A new kind of combining forecasting model based on the generalized weighted functional proportional mean is proposed and the parameter estimation method of its weighting coefficients by means of the algorithm of quadr...A new kind of combining forecasting model based on the generalized weighted functional proportional mean is proposed and the parameter estimation method of its weighting coefficients by means of the algorithm of quadratic programming is given. This model has extensive representation. It is a new kind of aggregative method of group forecasting. By taking the suitable combining form of the forecasting models and seeking the optimal parameter, the optimal combining form can be obtained and the forecasting accuracy can be improved. The effectiveness of this model is demonstrated by an example.展开更多
This paper presents a new method of detecting multi-periodicities in a seasonal time series. Conventional methods such as the average power spectrum or the autocorrelation function plot have been used in detecting mul...This paper presents a new method of detecting multi-periodicities in a seasonal time series. Conventional methods such as the average power spectrum or the autocorrelation function plot have been used in detecting multiple periodicities. However, there are numerous cases where those methods either fail, or lead to incorrectly detected periods. This, in turn in applications, produces improper models and results in larger forecasting errors. There is a strong need for a new approach to detecting multi-periodicities. This paper tends to fill this gap by proposing a new method which relies on a mathematical instrument, called the Average Power Function of Noise (APFN) of a time series. APFN has a prominent property that it has a strict local minimum at each period of the time series. This characteristic helps one in detecting periods in time series. Unlike the power spectrum method where it is assumed that the time series is composed of sinusoidal functions of different frequencies, in APFN it is assumed that the time series is periodic, the unique and a much weaker assumption. Therefore, this new instrument is expected to be more powerful in multi-periodicity detection than both the autocorrelation function plot and the average power spectrum. Properties of APFN and applications of the new method in periodicity detection and in forecasting are presented.展开更多
Function S-rough sets has the properties of dynamics, heredity, and memory. Function S-rough sets is penetrated and crossed with the issue of economic law forecast, then a new forecast model based on function S-rough ...Function S-rough sets has the properties of dynamics, heredity, and memory. Function S-rough sets is penetrated and crossed with the issue of economic law forecast, then a new forecast model based on function S-rough sets namely the two law forecast model is proposed, which includes upper law forecast model and lower law forecast model; and its＇ implement algorithm is given. Finally, the validity of the model is demonstrated by the forecast for region economic development of Hainan Province.展开更多
<div style="text-align:justify;"> <span style="font-family:Verdana;">Sensitivity analysis of neural networks to input variation is an important research area as it goes some way to addr...<div style="text-align:justify;"> <span style="font-family:Verdana;">Sensitivity analysis of neural networks to input variation is an important research area as it goes some way to addressing the criticisms of their black-box behaviour. Such analysis of RBFNs for hydrological modelling has previously been limited to exploring perturbations to both inputs and connecting weights. In this paper, the backward chaining rule that has been used for sensitivity analysis of MLPs, is applied to RBFNs and it is shown how such analysis can provide insight into physical relationships. A trigonometric example is first presented to show the effectiveness and accuracy of this approach for first order derivatives alongside a comparison of the results with an equivalent MLP. The paper presents a real-world application in the modelling of river stage shows the importance of such approaches helping to justify and select such models.</span> </div>展开更多
针对传统数值预报模式计算时间长和计算资源消耗大的问题,以及现有深度学习预报方法在温度预报结果上不精确,且预测结果模糊的问题,提出了一个新的温度预报模型。首先,设计了一个时空信息捕捉模块,将该模块捕获的长期依赖信息,作为扩散...针对传统数值预报模式计算时间长和计算资源消耗大的问题,以及现有深度学习预报方法在温度预报结果上不精确,且预测结果模糊的问题,提出了一个新的温度预报模型。首先,设计了一个时空信息捕捉模块,将该模块捕获的长期依赖信息,作为扩散模型的生成条件,赋予扩散模型预报的能力;其次,设计了一个新的平衡损失函数,同时保护了扩散模型的生成能力和时空信息捕捉模块对时空信息的捕捉能力;最后,基于美国国家环境预报中心的再分析数据进行预报,与现有的深度学习方法相比,所提模型预报结果的质量在均方误差(mean square error,MSE)上降低了17.3%,在均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)上降低了9.14%,在峰值信噪比(peak signal to noise ratio,PSNR)上提升了5.1%。改进的扩散模型能有效地捕捉时空依赖的关系,有效地进行时空序列预测,效果优于其他对比方法。展开更多
As a result of the fierceness of business competition, companies, to remaincompetitive, have to charm their customers by anticipating their needs and being able to rapidlydevelop exciting new products for them. To ove...As a result of the fierceness of business competition, companies, to remaincompetitive, have to charm their customers by anticipating their needs and being able to rapidlydevelop exciting new products for them. To overcome this challenge, technology forecasting isconsidered as a powerful tool in today's business environment, while there are as many successstories as there are failures, a good application of this method will give a good result. Amethodology of integration of patterns or lines of technology evolution in TRIZ parlance ispresented, which is also known as TRIZ technology forecasting, as input to the QFD process to designa new product. For this purpose, TRIZ technology forecasting, one of the TRIZ major tools, isdiscussed and some benefits compared to the traditional forecasting techniques are highlighted. Thena methodology to integrate TRIZ technology forecasting and QFD process is highlighted.展开更多
文摘A new kind of combining forecasting model based on the generalized weighted functional proportional mean is proposed and the parameter estimation method of its weighting coefficients by means of the algorithm of quadratic programming is given. This model has extensive representation. It is a new kind of aggregative method of group forecasting. By taking the suitable combining form of the forecasting models and seeking the optimal parameter, the optimal combining form can be obtained and the forecasting accuracy can be improved. The effectiveness of this model is demonstrated by an example.
文摘This paper presents a new method of detecting multi-periodicities in a seasonal time series. Conventional methods such as the average power spectrum or the autocorrelation function plot have been used in detecting multiple periodicities. However, there are numerous cases where those methods either fail, or lead to incorrectly detected periods. This, in turn in applications, produces improper models and results in larger forecasting errors. There is a strong need for a new approach to detecting multi-periodicities. This paper tends to fill this gap by proposing a new method which relies on a mathematical instrument, called the Average Power Function of Noise (APFN) of a time series. APFN has a prominent property that it has a strict local minimum at each period of the time series. This characteristic helps one in detecting periods in time series. Unlike the power spectrum method where it is assumed that the time series is composed of sinusoidal functions of different frequencies, in APFN it is assumed that the time series is periodic, the unique and a much weaker assumption. Therefore, this new instrument is expected to be more powerful in multi-periodicity detection than both the autocorrelation function plot and the average power spectrum. Properties of APFN and applications of the new method in periodicity detection and in forecasting are presented.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (60364001, 70461004)the Hainan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (807054)Hainan Provincial Eduction Office Foundation (HJ2008-56).
文摘Function S-rough sets has the properties of dynamics, heredity, and memory. Function S-rough sets is penetrated and crossed with the issue of economic law forecast, then a new forecast model based on function S-rough sets namely the two law forecast model is proposed, which includes upper law forecast model and lower law forecast model; and its＇ implement algorithm is given. Finally, the validity of the model is demonstrated by the forecast for region economic development of Hainan Province.
文摘<div style="text-align:justify;"> <span style="font-family:Verdana;">Sensitivity analysis of neural networks to input variation is an important research area as it goes some way to addressing the criticisms of their black-box behaviour. Such analysis of RBFNs for hydrological modelling has previously been limited to exploring perturbations to both inputs and connecting weights. In this paper, the backward chaining rule that has been used for sensitivity analysis of MLPs, is applied to RBFNs and it is shown how such analysis can provide insight into physical relationships. A trigonometric example is first presented to show the effectiveness and accuracy of this approach for first order derivatives alongside a comparison of the results with an equivalent MLP. The paper presents a real-world application in the modelling of river stage shows the importance of such approaches helping to justify and select such models.</span> </div>
文摘针对传统数值预报模式计算时间长和计算资源消耗大的问题,以及现有深度学习预报方法在温度预报结果上不精确,且预测结果模糊的问题,提出了一个新的温度预报模型。首先,设计了一个时空信息捕捉模块,将该模块捕获的长期依赖信息,作为扩散模型的生成条件,赋予扩散模型预报的能力;其次,设计了一个新的平衡损失函数,同时保护了扩散模型的生成能力和时空信息捕捉模块对时空信息的捕捉能力;最后,基于美国国家环境预报中心的再分析数据进行预报,与现有的深度学习方法相比,所提模型预报结果的质量在均方误差(mean square error,MSE)上降低了17.3%,在均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)上降低了9.14%,在峰值信噪比(peak signal to noise ratio,PSNR)上提升了5.1%。改进的扩散模型能有效地捕捉时空依赖的关系,有效地进行时空序列预测,效果优于其他对比方法。
基金This project is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.20172041) and Provincial Science Foundation of Anhui, China (No.03042308).
文摘As a result of the fierceness of business competition, companies, to remaincompetitive, have to charm their customers by anticipating their needs and being able to rapidlydevelop exciting new products for them. To overcome this challenge, technology forecasting isconsidered as a powerful tool in today's business environment, while there are as many successstories as there are failures, a good application of this method will give a good result. Amethodology of integration of patterns or lines of technology evolution in TRIZ parlance ispresented, which is also known as TRIZ technology forecasting, as input to the QFD process to designa new product. For this purpose, TRIZ technology forecasting, one of the TRIZ major tools, isdiscussed and some benefits compared to the traditional forecasting techniques are highlighted. Thena methodology to integrate TRIZ technology forecasting and QFD process is highlighted.
