Step-over of strike-slip faults and overpressure fluid favor occurrence of foreshocks:Insights from the 1975 Haicheng fore-main-aftershock sequence,China

This study analyzed and summarized in detail the spatial and temporal distributions of earthquakes,tidal responses,focal mechanisms,and stress field characteristics for the M 7.3 Haicheng earthquake sequence in February 1975.The foreshocks are related to the main fault and the conjugate faults surrounding the extension step-over in the middle.The initiation timing of the foreshock clusters and the original time of the mainshock were clearly modulated by the Earth's tidal force and coincided with the peak of dilational volumetric tidal strain.As a plausible and testable hypothesis,we proposed a fluid-driven foreshock model,by which all observed seismicity features can be more reasonably interpreted with respect to the results of existing models.Together with some other known examples,the widely existing step-over along strike-slip faults and associated conjugate faults,especially for extensional ones in the presence of deep fluids,favor the occurrence of short-term foreshocks.Although clustered seismicity with characteristics similar to those of the studied case is not a sufficient and necessary condition for large earthquakes to occur under similar tectonic conditions,it undoubtedly has a warning significance for the criticality of the main fault.Subsequent testing would require quantification of true/false positives/negatives.

Using the match-and-locate method to characterize foreshocks of the July 2019 M_(W)6.4 Ridgecrest,California earthquake

The July 2019 M_(W)6.4 Ridgecrest,California earthquake and its distinct foreshocks were well recorded by local and regional stations,providing a great opportunity to characterize its foreshocks and investigate the nucleation mechanisms of the mainshock.In this study,we utilized the match-and-locate(M&L)method to build a high-precision foreshock catalog for this M_(W)6.4 earthquake.Compared with the sequential location methods(matched-filter+cross-correlation-based hypoDD),our new catalog contains more events with higher location accuracy.The M_(W)6.4 mainshock was preceded by 40 foreshocks within~2 h(on July 4,2019 from 15:35:29 to 17:32:52,UTC).Their spatiotemporal distribution revealed a complex seismogenic structure consisting of multiple fault strands,which were connected as a throughgoing fault by later foreshocks and eventually accommodated the 2019 M_(W)6.4 mainshock.To better understand the nucleation mechanism,we determined the rupture dimension of the largest M_(L)4.0 foreshock by calculating its initial rupture and centroid points using the M&L method.By estimating Coulomb stress change we suggested that the majority of foreshocks following the M_(L)4.0 event and M_(W)6.4 mainshock occurred within regions of increasing Coulomb stress,indicating that they were triggered by stress transfer.The nucleation process before the M_(L)4.0 event remains unclear due to the insufficient sampling rate of waveforms and small magnitude of events.Thus,our study demonstrates that the M&L method has superior detection and location ability,showing potential for studies that require high-precision location(e.g.,earthquake nucleation).

Some Foreshocks and Aftershocks Associated with the Moiyabana Earthquake of 2017 in Botswana

On the 3rd of April 2017, an earthquake of moment magnitude 6.5 occurred near Moiyabana in central Botswana. This paper is aimed at studying the spatial distribution of the foreshock and aftershock sequences associated with the Moiyabana earthquake. The foreshocks and aftershocks data used were from the Botswana Geoscience Institute (BGI) and the Seisan software was used to analyze the foreshock and aftershock events. The analyses revealed nine epicenter locations of foreshocks which are spread out across the country and most of them are located in the central and southern parts of Botswana, while the aftershocks are clustered around the mainshock. Although five of the nine foreshocks occurred far from the boundaries of major tectonic units, the other four occurred near key features such as the Zoetfontein, Lecha and Chobe faults. The spatial distribution of aftershocks indicates that the stress released by the mainshock, re-activated the planes of weakness in the vicinity of the mainshock and farther away from the mainshock. Hence, this affected the Zoetfontein fault, the boundary between Passarge basin and Magondi belt and the boundary between the Kaapvaal craton and Limpopo mobile belt. The aftershocks also show a northwest-southeast trend, which probably indicates the rupture plane;and mainly lie within the Limpopo mobile belt that is sandwiched between the Kaapvaal craton to the south and Zimbabwe craton to the north. Furthermore, the aftershocks concentration to the south reveals a close relation in demarcating the boundary of the Kaapvaal craton and the Limpopo mobile belt.

Discrimination Between Foreshocks and Earthquake Swarm from the Change of First Motion Sign

Based on the data of first motion of 11 earthquake sequences with ML ≥ 3.0 recorded by the Telemetric Seismic Network of Shanxi since the 1980s, the first motion characteristics of each earthquake sequence were studied. It is known that earthquake sequences of different types have different consistency characteristics of focal mechanism. The decrease and increase of the first motion contradictory sign ratios could be taken as an index to judge whether there would still be a larger earthquake to come after the earthquake sequence.

How to Identify Foreshocks in Seismic Sequences to Predict Strong Earthquakes

The time analysis of seismic events preceding several strong earthquakes occurred in recent decades throughout the world, has highlighted some foreshocks’ characteristics, which are helpful for their discrimination compared to other types of events. These features can be identified within the seismic sequence and used as strong events’ precursors. Through the energy release pattern analysis, which precedes any strong earthquakes, in this study we describe some graphical procedures suitable for distinguishing a foreshock from any other type of earthquake. We have broadly divided foreshocks into two classes, depending on their position within the energy release pattern, by describing some relationships between the foreshock’s magnitude and the following earthquake’s. The results obtained show how the energy release pattern of some major earthquakes has distinctive features and repeatability which it is possible to obtain information from in order to perform sufficiently reliable short-term forecasts.

The April 14th, 2010 Yushu earthquake, a devastating earthquake with foreshocks

In the early morning of April 14th, 2010, a strong earth- quake (Ms7.1, http://www.csndmc.ac.cn; Mw6.9, http://neic. usgs.gov) occurred in Yushu district, Qinghai Province, China. More than 2000 lives were lost and over 100000 injured,

Deformations at Earth’s dayside magnetopause during quasi-radial IMF conditions:Global kinetic simulations and Soft X-ray Imaging

The Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)is a joint mission of the European Space Agency(ESA)and the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS).Primary goals are investigating the dynamic response of the Earth's magnetosphere to the solar wind(SW)impact via simultaneous in situ magnetosheath plasma and magnetic field measurements,X-Ray images of the magnetosheath and magnetic cusps,and UV images of global auroral distributions.Magnetopause deformations associated with magnetosheath high speed jets(HSJs)under a quasi-parallel interplanetary magnetic field condition are studied using a threedimensional(3-D)global hybrid simulation.Soft X-ray intensity calculated based on both physical quantities of solar wind proton and oxygen ions is compared.We obtain key findings concerning deformations at the magnetopause:(1)Magnetopause deformations are highly coherent with the magnetosheath HSJs generated at the quasi-parallel region of the bow shock,(2)X-ray intensities estimated using solar wind h+and self-consistentO7+ions are consistent with each other,(3)Visual spacecraft are employed to check the discrimination ability for capturing magnetopause deformations on Lunar and polar orbits,respectively.The SMILE spacecraft on the polar orbit could be expected to provide opportunities for capturing the global geometry of the magnetopause in the equatorial plane.A striking point is that SMILE has the potential to capture small-scale magnetopause deformations and magnetosheath transients,such as HSJs,at medium altitudes on its orbit.Simulation results also demonstrate that a lunar based imager(e.g.,Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager,LEXI)is expected to observe a localized brightening of the magnetosheath during HSJ events in the meridian plane.These preliminary results might contribute to the pre-studies for the SMILE and LEXI missions by providing qualitative and quantitative soft X-ray estimates of dayside kinetic processes.

Statistical study of magnetic holes in the upstream region of Mercury’s bow shock

Magnetic holes are magnetic depression structures that exist widely in many plasma environments.The magnetic holes with durations of>1 s in the solar wind at Mercury’s orbit have drawn much attention,but the properties of the magnetic holes with shorter durations are still unclear.Here,we investigate the magnetic holes with durations of 0.1-100 s in the upstream region of Mercury’s bow shock based on observations by the MESSENGER(MErcury Surface,Space ENvironment,GEochemistry,and Ranging)spacecraft.They can be divided into two groups according to the distribution of their duration:small-duration magnetic holes(SDMHs,<0.6 s)and large-duration magnetic holes(LDMHs,>0.6 s).The duration of each group approximately obeys a log-normal distribution with a median of~0.25 s and 3 s,respectively.Approximately 1.7%(32.6%)of the SDMHs(LDMHs)reduce the magnetic field strength by more than 50%.For both groups,some structures have a linear or quasi-linear polarization,whereas others have an elliptical polarization.The magnetic hole events in both groups tend to have a higher rate of occurrence when the interplanetary magnetic field strength is weaker.Their occurrence rates are also affected by Mercury’s foreshock,which can increase(decrease)the occurrence rate of the SDMHs(LDMHs).This finding suggests that Mercury’s foreshock might be one source of the SDMHs and that the foreshock can destroy some LDMHs.These observations suggest that a new group of magnetic holes with durations of<0.6 s exist in the upstream region of Mercury’s bow shock.

How to Predict Earthquakes with Microsequences and Reversed Phase Repetitive Patterns

A strong earthquake is always preceded by groupings of shocks whose identification and understanding constitute a sound method for improving short-term earthquake forecasts. Thanks to a graphical method, we have identified and classified some microsequences and reversed phase repetitive patterns that precede the hazardous events. The seismic microsequences include a series of information useful to know in advance the beginning of energy release and accumulation phases that usually precede and follow a moderate-to-high magnitude earthquake. Their identification and correct interpretation allow us to determine various warning signals. In particular, through the analysis of their shape and position in the seismic sequence we can claim that the strongest earthquakes occur shortly after the formation of some peculiar micro-sequences. The checks carried out on large data sets related to earthquakes occurred in the past have shown that the analysis procedures developed do not depend on the size of the area analyzed while predicting a high percentage of moderate-to-high magnitude earthquakes.

Time and space analysis of two earthquakes in the Appennines (Italy)

In this paper, we study two earthquakes: the April 6th 2009 earthquake of L’Aquila in the region of Abruzzo (Italy) and the 1997 Colfiorito earthquake in the regions of Umbria and Marche (Italy). The data sets of these two earthquakes were analysed in both time and space domains. For time domain we used statistical methods and models both parametric and non-parametric. Concerning the space domain, we used Mathematical Morphology filters. The time domain analysis provides evidence of a possible correlation between seismic activities and the tides of the crust of the Earth. The results obtained show evidence that the daily number of earthquakes of the sequences proceeding and following the April 6th 2009 earthquake of L’Aquila and that of the sequence following the 1997 Colfiorito earthquake have a periodic component of occurrence with period of about 7 days. It seems that the maxima of this component occur at a position of the Moon with respect to the Earth and the Sun corresponding to approximately 3 days before the four main Moon phases. The space domain analysis indicates that the foreshock activity in both earthquakes is clustered and concentrated. Furthermore, in each of the two earthquakes the clusters are located at about 3 kilometers from the epicentre of the main shock.

Multi-scale expression of spatial activity anomalies of earthquakes and its indicative significance on the space and time attributes of strong earthquakes

The noise modei based on 6 trous wavelet algorithm produces a multi-scale expression of image through the combination of wavelet transform and a testing modei of statistical significance. This kind of expression not only gives the formation and location of image structure on different scales, but also eliminates the influence of noise. Since the algorithm does not need any priori hypotheses, it is suitable for the data with complex structure. The research line is employed in this paper to analyze the spatial activity of earthquake. The method of how to recognize and describe the multi-scale space activity of earthquake is emphatically discussed in this paper. Taking typical sequences in Southwest China as research cases, we systematically study the structure characters of spatial activity of earthquake on different scales. Results show that multi-scale space structure to some extent possesses indicative effect on strong epicenters. And the foreshock anomalies of Songpan seismic sequence also reveal interesting pattern during the spatial-temporal evolvement.

A case study of large-amplitude ULF waves in the Martian foreshock

Foreshock ultralow frequency (ULF) waves constitute a significant physical phenomenon in the plasma environment of terrestrial planets. The occurrence of these waves, associated with backstreaming particles reflected and accelerated at the bow shock, implies specific conditions and properties of the shock and its foreshock. Using magnetic field and ion measurements from MAVEN, we report a clear event of ULF waves in the Martian foreshock. The interplanetary magnetic field connected to the Martian bow shock, forming a shock angle of ~51°. Indicating that this was a fast mode wave is the fact that ion density varied in phase with perturbations of the wave field. The peak frequency of the waves was about 0.040 Hz in the spacecraft frame, much lower than the local proton gyrofrequency (~0.088 Hz). The ULF waves had a propagation angle approximately 34° from ambient magnetic field and were accompanied by the whistler mode. The ULF waves displayed left-hand elliptical polarization with respect to the interplanetary magnetic field in the spacecraft frame. All these properties fit very well with foreshock waves excited by interactions between solar wind and backstreaming ions through right-hand beam instability.

Double Earthquakes Classification and Seismic Precursors

In this paper, we examine both the sequence and organisation of major shallow earthquakes occurred in various areas of the world from 1904 to 2017. We aim to describe their major features and how they are connected with foreshocks and aftershocks immediately close in time and space. Examining magnitude value’s fluctuations over time, we see that they form a basic pattern, consisting of three maxima, one of which is central, and two or more events preceding and following it, whose magnitude, in some cases, may be comparable. The retrospective analysis of earthquakes’ patterns of high comparable magnitude has allowed their classification along with the development of some statistically significant relationships between epicentral distance and magnitude difference and between time interval and delay among maxima as well as the identification of activation signals predicting their occurrence. The pattern we identified in seismic sequences analysis, in relation to minor shocks-generated activation signals’ positions may be used to obtain useful information for the evolutionary study of seismic sequences and for predicting double and multiple earthquakes. The graphic analysis procedure applied to the pattern enables us to know the period of seismic sequence’s greatest hazard after a strong earthquake.

Short-Term Earthquake Forecast with the Seismic Sequence Hierarchization Method

All strong earthquakes are preceded by branching structures having different durations whose development scheme is partly largely predictable because it follows a well organized and recognizable pattern. By using a seismic sequence hierarchization method, this study graphically explains the preparation process of an earthquake, called “branching structure”. In addition, criteria apt to distinguish the structures that will produce shocks of average magnitude from strong earthquakes’ will be defined. Based on the temporal oscillations of the magnitude values, we explain the procedure for identifying the developmental stages that characterize the energy accumulation stage of the branching structure, in order to early detect the energy release stage’s trigger point and obtain information on how it will develop over time. The study identifies also some pre-signals (trigger points) of various magnitudes in the energy release stage, which allows us to early predict the foreshocks and mainshock time position. The method we developed constitutes a truly innovative approach for the earthquake forecasting analysis, which dramatically differs from those developed so far, as it considers the structure of the seismic sequence not only as a magnitude values’ oscillation, but also as a sequence of developmental stages that may begin much earlier.

Seismic Sequence Structure and Earthquakes Triggering Patterns

Within a time distribution of magnitude values, before any mainshock some earthquake triggering patterns with several features develop, under tectonic processes’ influence, through which it is possible to early identify the preparation phase of big earthquakes. The purpose of this article was to identify and classify the warning patterns that develop before a big earthquake by considering space-time seismicity variations. The methodological approach adopted was of graphical type, based on procedures of technical analysis currently used to estimate the financial markets. In the initial phase of the study we have analyzed the seismic sequences types described in the bibliography (type 1: foreshocks-mainshock-aftershocks, type 2: mainshock-aftershock;type 3: swarm) and the main structure of the seismic cycle, within which maximum and minimum magnitude values characterize the pattern that it develops until the main event changes. Then, we assessed the position of foreshocks, mainshock and aftershocks within the seismic cycle in order to identify the warning pattern that characterized the exact time when the energy emission occurs. As to the evolution normally shown over time, we have grouped the warning patterns in 2 categories: 1) progressive earthquake pattern;2) flash earthquake pattern. Finally, we have made a classification of the warning pattern related to the fluctuations of maximum and minimum magnitude values, compared its form with the mainshock’s focal mechanism and suggested some graphic procedures in order to estimate the mainshock magnitude value associated with each warning pattern. The results we obtained unquestionably allow a better comprehension of preparation process of a large earthquake, improving the earthquakes forecasting probability in the next future.

Characteristics of foreshock and its identi-fication

In the paper, we analyze 117 moderate-strong earthquakes occurred in Chinese mainland (Ms greater than or equal 5.5 in the east and Ms greater than or equal 6.0 in the west) since 1970, among them, 11 earthquakes (about 9%) have direct foreshocks and 63 earthquakes (about 51%) have generalized foreshocks. The predominant time interval between foreshock and main earthquake is no more than 30 days with a spatial distance less than 50 km and a magnitude difference over 1. From the digital seismic data in Liaoning Province, we know that direct foreshock had an obvious shear-stress background before the Ms=5.6 and Ms=5.1 Xiuyan earthquakes occurred on Nov. 29, 1999 and Jan.15, 2000.

Small-scale ion flux and magnetic field fluctuations in solar wind, foreshock and magnetosheath

We have continued investigation of waves in the regions of undisturbed solar wind, foreshock and magnetosheath. The analysis of ion flux and magnetic field variations with the time interval 1-240s was performed in the regions above. Very large variation in such a time interval can be considered the common feature of the foreshock and magnetosheath. The results of case and statistical studies showed that the level of relative variations of ion flux and magnetic field magnitude in foreshock is about 3 times larger than in undisturbed solar wind. Variations of these parameters in the magnetosheath topologically connected with the quasi-parallel bow shock are about two times larger than those behind the quasi-perpendicular. We also compared the results from Interball-1 data analysis with those from statistical analysis of cluster magnetic field measurements. The magnetic field variations obtained from the different satellite data coincide with each other very well not only in quality but also in quantity.

The Tongliao MS5.3 Earthquake and Its Foreshock Determination

Taking the 2013 Tongliao MS5. 3 earthquake as a research subject, on the basis of statistical analysis of earthquake sequence using the HypoDD location method and focal mechanism solutions,the paper analyzes and discusses the relationship between the ML4. 4 and MS5. 3 earthquakes. The results show that the Tongliao MS5. 3 earthquake occurred under the background of medium-small earthquakes long-term quiescence and short-term enhancement in the epicentral area. The results of accurate seismic location shows that the Tongliao MS5. 3 earthquake sequence is distributed in the NW direction,extending 10 km,and the ML≥3. 0 aftershocks are concentrated south of the mainshock. The distance between the MS5. 3 mainshock and the ML4. 4 foreshock is about 1. 8 km,with a focal depth of 7. 208 km and 7. 089 km,respectively,their focal location is very close,and may have occurred on the same fault plane. The results of focal mechanism shows that the Tongliao MS5. 3 earthquake is of the strike-slip type,the focal mechanism of aftershocks are disordered,and with time lapse,the type is changed from strike-slip to thrust and normal faulting. The bigger foreshocks had similar focal mechanism and were all normal fault types,which exhibits to some extent,an obvious crustal medium anisotropy in the epicentral area before macroscopic rupturing,as represented by alignment fractures,with stress action enhanced,this"consistency"of seismic precursor regime would gestate the mainshock. According to the characteristics of temporal-spatial distribution of earthquake sequence and similarity of focal mechanism,we judge that the Tongliao MS5. 3 earthquake sequence is a foreshock-mainshock-aftershock type.

Study on Simulation of Foreshock Activity Properties before Strong Earthquake Using Heterogeneous Cellular Automata Models

Three different degrees of heterogeneous fault models are simulated by using 2-D random dynamic cellular automata models for analyzing macroscopic behaviors of seismic activity evolution influenced by heterogeneity of fault structures. The results show that the heterogeneities of fault structures can influence evolution properties of the foreshock activity and rupture process, such as the mediate heterogeneous and less heterogeneous structures, which show relatively higher ASR rates and more significant seismic gaps before main shocks. Besides, stress drop distribution ranges of the foreshock events when approaching a main shock show more homogenous (narrower) than that of the foreshock events far from a main shock. So the heterogeneity of fault structures plays an important role in strong earthquake preparation processes.

Information and Predictive Oscillators of Energy Earthquakes

Through the analysis of different seismic sequence, it is possible to observe that, before a strong earthquake, the values of longitude and latitude of the shocks begin to fluctuate in an abnormal way. The amplitude increases beyond the normal level just before the earthquake occurs, forming an easily identifiable pattern. The purpose of this study is to analyze the anomalous fluctuations of values the longitude and/or latitude during seismic activity and to carry out some simple procedures, reliable enough for the search of attention signals that precede a strong earthquake and in some cases its epicenter. The retrospective analyses carried out on many sequences of earthquake data occurred in different tectonic environments, have shown how all earthquakes were preceded by abnormal fluctuations in the values of longitude and/or latitude. This study describes the graphic and calculation procedures with the aim of obtaining information on the occurrence of the large earthquakes studied. In particular, we have noticed that the earthquake occurs after extreme levels of fluctuation are reached in the series of values analyzed. Through this model, it is possible to recognize elements discriminated during the evolution of the seismic sequence and using them as possible precursors of short-term, strong earthquakes.