Unsuspected implications arising from assumptions in simulations: insights from recasting a forest growth model in system dynamics

Background:Familiarity with a simulation platform can seduce modellers into accepting untested assumptions for convenience of implementation.These assumptions may have consequences greater than commonly suspected,and it is important that modellers remain mindful of assumptions and remain diligent with sensitivity testing.Methods:Familiarity with a technique can lead to complacency,and alternative approaches and software can reveal untested assumptions.Visual modelling environments based on system dynamics may help to make critical assumptions more evident by offering an accessible visual overview and empowering a focus on representational rather than computational efficiency.This capacity is illustrated using a cohort-based forest growth model developed for mixed species forest.Results:The alternative model implementation revealed that untested assumptions in the original model could have substantial influence on simulated outcomes.Conclusions:An important implication is that modellers should remain conscious of all assumptions,consider alternative implementations that reveal assumptions more clearly,and conduct sensitivity tests to inform decisions.

Changes in Environmental Parameters and Their Impact on Forest Growth in Northern Eurasia

We performed an empirical investigation of forest growth for two types of forests in northern Eurasia (larches and spruces) in order to show that the sensitivity of trees to the variable climate and geomagnetic field can be seen even under the large-scale average. The main purpose of this research was to model a forest growth rate V for each forest type on the basis of several environmental parameters influencing the tree growth in a high degree and to find the differences and similarities of the larches and spruces’ response to changing environment. We showed that V, which is related to the annual tree-ring width, could be derived from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. Averaged yearly by species for 1982-2006, it displayed a long-term decrease (most likely related to the global climate change) as well as short-term variations with periods of 2.2, 4 and 8 years. A composite function method was used for modeling. We selected several tree growth drivers (the temperature, precipitation, insolation and the geomagnetic field intensity) that were highly correlated with V, and a function was modeled that described the behavior of V. The correlation coefficients between the derived function and experimental time series were 0.8 for larches and 0.9 for spruces. Compared with spruces, larches demonstrated higher thermo-sensitivity. A loss of tree sensitivity to temperature changes is puzzling for dendroclimatology, as a similar process might have occurred during previous periods of sharp global climate changes (as observed currently). Sensitivity of trees to geomagnetic field changes is confirmed both at long- and short-timescales. Spruces are found to be more magnetosensitive than larches.

Model-Based Forecasts of North American Forest Growth: A Review

In the context of climate change, planning for forest management goals becomes more complicated. Possible changes in precipitation, temperature, and CO2 can affect tree growth substantially and potential effects differ by species and region. However, integration of potential forest growth responses to these factors can be achieved using models. Because of the need to understand the range of forest growth forecasts and the strengths and limitations of different modeling approaches, I summarized results from 25 studies of forecasted forest responses over coming decades. Some models used statistical relationships between tree rings and climate to forecast growth responses to future climate, some simulated net photosynthesis of a standard forest canopy, and many used tree or stand growth models at various levels of mechanistic detail. In general, models that included CO2 responses predicted enhanced forest growth by 2100 across most of the commercial timberland areas of the US and Canada. For modest warming, most models showed growth enhancement in most regions. For hotter scenarios, many models and regions showed even more growth enhancement, but some regions such as the Southwest, mountain West, and southwestern Canada were predicted to experience drought stress and increased fire incidence, although projections in these regions were variable. Young stands, angiosperms, and early-successional species were predicted to exhibit the most positive responses. As a result, commercial harvest ages might be accelerated by several years, depending on species. Some simulations for the Midwest and Northeast US predicted a doubling or more of net primary productivity although other studies show a lesser response. Model runs that did not include mechanisms of CO2 fertilization showed positive growth responses in only limited cases and generally showed growth declines. There also was some evidence indicating the potential spread of forest into woodland at shrub or prairie ecotones.

Recent tree growth decline unprecedented over the last four centuries in a Tibetan juniper forest

Forest structure and function are subject to risks of growth declines from intensified drought and frequent extreme events related to climate warming.Knowledge of tree growth declines will help anticipate future responses of forests to climate change.In this study,we investigated tree growth declines over the last four centuries in a juniper forest on the eastern Tibetan Plateau.By analyzing the radial growth trajectories of individual trees,we identified two events of intense growth decline,one in 1817–1830 and the other in 1969–1999 over the past four centuries.The intensity of the recent decline was unprecedented in the period under study.Ring-width chronology showed a positive correlation with self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Indices and a negative correlation with mean monthly temperatures in May and June.The recent intensified growth decline may have been due to temperatureinduced frequent droughts in the study area.Our findings suggest that trees in this juniper forest may face a higher risk of growth decline and even mortality under continued climate warming.

Carbon Stock of Larch Plantations and Its Comparison with an Old-growth Forest in Northeast China

The overall goal of this study was to understand carbon(C) stock dynamics in four different-aged Japanese larch(Larix kaempferi) plantations in Northeast China that were established after clear-cutting old-growth Korean pine deciduous forests. Four Japanese larch plantations which were at 10, 15, 21, and 35 years old and an old-growth Korean pine deciduous forest which was 300 years old in Northeast China were selected and sampled. We compared the C pools of biomass(tree, shrub and herb), litterfall(LF), and soil organic carbon(SOC) among them. The biomass C stock of larch plantation at 10, 15, 21, and 35 years old was 26.8, 37.9, 63.6, and 83.2 Mg/ha, respectively, while the biomass C stock of the old-growth Korean pine deciduous forest was 175.1 Mg/ha. The SOC stock of these larch plantations was 172.1, 169.7, 140.3, and 136.2 Mg/ha respectively, and SOC stock of 170.4 Mg/ha in the control of old-growth forest. The biomass C stock increased with stand age of larch plantations, whereas SOC stock decreased with age, and C stock of LF did not change significantly(P > 0.05). The increase of biomass C offset the decline of SOC stock with age, making total carbon stock(TCS) of larch plantations stable from stand ages of 10–35 years. The TCS in larch plantations was much smaller than that in the old-growth forest, suggesting that the conversion of old-growth forests to young larch plantations releases substantial C into the atmosphere.

COMPETITION IN OLD GROWTH KOREAN PINE FOREST

Korean pine(Pinus koraiensis) interspecilic competition and intraspecifie companioned with other species competition in old growth Korean pine forest in northeast China were studied using Hegyi's competition index model for individual tree.The results show that differences of competitive intensity exist in interspecific and intraspecific for Korean pine with an order of intraspecific ＞Abies nephrolepis Picea koraiensis Tilia amurensis Betula costat＞Acer mono ＞Ulnuts propinqua＞Populus davidiana,and that relationship of competitive index to indivdual size (in DBH) of objective tree follows closely multiplieate eqtuation and that competitive intensity gradually reduces with inereasing of individual size of objective tree, but it is tending towards stability after individual of objective tree inerease to specified size (DBH about 20 cm).It provided a serviceable approach for researches of intraspecific relationship in population ecology.

Growth models and site index table of natural Korean pine forests

According to the growth characteristics of natural Korean pine (Pinus Koraiensis) forests, 6 equations such as Chapman-Richards equation, Logistic equation, Power equation, and so on were selected to ftt for the growth modeIs for Korean pine forest. The growth models were developed based on 208 random trees and 24o dominant trees. Results show that the Chapman-Richards equation is the best model for estimating tree height by age and DBH, while the Parabola equation is fittest for predicting DBH by age or estimating age from DBH. The site index table of Korean pine forest was compiled by using the proportional method with the Chapman-Richards equation as the guide curve and vaIidated by accuracy test.

A meta-analysis of experimental warming effects on woody plant growth and photosynthesis in forests

Increasing field experiments have been conducted in forests to better understand the response of plant growth and photosynthesis to climatic warming. However,it is still unknown whether there is a general pattern in relation to how and to what extent warming impacts woody plants in forests. In this study, a meta-analysis was conducted to investigate the warming effects. When temperatures increased between 0.3 and 10 ℃, specific leaf area(SLA) was significantly increased by 5.9%, plant height by 7.8%, biomass by 21.9%, foliar calcium(Ca) and manganese(Mn) concentrations by 20.7% and 39.6% and net photosynthetic rate(Pn) by 9.9%. Enhanced growth and Pn may have a relationship with changing SLA, efficiency of PSⅡ(photosystem Ⅱ), photosynthetic pigment concentrations and foliar nutrients. The results will be useful to understand the underlying mechanisms of forests responding to global warming.

Structure and floristic composition of old-growth wet evergreen forests of Nelliampathy Hills, Southern Western Ghats

We analyze the structure and composition of old-growth wet evergreen forest of Nelliampathy hills, the chain of hills lying immediately south of Palghat Gap, in the southern Western Ghats of India. We sampled 30 plots of 0.1 ha each （50 m × 20 m） at six locations enumerating all plants ？ 10 cm girth at breast height. We pooled the data and computed various structural parameters. There were 152 species of 120 genera and 51 families of the study area. Of these, 118 （77%） were trees, 24 were climbers （16%） and 10 were shrubs （7%）. Species richness varied from 58–99 per 0.5 ha sample and Shannon indices of diversity ranged from 4.4 to 5.2. Fifty-nine per cent （89 species） of the species were Indian Sub-continent elements and 34% （51 species） are endemic to the Western Ghats. Fifteen species are listed in various threat categories. Aglaia and Litsea were the most species-rich genera. Numbers of families ranged from 27–43 per 0.5 ha sample. Euphorbiaceae and Lauraceae were the most species-rich families. Stand density varied from 1714 to 2244 stems·ha？1 and basal area from 53.6 to 102.1 m2·ha？1. The vegetation was dominated by 3–6 species and six dominance patterns characterized the species composition within the hill complex. The old-growth evergreen forests of Nelliampathy exist as small fragments rich in biodiversity and can be used as benchmarks for comparison with disturbed forests.

MORE ATTENTION TO PROTECTION AND RESEARCH ON OLD-GROWTH KOREAN PINE (PINUS KORAIENSIS) FORESTS

This paper reviews the researches on old-growth korean pine (Pinus koraoensis) forest in Northeast China. The ecological characteristies of the forest were summarized. According to the researeh results, the importance of studying and reserving on the old-growth forest was addressed, which were the indispensable research laboratory and classroom for forest managers. The conelusions indicate that the future of Korean pine forest management should be based on the research results of oldgrowth forests.

Estimation of a basal area growth model for individual trees in uneven-aged Caspian mixed species forests

The aim of this study was to estimate a basal area growth model for individual trees in uneven-aged Caspian forests.A survey was conducted in order to find a natural forest without any harvesting activities,a so called ＇untouched forest＇ and an area was selected from the Iranian Caspian forest.Three sample plots in the same aspect and of the same forest type were selected.In each plot,total tree height,diameter at breast height,distance of neighbor trees and azimuth were measured.Thirty trees were selected and drilled with increment borer to determine the increment model.Regression analysis was used to estimate the growth model.Results show that,for individual trees,there is a significant nonlinear relationship between the annual basal area increment,as the dependent variable,and the basal area.The results also show that the basal area of competing trees has a positive influence on growth.That the increment is higher with more competing neighboring trees is possibly because plots with higher volume per hectare and more competition,most likely also have higher site index or better soil or better site productivity than the plot with lower volume per hectare.

Structure, Tree Growth and Dynamics of <I>Cedrus atlantica</I>Manetti Forests in Theniet El Had National Park (N-W Algeria)

In North Africa, Cedrus atlantica forests are in decline, following decades of anthropogenic pressure and repeated drought events. Mixed C. atlantica-Quercus ilex stands located in the Theniet El Had National Park (northwestern Algeria) were considered in the present study. Based on a stratified sampling, six temporary plots were established to describe structure (species composition, density, total height, diameter and basal area) and radial growth in relation to type of stand (pure and mixed), using a dendroecological approach. The diameter distribution of C. atlantica indicated the presence of few young individuals and a poor regeneration status in all the stands. The density and basal area of C. atlantica were significantly higher in pure stands, which necessitate silvicultural operations. In contrast, Q. ilex showed a progressive dynamic, at moderate altitude. Radial growth showed a significant decline from 1980 to the 2000s. The absence of an appropriate management plan and the increase in anthropogenic effects, without ruling out a role for the current climate conditions marked by drought, seem to be the causes of C. atlantica decline.

Climate forcing of tree growth in dry Afromontane forest fragments of Northern Ethiopia:evidence from multi-species responses

Background: Climate-induced challenge remains a growing concern in the dry tropics, threatening carbon sink potential of tropical dry forests. Hence, understanding their responses to the changing climate is of high priority to facilitate sustainable management of the remnant dry forests. In this study, we examined the long-term climate-growth relations of main tree species in the remnant dry Afromontane forests in northern Ethiopia. The aim of this study was to assess the dendrochronological potential of selected dry Afromontane tree species and to study the influence of climatic variables (temperature and rainfall) on radial growth. It was hypothesized that there are potential tree species with discernible annual growth rings owing to the uni-modality of rainfall in the region. Ring width measurements were based on increment core samples and stem discs collected from a total of 106 trees belonging to three tree species (Juniperus procera, Olea europaea p. cuspidate and Podocarpus falcatus). Thesubsp. collected samples were prepared, crossdated, and analyzed using standard dendrochronological methods. The formation of annual growth rings of the study species was verified based on successful crossdatability and by correlating tree-ring widths with rainfall. Results: The results showed that all the sampled tree species form distinct growth boundaries though differences in the distinctiveness were observed among the species. Positive and significant correlations were found between the tree-ring widths and rainfall, implying that rainfall plays a vital role in determining tree growth in the region. The study confirmed the formation of annual growth rings through successful crossdating, thus highlighted the potential applicability of dendroclimatic studies in the region. Conclusions: Overall, the results proved the strong linkage between tree-ring chronologies and climate variability in the study region, which further strengthens the potential of dendrochronological studies developing in Ethiopia, and also has great implications for further paleo-climatic reconstructions and in the restoration of degraded lands. Further knowledge on the growth characteristics of tree species from the region is required to improve the network of tree-ring data and quality of the chronology so as to successfully reconstruct historic environmental changes.

AGE STRUCTURE AND SPATIAL PATTERN OF OLD-GROWTH KOREAN PINE FOREST IN XIAOXING'ANLING MOUNTAIN

Spatial pattern of trees, basal stem increment and height were examined in a 5.0 ha mixed deciduous/ Pinus koraiensis forest from October in 1984 to May in 1987. Conclusions arc as following: 1. Analysis of the age-structure of the korcan pine forest shows that it is different from general steady-state forest type. The lack of saplings and individuals in small-diameter class clearly indicates that regeneration is not continuous. Continuous regeneration depends on thinning of the canopy to form a gap. Similar-aged korcan pine seedings grow in these gaps. 2. The horizontal structure of the korcan pine is a mosaic of more or less even-aged groups of trees. The mosaic is a result of korcan pine by regeneration strategy. The aggregations of korcan pine of different ages overlaps to form a continuous population generation. As a results, the population is maintained in steady state.

Development and evaluation of an individual tree growth and yield model for the mixed species forest of the Adirondacks Region of New York, USA

Background： Growth and yield models are important tools for forest planning. Due to its geographic location, topology, and history of management, the forests of the Adirondacks Region of New York are unique and complex. However, only a relatively limited number of growth and yield models have been developed and/or can be reasonably extended to this region currently. Methods： in this analysis, 571 long-term continuous forest inventory plots with a total of 10 - 52 years of measurement data from four experimental forests maintained by the State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry and one nonindustrial private forest were used to develop an individual tree growth model for the primary hardwood and softwood species in the region. Species-specific annualized static and dynamic equations were developed using the available data and the system was evaluated for long-term behavior. Results： Equivalence tests indicated that the Northeast Variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator （FVS-NE） was biased in its estimation of tree total and bole height, diameter and height increment, and mortality for most species examined. In contrast, the developed static and annualized dynamic, species-specific equations performed quite well given the underlying variability in the data. Long-term model projections were consistent with the data and suggest a relatively robust system for prediction. Conclusions： Overall, the developed growth model showed reasonable behavior and is a significant improvement over existing models for the region. The model also highlighted the complexities of forest dynamics in the region and should help improve forest planning efforts there.

GROWTH EFFECT OF DAHURIAN LARCH-MANCHURIAN ASH MIXED FORESTS

With the method of stem analyses by the microscope, the xylem’s accumulations atdifferent ages were quantitatively studied using the data of typical plant association for Dahurianlarch (Larix gmelini Rupr) and Manchurian ash (Fraxinus mandshurica Rupr) mixed forests. Thedeveloping process for this important mixed forest type in the study area was systematically established. The result showed that in the artificial stand of Dahurian larch mixed with naturalManchurian ash. only those which have the same origin as Dahurian larch can grow up before theclosing of stand and form the components of the main layers. After 24 years seif-thinning, when theywere 29 years old, Dahurian larch would be at the stage of no self-thinning. At last the stand woulddevelop to the broad-leaved forests dominating with the Manchurian ash.

基于森林资源清查资料的盈江县森林生物量和生长量分析

为确定盈江县森林碳储量和碳汇潜力的变化特征及其影响因子,以便更好地分析盈江县森林生物量和生长量。基于盈江县2012年和2017年森林资源清查数据,利用生物量换算因子连续函数法和异速生长方程,评估盈江县森林碳储量和碳汇潜力的变化特征及其影响因子。结果显示:(1)盈江县森林生物量储量丰富,达85.55 t/hm^(2)。其中:栎类林最大,为168.3 t/hm^(2);核桃林最低,为7.10 t/hm^(2)。(2)不同林龄林分生物量差异较大,近熟林最高,其次分别为中龄林、成熟林、过熟林、幼龄林。(3)常绿阔叶林的林分生长量最大,其次是落叶阔叶林和针叶林。结果表明:盈江县森林生物量储量丰富且以阔叶林为主;林龄和年均气温是影响林分生长和生物量的主要因素。

森林生态系统服务多功能性:概念、指标和经营模拟模型

森林生态系统同时提供多种功能和服务的能力,被称为森林生态系统多功能性,可分为生态系统功能多功能性和生态系统服务多功能性。近年来,生态学领域对生物多样性与多功能性关系机理、多功能性驱动因子等进行了大量研究,这些研究持续成为热点。然而,这些研究成果在实际应用,尤其是在指导森林经营实践方面,尚显不足。森林经营一直以实现多种功能或服务的最大化为目标,但目前还缺乏与生态学中多功能性理论研究的有机联系,迫切需要将二者结合。本文对国际国内森林生态系统服务多功能性的概念、指标、评价方法、经营模拟和优化模型进行了综述,认为预测森林生态系统服务及多功能性、在森林经营单位层面实现多功能性最大化是将来的研究方向。因此,需要加强森林经营模型模拟研究,寻找减少不同服务间冲突、增加协同(即增加多功能性)的经营策略,回答森林经营和气候变化如何影响生态系统服务间的权衡和协调关系及其时空变化等理论和实际问题。

黑木相思家系适地适树品种综合评价

[目的]为选出适宜南方山地的黑木相思家系,揭示黑木相思长势土壤养分的空间分异规律与地形变化的关系。[方法]本文以杉木采伐迹地上营造的15年生7个黑木相思家系(M1~M7)为研究对象,采用经典统计学、描述性统计、地统计学方法和GIS技术,研究了7个黑木相思家系分别在不同坡位的土壤理化性质的变化规律和土壤养分的空间分布,并通过因子分析法和模糊评价法对7个黑木相思家系进行综合评价选优。[结果]7个黑木相思家系的理化性质在不同坡位的含量大多表现为下坡位>中坡位>上坡位,下坡位显著高于其他坡位;家系间土壤结构和养分含量均表现出M7、M6和M5较好;研究区各养分含量总体呈块状或条带状分布,呈现从东北和西北方向往南方向递增的趋势。[结论]综合评价值在上下坡位黑木相思家系M7值最高,其生长对土壤理化性质的改良效果最佳,在中坡位黑木相思家系M6最佳。研究结果对南方山地适地适品种和可持续发展研究具有参考价值,可用于黑木相思人工林经营管理实践中。

施肥对毛红椿幼林生长及叶片生理特征的影响

为了探究珍贵树种毛红椿对施用不同肥料不同用量的响应,该文以毛红椿幼林为研究对象,设置氮肥(N)、磷肥(P)、复合肥(CF)及缓释肥(SRF)4种肥料3个施肥水平(高、中、低),研究施肥对毛红椿幼林生长和叶片养分、生理的影响。结果表明:(1)施肥均可促进毛红椿树高和胸径生长,氮肥和复合肥效果更明显,氮肥处理的4年生毛红椿平均树高、平均胸径、平均材积较不施肥(CK)分别提高了15.0%、21.9%、67.5%,其中低氮肥(N1)处理的胸径年均生长量最大(2.99 cm),复合肥处理的平均树高、平均胸径、平均材积较CK分别提高了16.7%、19.2%、54.3%。高缓释肥(SRF3)和低磷肥(P1)分别在第4年树高、胸径的年增长量达到最大(分别为1.96 m、2.33 cm)。(2)施肥显著增加了毛红椿叶片叶绿素含量和非结构性碳水化合物含量,氮肥显著促进可溶性糖合成而磷肥显著促进淀粉合成。(3)N1和磷肥分别显著促进毛红椿叶片氮和磷含量的提高,磷肥、复合肥和氮肥均可显著提高叶片钾含量。(4)主成分分析结果表明,施肥促进生长效果依次为氮肥>复合肥>磷肥>缓释肥>不施肥,其中N1即100 g·plant-1·year-1的综合评价值最高。综合施肥成本和效益,施氮肥或复合肥能有效促进毛红椿幼林生长发育,推荐幼林期每年每株施100 g氮肥即可。该研究结果可为毛红椿造林初期林木养分管理提供参考。