013EEL015)
文摘Aiming at the problem of low machining accu- racy and uncontrollable thermal errors of NC machine tools, spindle thermal error measurement, modeling and compensation of a two turntable five-axis machine tool are researched. Measurement experiment of heat sources and thermal errors are carried out, and GRA(grey relational analysis) method is introduced into the selection of tem- perature variables used for thermal error modeling. In order to analyze the influence of different heat sources on spindle thermal errors, an ANN (artificial neural network) model is presented, and ABC(artificial bee colony) algorithm is introduced to train the link weights of ANN, a new ABC- NN(Artificial bee colony-based neural network) modeling method is proposed and used in the prediction of spindle thermal errors. In order to test the prediction performance of ABC-NN model, an experiment system is developed, the prediction results of LSR (least squares regression), ANN and ABC-NN are compared with the measurement results of spindle thermal errors. Experiment results show that the prediction accuracy of ABC-NN model is higher than LSR and ANN, and the residual error is smaller than 3 pm, the new modeling method is feasible. The proposed research provides instruction to compensate thermal errors and improve machining accuracy of NC machine tools.
基金jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant. No. 2017YFC1501601)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant. No. 41475100)+1 种基金the National Science and Technology Support Program (Grant. No. 2012BAC22B03)the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone(TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System(GRAPES). In Part I, it is shown that the model error of GRAPES may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, a further examination of the model error is the focus of Part II.Considering model error as a type of forcing, the model error can be represented by the combination of good forecasts and bad forecasts. Results show that there are systematic model errors. The model error of the geopotential height component has periodic features, with a period of 24 h and a global pattern of wavenumber 2 from west to east located between 60?S and 60?N. This periodic model error presents similar features as the atmospheric semidiurnal tide, which reflect signals from tropical diabatic heating, indicating that the parameter errors related to the tropical diabatic heating may be the source of the periodic model error. The above model errors are subtracted from the forecast equation and a series of new forecasts are made. The average forecasting capability using the rectified model is improved compared to simply improving the initial conditions of the original GRAPES model. This confirms the strong impact of the periodic model error on landfalling TC track forecasts. Besides, if the model error used to rectify the model is obtained from an examination of additional TCs, the forecasting capabilities of the corresponding rectified model will be improved.
基金sprovided jointly by the 973 Program (Grant No.2010CB950400)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40805022 and 40821092)
文摘In this study, the relationship between the limit of predictability and initial error was investigated using two simple chaotic systems: the Lorenz model, which possesses a single characteristic time scale, and the coupled Lorenz model, which possesses two different characteristic time scales. The limit of predictability is defined here as the time at which the error reaches 95% of its saturation level; nonlinear behaviors of the error growth are therefore involved in the definition of the limit of predictability. Our results show that the logarithmic function performs well in describing the relationship between the limit of predictability and initial error in both models, although the coefficients in the logarithmic function were not constant across the examined range of initial errors. Compared with the Lorenz model, in the coupled Lorenz model in which the slow dynamics and the fast dynamics interact with each other--there is a more complex relationship between the limit of predictability and initial error. The limit of predictability of the Lorenz model is unbounded as the initial error becomes infinitesimally small; therefore, the limit of predictability of the Lorenz model may be extended by reducing the amplitude of the initial error. In contrast, if there exists a fixed initial error in the fast dynamics of the coupled Lorenz model, the slow dynamics has an intrinsic finite limit of predictability that cannot be extended by reducing the amplitude of the initial error in the slow dynamics, and vice versa. The findings reported here reveal the possible existence of an intrinsic finite limit of predictability in a coupled system that possesses many scales of time or motion.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51635002(Key Program),51605011,51275015)
文摘Joint clearances in antenna pointing mechanisms lead to uncertainty in function deviation. Current studies mainly focus on radial clearance of revolute joints, while axial clearance has rarely been taken into consideration. In fact, own?ing to errors from machining and assembly, thermal deformation and so forth, practically, axial clearance is inevitable in the joint. In this study, an error equivalent model(EEM) of revolute joints is proposed with considering both radial and axial clearances. Compared to the planar model of revolute joints only considering radial clearance, the journal motion inside the bearing is more abundant and matches the reality better in the EEM. The model is also extended for analyzing the error distribution of a spatial dual?axis("X–Y" type) antenna pointing mechanism of Spot?beam antennas which especially demand a high pointing accuracy. Three case studies are performed which illustrates the internal relation between radial clearance and axial clearance. It is found that when the axial clearance is big enough, the physical journal can freely realize both translational motion and rotational motion. While if the axial clearance is limited, the motion of the physical journal will be restricted. Analysis results indicate that the consideration of both radial and axial clearances in the revolute joint describes the journal motion inside the bearing more precise. To further validate the proposed model, a model of the EEM is designed and fabricated. Some suggestions on the design of revolute joints are also provided.
基金Project supported by the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest(Grant No.GYHY201206009)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China(Grant Nos.lzujbky-2012-13 and lzujbky-2013-11)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant Nos.2012CB955902 and 2013CB430204)
文摘Model error is one of the key factors restricting the accuracy of numerical weather prediction (NWP). Considering the continuous evolution of the atmosphere, the observed data (ignoring the measurement error) can be viewed as a series of solutions of an accurate model governing the actual atmosphere. Model error is represented as an unknown term in the accurate model, thus NWP can be considered as an inverse problem to uncover the unknown error term. The inverse problem models can absorb long periods of observed data to generate model error correction procedures. They thus resolve the deficiency and faultiness of the NWP schemes employing only the initial-time data. In this study we construct two inverse problem models to estimate and extrapolate the time-varying and spatial-varying model errors in both the historical and forecast periods by using recent observations and analogue phenomena of the atmosphere. Numerical experiment on Burgers' equation has illustrated the substantial forecast improvement using inverse problem algorithms. The proposed inverse problem methods of suppressing NWP errors will be useful in future high accuracy applications of NWP.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation Science Fund for Youth (Grant No.41405095)the Key Projects in the National Science and Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth Fiveyear Plan Period (Grant No.2012BAC22B02)the National Natural Science Foundation Science Fund for Creative Research Groups (Grant No.41221064)
文摘Errors inevitably exist in numerical weather prediction (NWP) due to imperfect numeric and physical parameterizations. To eliminate these errors, by considering NWP as an inverse problem, an unknown term in the prediction equations can be estimated inversely by using the past data, which are presumed to represent the imperfection of the NWP model (model error, denoted as ME). In this first paper of a two-part series, an iteration method for obtaining the MEs in past intervals is presented, and the results from testing its convergence in idealized experiments are reported. Moreover, two batches of iteration tests were applied in the global forecast system of the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES-GFS) for July-August 2009 and January-February 2010. The datasets associated with the initial conditions and sea surface temperature (SST) were both based on NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) FNL (final) data. The results showed that 6th h forecast errors were reduced to 10% of their original value after a 20-step iteration. Then, off-line forecast error corrections were estimated linearly based on the 2-month mean MEs and compared with forecast errors. The estimated error corrections agreed well with the forecast errors, but the linear growth rate of the estimation was steeper than the forecast error. The advantage of this iteration method is that the MEs can provide the foundation for online correction. A larger proportion of the forecast errors can be expected to be canceled out by properly introducing the model error correction into GRAPES-GFS.
基金supported by the National "863" High Technology Research and Development Program of China(2007AA703428)
文摘The presence of array imperfection and mutual coupling in sensor arrays poses several challenges for development of effective algorithms for the direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation problem in array processing. A correlation domain wideband DOA estimation algorithm without array calibration is proposed, to deal with these array model errors, using the arbitrary antenna array of omnidirectional elements. By using the matrix operators that have the memory and oblivion characteristics, this algorithm can separate the incident signals effectively. Compared with other typical wideband DOA estimation algorithms based on the subspace theory, this algorithm can get robust DOA estimation with regard to position error, gain-phase error, and mutual coupling, by utilizing a relaxation technique based on signal separation. The signal separation category and the robustness of this algorithm to the array model errors are analyzed and proved. The validity and robustness of this algorithm, in the presence of array model errors, are confirmed by theoretical analysis and simulation results.
基金supported by National Department Fundamental Research Foundation of China (Grant No. B222090014)National Department Technology Fundatmental Foundaiton of China (Grant No. C172009C001)
文摘Multistation machining process is widely applied in contemporary manufacturing environment. Modeling of variation propagation in multistation machining process is one of the most important research scenarios. Due to the existence of multiple variation streams, it is challenging to model and analyze variation propagation in a multi-station system. Current approaches to error modeling for multistation machining process are not explicit enough for error control and ensuring final product quality. In this paper, a mathematic model to depict the part dimensional variation of the complex multistation manufacturing process is formulated. A linear state space dimensional error propagation equation is established through kinematics analysis of the influence of locating parameter variations and locating datum variations on dimensional errors, so the dimensional error accumulation and transformation within the multistation process are quantitatively described. A systematic procedure to build the model is presented, which enhances the way to determine the variation sources in complex machining systems. A simple two-dimensional example is used to illustrate the proposed procedures. Finally, an industrial case of multistation machining part in a manufacturing shop is given to testify the validation and practicability of the method. The proposed analytical model is essential to quality control and improvement for multistation systems in machining quality forecasting and design optimization.