Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） Sys- tem were used to ana...Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） Sys- tem were used to analyze changes to fire danger and the fire season for future periods under IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2, and the data will guide future fire management planning. We used regional climate in China （1961 1990） as our validation data, and the period （1991–2100） was modeled under SRES A2 and B2 through the weather simulated by the regional climate model system （PRECIS）. Meteorological data and fire danger were interpolated to 1 km 2 by using ANUSPLIN software. The average FWI value for future spring fire sea- sons under Scenarios A2 and B2 shows an increase over most of the region. Compared with the baseline, FWI averages of spring fire season will increase by 0.40, 0.26 and 1.32 under Scenario A2, and increase by 0.60, 1.54 and 2.56 under Scenario B2 in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. FWI averages of autumn fire season also show an increase over most of the region. FWI values increase more for Scenario B2 than for Scenario A2 in the same periods, particularly during the 2050s and 2080s. Average future FWI values will increase under both scenarios for autumn fire season. The potential burned areas are expected to increase by 10% and 18% in spring for 2080s under Scenario A2 and B2, respectively. Fire season will be prolonged by 21 and 26 days under ScenariosA2 and B2 in 2080s respectively.展开更多
The average temperature of northeastern China is expected to increase 2.22 and 2.55℃ under two scenarios selected from the Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）, i.e., A2 and B2, during the 2040s （2041-2...The average temperature of northeastern China is expected to increase 2.22 and 2.55℃ under two scenarios selected from the Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）, i.e., A2 and B2, during the 2040s （2041-2050）, which will have an impact on fire activities in those areas. We calculated the output of regional climate models, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） on a scale of 50 km × 50 km. Meteorological data and fire weather index were interpolated to a scale of 1 km × 1 km by using ANUSPLIN software. The results show that the model of Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies （PRECIS） had the ability to provide good temperature and precipitation estimates of the study area in the baseline period, by simulation. In the 2040s the mean FWI values of the study area will increase during most of the fire seasons under both selected scenarios, compared with the baseline period. Under scenario B2 the peak fire season will appear in advance. The changes of FWI ratio （2×CO2/l ×CO2） show that the potential burned areas will increase 20% under scenario B2 and lightly increase under scenario A2 in 2040s. The days of high, very high and extreme fire danger classes will add 5 and 18 d under scenarios A2 and B2, respectively. It suggests adapting the climate change through improving fuel management and enhancing the fighting abilities.展开更多
Daxing’anling is a key region for forest fire prevention in China. Assessing changes in fire risk in the future under multiple climatic scenarios will contribute to our understanding of the influences of climate chan...Daxing’anling is a key region for forest fire prevention in China. Assessing changes in fire risk in the future under multiple climatic scenarios will contribute to our understanding of the influences of climate change for the region and provide a reference for applying adaptive measures for fire management. This study analyzed the changes in fire weather indices and the fire season under four climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5) for 2021-2050 using data from five global climate models together with observation data. The results showed that the analog data could project the average state of the climate for a given period but were not effective for simulating extreme weather conditions. Compared with the baseline period (1971-2000), the period 2021-2050 was predicted to have an increase in average temperature of 2.02-2.65 °C and in annual precipitation 25.4-40.3 mm, while the fire weather index (FWI) was predicted to increase by 6.2-11.2% and seasonal severity rating (SSR) by 5.5-17.2%. The DMC (Duff moisture code), ISI (initial spread index), BUI (build-up index), FWI and SSR were predicted to increase significantly under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Furthermore, days with high or higher fire danger rating were predicted to be prolonged by 3-6 days, with the change in the southern region being greater under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5.展开更多
By using Julian Date methods,this paper studied the changes of forest fire occurring date during 1980～2006 in Inner Mongolia Daxing’anling forest region,as well as discussed the changes of fire season and forest fir...By using Julian Date methods,this paper studied the changes of forest fire occurring date during 1980～2006 in Inner Mongolia Daxing’anling forest region,as well as discussed the changes of fire season and forest fire regime under global warming.The results indicated that Julian Date of fires changed obviously,i.e.the fires Julian Date in spring extended into summer markedly,and at the same time summer fires were mostly caused by lightning fires.The Julian Date of human-caused fires did not evidently change.In recent some years,the forest fires occurred in summer actually exceeded the sum of fires occurred in spring and autumn.Consequently,the fire seasons are not only in spring and autumn,so long as the litter has not been covered by snow,forest fires possibly take place.In the future,under a warmer climate,the authors’ suggestion for forest fire management departments is to adequately understand these forest fire regime changes and make adaptive policies,in order to reduce the damage induced by forest fires.展开更多
基金support by National Science and Technology Support Plan(2007BAC03A02)National Natural Science Foundation of China(30671695)
文摘Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） Sys- tem were used to analyze changes to fire danger and the fire season for future periods under IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2, and the data will guide future fire management planning. We used regional climate in China （1961 1990） as our validation data, and the period （1991–2100） was modeled under SRES A2 and B2 through the weather simulated by the regional climate model system （PRECIS）. Meteorological data and fire danger were interpolated to 1 km 2 by using ANUSPLIN software. The average FWI value for future spring fire sea- sons under Scenarios A2 and B2 shows an increase over most of the region. Compared with the baseline, FWI averages of spring fire season will increase by 0.40, 0.26 and 1.32 under Scenario A2, and increase by 0.60, 1.54 and 2.56 under Scenario B2 in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. FWI averages of autumn fire season also show an increase over most of the region. FWI values increase more for Scenario B2 than for Scenario A2 in the same periods, particularly during the 2050s and 2080s. Average future FWI values will increase under both scenarios for autumn fire season. The potential burned areas are expected to increase by 10% and 18% in spring for 2080s under Scenario A2 and B2, respectively. Fire season will be prolonged by 21 and 26 days under ScenariosA2 and B2 in 2080s respectively.
基金supported by the Open Project Program of the State Key Laboratory of Fire Science,University of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. HZ2010-KF10)the National Key Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2007BAC03A02)
文摘The average temperature of northeastern China is expected to increase 2.22 and 2.55℃ under two scenarios selected from the Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）, i.e., A2 and B2, during the 2040s （2041-2050）, which will have an impact on fire activities in those areas. We calculated the output of regional climate models, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） on a scale of 50 km × 50 km. Meteorological data and fire weather index were interpolated to a scale of 1 km × 1 km by using ANUSPLIN software. The results show that the model of Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies （PRECIS） had the ability to provide good temperature and precipitation estimates of the study area in the baseline period, by simulation. In the 2040s the mean FWI values of the study area will increase during most of the fire seasons under both selected scenarios, compared with the baseline period. Under scenario B2 the peak fire season will appear in advance. The changes of FWI ratio （2×CO2/l ×CO2） show that the potential burned areas will increase 20% under scenario B2 and lightly increase under scenario A2 in 2040s. The days of high, very high and extreme fire danger classes will add 5 and 18 d under scenarios A2 and B2, respectively. It suggests adapting the climate change through improving fuel management and enhancing the fighting abilities.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31270695)the National Science and Technology Support Plan(2012BAC19B02)
文摘Daxing’anling is a key region for forest fire prevention in China. Assessing changes in fire risk in the future under multiple climatic scenarios will contribute to our understanding of the influences of climate change for the region and provide a reference for applying adaptive measures for fire management. This study analyzed the changes in fire weather indices and the fire season under four climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5) for 2021-2050 using data from five global climate models together with observation data. The results showed that the analog data could project the average state of the climate for a given period but were not effective for simulating extreme weather conditions. Compared with the baseline period (1971-2000), the period 2021-2050 was predicted to have an increase in average temperature of 2.02-2.65 °C and in annual precipitation 25.4-40.3 mm, while the fire weather index (FWI) was predicted to increase by 6.2-11.2% and seasonal severity rating (SSR) by 5.5-17.2%. The DMC (Duff moisture code), ISI (initial spread index), BUI (build-up index), FWI and SSR were predicted to increase significantly under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Furthermore, days with high or higher fire danger rating were predicted to be prolonged by 3-6 days, with the change in the southern region being greater under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5.
文摘By using Julian Date methods,this paper studied the changes of forest fire occurring date during 1980～2006 in Inner Mongolia Daxing’anling forest region,as well as discussed the changes of fire season and forest fire regime under global warming.The results indicated that Julian Date of fires changed obviously,i.e.the fires Julian Date in spring extended into summer markedly,and at the same time summer fires were mostly caused by lightning fires.The Julian Date of human-caused fires did not evidently change.In recent some years,the forest fires occurred in summer actually exceeded the sum of fires occurred in spring and autumn.Consequently,the fire seasons are not only in spring and autumn,so long as the litter has not been covered by snow,forest fires possibly take place.In the future,under a warmer climate,the authors’ suggestion for forest fire management departments is to adequately understand these forest fire regime changes and make adaptive policies,in order to reduce the damage induced by forest fires.
