Rethinking Fast Growth in China's Foreign Exchange Reserves

The sustained surpluses in the current and capital accounts of balance of payments are the main reason for the continuing rapid expanse of China＇s foreign exchange reserves in recent years. However, flaws in the formation of the renminbi exchange rate regime are the institutional root cause of the sustained high growth in foreign exchange reserves. Various theoretical misconceptions about the scale of foreign exchange reserves have swayed policies and contributed to its sustained fast growth. Sustained high growth of China＇s foreign exchange reserves, and its extraordinary large scale, carry tremendous risks. Because the security of foreign exchange reserves affects a country＇s financial safety, China urgently needs to adjust its foreign exchange reserve policies.

谈外汇储备持续高增长与战略性政策调整

我国的外汇储备近年来出现了持续高增长,这种趋势在短期内难以逆转。我国外汇储备持续大幅度增长是特定的国际经济格局下,同制度缺陷、价格扭曲、内需不足、宏观经济不平衡联系在一起的。过多的外汇储备给经济发展和货币流通稳定带来了负面冲击,加大了货币调控政策的实施难度。我国下一步的宏观金融政策决策,需要考虑外汇储备持续增长这一市场背景带来的一系列挑战,并做出相应的调整。

外汇储备的迅速增加与汇率政策的调整

外汇储备是宏观经济运行的结果,是国际收支的综合反映。然而,外汇储备的规模又对宏观经济产生多方面的影响。随着改革开放的深入,外汇储备规模扩张对我国经济影响的双刃剑作用愈益显现,即在对宏观经济发展产生积极影响的同时,对宏观经济发展的消极影响也越来越明显。因此,需要剖析外汇储备迅速增加的利弊,调整汇率政策,促进国内经济和对外经济协调发展。