Historically,geopolitical risk(GPR)has posed significant challenges to international economic,social,and political frameworks.This study investigated how internal GPR in the selected five Southeast Asian countries(Ind...Historically,geopolitical risk(GPR)has posed significant challenges to international economic,social,and political frameworks.This study investigated how internal GPR in the selected five Southeast Asian countries(Indonesia,South Korea,Malaysia,the Philippines,and Thailand)influences foreign direct investment(FDI)during 1996-2019.The stationarity of the data was assessed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller(ADF)unit root test,which shows that the data became stationary after the first difference.The Kao,Pedroni,and Westerlund cointegration tests were employed to examine long-term cointegration among the selected variables(FDI,GPR index(GPRI),gross domestic product(GDP),inflation,interest rate,and trade openness(TOP)).The results indicated that these variables have a long-term cointegration.Consequently,regression analysis using the Pooled Ordinary Least Squares(OLS)regression,fixed effect,random effect,Arellano-Bond dynamic panel-data estimation,and system generalized moment method(GMM)revealed that GPRI and TOP negatively impacted FDI in the selected five Southeast Asian countries.At the same time,GDP,inflation,and interest rate positively influenced FDI in these countries.Because FDI is crucial to shaping a country’s macroeconomic structure,this study recommends that governments and central banks of the selected five Southeast Asian countries should implement policies and strategies to encourage foreign investments.展开更多
This study attempts to investigate the effect of financial and political risk on Chinese outward FDI activities in 56 emerging economies for a period from 2003 to 2013. Exchange rate is taken as a main indicator of fi...This study attempts to investigate the effect of financial and political risk on Chinese outward FDI activities in 56 emerging economies for a period from 2003 to 2013. Exchange rate is taken as a main indicator of financial risks and political risks are evaluated using ICRG （International Country Risk Guide） index. Generalized method of moments with panel data of Chinese outward FDI （foreign direct investment） in new emerging economies is used to find how Chinese finns intend to invest abroad with respect to exchange rate level, volatility, and expectation. The major findings show that RMB appreciation proved to have a positive effect on Chinese outward FDI in emerging economies. But Chinese OFDI （outward foreign direct investment） seems not to respond to exchange rate volatility. The expectation of RMB＇s appreciation has positive effect on Chinese OFDI in emerging economies. Results also show that more political risk leads to more Chinese OFDI in emerging economies.展开更多
This paper focuses on a conventional debate regarding whether Chinese outward direct investors tend to invest in countries with high political risk. Using 2003 -2011 data from the World Bank, the Heritage Foundation a...This paper focuses on a conventional debate regarding whether Chinese outward direct investors tend to invest in countries with high political risk. Using 2003 -2011 data from the World Bank, the Heritage Foundation and the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, we investigate China ＇s political risk distribution and political risk index （PRI）. Our results indicate that China ＂s political risk index was ranked 48th among 153 economies in 2011, in the lower risk level of the PRI spectrum. In an international comparison of political risk distribution, the proportion of Chinese outward direct investment （ODI） among countries with high political risk is less than the world average. The Chinese ODI political risk index has significantly improved and remains lower than the world average. To improve Chinese ODI PRI, the Chinese Government should continue to implement differentiation strategies and to offer official development assistance to improve the investment environment in developing countries and reduce political risk.展开更多
In the context of global integration, whether a diplomatic partnership strategy can promote outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and how it works are very important issues for China.Based on a dataset featuring Ch...In the context of global integration, whether a diplomatic partnership strategy can promote outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and how it works are very important issues for China.Based on a dataset featuring China's partnerships collected from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website,we establish an empirical framework to assess the role of China's diplomatic strategy in its OFDI arising from partnerships since 1993. The results show that the establishment or upgrade of partnerships has had a positive effect on Chinese firms' decisions on OFDI for at least the short term, especially for firms with higher demand for policy guarantees from the government, such as noncentral firms and non-Beijing firms. The results also show that the increase in OFDI is concentrated in host countries with higher political risks, such as developing countries, neighboring countries, and Belt and Road countries,which is consistent with China's diplomatic focus.Our research proves that China's diplomatic strategy can assist firms to invest abroad.展开更多
文摘Historically,geopolitical risk(GPR)has posed significant challenges to international economic,social,and political frameworks.This study investigated how internal GPR in the selected five Southeast Asian countries(Indonesia,South Korea,Malaysia,the Philippines,and Thailand)influences foreign direct investment(FDI)during 1996-2019.The stationarity of the data was assessed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller(ADF)unit root test,which shows that the data became stationary after the first difference.The Kao,Pedroni,and Westerlund cointegration tests were employed to examine long-term cointegration among the selected variables(FDI,GPR index(GPRI),gross domestic product(GDP),inflation,interest rate,and trade openness(TOP)).The results indicated that these variables have a long-term cointegration.Consequently,regression analysis using the Pooled Ordinary Least Squares(OLS)regression,fixed effect,random effect,Arellano-Bond dynamic panel-data estimation,and system generalized moment method(GMM)revealed that GPRI and TOP negatively impacted FDI in the selected five Southeast Asian countries.At the same time,GDP,inflation,and interest rate positively influenced FDI in these countries.Because FDI is crucial to shaping a country’s macroeconomic structure,this study recommends that governments and central banks of the selected five Southeast Asian countries should implement policies and strategies to encourage foreign investments.
基金Acknowledgements： This paper is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （71072066, 71302183）, the Social Science Fund of China＇s Education Department （14YJC790053）, the Distinguished Young Scholars Fund of Sichuan University （SKJC201007, SKYB201402）, and the Sichuan Provincial Social Science Fund （SC14C054）. The usual disclaimer applies.
文摘This study attempts to investigate the effect of financial and political risk on Chinese outward FDI activities in 56 emerging economies for a period from 2003 to 2013. Exchange rate is taken as a main indicator of financial risks and political risks are evaluated using ICRG （International Country Risk Guide） index. Generalized method of moments with panel data of Chinese outward FDI （foreign direct investment） in new emerging economies is used to find how Chinese finns intend to invest abroad with respect to exchange rate level, volatility, and expectation. The major findings show that RMB appreciation proved to have a positive effect on Chinese outward FDI in emerging economies. But Chinese OFDI （outward foreign direct investment） seems not to respond to exchange rate volatility. The expectation of RMB＇s appreciation has positive effect on Chinese OFDI in emerging economies. Results also show that more political risk leads to more Chinese OFDI in emerging economies.
文摘This paper focuses on a conventional debate regarding whether Chinese outward direct investors tend to invest in countries with high political risk. Using 2003 -2011 data from the World Bank, the Heritage Foundation and the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, we investigate China ＇s political risk distribution and political risk index （PRI）. Our results indicate that China ＂s political risk index was ranked 48th among 153 economies in 2011, in the lower risk level of the PRI spectrum. In an international comparison of political risk distribution, the proportion of Chinese outward direct investment （ODI） among countries with high political risk is less than the world average. The Chinese ODI political risk index has significantly improved and remains lower than the world average. To improve Chinese ODI PRI, the Chinese Government should continue to implement differentiation strategies and to offer official development assistance to improve the investment environment in developing countries and reduce political risk.
基金This work was supported by the National Social Science Fund of China(No.18ZDA039)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.JBK1907201895)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71832012).
文摘In the context of global integration, whether a diplomatic partnership strategy can promote outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) and how it works are very important issues for China.Based on a dataset featuring China's partnerships collected from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs website,we establish an empirical framework to assess the role of China's diplomatic strategy in its OFDI arising from partnerships since 1993. The results show that the establishment or upgrade of partnerships has had a positive effect on Chinese firms' decisions on OFDI for at least the short term, especially for firms with higher demand for policy guarantees from the government, such as noncentral firms and non-Beijing firms. The results also show that the increase in OFDI is concentrated in host countries with higher political risks, such as developing countries, neighboring countries, and Belt and Road countries,which is consistent with China's diplomatic focus.Our research proves that China's diplomatic strategy can assist firms to invest abroad.
