Daxing’anling is a key region for forest fire prevention in China. Assessing changes in fire risk in the future under multiple climatic scenarios will contribute to our understanding of the influences of climate chan...Daxing’anling is a key region for forest fire prevention in China. Assessing changes in fire risk in the future under multiple climatic scenarios will contribute to our understanding of the influences of climate change for the region and provide a reference for applying adaptive measures for fire management. This study analyzed the changes in fire weather indices and the fire season under four climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5) for 2021-2050 using data from five global climate models together with observation data. The results showed that the analog data could project the average state of the climate for a given period but were not effective for simulating extreme weather conditions. Compared with the baseline period (1971-2000), the period 2021-2050 was predicted to have an increase in average temperature of 2.02-2.65 °C and in annual precipitation 25.4-40.3 mm, while the fire weather index (FWI) was predicted to increase by 6.2-11.2% and seasonal severity rating (SSR) by 5.5-17.2%. The DMC (Duff moisture code), ISI (initial spread index), BUI (build-up index), FWI and SSR were predicted to increase significantly under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Furthermore, days with high or higher fire danger rating were predicted to be prolonged by 3-6 days, with the change in the southern region being greater under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5.展开更多
基于森林火灾统计资料,采用加拿大森林火险天气指标系统(Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System,CFFWIS)分析了浙江省森林火险期内森林火险天气指标动态变化趋势。结果表明:研究区火险期内森林火灾发生次数呈递减趋势,但每场火灾...基于森林火灾统计资料,采用加拿大森林火险天气指标系统(Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System,CFFWIS)分析了浙江省森林火险期内森林火险天气指标动态变化趋势。结果表明:研究区火险期内森林火灾发生次数呈递减趋势,但每场火灾的平均过火面积呈显著增加趋势(P<0.01);细小可燃物湿度码(CFFM)和初始蔓延指标(IIS)达到显著水平(P<0.05),可作为浙江省森林火险期火险状况的良好指标;1991-2011年,研究区森林防火期内可燃物湿度指标、火行为指标及火灾控制难易度指标总体呈增加趋势。其中,春季火险期可燃物干燥状况增加趋势较秋、冬季火险期幅度大,且已达到显著水平(P<0.05)。因此,加大该区的森林火灾防控工作,尤其是春季火险期的防控工作刻不容缓。展开更多
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31270695)the National Science and Technology Support Plan(2012BAC19B02)
文摘Daxing’anling is a key region for forest fire prevention in China. Assessing changes in fire risk in the future under multiple climatic scenarios will contribute to our understanding of the influences of climate change for the region and provide a reference for applying adaptive measures for fire management. This study analyzed the changes in fire weather indices and the fire season under four climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5) for 2021-2050 using data from five global climate models together with observation data. The results showed that the analog data could project the average state of the climate for a given period but were not effective for simulating extreme weather conditions. Compared with the baseline period (1971-2000), the period 2021-2050 was predicted to have an increase in average temperature of 2.02-2.65 °C and in annual precipitation 25.4-40.3 mm, while the fire weather index (FWI) was predicted to increase by 6.2-11.2% and seasonal severity rating (SSR) by 5.5-17.2%. The DMC (Duff moisture code), ISI (initial spread index), BUI (build-up index), FWI and SSR were predicted to increase significantly under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Furthermore, days with high or higher fire danger rating were predicted to be prolonged by 3-6 days, with the change in the southern region being greater under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5.
文摘基于森林火灾统计资料,采用加拿大森林火险天气指标系统(Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System,CFFWIS)分析了浙江省森林火险期内森林火险天气指标动态变化趋势。结果表明:研究区火险期内森林火灾发生次数呈递减趋势,但每场火灾的平均过火面积呈显著增加趋势(P<0.01);细小可燃物湿度码(CFFM)和初始蔓延指标(IIS)达到显著水平(P<0.05),可作为浙江省森林火险期火险状况的良好指标;1991-2011年,研究区森林防火期内可燃物湿度指标、火行为指标及火灾控制难易度指标总体呈增加趋势。其中,春季火险期可燃物干燥状况增加趋势较秋、冬季火险期幅度大,且已达到显著水平(P<0.05)。因此,加大该区的森林火灾防控工作,尤其是春季火险期的防控工作刻不容缓。
